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Cassandra

The World in 2014

  • Cassandra retires

    Forecasting farewell

    by M.S.L.J.

    WELCOME to the year of the horse. The Chinese calendar has run its annual cycle and Cassandra finds herself writing her final predictive post on the first day of China’s new year. Perhaps this is appropriate: according to Semisonic, “every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end”.

    Cassandra hopes that the year of the horse brings prosperity, as horoscopes declare it should. Signs so far are good: in recent weeks the IMF raised its forecast for global growth by 0.1 percentage points, to 3.7%. American and Britain are looking stronger than previously thought—though emerging markets are another story.

    Now, however, it is time to stop predicting and to start analysing.

  • Seer series

    Five restaurants for 2014

    by M.S.L.J.

    FOR her final piece on cultural delights to be enjoyed in the coming months, Casandra used her own experience (and that of friendly food writers) to write about restaurants. She hopes that her fellow forecasters have the good fortune at least to sample one of these eateries before the year is out.

    1. L'Enclume, Cartmel, Britain

    Simon Rogan is a chef wedded to innovation. L’Enclume, located in the Lake District, benefits from the produce of Mr Rogan’s nearby farm and from the efforts of his culinary research project, Aulis. The restaurant has no set menu and diners are welcome to feast on whatever is in fresh supply—plates may even vary between tables.

  • Apple

    Work in progress

    by M.S.L.J.

    A COMPANY whose advertising slogans are predicated upon change cannot afford to sit still for long. In the past week Apple, the American technology giant, announced that its revenues may dip when results for the current quarter appear in March—a phenomenon unseen since 2003.

    With the release of the iPod in 2001, the iPhone in 2007 and the iPad three years later, Apple has redefined the use of gadgets and gizmos around the world. But where to turn next?

    Some expect Apple to manufacture phablets, a species of seemingly oversized mobile phones (typically measuring 5.6 inches by 6.9 inches).

  • Sochi's winter Olympics

    Out in the cold

    by M.S.L.J.

    GAYS do not exist in Sochi according to its mayor, Anatoly Pakhomov. Such a claim, reported by documentary-maker John Sweeney, jars with the statement made by Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, that homosexuals would be welcome in the city during its hosting of the winter Olympics, due to start on February 7th. A law passed in June of last year banned the promotion of “non-traditional” sexualities to those under 18 in Russia, strangling the media and damaging gay rights.

    Controversy and corruption haunts Sochi: the $50 billion price-tag makes them the most expensive games ever held and many question where exactly funds have been spent.

  • Drug legalisation

    Hard talk

    by M.S.L.J.

    COLOMBIA’S president has used Davos to talk about drugs: Juan Manuel Santos spoke in the past week of the need for more research into the effects of legalising marijuana. The UN's former secretary general, Kofi Annan, and the Governor of Texas, Rick Perry, also questioned the punitive approaches taken against those who use dodgy substances. It is high time for such discussions. In December of last year Uruguay, another South American country, became the first in the world not only to legalise pot, but also to regulate its production and sale.

    Meanwhile, further north, the American state of Colorado opened 40 state-licensed pot shops on January 1st.

  • Biodiversity

    Now not never

    by M.S.L.J.

    CASSANDRA perused a new book this weekend, “Nature in the Balance: The Economics of Biodiversity”, edited by Dieter Helm and Cameron Hepburn. Even in early chapters, its revelations about the extent of biodiversity destruction around the world are concerning:

    “If current trends are extrapolated, then the scale of the current extinction will be as great as, or greater than the five mass extinctions that have occurred on Earth over the past 540 million years”.

    Governments must pursue credible policies, argue the two academics, to reverse the damage caused by humans in pursuit of food, fuel and financial gain.

  • Electric racing

    On your sparks...

    by M.S.L.J.

    HIGH speeds, famous stars, exotic venues: Formula E, a forthcoming grand prix for electric racing cars, has all the ingredients associated with more traditional motor sports. In the past week Britain’s Donington Park racing circuit, located in Leicestershire, was announced as Formula E’s £5.7m ($9.4m) new headquarters; ten teams are expected to be based there.

    One of those, Venturi Grand Prix Formula E, is co-owned by Leonardo DiCaprio. The actor is no stranger to environmental causes, and announced his involvement in early December (perhaps when no longer busy hosting outrageous parties in the guise of a Wall Street banker).

  • Youth unemployment

    Comeback kids

    by M.S.L.J.

    SOME plan novels, hiding away in their rooms. Others tutor teenagers, in need of help with their maths homework. The life of a twenty-something living at home is not always glamorous. A difficult job market since the financial crisis has stalled youthful efforts to move on up the pay-scale and, crucially, to move on out of the parental domain.

