Lottery Forecasting And Metastatistics
Lottery draws are physically independent, leading most mathematicians to believe that draw history has no bearing on the outcome of a lottery draw.
"Lottery balls have no memory."
"Lotteries are a tax on the stupid."
Quotes like these frequently appear in the media. However an important principle is established by the Walter Penney coin-flip game: in a pseudo-random environment, it is possible to 'get something for nothing' based on sequences of results. The author has a convincing body of evidence which indicates that the metastatistics of the draw history have an influence on future draws. The data on this site is only a small fraction of that evidence.
A statistic is a measure. Statistics are sets of measures, and derivatively, the mathematical tools used to collate and summarise them. The prefix meta is often used to denote analysis of a subject at a more abstract level. In this context, the term metastatistics is used to mean the analysis of the dynamics of a distribution, both internal and external, rather than its static formulation. Hot and cold number systems are trivial examples of this use of the term metastatistics.
How can you use metastatistics to forecast the lottery? You can simulate a metastatistical forecast without using sophisticated mathematics.
"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration" (Thomas Edison)
The performance of the author's original metastatistically-based forecasts for the UK main draw is summarised below. The forecasts are generated using Quattro Pro spreadsheets. The author's original Excel spreadsheet corrupted itself over a period of several weeks, and when the author regenerated the forecasts in Quattro Pro, the opportunity was taken to go right back to the very first draw for the sake of scientific honesty, even though there are reasons for the forecasts to have underperformed at times. (A subsequent attempt to implement the spreadsheets in a later version of Excel failed because Excel was unable to cope with their size and complexity.)
A) Number of forecasts (excluding next draw)
B) Number of hits
C) Expected number of hits
D) Percentage hits
E) Expected percentage hits
F) Standard deviations better than expectation
G) Break-even point betting at a bookmaker with 6/49 odds of 6-1
And below are the forecasts for the next draw (subject to the disclaimers below):
Date of draw
13, 19, 26, 30, 33, 43
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Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2013
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2012
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2011
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2010
(Incomplete and incorrect - being regenerated)
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2009
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2008
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2007
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2006
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2005
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2004
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2003
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2002
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2001
Results of the metastatistical forecasts in 2000
Frequently Asked Questions
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Thanks to Richard Lloyd and his UK Lottery website
No thanks to Microsoft, whose virtual monoploy of PC software means they have no incentive to alleviate the limitations of their Excel Spreadsheet product.
No thanks to the British Broadcasting Corporation, who prefer to use UK National Lottery television programmes as free advertising space rather than show the draws taking place, and sometimes don't even allow time to note the numbers down.