General Viktor Ivanovitsj Palivoda har bakgrunn blant annet fra KGB og den ukrainske presidentens sikkerhetsstyrke. Han mener bevisene for en russisk plan om å ta makten i Ukraina er klare. Foto: Arkiv
Ukrainian top general: There is proof of russian intervention in Ukraine
Uriks.no: In this exclusive interview, former KGB, and head of Security for the Ukrainian president, General Viktor Ivanovich Palivoda provides his unique insight in what is really going on in Ukraine.
Do you believe that the latest events in Kiev have been arranged from Moscow? (laws that prohibit peaceful protests, usage of guns and bullets etc.) What reasons do you have to make such statement? If not, then please explain why?
What is going on in Ukraine it is not something you believe in or not it is the matter of evaluation. You can doubt that police is actually using guns and bullets, but you cannot doubt that the government is deploying special military forces against peaceful citizens which do possess firearms – that is the FACT. Assassination cannot be accidental after two months of the standoff. Well-equipped special police forces that carry guns and other equipment do not confront the people while they are off the duty, don’t they?
According to the law of Ukraine, the police – is “a state armed force of the executive power authorities, which protects life, health, rights and freedom of the citizens, interests of the society and the state from any unlawful encroachments”. How can we speak about protection of life, health, rights and freedom of the people in the current situation? Shooting in order to kill people the police is executing the military task which is quite well paid to those standing in the first row. When policemen agree to participate in “protection” of the Maidan, they receive incentives such as added years of service while every captured protester is also good money to the wallet. And all this at the expense of those very people, kidnapped, tortured, killed and injured, their mothers and fathers, and others who suffered.
We can say that rubber bullets are not considered to be the onу used in military forces but you can kill someone with it too if shooting from the near distance. We can also doubt that a smoothbore gun may be considered a firearm and that police only used rubber bullets. So how the lead buckshot was found in the dead bodies is still not clear. What difference does it make for the fact that people died from confrontation with the police? These conclusions are to be made by the separate criminal investigation due to the death of people but whether such is going on or not is not known to the open public. The attorney general keeps silence for weird reasons while his primary job is to handle such investigations and to make sure that the police forces act in compliance with the law. The government is also waiting for something while its task is to control the actions of the police too. Police chief managers say they are sorry about what has happened and make statements about the official investigations but this is one and the same thing. The head of the country – the President, the one who is responsible for keeping up to the Constitution of Ukraine, the rights and freedom of the citizens does not give any comments about the situation, as well as the Representative of the Supreme Council of Ukraine on the human rights. No one is expecting punishment of those who caused death of people from the President but expressing his point of view on the events and judge them for the use of force – it is his duty. All of the above proves once again that the main lawbreaker in Ukraine is the government itself although paradoxically its major role is to protect human rights and freedom. Thus counting on the law, objectivity, fairness, conscience and common sense of the felons is naive.
The next example of the government’s crime against its own people is how they illegitimately passed the laws that contradict the Constitution in terms of human rights and freedom. It needs to be pointed out that article 22 of the Constitution of Ukraine states that “the constitutional rights and freedoms of the citizens are guaranteed and cannot be canceled. Passing new laws or changing the existing legislation may not change the content and the notion of the human rights and freedoms.” The Constitution which has the utmost legal power for the people utterly states that “human rights and freedoms are guaranteed and are of the main significance for the state and its functioning while protection of these rights is its major obligation.”
Thus escalation of the violence and the mayhem of the government on the whole territory of Ukraine are the consequences of the long-term state policy aimed towards destruction of the nation. Officials are so certain they are not going to be punished for their crimes that they are not even trying to cover those up. Theycan’tjudgeandpunishthemselves, right?
Therefore it doesn’t really matter whether assassinations or chasing peaceful protesters and other violations of human rights and freedoms are the results of the actions taken by the police forces or whether they have been executed by the special services of other countries. It has become obvious for all the Ukrainians that the government did not act in accordance with the Constitution. Moreover illegal actions of the police forces and officials brought it all to the bloody confrontation.
The problem here is not the nation - the only source of the legal power which in its majority accepts and respects the law and strongly desires to live in a lawful country. The problem is in the state and its officials and police forces that don’t follow the laws and are not going to. The state has turned from the one that is supposed to protect into the one that causes troubles, the enemy of the people. What if tomorrow citizens of other countries are going to be killed on the territory of Ukraine, such as USA, Germany, UK, Norway? What if those are not going to be random deaths but planned actions of third parties, other countries which cannot be diverted by the Ukrainian police and special force units? Who is going to be responsible for the possible sanctions against Ukraine – the President, the Ministers or the Government in whole?
The events in Ukraine are influenced both by internal and external factors. Saying about some scenario planned in Moscow is not quite true. Ukraine is the matter of interest not only for Russia taken its geographical and political location. It is the point of interests crossing of many countries and transnational companies which are not always in line with the interests of Ukraine. Ideally every country is supposed to serve its citizens. It is acceptable until the interests of the parties are not in conflict. Usually people negotiate in order not to enter the war. Ukraine is valuable not only because of gas transit, oil products and electricity but also its mineral resources, scientific potential and qualified workforce. The thing is that the government and the state say they act for and on the behalf of the people but in truth represents the interests of a few persons and clans.
Can the events in Ukraine be called as Russian strategic plan on destabilization of the country in order to give the reason for ‘help’ from the Russian brothers? If yes who is behind such plan and what are their goals?
There is no good answer to such question neither in your country nor in Russian. There is no way one could find out about the existence of such a plan as Russia keeps its secrets well. There are indirect indications and evidence though which once carefully analyzed allow us to come to certain conclusions. As a rule the notion of ‘destabilization’ is considered to be negative although it is worth thinking whether it always causes negative effects? Production and living standards decrease turned into permanent thing in Ukraine over the past decade. This led to population decrease nearly by 4 million, reduced level of education, culture, defense capabilities, industrial and scientific potential, spiritual downfall and degradation. Mid-level class which is the key of the European society does not exist as well as there is not a single indicator of growth which could be considered positive. Unfortunately, the extinction of the nation has gained stability, which frightens in its scope and consequences not only for Ukrainians. According to the Constitution of Ukraine, the State is responsible to the people for its activities and its results.Therefore the guilty for all what is happening are obvious, however the government and its institutions, officials do not repent of their crimes. Since the people of Ukraine are the only source of power and carrier of sovereignty the in Ukraine, they have the right to decide what to do next. The opinion of the discredited state ceased to have any importance and meaning. What is happening on Maidan is a final warning that people are no longer going to tolerate bullying and massive violations of their rights. Time of peaceful persuasion is over, it’s time to use the constitutional right of everyone to protect their interest and freedom from oppression perpetrated by the state.
It is crucial to point out that a Ukrainian is associated with the figure of an enemy of the modern Russian empire only because a Ukrainian has no will to follow “the Russian way” furthermore Ukraine wants to build his/her own future. Russia refuses to admit that Ukraine is a sovereign state. Even existence of so hated today state authorities is the matter of decision of the people of Ukraine. Any foreign support of the current government of Ukraine that has lost the confidence of his own people will be regarded as interference. This is exactly how Ukrainian citizens perceive the December negotiations in Moscow where Putin promised Yanukovych a “stabilization loan” and decreasing gas prices. If the president of Russia wanted to help the Ukrainian people why would he support the government that has lost the trust of the people of Ukraine?
The citizens of Ukraine accuse the government in failing to follow its constitutional obligations, mass violation of human rights and freedoms, a betrayal of Ukraine’s national interest, rampant corruption and huge embezzlement of public funds (billions of dollars), and Russia finances this criminal government openly with a credit without asking the people of Ukraine.
Russia can help with the settlement of crisis in Ukraine, “If we receive such a request from Kyiv.” This was the official statement from Russian Minister of Foreign relations Sergey Lavrov dated 21.01.2014. Furthermore he underlined, that ” the settlement of crisis” is possible only if “we are asked about it.” This means, that Russia is ready to begin immediate “resolution” of the situation in Ukraine. The only missing condition is Yanukovych’s request.
