Airbus’ A400M Aerial Transport: Delays and Development

A400M rollout, Seville

Airbus’ A400M is a EUR 20+ billion program that aims to repeat Airbus’ civilian successes in the full size military transport market. A series of smart design decisions were made around capacity (35-37 tonnes/ 38-40 US tons, large enough for survivable armored vehicles), extensive use of modern materials, multi-role capability as a refueling tanker, and a multinational industrial program; all of which leave the aircraft well positioned to take overall market share from Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules. If the USA’s C-17 is allowed to go out of production, the A400M would also have a strong position in the strategic transport market, with only Russian AN-70, IL-76 and AN-124 aircraft as competition. To date, 174 orders have been placed by Germany (now 53 + 7 options), France (50), Spain (27), Britain (now 22), Turkey (10), South Africa (8), Belgium (7), Malaysia (4), and Luxembourg (1). Chile has expressed an unfinalized interest in 3 planes, but is now likely to buy Brazilian KC-390s instead.

EADS’ biggest issue, by far, has been funding for a project that is more than EUR 7 billion over budget. The next biggest issue is timing, as A400M delivery penalties and Lockheed Martin’s strong push for its serving C-130J Super Hercules cast a pall over the A400M’s potential future. The entire project was under moratorium for over a year as all parties decided what to do, but it’s now moving forward again. This DID Spotlight article covers the latest developments, as the A400M Atlas moves into production.

LAS in, LAS out: Counter-Insurgency Planes for the USA and its Allies

Winner

The USA needs a plane that can provide effective precision close air support and JTAC training, and costs about $1,000 per flight hour to operate – instead of the $15,000+ they’re paying now to use advanced jet fighters at 10% of their capabilities. Countries on the front lines of the war’s battles needed a plane that small or new air forces can field within a reasonable time, and use effectively. If these 2 needs are filled by the same aircraft, everything becomes easier for US allies and commanders. One would think that this would have been obvious around October 2001, but it took until 2008 for this understanding to even gain momentum within the Pentagon. A series of intra-service, political, and legal fights have ensured that these capabilities won’t arrive before 2015 at the earliest, and won’t arrive for the USAF at all.

The USA has now issued 2 contracts related to this need. The first was killed by a lawsuit that the USAF didn’t think they could defend successfully. Now, in February 2013, they have a contract that they hope will stick. The 3 big questions are simple. Will the past be prologue for the new award? Will there be an Afghan government to begin taking delivery of their 20 planes much beyond 2014? And will another allied government soon need to use this umbrella contract for its own war?

DoD Budget: Fiscal 2013-17 Highlights, Numbers & Unfolding Events

On normal years the US Department of Defense goes through a complicated-enough process to establish and finalize its budget. But whereas FY 2012 offered a welcome return to normalcy after a very long continuing resolution, the budgeting cycle for fiscal year 2013 unfolded in an unproductive, fractious political environment.

As fiscal year 2012 came to a close Congress bought time with a continuing resolution. And as the new civil year started, Congress begrudgingly applied a short-term patch to avoid the fiscal cliff, while the President eventually signed a FY13 authorization bill containing language he had threatened to veto for months. By March 2013 everyone seemed to capitulate to wrap up appropriations for the rest of the year. But FY13 appropriations ended up including sequestration, an outcome that few had predicted since the Budget Control Act was passed in 2011. The FY14 budget cycle then started late, with only dim hope of a more reasonable outcome.

Japan’s Next Fighters, From F-X Competition to F-35 Buys

F-35A

In December 2011, Japan picked Lockheed Martin’s new F-35A stealth fighter as its next fighter aircraft, to replace its aging F-4 “Kai” Phantom fleet. The F-35 was actually their 2nd choice.

Back in February 2006, Inside The Air Force (ITAF) reported that momentum was building within the USAF to sell the ultra-advanced F-22A Raptor abroad to trusted US allies, as a way of increasing numbers and production. Japan clearly wanted them, and the Raptor was a topic of diplomatic discussions in several venues, including a 2007 summit meeting. In the end, however, US politics denied export permission for downgraded export variants of the F-22, and its production line was terminated. That left Japan looking at other foreign “F-X” fighter options in the short term, while they considered a domestic stealth fighter design as their long-term project.

In the ensuing F-X competition, the F-35 Lightning II beat BAE’s Eurofighter Typhoon, as well as an upgraded F/A-18E Super Hornet from Boeing. Now Lockheed Martin has to deliver, and so will its Japanese partners. Will the F-35A’s price and program delays create problems in Japan? This article looks at the JASDF’s current force, its future options, and ongoing F-X developments.

Scorpene’s Sting: Malaysia’s Bribery & Murder Scandal

Malaysian Scorpene

The Franco-Spanish Scorpene diesel-electric attack submarine competes on the global market against an array of competitors, especially ThyssenKrupp HDW’s U209/212/214 family. In June 2002, the Malaysian government signed a EUR 1 billion contract with Armaris (now DCNS) and Spanish naval shipbuilder Izar (now Navantia) for 2 SSK Scorpenes and associated support and training. Both submarines have been delivered to Malaysia, though there have been some technical problems. Which pale in comparison to the deal’s other problems.

Within Malaysia, the sale has been compromised by an ongoing trial and set of legal actions around the public kidnapping and private execution of Mongolian modeling student, translator, and paramour Altantuya Shaariibuu. Full and impartial accountability for public figures is not a prominent feature of Malaysian justice, but French Journalist Arnaud Dubus added to the pressure with a March 5/09 report in France’s Liberation, “Un cadavre très dérangeant: L’étrange affaire du meurtre d’une interprète mongole qui gène le pouvoir en Malaisie” (Page 30-31). It named very prominent names, offered details, and revealed the contents of documents that Malaysian courts had refused to admit. A subsequent bribery investigation by French authorities has led to the emergence of even more documents, and the scandal is becoming a significant presence in Malaysian politics.

