A Lose/Lose Outcome

In the most recent skirmish between a bullying Russia and a resentful but ultimately obedient Ukraine, none of the lines peddled by the Kremlin fit the facts. Ukraine is not an object in a dispute between Russia and “the West.” It is an independent actor in its own right. “The West” is a phantom enemy for the Kremlin, not an organized conspiracy. The EU has been compelled by both Putin and Yanukovich, in their different ways, to act with unusual resolution (by the its own low standards). But only a fantasist would insist on seeing the EU as an entity struggling to tear Ukraine from its natural home under Russian suzerainty. (Or perhaps that is unfair. Since Putin’s real aim is the political dominance of Ukraine, it is natural that he should attribute the same aim to others who, as he sees it, stand in his way.)

The idea that Ukraine would be a threat to Russia if it became a channel for EU goods to flood the country is also pretty bizarre. If Russia is so exposed to trade, why did Putin sign up to join the WTO? Would Russia’s economy really profit if Ukraine were forced into a protectionist Customs Union? Perhaps the Russian budget could afford the necessary subventions to Ukraine, but the result would be a marriage of problem sectors inherited from the Soviet past, not a newly thriving joint economy. The Russian economy is by far the larger and would be better off on its own. So would the Ukrainian economy if it were forced to begin to face up to its deep-seated problems. Creative destruction is better, in the end, than uncertain life support.

That is true for Russia too, of course, the difference being that in Russia’s case its variable life support is its natural resource sector. It is a commonplace that the future prosperity of Russia as well as Ukraine depends on moving on from a system based on understandings and personalized favors to one where clearly understood and independently adjudicated laws allow free enterprise to work its magic. Forcing Ukraine into the Russian embrace might serve the interests of those close to Yanukovich’s heart but it would hardly do anything to help combat corruption in either country—on the contrary. It would likely provoke a struggle for property in Ukraine as well.

Moscow already has problems with Belarus in its Customs Union, and Ukraine would be another difficult member, not a secure pawn in Russia’s effort to restore past glories. Its institutions are imperfect, to be sure, but at least it has some sort of governing mechanism, at least by comparison with those that have been emasculated in Russia. Moscow would have to build up personalized rule under Yanukovich to make Ukraine the partner that the Kremlin and many Russians imagine it ought to be, and which they suppose that in its heart it really is. If it worked, the process would further damage Russia’s own structures. If, as is more likely, it did not, the Kremlin might well find that it had imported a dangerous virus into its bloodstream.

The protesters in Kiev are therefore not fighting just for Ukraine, but for Russia too. If Ukrainians are not allowed to run their own affairs, and to hold their President to account, then chances are much lower that Russians will one day follow suit. Liberty is disruptive, and hard to achieve. But without it, no society can prosper. If the Kremlin can force Kiev into “friendship”, it will reinforce its current authoritarian mindset, but it will not serve Russia’s real national interests.

Kevin

This talk of Russia’s national interest is naive. There is
- Nick Koblov
  
  I dont think thats Putin really cares about liberalism, democracy and free speaches in Ukraine. He thinks about money. Yeah, Russia will resets old contracts with Ukraine with zero custom duties, because of changing their standarts to european ones. As for me, as a russian i really doesnt understand why should i pay my fees to Ukraine to became European country. I want thats my fees will go to medical care, to my parents pension…
  - Defenseur
    
    You’re right!..He thinks about money and this is very good. Because Russia has become a country with the lowest external debts and a surplus in the budget. Unemployment is not high.Pensions obtained earlier than anywhere else in 55 years. Scandinavian countries have the retirement age – 67 years(!). Of course the lower limit of the pension cost is only 200 euros. But this solution for several years. We have to think if Russia will not spend money on gas exports to Ukraine at prices lower than in Russia, pensions will increase.!
Александр Соколов

Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah
Elf

As always, a word about the fact that Ukraine has huge preferences from Russia, a word that in fact the Russian authorities virtually silent that Putin has openly declared that Ukraine let do what he wants …

