Recovery and summer are in the air, but doom mongers still lurk
The GDP growth figures announced last week for the second quarter of this year have sent most people away on their holidays in a cheerier mood than last year. The recent weather has certainly helped. But gloomy clouds may hover over the exclusive settings of Tuscan villas and beach houses in Martha’s Vineyard, where bien pensant commentators and so-called Keynesian economists ritually gather for the summer.
read more...»Developments in the UK Economy
This week has been a busy time for the UK economy. GDP growth data shows the UK is expanding but the level of output remains well below the peak achieved before the recession started in 2008.
The ONS has estimated that there was a 7.2% decline in real GDP during the downturn, around half of this has been recovered thus far. And due to population growth over the past five years, GDP per capita remains around 7 per cent below its peak in 2007
Our streamed presentation below tracks a dozen key charts and we have linked to some news reports on the UK for those wanting to keep up to speed with developments.
read more...»Unit 4: Introduction of Employment Tribunal fees as a supply-side policy
As of today, any employee wishing to take their employer to an unfair dismissal, unequal pay or sexual discrimination tribunal will have to pay a fee. This fee will not be automatically refunded on a successful tribunal outcome meaning that employees who are making choices about such an action have to be aware of the potential financial cost of such an action.
The government argue that this removes some of the burden of tribunal costs away from tax payers and should also reduce the number of frivolous claims made (and thus reduce a further burden on businesses). As such, you could claim that the tribunal fee represents a supply-side policy by the government - an attempt to improve the efficiency of the operation of businesses by reducing some of the red-tape that can stop a business working effectively (particularly small businesses).
Trade Unions are unhappy about the fee introduction. They argue that it reduces the opportunity for poorer workers (or unemployed people who have lost a job) to seek justice for what may have been unfair treatment. An evaluative argument here, therefore, might suggest that the tribunal fee acts as a barrier to fair pay, particularly in cases of discrimination.
Follow this link for some details as illustrated by the New Statesman.
Paul Ormerod: No free lunch. Defaults today mean less jam tomorrow
Potential defaults in the Euro zone have been in the news again. In Portugal, the ruling coalition parties and the main opposition Socialists have been unable to agree on a European Union-led bailout plan after days of talks. Yields on the country’s 10 year bonds have approached 7 per cent, compared to the 1.5 per cent in Germany. There has been some improvement this week on the news that an early general election has been avoided, but yields still remain over 6 per cent.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: China’s Great Re-Balancing
Here is another good resource for students who are looking at prospects for the Chinese economy as part of their macro economic studies. While the Chinese economy continues to slowdown, policymakers in Beijing are faced with the dilemma of how to rebalance an economy that till now has relied heavily on investment. The FT's Simon Rabinovitch reports from Guiyang. A re-balancing China will have to be a slower-growing China.
Follow the tags at the bottom of this blog for connections to all of our recent Unit 4 macro blog entries on China.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: John Kay on Quantitative Easing
John Kay looks at the lack of evidence for the effect of quantitative easing as a driver for economic growth. He is excellent on some of paradoxes of the impact of QE on the macroeconomy of countries where it has been tried.
The main effect of QE according to Kay is to boost asset prices and the one certain consequence of this is that those who have assets - such as homeowners and stocks and shares - will benefit.
We strongly recommend that ambitious students take a look at some of the other articles written by John Kay - check out his web site by clicking this link
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Costly child care hurts economic growth
Access to affordable comprehensive child care and schooling is widely regarded as being crucial to improving the incentives for mothers to actively search for and take paid work. Effective early years education also has a long run positive effect on employment prospects and is important as part of the overall supply-side capacity of the economy.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: IMF Report on UK Economy calls for Increased Investment
In its annual assessment of the U.K. economy, the IMF called on the UK to invest in skills and infrastructure and increase banking sector competition in order to foster growth and achieve a sustainable recovery.
The report can be found here and contains plenty of relevant background information on the current situation facing the UK - here is a selection of quotes from their summary
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Unit 4 Macro: Public Social Spending and the Welfare Cap
The UK Coalition government has introduced a controversial welfare cap - imposing a maximum on the total social security spending per year for each family. The welfare cap limits households to £26,000 a year. Couples and single parents receive no more than £500 a week in benefits, while the limit for single people is £350, although there are some exemptions.
The cap is designed to ensure that benefits payments do not exceed the income of the average working household and is designed both to cut total welfare spending and as part of a strategy of improving incentives for people to actively look for and take paid work.
Critics argue that a welfare gap does little or nothing to address deeper underlying problems such as the soaring cost of renting property and the lack of affordable child care.
