2012 Defense budget outlook: The new certainty

Guest Article by Lou Crenshaw, Vice Admiral U.S. Navy (ret.)

The 2011 defense budget was characterized as a budget about uncertainty. Budget officials struggled to make ends meet in what seemed to be an endless stream of continuing resolutions (CRs), debt ceiling crises and impending government shutdowns. There was doubt about the continuing presence of U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and planners were uncertain about what a post-Iraq war presence would look like. Given the lack of clear guidance, future force structure levels were practically impossible to predict. DoD officials were also concerned about the loss of supplemental funding and how to accommodate the migration of baseline expenses into supplemental funds. The newly appointed secretary of defense, Leon Panetta, had presumably been appointed to oversee a massive defense budget restructuring. Given his reputation as a tough but savvy budgeteer, DoD officials were uncertain about how aggressive he would be; they were still stinging from the relatively modest cuts mandated by Secretary Gates. In short, it was a very difficult year for Defense Department planners and budgeteers to put into place any sort of long-term plan that would adequately address the security challenges facing the nation and balance those challenges with the fiscal needs of Congress.

The good news is that unlike in 2011, the Defense Department can bank on quite a bit of certainty going into 2012…

• The New Certainty
  
• The good and bad
  
• The big picture
  
• Five Defense Trends for Clients
  
• Prepare now for a certain future
  
• Additional Readings
  

Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle, Aug. 2011

(c) DJ Elliott

DJ Elliott is a retired USN Intelligence Specialist (22 years active duty) who has been analyzing and writing about Iraqi Security Forces developments since 2006. His Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle is an open-source compilation that attempts to map and detail Iraqi units and equipment, as their military branches and internal security forces grow and mature. While “good enough for government use” is not usually uttered as a compliment, US Army TRADOC has maintained permission to use the ISF OOB for their unclassified handouts since 2008.

This compilation is reproduced here with full permission. It offers a set of updates highlighting recent changes in the ISF’s composition and development, followed by the full updated ISF OOBs in PDF format. Reader feedback and tips are encouraged. Recent developments include:

The Missing Links: A Realistic Appraisal of the Iraqi Military

IA line battalions,
July 2011

Guest Article by DJ Elliott

Recently, I saw a comment that claimed the Iraqi Army (IA) is the best Arab army in the Mid-East. That it had been trained by the US in Corps- and Division- level operations, and thus was better than the rest of the Arab armies, since they effectively operate at only Brigade-level.

This is pure fantasy. The IA doesn’t have Corps and only started expanding divisional communications this year. Even the Iraqi Ministry of Defense never planned on the Iraqi Army being at that level of capabilities prior to 2020. Right now, the Iraqi military is only equipped and trained as a counter-insurgency force – and it will remain that way for a while. This article explains the Iraqi Security Forces’ planned stages of growth, the current gaps as they manifest at all levels, and some conclusions about the future…

• ISF: Plans & Visions
  
• Iraqi Security Forces: Current State & Gaps
  
• Conclusion
  

Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle, July 2011

(c) DJ Elliott

DJ Elliott is a retired USN Intelligence Specialist (22 years active duty) who has been analyzing and writing about Iraqi Security Forces developments since 2006. His Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle is an open-source compilation that attempts to map and detail Iraqi units and equipment, as their military branches and internal security forces grow and mature. While “good enough for government use” is not usually uttered as a compliment, US Army TRADOC has maintained permission to use the ISF OOB for their unclassified handouts since 2008.

This compilation is reproduced here with full permission. It offers a set of updates highlighting recent changes in the ISF’s composition and development, followed by the full updated ISF OOBs in PDF format. Reader feedback and tips are encouraged. Recent developments include:

Colt M4 Data Rights & The Individual Carbine Competition

M4 carbine, firing

Guest Article by Daniel E. Watters

On June 14/11, the US Army released a pre-solicitation notice for the procurement of approximately 70,000 to 100,000 M4 and M4A1 carbines in a best value competition (W56HZV-10-R-0593). This represents the first time that the procurement of the M4/M4A1 has not been limited to Colt Defense. How was this point reached, exactly what are the Army’s options, and how that may affect the Individual Carbine competition?