Solid demagoguery and lies!
Defenseur

Very interesting what will happened to US reaction if Mexico will unite with China or Russia! It seems US will do everything to stop this process even it will be like democratic decission of people in Mexico!..Everbody in US and EU have to understand that Ukraine has different group of population that are devided historicaly – western ukranians who want to be in EU (very aggressive to Russia, often with Nazi ideology; eastern ukranians (mostly russian speaking), the biggest part, who wants to cooperate with Russia just because half of their families are still living in Russia territory; and south ukranians ( Jews and tatars) who also have very stable kinship to their relatives in Russia. And what will happen if EU and US will divide these families? It looks like there will be civil war!…And question!…Who from the world democratic countries wants the war in Europe?
- Cyril Sapla
  
  russan speaking is BY FAR not the the biggest. And being russian-speaking does not make them want to sell themselves off to Russia. They are most passive part of society – yes. They have never spoken themselves, only corrupt thieves are speaking in their nnames trying to benefit from Moscow.
  - Defenseur
    
    Of course, small groups do revolutions. Even the Bolsheviks were a small group that staged a coup. But even the Bolsheviks had puppeteers from the U.S. and Europe. Now, as you call “active part” is small part of people mainly from western Ukraine. So we also need to understand only – who are the puppeteers?)))
    - Sergey Golosun
      
      Guess Cyril belongs to “active part” )
      I probably belong to the “passive part” because have a well paid job. ) Think before you become a revolutionary must try to get an education
- Sergey Golosun
  
  Fully agree with Defenseur. I was born in South-East part of Ukraine where people speak only russian.
Sergey Golosun

Authoritarianism? Oh shit, attention! “Bloody Putin” is overhere
again. Hide the children, he eat them. “What the cooperation with
Ukraine should be in Moscow’s opinion? Hmm… Is it really your
business? Andrew, if you forget the stamps of your State Department
write honestly: ” Russia does not want to have our Libya scenario on
borders and does not want US bases around after that”.
Vadim Dementev

another blatant lie, Ukraine conducted many surveys and they show that in Europe and roughly flat against the number of citizens ‘democratic’ America always spit on those who are against its interests, democracy and freedom for you long dirty dirty tool to achieve their goals. Standard of living in Russia at eight times more than in Ukraine and of dissent no one and will not like you were not looking for it.
Nick Koblov

A single day of Russian president Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin:
6.00 Eating at least 100 Syrian childs.
8.00 Traveling to Kremlin and jailing 1k opposition members
9.00 Harming actions to US
12.00 Lunch – jailing at least 100 gays, 10 gays died.
13.00 Harming actions to EU.
16.00 Dzudo with european leaders.
18.00 Dinner. Hes reading some newspapers and closing over 100 indepenent mass media.
19.00. Harming actions to post USSR countries.
23.00. Going to sleep and killing a single journalist.
3.00. Some sweeties with stealng 1bln dollars for a next day.
- Sergey Golosun
  
  Entry for the article: “Hello dear zombies. I’m Andrew Wood and today I will tell you about the Bloody Putin and Guileful Russia ( or Evil Empire). Yes, I know you’re tired, but your brain has to remember that. Be sure we will check as you have learned the knowledge we will listen your phone and check your email box. So I begin to tell ….”
profaner vulgar

When the U.S. is fall to pieces ..
I amI will be happy reread such articles …
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
profaner vulgar

Yeah, did not know that the Nazi and fascist core of protesters on Independence fighting for Russia. But the west is probably best seen ..
profaner vulgar

What I’ve always moved by a spontaneous meetings, concerned citizens, this professional banners, posters and leaflets, printed the typographical way.
Only Aborigines had occupied Wall Street that there markers on a piece of cardboard to paint, probably all the money spent on posters “color revolutions” and the American revolutionaries did not receive
profaner vulgar

Ultimately, creative destruction is better than unreliable support life.

Terrible right idea! All ascetics of of science experimented primarily on themselves. You already have an example of Detroit. On stage in Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Washington – a huge scope for experimentation! So roll up your sleeves, shovel in hand, and – go ahead! Then share your experience.
Defenseur

Maybe someone is unhappy that China has already received a concession land in the Crimea for 30 billion dollars from the Ukrainian government? ..Imagine!.A huge Chinese industrial area in front of the nose of Europe! Maybe this is the reason of this new Maidan?