Social spending varies greatly across different countries. The Economist live chart below looks at some of these differences.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Time Running Out for the Euro
Cambridge economist Mike Kitson argues here that the Euro Zone will eventually collapse after a number of difficult years. As pressure again mounts in the Eurozone leading Cambridge economist Michael Kitson says the euro might 'stagger on' for a few more years but eventually it will disintegrate. Policy makers have been papering over the cracks in the Eurozone and causing major problems for many member countries which are trapped by tight fiscal rules
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Innovation and New Sources of Growth
This short video from the OECD looks at the importance of knowledge capital as a key driver of innovation and growth for businesses and economies across the world. Innovation -- building on human knowledge - is booming, changing the way business invests and grows. As coal drove the last industrial revolution, software, databases, research and development, designs, new business models and the skills people bring to an organisation are driving revolutionary changes today.
read more...»Narrowing income inequality
For students' exam answers to be lifted from the ordinary to the higher levels, they really need to add some convincing evidence for their statements of theory. Here is a nice, simple report from the BBC of the latest figures from the ONS which shows what happened to household incomes in 2011-12, which would really fit the bill nicely.
In summary:
Average household income has fallen by £1,200 since 2007-8 in real terms;
Before tax and benefits, the average income of the top fifth of households was £78,000 and of the bottom fifth was £5,400 - a ratio between them of about 14:1
After tax and benefits these had changed to £57,300 and £15,800 - a ratio of four to one
Between 2007-8 and 2011-12, the average income of the top fifth has fallen by 6.8% and the bottom fifth has risen by 6.9%, so the gap between the two has narrowed (- note that the latest changes in benefits are not included as they took place after the end of the 2011-12 year).
All groups paid more in indirect tax in 2011-12 than in the previous two years, due to rises in VAT in 2010 and 2011.
Unit 4 Macro: Britain’s Shaky
Britain is growing again—but in perplexing and unsustainable ways - here is a discussion between two journalists at the Economist looking at recent developments in the UK economy - they attempt to dig below the headline figures on GDP to consider whether the ingredients are in place for a sustained, balanced and strong recovery over the next few years. The prospects do not look too good at the moment.
Unit 2 Macro: The Rise of Bitcoin
In this short news video, the FT's Maija Palmer reports from a Bitcoin conference on where the currency is heading including the use as a person to person medium of exchange. In technology savvy cities in the USA, there is no a bitcoin ATM that allows people to swap standard currencies for bitcoin credits. Will retailers latch on to the new currency?
Regulators seem wary about what Bitcoin is and how it might be used, fearing for example the use that might be made of anonymous and untraceable digital currencies for illegal money laundering by terrorist organisations.
Paul Ormerod: Always Look on the Bright Side
The American economic recovery carries on apace, with a net rise in employment of almost half a million over the past three months. The Office for National Statistics has decided that the UK never had a double dip recession, and the texture of the economic news has turned positive.
Transport Economics - Sorting out Transport in London
We link here to a recent lecture given by Professor Doug McWilliams at Gresham College that might be of particular interest to students and teachers who are taking the transport economics option.
London has some major disadvantages that would make any transport policy difficult. However, even given the constraints, the current policy mix is so far away from ideal that it could be costing each household about £1,000 more than it should if transport were to be organised rationally. The lecture outlines some proposals for transport reform in the capital.
Unit 4 Macro: How Demographics Drive Global Economics
We link here to a recent 45 minute illustrated lecture given by Professor James Sproule on the impact of demographic change on competitiveness and growth prospects for the UK and other economies.
Economic growth depends on productivity gains and changes to the workforce. With service sector productivity gains diminishing and baby boomers across Europe approaching retirement, businesses face crucial questions on how they will fare. What can be done to maintain levels of prosperity in the UK?
Unit 2 Macro: An Introduction to Trade
KAL, The Economist's resident cartoonist and animator, explains global trade
Bill Phillips’ (of Phillips curve fame) and the ultimate teaching resource
If, like me, you were fortunate enough to attend this week's myonlinecolleges Economics Teacher National Conference in London, I'm sure you would have been equally captivated by Tim Harford's talk on the life and times of Bill Phillips. It was fascinating to know that Phillips was so much more than just a downward sloping curve!
Changes in government spending over time
The Chancellor's review of public spending tomorrow will generate a wealth of articles and analysis - here is a nice one to start with. The BBC website has looked at how the proportion of total spending which goes to each department has changed since 2004, when government spending was last 40.5% of national income: this is the figure that the Chancellor is aiming at in 2017-8 if the government reaches its targets, and is a stark contrast to the 47.4% reached in 2009-10.
Unit 2 Macro: The History of Bubbles
A super resource from the Economist. KAL, The Economist's resident cartoonist and animator, explains the dangerous history of bubbles.