There’s still a very good chance that the competition for a new replacement rifle will meet the fate of previous competitions, and the Army will continue to buy the M4…

• The Infamous M4 Addendum
  
• What Second Sourcing Really Means
  
• The Individual Carbine
  
• Additional Readings
  

Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle, Jan 2011

(c) DJ Elliott

DJ Elliott is a retired USN Intelligence Specialist (22 years active duty) who has been analyzing and writing on Iraqi Security Forces developments since 2006. His Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle is an open-source compilation that attempts to map and detail Iraqi units and equipment, as their military branches and internal security forces grow and mature. While “good enough for government use” is not usually uttered as a compliment, US Army TRADOC has maintained permission to use the ISF OOB for their unclassified handouts since 2008.

This compilation is reproduced here with full permission. It offers a set of updates highlighting recent changes in the ISF’s composition and development, followed by the full updated ISF OOBs in PDF format. Reader feedback and tips are encouraged. Recent developments include:

Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle, Nov/Dec 2010

(c) DJ Elliott

DJ Elliott is a retired USN Intelligence Specialist (22 years active duty) who has been analyzing and writing on Iraqi Security Forces developments since 2006. His Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle is an open-source compilation that attempts to map and detail Iraqi units and equipment, as their military branches and internal security forces grow and mature. While “good enough for government use” is not usually uttered as a compliment, US Army TRADOC has maintained permission to use the ISF OOB for their unclassified handouts since 2008.

This compilation is reproduced here with full permission. It offers a set of updates highlighting recent changes in the ISF’s composition and development, followed by the full updated ISF OOBs in PDF format. Reader feedback and tips are encouraged. Recent developments include:

The Iran Sanctions Landscape & Corporate Risk Management

Guest Article by Mike McNamara, Michael Zolandz, Peter Feldman & Jeffrey Krilla.

Among many sobering revelations coming out of the latest Wikileaks document dump – another quarter-million pages of classified documents posted – is that absolutely everyone is worried about Iran. The confidential cables reveal the extent to which government officials, analysts, diplomats and heads of state fear that containment of Iran’s nuclear ambitions has become an insoluble problem. For businesses engaged in foreign trade, and defense sector businesses in particular, the Iranian conundrum only heightens the need to comply with reinforced sanctions against doing business with the Islamic Republic.

In this article, members of the Public Policy & Regulatory practice at law firm SNR Denton take a deep dive into the political and enterprise risk management issues surrounding Iranian sanctions regimes. Non-compliance is no small matter, regardless of how tenuous or arm’s length a company’s connections with Iran. “As the nature of risk evolves, it is critical that the way companies monitor and evaluate risk adapts to the new landscape.” Welcome to the brave new world of global compliance, where the consequences of even an inadvertent failure can be especially heavy for defense sector firms…

• Categories of Risk
  
• Best Practices and Global Compliance Strategy
  
• The Architecture of Iran Sanctions
  
• Category 1: United Nations Security Council Sanctions
  
• Category 2: European Union and Other National Sanctions Regimes
  
• Category 3: United States Sanctions
  
• The Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act (CISADA)
  
• Key Provisions: Banking relationships
  
• Key Provisions: Energy sector
  
• Key Provisions: Reports and Notifications
  
• Iran Sanctions Enforcement Trends
  
• Compliance Considerations
  

Pakistan Sales, Export Restrictions Hurt F-16IN Chances in India’s MRCA Deal

F-16IN concept

Guest Article by Srirangan S.

India’s M-MRCA competition is currently the largest and most lucrative fighter competition in the world. I believe Lockheed Martin’s F-16IN Block 60+ “Super Viper” offering will have a difficult time making past the shortlist of six. Other contenders vying for the USD 11 billion deal include Boeing F/A 18 Super Hornet, MiG-35, SAAB Gripen NG, Eurofighter Typhoon and the Dassault Rafale.

One major factor working specifically against the Lockheed Martin F-16′s is that it has been in operation in the Pakistan Air Force for decades. It is clearly an older, single engined platform compared to its competitors and just does not impress the Indian Air Force regardless of the media blitz launched by the Director of Advance Development Programme Mr. Michael R Griswold in New Delhi last week…

Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle 2010 09/10

(c) DJ Elliott

DJ Elliott is a retired USN Intelligence Specialist (22 years active duty) who has been analyzing and writing on Iraqi Security Forces developments since 2006. His Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle is an open-source compilation that attempts to map and detail Iraqi units and equipment, as their military branches and internal security forces grow and mature. While “good enough for government use” is not usually uttered as a compliment, US Army TRADOC has maintained permission to use the ISF OOB for their unclassified handouts since 2008.

This compilation is reproduced here with full permission. It offers a set of updates highlighting recent changes in the ISF’s composition and development, followed by the full updated ISF OOBs in PDF format. Reader feedback and tips are encouraged. This month’s developments include: