By Kate Brannen

With Jonathan Topaz, Austin Wright and Philip Ewing

BREAKING OVERNIGHT: NATO AIR STRIKE KILLS AFGHAN SOLDIERS, via The New York Times’ Rod Nordland: “An American drone strike killed five Afghan National Army soldiers and wounded eight more Thursday morning, according to Afghan officials.

“The attack took place at 3:20 a.m. in the Charkh district of Logar Province, an area of intense insurgent activity.” http://nyti.ms/1cwH0CX

— ISAF CONFIRMS THE STRIKE AND OFFERS CONDOLENCES: “An investigation is being conducted at this time to determine the circumstances that led to this unfortunate incident,” read a statement from the International Security Assistance Force. “We value the strong relationship with our Afghan partners, and we will determine what actions will be taken to ensure incidents like this do not happen again.”

You can add today’s event to the long list of grievances that have soured U.S. relations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who continues to refuse to sign a bilateral security agreement with the U.S.

KARZAI’S BROTHER QUITS PRESIDENTIAL RACE, via The Wall Street Journal’s Nathan Hodge: “Qayum Karzai, the elder brother of the current president, announced in a news conference in Kabul that he would back the candidacy of former Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul.” http://on.wsj.com/1kAbYwr

THE LATEST ON UKRAINE: “E.U. leaders are to begin an emergency summit to decide how strongly they should respond to Russia's troop deployment in Ukraine's Crimea region,” reports The BBC. http://bbc.in/1mXOmni

The E.U. has already frozen the assets of 18 former Ukrainian government officials, including former President Viktor Yanukovych.

The New York Times’ Alan Cowell has more, reporting from London that, “The measures came a day after an effort by the United States to broker the first face-to-face diplomatic meeting between Russia and Ukraine failed in Paris, although Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, announced that more discussions would be held in the days ahead.” http://nyti.ms/1g2jr3H

— U.S. TO PLAY BIGGER ROLE IN BALTIC AIR POLICING MISSION: “The military is stepping up operations with European allies in the face of the Ukraine crisis, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Wednesday, but the administration will continue to pursue a mostly diplomatic and economic strategy as it tries to ‘de-escalate’ the standoff,” reports POLITICO’s Philip Ewing. http://politi.co/1hM5eIJ

At the request of its Baltic allies, the U.S. is augmenting its participation in NATO's Air Policing mission in the region and will increase joint training through its aviation detachment in Poland, Hagel told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Later, the Pentagon provided more details. It’s sending six additional F-15s and one KC-135 in addition to the four F-15s the U.S. is already providing. These aircraft — currently based at RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom — will be deployed to Siauliai Air Base in Lithuania.

Meanwhile, the State Department issued a list yesterday of 10 false claims it says Russian President Vladimir Putin has made about Ukraine. http://1.usa.gov/1eYdDZb

— A LOOK AT UKRAINE’S MILITARY, via Reuters’ Peter Apps: “Ukraine's senior military leadership served much of their careers in the Soviet Army with their Russian colleagues before the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Neither they nor their new broadly pro-western leadership in Kiev are keen to provoke a confrontation they know they cannot win.” http://reut.rs/1ndJ6IU

HAPPENING TODAY — THE SENATE IS FINALLY VOTING ON SEXUAL ASSAULT LEGISLATION, via POLITICO’s Darren Samuelsohn: “The Senate will hold two long-awaited votes Thursday on military sexual assaults, ending a chapter in the yearlong debate that has divided both parties while also creating some unusual bipartisan alliances.

“Back-to-back votes are scheduled to begin around 2 p.m. on the bills from Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.).” http://politi.co/1dus6Lw

— GILLIBRAND SCRAMBLED TO SECURE THE REMAINING VOTES SHE NEEDS: “Gillibrand, who counts the public support of 55 senators so far on legislation to remove the military chain of command from prosecution decisions, made a last dash for votes Wednesday by lobbying colleagues on the floor and passing out a handout backing her position,” Samuelsohn reports.

BRIG. GEN. JEFFREY SINCLAIR TO PLEAD GUILTY TO ADULTERY, via The Washington Post’s Craig Whitlock: “An Army general who is being court-martialed for sex crimes intends to plead guilty to adultery and several other charges Thursday but will continue to fight accusations that he sexually assaulted a female captain, according to his lawyer.” http://wapo.st/1cE1O5U

IT’S THURSDAY. So your Morning D correspondent got stuck in Charleston for a few extra nights, thanks to Monday’s snowstorm. Step away for a few days and what do you miss? The budget, the QDR and just a major confrontation with Russia. That must be some kind of defense/national security hat-trick. Please keep your ideas, defense tips, and any feedback coming by emailing kbrannen@politico.com and follow on Twitter at @k8brannen, @morningdefense and @PoliticoPro.