A bubble is said to happen when the prices of securities or other assets rise so sharply and at such a sustained rate that they exceed valuations justified by fundamentals, making a sudden collapse likely (at which point the bubble “bursts”). Typically this is seen in property markets where housing valuations can rise to unsustainable levels relative to income or long-run average prices. Speculative demand driven by positive price expectations has the effect of amplifying market demand and driving prices higher - especially when supply is restricted and unresponsive to short-term price movements.
Bubbles are common in other asset markets such as for stocks and bonds. And increasingly we find that world commodity prices exhibit bubble tendencies with high levels of volatility in the prices of foodstuffs, oil and natural gas and metals.
The bursting of a bubble - such as a collapse in property prices - can have important demand-side effects on wealth, confidence and aggregate demand
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Unit 4 Macro: China’s Transformation - The Long View
Dr Linda Yueh gave a fantastic talk at the ETNC on the growth and development challenges facing China in the years ahead. Here is a shortened version of a recent talk given by her at the RSA in London in April 2013. We have also streamed the contents of the presentation for those who want to follow the talk in more detail.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Kal Draws Dumping
Another great short animated video from the Economist - highly relevant to students looking at the economics of protectionism / import controls. KAL, The Economist's resident cartoonist and animator, explains what dumping means and why companines do it.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: The Economist Draws Tax
Here is a great short two minute animation that introduces us to taxation in different countries - courtesy of the cartoonist KAL from the Economist
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: King’s 10 Years at the Bank of England
With the help of animators from Cognitive Media, the BBC's Stephanie Flanders considers the record of Sir Mervyn King who has been the Governor of the Bank of England throughout the financial crisis - click here
The Guardian's editorial on his tenure at the Bank can be found here
RES Short: Decision Making in an Uncertain World
There is far more uncertainty in economics and policy-making than many would have us believe, according to Professor Charles Manski of Northwestern University. This RES Short Video introduces us to some examples of uncertainty in policy decisions such as the incentive effects of tax changes.
Paul Ormerod: Ignore Krugman: We’re not caught in another depression
SPOTTING and identifying new species is always exciting. And the last couple of years has seen the emergence of a new type of economic commentator, the recovery denier. Paul Krugman, the Nobel prize-winning economist, wrote a piece at the end of last year in which he compared the current situation to that of the 1930s. On Newsnight recently, another Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz poured scorn on my assertion that the US economy has recovered.
But what does the data tell us? In the 1930s, output in America fell by nearly 30 per cent from its 1929 peak. This time, the fall was only 3 per cent, and the level of output is now higher than it was below the crash. The latest US labour market figures show continued growth in employment. Over 5m net new jobs have been created over the past three years, all of which have been in the private sector. Unemployment has just fallen to a four year low.
Paul Ormerod: Trouble at the Co-op Bank
IT’S not all fun and games at the Co-op Bank. Just over a month ago, the bank was serious about acquiring 632 branches from Lloyds. Now its debt has been downgraded six notches to junk status, and veteran HSBC banker Niall Booker has been brought in as replacement chief executive after Barry Tootell resigned.
Inquests have begun, and it is only human nature to look for a scapegoat other than the large amount lost on the bank’s new IT system. Management has delved into its hat, and, hey presto, here is the old Britannia Building Society, merged with the Co-op in 2009. It is, we are solemnly told, the bad debts on the Britannia’s commercial property portfolio which are the problem.
Unit 2 Macro: London Gateway Super Port Prepares to Open
The scale of the new London Gateway Super deepwater Port is truly stunning and its importance to the economy as a trading nation is hard to underestimate - Britain will have a new world class hub port in a key location impacting on many trades and services in and around the South East and beyond. It has taken 10 years to establish and build this huge new infrastructure project, building eventually started in 2008.
Behind the port sits Europe's largest logistics park connected to the South east by road and rail.
This Financial Times news video looks at the background to the project - it is a good example to consider of the macroeconomic consequences of the investment. What price a new Thames Estuary airport (supported by Boris Johnson) to amplify the transformative impact in the years ahead?
read more...»Rise in the number of working women could improve the GDP of the UK and Japan
Students looking for a good example of a supply-side policy for improving the economic performance of the UK may be interested in this news article about how increasing the labour participation rates of women in the UK could lead to an increase in GDP by up to a staggering 10%. This growth could be achieved by encouraging the number of women wishing to provide their labour (or increase the provision of their labour) to the same level as men.
The common view now is that legislation is no longer good enough in itself to provide this encouragement. The Equality Act of 2010 combined the various equal opportunity laws together to penalise businesses that operate unequally. What appears to be needed is an improvement in the accessibility, availability, cost and quality of childcare facilities to allow more mothers to work (or work longer).
A further article (follow this link) explores how this principle is equally true of the Japanese economy. This article has a fantastic graph comparing the female participation rates for many of the major economies which might be a fantastic data example for teachers to use as a compare and contrast exercise.
As for the costs on society of such a policy....... That's a different question!