In what terms shall we expect this “settlement” and what exactly this “help” from Russia can be are not difficult questions to answer. And the reason is already there – protection of the gas and oil transmission system from Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, supplied to Europe. A threat to terminate the international agreements can be used not only as an occasion for blackmail, but also as the means of direct aggression. We should not forget about the ports, power lines,chemical plants,other dangerous objects belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs that might require an urgent protection from possible “abuse” of the Ukrainian people. Chernobyl can be brought into picture again, a series of explosions on the gas pipeline in Kyiv can be initiated only to scare the rest of Europe with man-made disaster. And all this under the guise of “sincere help” from Russia.
It is not a secret that Russian is trying to impose in Ukraine an idea of federalization. Why not to be consequent and offer reasonable financial and “gas” aid to legitimately elected constitutional subjects of direct democracy – local communities and authorities? Why any kind of “help” from Russia is offered always at some political and economical conditions? Why and the main thing at what price Putin is supporting the Yanukovych regime? The answer to this question is in the Yanukovych’s annual message to the parliament of Ukraine ”…the task of the strategic partnership of Ukraine and The Russian Federation is to ensure continuous and secure supply of the Russian energy by the Ukrainian gas transportation system to the countries of Europe and to optimize the conditions of oil and gas contracts signed with the Russian side”
How can one relate to the fact that the high-rank Russian officials and the official media find no other words for Ukrainians except terrorists and extremists and the attempt of the Ukrainian people to demand from the government to take responsibility and follow the law was described as mass disorders of the Ukrainian nationalists inspired by the overseas countries. However Russia refuses to see its own actions as interference into internal affairs of the independent state of Ukraine as well as it refuses to acknowledge itself as foreign country in relation to Ukraine.
The evidence of this is the statement of of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation dated 22 January 2014, that contained dual standards and no logic. Having acknowledged that the protest gain in scale, the Russian Duma allows itself to call in public the people’s movement in Ukraine “the attempt to depose the legitimate government institutions by force”. The Russian Duma also consider that “the representatives of the “extremist” part of the opposition, Western politicians, interfering in the internal affairs of sovereign Ukraine, are responsible for the deterioration of the situation in Ukraine” At the same time Ukraine itself has never came out with such statements.
How can one refer to the fact that the supreme legislative authority of the neighbor country cynically “warns against external pressure on Ukraine, imposing her geopolitical choice in favor of association with the European Union”. When has Ukraine hired Russia as it’s lawyer or lodestar? Mind about the Agreement of Friendship and Cooperation between Ukraine and Russia(1998). It says,”both countries have the sovereign right to determine their own destiny and will thus avoid economic pressure and blackmail”. Where does it say that Russia is entitled or authorized to act on behalf of Ukraine? There is a Memorandum on Security Assurances in connection with the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (1994) in which the Russian Federation, along with the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States are obliged to refrain from economic pressure on Ukraine aimed at subordination of Ukraine thus gain any advantage.
These are the documentary examples of how Russia fulfills its international obligations in regards to Ukraine.
Is there any evidence that the Russian and Ukrainian authorities agreed on “help”, intervention of Russia? When has this manipulation been started? In November, December? Now? Is it going according to their scenario? Maybe the scenario is being corrected as it goes? If yes, then why? Unexpected reaction of people or opposition? Or everything is being developed as they planned?
Such evidence does exist. As a heritage from USSR Ukraine has got Black Sea marine forces.In 1996 the Constitution was adopted in Ukraine, where art. 17 says that foreign military bases are not allowed on the territory of Ukraine.Since at the moment of adoption of the Constitution the Russian Federation marine forces was based in Crimea, the transitional provisions of the Constitution said the following:”the use of existing military bases on the territory of Ukraine for the temporary stay of foreign military units is possible only under condition of lease as it is specified in the international treaties of Ukraine”. In 1997, Ukraine and Russia signed a series of agreements under which it was determined the period of temporary stay of the Black Sea marine forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine (May 28, 2017). In April 2010, Viktor Yanukovych, violating the Constitution, signed an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, thus allowing location of the Black Sea marine forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine for another 25 years (with possible extension), starting from May 2017. This was done in exchange for price reduction for the Russian natural gaz. This is another example of violation by Russia of the Memorandum of guarantees of safety related to Ukraine’s joining of the Agreement of non-proliferation of nuclear weapon! By this we can see that the «help» in exchange of Russian military presence in Ukraine Putin and Yanukovich have agreed back in 2010, two months later after the inauguration of the latter.