    Analysis released in the past week by Britain’s Office for National Statistics suggests that more than 26% of people aged between 20 and 34 live with their parents.

  • Seer series

    Paula Goldman

    by M.S.L.J.

    OVER the past 30 years the share of incomes going to the top 1% of earners has more than doubled in some rich countries: it now stands at 17% in America and 14% in Britain. Inequality is rife around the world, and new solutions are being proposed to tackle linked social problems. Paula Goldman from the Omidyar Network (ON), a philanthropic investment firm started by eBay’s founder, Pierre Omidyar, forecasts below a shift in organisations, and their employees, towards helping those in need through market forces. The growth of impact investing in 2014 will mean increasingly that social gains, and not just financial ones, arise from a company’s placement of capital.

  • Scotland

    Commonwealth countdown

    by M.S.L.J.

    TOMORROW marks six months until the start of the 20th Commonwealth games in Glasgow. Scotland’s largest city will see 4,500 athletes from 70 teams competing in 17 different sports, from judo to lawn bowls. Local excitement is already mounting for the event, as seen in the video above.

    Many also hope that the games will bring a needed boost to Glasgow: a decade ago the city was ranked as the poorest in Britain. Glaswegians also die younger than other Britons. A study by the Glasgow Centre for Population Health, reported in The Economist, found that between 2003 and 2007 there were 4,500 more deaths in the city than might have been expected given the age and poverty of the population.

  • The Rosetta probe

    Waking beauty

    by M.S.L.J.

    YESTERDAY evening, at 18:16 GMT, the European Space Agency’s Rosetta probe roused itself after two-and-a-half years of slumber. Its first words? "Hello World!" Launched a decade ago, Rosetta is part of a mission to put a robotic lander on the back of a comet, 67p/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, beyond the orbit of Jupiter, 800m kilometres away. Yesterday the probe began its race towards the comet, which it should reach in May—if events go according to plan.

    After Rosetta flies closer, November will see the launch of Philae, a small craft which will “harpoon” 67p/Churyumov-Gerasimenko so that it can pull itself down and drill into the comet’s interior.

  • Financial regulation

    Sheep of Wall Street?

    by M.S.L.J.

    YESTERDAY evening Cassandra found herself in the cinema, enraptured and appalled by “The Wolf of Wall Street”. The excesses of Leonardo DiCaprio’s character, Jordan Belfort, may bring overdue Oscar glory to the actor (who has been nominated for an Academy Award on three previous occasions). Office parties with entertainers in various states of undress, luxury yachts and a plethora of dollar bills dazzle on screen. Mr Belfort, satisfyingly for those tired with the capitalist cornucopia on display, gets his due in the end.

  • Forecasting flops

    Items not for the news

    by M.S.L.J.

    FORECASTING failures, crises and tragedies wins one few friends. Predicting the phenomena that will flop, against popular expectation, may attract even fewer—no one likes to hear “I told you so”. Nevertheless, the Eurasia Group, a political-risk consultancy, has released a list of “red herrings” for 2014, alongside its top risks to watch this year. Its herrings are trends that many think will be big news, but actually may not be.

  • Cultural forecasting

    Five wines for 2014

    by M.S.L.J.

    HORRIFIED at the jolly excess of the festive season, many people around the world are currently experiencing a “dry January”: no booze until February 1st. The Economist recently presented the case for raising alcohol prices through taxes levied on a drink’s strength (so that the most harmful drinks are more expensive). Cassandra wishes, however, to provide some light at the end of the tunnel for the abstemious, with a choice of five wines to sip (moderately) in the coming months.

    1. Vietti Rocche Barolo, Piedmont, Italy

    Barolo wines are from Piedmont, in north-western Italy, and their “tar and roses” scent comes thanks to the black-skinned Nebbiolo grape.

  • Tall towers

    Signs in the sky

    by M.S.L.J.

    THE state-owned developer of the Shanghai Tower, a 632-metre-tall building once rumoured to be opening in China this year (now more likely to throw open its doors in 2015), looks set to hire a leasing agent in order to fill the property with tenants. The step, reported in the Wall Street Journal, may be a sign that the developer is struggling to find tenants as China's economy slows. Neither of the two most recent tall towers to open in the city, Shanghai World Financial Center in 2008, or Jin Mao Tower a decade before, used such an agent. They both had claims to be China’s loftiest buildings at their time of opening, as the new Shanghai Tower may too.

About Cassandra

This blog accompanies The World in 2014, our almanac of predictions for the year ahead. It is named after the prophetess of Greek mythology

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