Poll
Should Ukraine join the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia?
At the Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum on February 27, experts of the Valdai Club presented a report entitled Toward the Great Ocean-2, or Russia’s Breakthrough to Asia. This study is a follow-up to the Club’s report Toward the Great Ocean, or the New Globalization of Russia, published in July 2012 and incorporates its conclusions.
Fifty international experts from Russia and the Asia-Pacific Region gathered in Singapore for the inaugural session of the joint project, entitled “Developing the Asia-Pacific’s Last Frontier: Fostering International Cooperation in the Development of Siberia and the Russian Far East.” The aim of the conference was to analyze practical steps of the recently adopted “go-east” strategy to develop Russia’s Far East and to strengthen Russia’s interest in the Asia-Pacific Region.
The Valdai Discussion Club Foundation, in cooperation with its partners, launched a new research project on Eurasian integration with a workshop in Shanghai on November 16-17. The aim of the project is to examine the entire Eurasian space in four dimensions and from four perspectives. The four dimensions are economic, political, security and social; and the four perspectives are Russian, Central Asian, Chinese and EU/US.
The report presented at the 11th Krasnoyarsk economic forum on the 27th of February 2014 is a follow-up to the report Toward the Great Ocean, or the New Globalization of Russia, published by the Valdai Discussion Club in July 2012, and is based on the conclusions drawn in that report.
Evaluating Russia’s development index during the annual poll this year, experts of the Valdai Discussion Club spoke positively about the country's growing role in national, regional and global security, foreign policy and soft power. Most negative assessment was given to performance of Russia’s political institutions, public confidence in them and the dynamics of economic development.
The research poll analyses five basic valuable aspects of contemporary Russian identity. In particular, the respondents were proposed to reflect over following principal aspects: culture, religion, ethnicity, self-identification, patriotism etc.
Released in 2013 by New York-based Regnery Publishing Inc., the book paints a rather gloomy picture of Russia’s future, claiming that in just a few decades, the nation as we know it today will cease to exist owing to a declining Slavic population, a growing and increasingly radicalized Muslim population, and an incremental invasion of eastern Russia by Chinese immigrants. As Newt Gingrich, Former Speaker of the US House of Representatives, argues in the book’s preface, “That reality should be the baseline for American thinking about strategic planning dealing with Russia.”
The book was released in English by Germany’s Springer VS Publishers, explores the changes that have occurred in Russia-China relations since the Soviet Union’s collapse and the new areas of cooperation that have developed since that time, including the energy industry and Central Asian partnerships. It covers 1991 to 2012. Based on Chinese sources and Western scholarly surveys, it may be of interest to professionals who specialize in Sino-Russian relations and in the contemporary geopolitical situation in Central Asia.
Issued in mid-2013 by the UK Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House. James Sherr studies how Vladimir Putin’s Russia influences the global political situation. Having dealt with this issue for years, the author watched how Moscow tried to regain its influence in post-Soviet republics and Europe. As a member of the Valdai International Discussion Club, he has repeatedly met with Putin during the club’s meetings.
Russia is clearly still a long way from anything that we are used to seeing in the West, but the Moscow Mayoral election, bizarre as its circumstances are, show signs of a step in the right direction.
It is obvious that Russia and Vladimir Putin intend to build pragmatic cooperation with all those ready to build relations on equal and mutually beneficial terms. China is a very conven-ient partner in this regard. There is no need to remind of all the assessments made by leaders of both countries during the course of their high- and top-level meetings.
The old world order has become completely ineffective and should be replaced with a new one. Mikhail Gorbachev, who announced the idea back in 1986, failed to accomplish this task. Vladimir Putin has returned to the crossroads to give it another try.
The truth is that Russia and the West share a common interest in a strong, prosperous and united Ukraine, albeit for different reasons. The West wants an ally that can exert pressure on Russia, which does not want a failed state on its doorstep. The new government in Kiev needs to accept de facto, if not de jure, that Crimea is effectively lost.
Changing how Mr. Putin thinks about the United States will probably be extremely difficult—he has now worked with three successive presidents, and has likely drawn his own lessons from the experience—but U.S. leaders should heed this warning to consider how U.S.-Russia relations may affect America’s ability to confront our nation’s principal strategic priority. As disturbing as Russia’s conduct in Crimea is, America’s primary focus must be Beijing, not Moscow.
The Crimea referendum has turned a page in the history of Eastern Europe. The actual process of Crimea's integration into the Russian Federation will take some time, but from now on this is a technicality. After all, hasn't Putin managed to bring Crimea back without a shot being fired? Sanctions come and go. Sevastopol will stay.
The timing and location of recent tactical exercises by Russian forces close to the Ukrainian border have aroused concern that they are the prelude to military action. In fact, they are part of a far wider series of battle drills and operational tests being carried out by the armed forces.
The composition of the fleet is currently inadequate for its missions. It has only a few old Soviet-era ships: one missile cruiser, three frigates, seven large amphibious ships, and one diesel submarine. It has not received any new combat ships since 1990, while almost all of its existing ships will need to be decommissioned fairly soon.
Today, there is a need to take note that the Eurasian debate itself is not a monolithic on the whole and in its various forms serves distinct purposes. What seems to be emerging in multiple visions where each region has its own perspectives.
The world order laid down by the Atlantic Charter was based on U.S. military and economic dominance. To all intents and purposes, Washington will maintain its military dominance for the foreseeable future. Economic dominance is another matter.
The damage to world order from Vladimir Putin's invasion of Crimea will echo for years, but one of the biggest casualties deserves more attention: the cause of nuclear nonproliferation. One lesson to the world of Russia's cost-free carve-up of Ukraine is that nations that abandon their nuclear arsenals do so at their own peril.
The well-organized Crimea operation suggests improvement in the quality and training of the Russian military. Their troops had operated with far less precision a decade ago in Chechnya and in the 2008 invasion of Georgia.
Some 6,200 German companies have set up branches and subsidiaries in Russia in recent years. According to the German Federation of Industry (BDI), they've invested more than 20 billion euros ($28 billion). That would be seriously affected if sanctions were to spiral between the EU and Russia.
Vladimir Putin has given us an important lesson in world politics. He has reminded us as to just how it is a run-through ruthless pursuit of self-interest. Over time, hegemons like the US or, before it, Great Britain, learn to disguise it and convince us that what they are doing is actually good for us.
Russia’s so-far united front with its negotiating partners the United States, China, Britain, Germany and France has been crucial in imposing sanctions on Iran to get it to the negotiating table. Now with Russia facing off against the United States over Crimea, there are fears the solidarity on Iran could break and encourage the Islamic Republic to become intransigeant.
The speed of Mr. Putin’s annexation of Crimea, redrawing an international border that has been recognized as part of an independent Ukraine for 23 years, has been breathtaking and so far apparently unstoppable. Certainly the sanctions imposed on Russia ahead of Tuesday’s steps did nothing to dissuade Mr. Putin.
A viable alternative to gas exports is releasing oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). These stocks are available today and could have a speedy impact on Russia. Such an action would have a quick and significant effect if the release depresses oil prices.