Numerous cases of intelligence actions and sabotage by Russia had taken place during this period of time, the conditions of stay of the Russian Black Sea marine forces on the territory of Ukraine have been violated by Russia, brutal interventions into internal policy of Ukraine have taken place, the sovereignty of Ukraine have been encroached, the Ukrainian legislation has been ignored. The presence of the 20 thousand foreign military corpse basically unlimited in time is the factor of the permanent pressure of Russia on the domestic and foreign policy of Ukraine and constitutes a danger for its national safety.
So the intervention of Russia has actual real proofs. The events that took place over the past months takes under risk the ambitious plans of Putin as to providing unresisted realization of his interests in Ukraine and having total control over political headquarters of Ukraine. On one side Yanukovich doesn’t have another exit to take, so he has to seek support (protection) of Russia, and on the other side there are uncontrolled actions of millions of Ukrainians that make Yanukovich act funny and unreasonably. Putin understands clearly that the change of Ukrainian political elite will inevitably lead to the change of the character and of the content of the Ukrainian-Russian relationships and this change will not be favorable for Russia.
Bringing situation back to normal will require time, efforts and additional resources and Russia is not ready for this today. Regardless of the fact that Ukraine is an independent state, if Russia loses its influence on Ukraine it can not only have a heavy impact on Putin’s image, but also become a catalyst for other ex-USSR republics going out of control of the modern Russian empire. This is why Russia has nothing left to do but consider people’s manifestations in Ukraine as «mass disturbances”, acts of civil disobedience and other absolutely illegal actions. Yanukovich and left-overs of his group are afraid to become totally useless for Russia. The scenario of how things evolve looks even less attractive for the Ukrainian political elite. Even Yanukovich understands that freezing his personal (and family) assets and being banned to enter certain countries is not the worst. This is why his gang will be looking for other solutions for this situation; they will show willingness to have a dialogue, to find those responsible for deaths and make some rotation among the officials. Putin and Yanukovich agree on that, although they don’t trust each other.
Why West is being so careful with «Vova»? Which of their «sensitive buttons» does he know how to push?
It is quite simple. The well grounded interest of European countries to V. Putin has to do with the fact that Russia indeed has influence on many independent countries of the ex-USSR and also in the Arabian world. Due to his specific knowledge and forward-looking domestic and external policy Putin has managed to create an efficient mechanism to satisfy national interests that are based on a certain conglomeration of the great-power ideas of USSR and of imperial Russia. The big role in this story is given to the idealization of the history, to the creation of an image of a foreign and domestic enemy as a factor of consolidation of nations around one beloved and infallible leader. The head of the Russian state is taking support on the legal bodies and national security together with military units and this allowed him not only to make well-grounded decisions and provide efficient control on the accomplishment but also to exclude the emerging of political competitors. Western leaders see Putin as a person who is able to help them implement their interests on the territory that is under geopolitical Russian control and to do so on the base of agreement. Economical factors have major role in creation of such connections. Many foreign countries consider post-soviet space as raw-material base. In these times of energy crisis Russia is the main supplier of gas, oil and electricity for many countries that don’t have their own hydrocarbons. This is why such countries as Germany, France, Italy are very careful about their relationship with Russia. The countries with high energy potential like Norway see Russia as a competitor and a partner at the same time and they willingly invest into joint projects.
The geopolitical situation of Ukraine is of great importance in this case, because main pipelines that link Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Russia with Europe cross the territory of Ukraine. Creation of alternative channels to supply energy raw materials to bypass Ukraine is a long and costly process. This is why West is also dependent form the relationship between Ukraine and Russia. The best solution in this situation would be the joint use of the gas transit system of Ukraine by all the users on the mutually profitable basis, with or without Russia. But Putin is not happy with such solution, because he loses the chance to have one-way influence on Ukraine. If we take into consideration the fact that Ukraine is very rich in subsoil resources and hydrocarbons, that are not exploited because the «Northern brother» brakes this process artificially since 1993, it becomes clear why Russia is trying so hard to keep Ukraine under its influence. Ukraine has issued foreign governmental bonds of 10 milliards USD under guarantee of oil and gas resources. The project has not found its continuation because of Russian-inspired preliminary parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine in 1994 that brought to power Russian placeman L. Kuchma who started his activity by abolition of the issuer of the bonds and discrediting the whole idea of the economical independence of Ukraine. So, Russia has been providing its «brotherly help» since longtime and does it in a very insistent way, implementing its goals in Ukraine by corrupt national political elite.