Russia Orders French Mistral Amphibious Assault Ships

RFS Vladivostok,
DCNS concept

In August 2009, Russian media reported that their country was planning to take a radical step, and buy a French BPC-210 Mistral class amphibious assault ship (BPC/LHD) by the end of 2009. The outlet quoted the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Gen. Nikolai Makarov, who said that: “We are negotiating the purchase of one ship at present, and later planning to acquire 3-4 ships [of the same class] to be jointly built in Russia.” That plan eventually came true, with a contract for 2 ships, and a possible follow-on for 2 more.

France currently operates 3 Mistral class LHDs, after buying a 3rd using economic stimulus funds. Unlike other LHD designs, the Mistral class can’t operate fixed wing aircraft, and some observers in Russia and elsewhere classify at as an LHA. Regardless, it’s an important tool of power projection. Mistral Class ships can carry and deploy up to 16 helicopters, including attack helicopters like France’s Tiger or Russia’s Ka-50/52. Their main punch revolves around 4 landing barges or 2 medium hovercraft, however, which deliver armored vehicles, tanks, and soldiers to shore. Vessels of this class are equipped with a 69-bed hospital, and could be used as amphibious command ships. Russia wants that kind of versatility – even as her neighbors fear it.

AWV 2014: Patria’s AMV is Sweden Next-Generation APC

Swedish AMV rollout

In June 2009, Sweden’s FMV defense procurement agency picked Finland’s Patria Oyj for a EUR 240 million contract, to deliver 113 AMV (Armoured Modular Vehicle) wheeled Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) to the Swedish Armed Forces. The 27 tonne AMV has a crew of 3, and can carry up to 9 soldiers. A varied set of turrets and modules can configure it for different roles, from MEDEVAC (MEDical EVACuation) through to IFV(Infantry Fighting Vehicle) or even automated mortar carrier duties.

By October 2009, however, a Swedish court had nullified the contract. Rather than waste time on appeals, the FMV red-did the “AWV 2014″ competition. In August 2010 they issued… a EUR 260 million contract for 113 Patria AMVs.

BAE’s Bribery Battles: Weakened Post-Settlement Investigations Drag On

BAE’s Hawk:
over the top

The UK’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) spent 6 years chasing BAE Systems, over allegations that bribes were paid to secure foreign deals in a number of countries. Bribes are the least of the allegations involved in some international defense deals, and contract wins without inducements would be far more surprising in countries like Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, and South Africa. Nevertheless, the UK does have laws to prevent British firms from paying them.

An SFO investigation into the giant Saudi Al-Yamamah aircraft deal was killed in December 2006 on national security grounds, after the Saudis threatened to cut off anti-terrorism cooperation and intelligence sharing. The government’s decision was upheld by the British House of Lords, but the SFO continued to pursue other reports concerning Chile, the Czech Republic, Romania, South Africa, Tanzania, and Qatar. The US Department of Justice, meanwhile, never let go of the Saudi deal.

In 2010 a settlement was reached that included the SFO – and the US DoJ, which got the lion’s share. A held-up deal with Tanzania then settled in early 2012. By 2013 this left an “investigation” in South Africa, and a Czech case with little apparent progress.

US Will Sell Global Hawks – Will South Korea Buy?

Global Hawk Cutaway

The RQ-4 Global Hawks isn’t a full successor to the famous U-2 spy plane just yet. It’s close, however, and some people have described the HALE (High Altitude, Long Endurance) UAV as the equivalent of having a photo satellite on station. Flying at 60,000 feet for 30-40+ hours at a time, the jet-powered UAV uses sophisticated radars and other sensors to monitor developments on land, sea, and air over an area of about 40,000 square miles/ 100,000 square km. Reported image resolution has been described as 1 foot or less. The USA has made effective use of Global Hawks since their formal unveiling in 1997, which has prompted interest from other countries. Germany has co-developed and inducted its EuroHawk version under a EUR 430 million program, and NATO’s AGS system will deploy Global Hawk UAVs as well.

Outside of NATO, however, sales have been much trickier. Four issues have worked to hold up potential sales – 2 of which are acknowledged openly, and 2 of which tend to play out very much behind the scenes. South Korea ran afoul of all 4 of those issues, when the USA rejected their application to buy 4 of the larger RQ-4B UAVs in 2006. Now, it seems, the tide has turned in the USA, but South Korea is less sure. What’s certain is that the USA will be fielding its own Global Hawks over the peninsula. What’s less certain is whether South Korea will buy some of its own.

Ferry Dust: Australia’s Light Aerial Transport Replacement

DHC-4′s final approach

Australia’s 2009 defense white paper made a wide range of commitments, one of which involved replacing the outstanding service provided by Australia’s gull-winged DHC-4 Caribou short takeoff light tactical transports. That particular project had been proposed and delayed repeatedly for over 20 years. In February 2009, the planes it was meant to replace finally had to be retired, after 45 years of service. Without a replacement.

There have been a range of competitions in this class on the international market. While some customers like US Special Forces have chosen Sikorsky subsidiary PZL Mielec’s M-28 Skytruck, most of these competitions are between Airbus Military’s C295, and Alenia’s C-27J Spartan. The Spartan is faster than the C295, and can carry larger and heavier loads, including light helicopters and patrol vehicles. The C-295M offers endurance advantages, and lower operating costs. Neither can match the Caribou’s short take-off performance, but they’re what’s available, and different countries have made different choices. Now, Australia has made its choice: a sole-source C-27J buy.