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THE DAY AFTER BUDGET DAY — THE HANGOVER SETS IN: The long slog of budget hearings began yesterday on Capitol Hill, with Hagel, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey and Pentagon Comptroller Robert Hale testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

— DoD BURIES THE LEAD IN A FOOTNOTE: CSBA’s Todd Harrison caught an incredibly important budget deal hidden away in a footnote in one of the Pentagon’s briefing slides from Tuesday. It turns out that even with the extra $115 billion the Pentagon is requesting over the next five years, it still can’t pay for an 11th aircraft carrier or a bigger Army. To pay for those, DoD would need sequestration done away with entirely.

“The FY 2015 FYDP only funds Army active end strength at 420,000, Marine Corps active end strength at 175,000, and does not fully fund the refueling and overhaul of the USS George Washington aircraft carrier, which would leave the Navy at 10 carriers,” Harrison writes. http://goo.gl/QjOlQD

This funding gap caused some confusion at yesterday’s Senate hearing.

— FOX HELPS EXPLAIN WHAT’S GOING ON: In a memo obtained yesterday by POLITICO, Acting Deputy Defense Secretary Christine Fox said the services are being asked to prepare for a sequester-sized force in fiscal 2016 and beyond — but should also program for larger force structures in case Congress provides the department some additional sequester relief in the coming years.

Pros can read the memo here: http://politico.pro/1lALTgQ

THE PAROCHIAL PARADE: Yesterday, we got a little taste of how lawmakers will push back against some of DoD’s proposed budget cuts. No surprise: local interests rule the day.

Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) said she’s opposes to the Air Force plan to deactivate an airlift wing based in her state. And Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), worried about the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, let it be known that she is no fan of another round of base closings.

The words of former Defense Secretary Robert Gates came to mind ... “I was more or less continuously outraged by the parochial self-interest of all but a very few members of Congress. Any defense facility or contract in their district or state, no matter how superfluous or wasteful, was sacrosanct,” he says in his memoir. http://on.wsj.com/1geow7e

SOME NUMBERS TO KEEP IN MIND: Budget season is awash in numbers, and it can be difficult to keep them all straight. So, here are just a few to keep in mind as they are tossed around willy-nilly over the next few weeks:

$496 billion is the Pentagon’s base budget request for fiscal 2015.

$79 billion is the placeholder number included in the budget for Overseas Contingency Operations (These days, that mostly means Afghanistan/). The final request will be smaller when it appears later this year, Hale said yesterday. It will pay for whatever U.S. troop presence remains in Afghanistan, plus funding to “reset” equipment and to support the Afghan National Security Forces.

$6 billion is how much another round of BRAC would cost, according to Hale. After that upfront cost, a new round of base closures would save DoD roughly $2 billion a year “in perpetuity,” he told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

8,000 to 12,000 are the numbers of NATO troops — the bulk of them likely Americans — the Pentagon supports keeping in Afghanistan after this year, Dempsey said yesterday. Of course, that’s if the bilateral security agreement is signed. If not, all U.S. troops could still be withdrawn, he said.

$26 billion is the Pentagon’s portion of the administration’s proposed $56 billion “Opportunity, Growth, and Security Initiative.” When are we going to know what exactly that money would buy? Next week apparently. That’s when DoD will submit “line item” details to Congress, Hale told lawmakers. We do know that about 40 percent of the defense portion would be spent on readiness, 40 percent on modernization and 10 percent on military construction.

SPEED READ

— Syria is stonewalling the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the U.S. says. Reuters: http://reut.rs/1ievDBJ

— The Pentagon doesn’t have a set plan for how it intends to use the $5.1 billion it has proposed for cybersecurity, according to the Pentagon comptroller. Defense One: http://goo.gl/ypVUb4

— A U.N. report says the Syrian government’s tactics are becoming even more brutal, with sieges and air strikes causing mass civilian casualties and starvation. The New York Times: http://nyti.ms/1mXSDqK

— Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.) criticizes the White House budget for cutting missile defense aid to Israel, but the Pentagon says Israel approved the proposal. Breaking Defense: http://goo.gl/jEkmFa

— A Marine Corps corporal who was wounded in a November 2010 attack in Afghanistan will receive the Medal of Honor later this year. Marine Corps Times: http://goo.gl/9HB1Rp

— The Veterans of Foreign Wars is lobbying Congress to scrap sequestration, calling it their top legislative priority this year. Army Times: http://goo.gl/KXsq9N

— Israel says it has intercepted an Iranian ship carrying rockets intended for Palestinian militants, causing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again to say that Iran should not be trusted. AFP: http://goo.gl/ovtVk3

— The U.S. appeals to the U.N. Security Council to take action against North Korea for its two recent missile tests. AP: http://abcn.ws/1hOnKjT

— China increases its defense budget for 2014 by 12 percent, sparking concern from Japan. AFP: http://goo.gl/UYjrPN

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