Whose idea is to use bandits, prisoners (“titushki”) and other criminals to destabilize the situation? What was promised to them?
Initially the task for the so-called «titushki» was to demonstrate the aspiration of a part of Ukrainian people to join the Customs Union with Russia. The loyalty to the “senior brother” has been demonstrated many times by the Communist party of Ukraine, the civil-political movement “Ukrainian choice” and other organizations.
The events have started on the 21st November 2013 by peaceful meetings of supporters of integration with Europe under motto “Ukraine is Europe”. This action didn’t provoke any counter-action neither from supporters of Custom Union, nor from government. Everything seemed to be peaceful but early morning of the 30th of November the riot police department «Berkut» has «cleared» Maidan by means of brutal beating up of the peaceful protesters. After this event hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians from Kiev and from different cities of Ukraine came to the streets, both pro and contra eurointegration. This peaceful action has transformed into multimillion standoff between the people and the government, that looked like national liberation movement which goal was to restore the constitutional rights of people and to overthrow the power of oligarch clans. The attempts of the government to create direct standoff inside the people didn’t lead to anything. Even the governing «Party of Regions» does not have unity inside. This way the question of European integration went to the background. Nobody remembers it today, except for Russia. But the same «titushki» are actively used by the government in local standoffs with people. These are groups of provocateurs who get paid and these are mostly people without steady moral principles and very poor people who desperately need some money. They are not bandits nor prisoners nor criminals. Often they even don’t know who and why gathered them and what they will have to do. They understand what they got involved into only after they find themselves in the middle of some action. Sometimes police and other security service members dressed in civilian act as «titushki». And that is a crime. Of course different criminals got activated in this situation, but it has nothing to do with political requests and ideas of Maidan.
Who are «Berkut»? Why do they think that their atrocity is going to be unpunished? Why do they let themselves act like this against protestors?
When speaking about «Berkut» we need to understand that it is a special police department created on the January 16th 1992 by order of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Initially «Berkut» troops were subordinate to the regional department of organized crime fight under the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine (central organ of the executive power that runs police) this means that it was created to fight with organized crime. By the end of 1990s «Berkut» became a reserve of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine with operative subordination to the Department of civil security of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.
«Berkut» has a strongly pronounced military structure and currently consists of 1 regimen (Kiev), a few separate battalions (Kiev region, Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the biggest regional centers) with total of about 3 thousand people. Special troops are part of the Kiev regimen and Crimean battalion (these soldiers are trained to detain terrorists). The inventory of “Berkut” has tommy-guns, machine guns, pump action shotguns, silent shooters, sniper rifles, flash bang grenades, tear gas grenades and smoke grenades, communication tools, own motor pool and armored vehicles. The «Berkut» soldiers wear bullet proof helmets, bullet proof vests, knee and elbow guards, shields and other tools of passive protection, night vision tools, special tools (shockers, nightsticks, cuffs). “Berkut” crew consists of specially selected, physically fit, and well-trained young men aged 25-28. Until recently military service was the obligatory condition. They are specialized in areas: pyrotechnics, snipers, and divers. “Berkut” troopers participate in many special operations, including guarding high ranked officials, detaining of very dangerous and armed criminals. By fact it is a mobile highly paid and well-equipped military department that is called to perform to the following tasks:
- protection of public peace and order in difficult criminal situation areas, organization of mass events and in emergency situations;
- riot control and interception of group violence;
- detention of dangerous special offenders and armed criminals, hostage rescue;
- enforcement of police operations.
There is nothing special or illegal about existence of such a special police department. The problem is that there is no proper civil control over the activity of law-enforcement bodies in general and “Berkut” in particular. This allowed the government to misuse “Berkut” troops to forcedly suppress peaceful manifestations of people defending their constitutional rights and freedoms.
