As Western forces depart the region, New Delhi will need to act to translate potential into reality.
India’s political, cultural, and historical ties to Central Asia date back to antiquity. But contemporary circumstances, namely the quest for energy and the threat of terrorism, have imparted a new urgency, adding strategic realities to historical tradition. Indeed, Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid has said that India’s energy requirements are growing at a “terrifying pace.” Consequently, India’s government recently announced that it refuses to lay down a quota for importing oil (and presumably gas) from any country, including Iran. Instead, India will buy oil (and, again, presumably gas if not other energy sources) from wherever “it gets the best deal.” In this context it is even looking at the Arctic for energy sources. Not surprisingly in this context the Caspian basin is seen as an “important source” of hydrocarbons and ONGC is buying an 8.42% share of Conoco Phillips’ holidngs in Kazakhstan. It also is buying equity (albeit modest) in Azeri fields around the Caspian.
Yet despite the urgency for India, if not Central Asia, of strengthening those ties, India is failing to keep pace with its rivals, particularly China. New Delhi knows this to be true as does every analyst who observes its efforts in Central Asia. For example, despite the importance of the so-called TAPI pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India, no international firm is ready to finance the project. This failure occurs even though the U.S. supports an expanded Indian role in Central Asia, and the American presence vastly enlarges the political, economic and military space available to India. Indeed, Washington’s presence allows India to play, or at least aspire to, a greater Central Asian role than it could achieve on its own. Washington also counts on New Delhi playing an expanded role in Afghanistan and Central Asia as its troops depart Afghanistan.
While India plays a large role in Afghanistan, focused principally on building human capital and physical infrastructure, improving security, and helping the agricultural and other important sectors of the country’s economy, it nevertheless continues to lag China and Russia. India’s difficulties in Central Asia also confirm that, unlike Russia, China sees India as not just an obstacle in its own right, but as a U.S. stalking horse and continues to obstruct Indian efforts to enhance its presence in Central Asia. As we approach 2014 it seems clear that absent that U.S. role (and despite Russian support), China and Pakistan will probably succeed in checking India’s ability to project meaningful economic or military power into the region, including its ability to negotiate contracts for energy supplies.
Yet India certainly cannot depend on Russia to advance its Central Asian interests. Indeed, according to U.S. experts, India’s effort to refurbish and maintain an air base at Ayni in Tajikistan was quashed when the Tajik government told India that Moscow opposed any foreign bases there regardless of whom they belonged to.
India clearly needs a partner to be effective in Central Asia, while China does not, and China intends to exploit that advantage for as long as possible. Certainly China has far outpaced India to date throughout the region, regarding both energy acquisitions and the building of a long-distance transportation, trade and infrastructure network despite India’s rising wealth and power. China’s ability to compete successfully against India is visible in its accelerating consolidation of its own version of the Silk Road. Neither is this rivalry occurring only in Central Asia. The same process took place in the Sino-Indian competition that China won for a gas pipeline from Bangladesh and Myanmar to China rather than India. And Indian analysts worry with good reason about China’s increasing presence in the smaller countries of South Asia.
Photo Credit: Lee Hughes
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A Das
Colonialist America desires a divided and fractious Asia as ig foreign policy in order to maintain power and influence. It propagates the China “threat” to achieve this agenda. It remains to be seen what kind of character India is : A feckless, gullible and self centred “wife”, “mother”, “sister”, “daughter” , or “niece” to its Asian family members, or otherwise? Will it sell out its Asian family members just ingratiate itself with a candy offered by that hou d of a suitor -America – or it will not? Judging from the American’s moves, they view India as a weak link in the united Asian family against the predatory American advances. Honour or shame to the Asian family? That is a question for India answer.
Dewey Last [formerly But....]
Moreover, many scholars believe that India suffers from a congenital difficulty in thinking and acting strategically.
Ridiculous as is the premise of this article.
What this article fails to mention is the short transport to the Middle East energy sources versus China's long and tortuous one. I suggest the author look at a map.
Kanes
An India push to Central Asia will anger not just China and Pakistan but Russia too. Indo-Russian relations are in the decling phase while Sino-Russian relations are gaining momentum.
Three Chinese rail links to Europe through Central Asia will change the landscape in the region forever. These rail links are expetcted to be completed by 2018.
Taliban will be the major powerbroker in Afghanistan after 2014. India, Pakistan, China's ability to work with (not against) this fact will determine their role in Afghanistan. Chinese interests are not safe either. Pakistan is the key to reach out to the Taliban and will become a vital trade partner. Operation Enduring Freedom has not helped India's cause in anyway.