The bloody deeds of «Berkut» have a history. It happened during the orange revolution in 2004 and when the parliament of Ukraine was dismissed in 2007.On the 19th of August 2013 the «Berkut» soldiers have burst into the building of the Kiev city council and have severely beaten several people’s deputies. Illegal actions of «Berkut» took place during ethnic disturbances in Crimea in 1995 when they have shot dead two Crimean Tatars and wounded seven others. On the 27th of May 2007 football supporters have been severely injured during the football match «Dinamo» – «Shakhter», when some teenagers got severely wounded as well (photos and videos made Internet explode).
«Berkut» is being used lately to forcedly dismiss meetings and other actions of oppositionists of Victor Yanukovich. An objective evaluation of «Berkut» capabilities is that if there’s a relevant order, Maidan can be cleaned from demonstrators during some 3-5 hours. There could be a few reasons why it is not done yet, starting from hesitation of the top management and finishing by the need to take documental proofs of illegal actions. Naturally their participation to suppression operations, use of force that led to bloodshed and victims, absolute unaccountability and impunity, thoughtless following of criminal orders have led them to reject generally recognized moral values, to specific transformation of consciousness, to the corrupted understanding of the good and evil, to the “superhuman” cult. All of this also happened in this or other form in special departments of SD and SS of the Third Reich and was evaluated accordingly during the Nuremberg trial.
At the same time even when facing execution of illegal order, a soldier always has the right to choose and the chance to refuse to execute such orders. This is why the Law foresees criminal or disciplinary responsibility of a policeman for committing illegal deeds or omission. But were only private soldiers of «Berkut» responsible for committing a crime? It is evident that they have been the executors of the orders given by commanders of different levels and ranks. More over, the same Law foresees the control of the Cabinet of Ministers and the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine over the activity of police. Let us remember the President of Ukraine – the guarantor of respect of the Constitution of Ukraine, of the rights and freedoms of citizens. So not only the private soldiers of Berkut will be accountable for what is happening now!
Would it be possible for the Russian fighting services to appear at Kiev streets? Which circumstances should precede this?
Tanks, other military machines, and troops of Armed Forces of the Russian Federation cannot appear at Kiev streets out of nowhere. Such evident act of war presupposes existence of a serious conflict between Ukraine and Russia. No kind of Yanukovich’ appeal for aid to Putin can be the argument for bringing Russian troops in Ukraine. Moreover, in accordance with Budapest Memorandum on safety guarantees in relation to accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (1994), Russia must regard independence, sovereignty, and present boundaries of Ukraine; keep from threat of force or force initiation against territorial integrity and political independence of Ukraine; and never their weaponry must be used against Ukraine for any purposes other than self-defense, or any other way in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations. Any violations of the terms of the treaty fraught not only with deprivation of international standing, breach of relations with leading global political players but with relevant sanctions from Great Britain, the USA, and the UN. What good will that do to Russia? As it is, Putin knows that he’ll find a key to the gates of state power of Ukraine in any course of events.
It’s more likely that limited contingent of Russian troops will be sent to Ukraine in pretense of provision of security of strategic locations (like pipeline system, nuclear power stations, port and air facilities, etc), which capture by terrorists could have harmful effect in Europe scale. The most interesting thing is that here Putting can expect loyalty of Germany being the main consumer of gas from Russia and Russia’s strategic partner in Europe. The weakest link in this issue is the government of Ukraine that is to have the guts to impose a state of emergency and officially apply to Russia for aid. Concurrently, the question of Great Britain and the USA taking part in the process will rise beyond doubt. Besides, there is a restraining temporal factor connected to the Olympic Games. Russia will not go to the length of military invasion during the Olympics. Hence, it is unlikely to see Russian tanks at Kiev streets in the closest time.
Certainly, there are other possibilities. After a series of specially designed explosions (terrorist acts) at the main gas pipeline would take place resulting in nonthreatening damage and short-time interruption in Russian gas supply to Europe the government of Ukraine, with or without announcement of the state of emergency would apply to GASPROM for aid. As a result, private Russian militarized security formations would be brought at the territory of Ukraine and deployed along the gas pipelines. In case of success of the operation the same ‘aid’ could be rendered for provision security of other essential economic assets. It would become the ground for beneficial contractual relationships established between Russia and local authorities. The idea of federalization would take another form and practical implementation.
Is it possible that army men of Ukraine will be called to the streets of protesting cities? At which circumstances?
Armed forces and other military formations of Ukraine cannot be used for limitation of civil rights and freedoms, or with the purpose of constitutional order overthrow, government authority removal or interfering with their activity. Hence, any participation of Ukrainian army in confrontation between the government and nation is out of question. It’s not the army’s function. And therefore, purposeful appearance of regular military formations at the streets of cities is unlikely. It will be quite another story, though, if an external threat arises in the form of escalation by Russia its military presence in Ukraine, attempts for strategic facility seizure, border violation, etc. In this situation, not only Armed Forces of Ukraine but their separate units, too, can defend our country, even without an order from Kiev, mobilization proclamation, announcement of the state of emergency, direct order, etc. Such possibility is provided by the legislation. A classic war against the aggressor would start, with all that it entails.
Does the idea of a civil war being dinned into ears in Ukraine as well as in Russia and the West come from Moscow? What opposite forces will be? Are?
A civil war supposes arranged large-scale armed confrontation between fellow citizens within a state. At present, contestants of the existing government don’t oppose its adherers. There is armed confrontation solely between the unarmed public (improvised means cannot be regarded as weapon) and well-armed for the public money special operations militia units. Until contestants and adherers of the government meet in armed confrontation the civil war is IMPOSSIBLE. Even if the government engages other military elements and heavy armament against the people it will all the same be police actions, not a civil war.
In order to start a civil war, the both sides (i.e. contestants and adherers of the existing government) must create fighting units, arm them not with improvised means (like sticks, stones, bars), and even not cutting weapon (like knives, axes, or swords) but not less than small-weapon and start direct armed confrontation against each other, which will result in many human losses. If the government arms titushkas and throws them on peaceful citizens on this or that side in any case it will be a provocation not a civil war. It is remarkable that unarmed physical confrontation between contestants and adherers of the government is nowhere in evidence, too. ‘Maydan’ nowhereintercrosseswith ‘Anti-Maydan’! If the government inspires conflicts of titushkas under the pretense of armed confrontation of the sides it will result in unification of contestants and adherers of the government against titushkas first, and then against the government itself. For this reason, the threat of a civil war starting in Ukraine is improbable in contrast to different provocations of armed conflicts with significant material harm and human losses.
What is your opinion about Yury Lutsenko’s idea that Yanukovich was ready to sign the agreements with the opposition as early as on 21st of January but suddenly did a flip-flop?
I know nothing about this as well as the agreements themselves. V. Klichko, A. Yatsenyuk and O. Tyagnybok indeed state their opposition to the existing government which is slightly strange taking into account their parliament activity.
What is your opinion about the West reaction to the situation in Ukraine? How do you think should the West react in order to change it?
The situation in Ukraine indicates that the country is not ready for integration, neither into Europe nor into the Customs Union with Russia and is badly in need of aid in creation of state democracy institutions. Therefore, the West (I mean not only Europe but the USA, too) should not pretend that nothing is happening and allow further tension escalation.
In the context of the lack of confidence in state power institutions of Ukrainian people it is desirable to minimize official contacts and call to negotiations representatives of actual civic organizations and local authorities. In order to stop bloodshed, possibility of distrainment of accounts in western banks with the prospects of return of facilities to Ukrainian people (or newly chosen government) continues to be an ideal leverage on Ukrainian plutocracy.
Assessment of a situation in Ukraine must be objective, grounded on universal human values and democracy norms. If the Russian Federation keeps on intrusion into the internal affairs of Ukraine the West should be ready to react properly in accordance with Budapest Memorandum 1994 being a formal legal basis for this.
Under the circumstances of the long-running political and economic crisis, collapse of the public administration system, Ukraine will for certain meet the problem of the public life-support, maintenance of important economic assets. Short-time material and financial aid would be very much to the point.
To what degree Ukrainian and Russian Military Intelligence cooperate or cooperated?
According to the current legislation, intelligence agencies of Russia and Ukraine are subordinate directly to the Presidents of their countries. It is easy to suppose that V. Putin being a career intelligence official some time ago knows very well human intelligence possibilities, specifics, aim and goals. This is not true for V. Yanukovich. Hence, cooperation between the two MI is rather nominal than real.
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