Considering all these, it is better for India to keep out of Central Asia.
nobody-somebody-anybody
Well,I think the author have a delusion of grandeur about India power, while it's true that India need to balance against China's influence I think India would be wiser to focus to the Southeast Asian countries than Central Asian countries. Historically India can and will influence southeast Asian countries and in fact many times countries in this region would welcome India, while since ancient times India historical memories always associated their north west border with invader and mistrust (and thus central Asian countries). The strategic and historical thinking of India about Central Asian countries simply isn't there, while Southeast Asian countries would be greater in India's thinking than elsewhere except South Asian itself. And it's Southeast Asian countries that contain greater chance of success and reward than faraway and geograpically isolated Central Asian countries, with the opening of Myanmar, antagonism of Vietnam and Philipines against China, India strategic goals would be much more easier in dealing in this direction. Remember that India's resources are limited and India can't afford to squander this on grandeur pursuit, especially with India's notorious bureaucracy (only yesterday I read how India Kilo's submarine sink by red tape and burdensome bureaucracy). So India better focus to engange in Southeast Asia that pursue The Silk Road that ultimately goes to The Broken Road.
Bankotsu
If India goes to central asia, it will only create more trouble for Russia and China. So for obvious reasons, there are people who would want to encourage this. What do you think about India going to the persian gulf or the states with an indian ocean coastline?
Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_Rim_Association_for_Regional_Cooperation
I also want India to enter the mediterranean and link up with the Russian mediterranean squadron.
Anjaan
Comparing India with China, the second largest economy on earth, that has been expanding its GDP on a double digit rate for over three decades, and sitting on over $2.0 Trillions of forex reserves, does not make sense and a waste of time …… !
Interestingly, it is only the British and the American analysts, and not the people in India, that carry out such comparisons …… for obvious reasons …..
TDog
India has consistently displayed the mentality that wishing for something is good enough. Successive Indian governments have been great at making bold proclamations and have been equally skilled at not following through with any of them. From their abortive attempts to be the leader of the Non-Aligned Movement to their stated goals of being the preeminent naval power in the Indian Ocean, India's leadership is just no good at implementing any of their policies in pursuit of their national interests.
Roger
The problem with India is its expansionist intentions. India doesn’t enjoy friendly relation with either of its neighbors. Starting from the fact that India hasn’t sincerely acknowledged the existence of her neighbor Pakistan, it has been creating problem for Pakistan since the beginning. It is deeply involved in internal matters of Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and has maintained a belligerent status against China. Meanwhile, separatist movements are virulent in many parts of India, thanks to draconian & authoritarian rule, as well as minorities in India feel very insecure at the hands of Hindu extremist groups such as RSS.
Anjaan
@ the Pakistani with an English name Roger,
India and expansionist ……. ??? …… LOL ……… India's history of thousands of years would not support this theory ….
Kanes
I agree.
For this reason the entire region is turning against India. I will not be surprised if Pakistan-Bangladesh-China and Sri Lanka come to a defence partnership to contain India. Without having a peaceful relationship in the South Asian region, India cannot extend its relations to Central Asia. Kashmir problem must be resolved to gain acceptance in Muslim majority Central Asia. BJP and RSS acts don't help either.
After troop reduction in 2014 it will be doubly difficult for India to reach to Central Asia. Declining relations with Russia in favour of USA also doesn't help it.
If war breaks out against Iran, a pro-US India will be totally unwelcomed in Central Asia as sentiments will turn hostile. All these are plus points for China-Pakistan.
Ali Sina
The problem with Roger and Kanes is Islam that disallows them to think rationally. Playing Taqiya here.
Rick
Some Indians' tendencies to blame Pakistani nationals for any criticisms on the Internet are tiring and show a lack of self-confidence. I hope most Indians reject these types of responses.
Kanes
These problems including attitudes are not likely to be resolved anytime soon as can be seen from latest developments. That is a huge advantage for Pakistan, China and even Russia.
Mishmael
The answer to India's problems is that it simply does not execute a coherent foreign policy. When one steps back and looks at Central Asia on a large scale, one sees China working with Pakistan and Russia and lthe Central Asian Stans to secure its own interests, while India gos at it alone. The fact is India does not have good working relationships with states in the region, nor does it have good working relationships with big powers in the region, and it has an openly adversarial relationship with Pakistan.
Despite all the "China threat" hyoe, China has successfully communicated its interests in a consistent and acceptable manner to the neighbors on its Western periphery. India communicates infrequently, and oftentimes incoherently. It also does, as the article notes, seem to be too closely aligned with the US to build up trust with countries in Central Asia, as well as with China, Russia, and Pakistan.
India seems to want contradictory things. It wants to ingratiate itself with "the West," while also building up relationships with China and Russia. It wants to fight "terrorism," but also wants to enhance its "image" in the predominately Muslim societies of Central Asia. None of this is necessarily impossible, but India has consistenly failed to make it work in the way China has. As it stands, I would think China has a credible and growing presence in Central Asian affairs while India does not. My one suggestion to India is to prioritize relationships with countries which actually can affect Indian security and economic prosperity. After all, only Pakistan and China have the capability to ensure peaceful borders for India
Bankotsu
"For example, despite the importance of the so-called TAPI pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India, no international firm is ready to finance the project."
IPI pipeline seems to be more realistic.
India Willing to Resume IPI Gas Pipeline Talks
http://www.lngworldnews.com/india-willing-to-resume-ipi-gas-pipeline-talks/