Despite public assurances by Western officials, concern is growing that the escalating animosity between the United States and Russia over the Ukraine crisis could have a corrosive effect on the nuclear talks with Iran.
Even before the Obama administration expanded the scope of sanctions on Thursday over Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, the Russians had sent signals that their retaliatory tools might include an altered position regarding the Iran talks, in which Russia and the United States are colleagues in the six-nation group negotiating with the Iranians.
Two days of talks in Vienna concluded on Wednesday, with another round scheduled to begin April 7. Both sides said the talks had been constructive.
But Russia’s delegate to the Iran talks, Sergei A. Ryabkov, the deputy foreign minister, hinted in comments reported by the Interfax news agency Wednesday night that Russia might link the Ukraine and Iran issues as part of its own diplomatic leverage with the United States and European Union.
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“We wouldn’t like to use these talks as an element of the game of raising the stakes, taking into account the sentiments in some European capitals, Brussels and Washington,” Mr. Ryabkov was quoted as saying. “But if they force us into that, we will take retaliatory measures here as well. The historic importance of what happened in the last weeks and days regarding the restoration of historical justice and reunification of Crimea with Russia is incomparable to what we are dealing with in the Iranian issue.”
Mr. Ryabkov did not elaborate on what kind of retaliatory measures were envisioned. But some experts on Iran sanctions said they would not be surprised if the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, took steps to revive delayed plans for a barter deal with the Iranians that would enable them to sell more oil, undercutting the pressure exerted on Iran by Western sanctions.
“I’m personally deeply concerned that the Russians are going to move ahead, if not with this deal, then some other sanction-busting scheme,” said Mark Dubowitz, the executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based group that has advocated tough sanctions on Iran.
“If you’re Putin and you think you’re going to be a target of sanctions, the most obvious leverage is in the Iranian file, where Russian cooperation is so important,” Mr. Dubowitz said.
The talks aim to resolve a decade-old dispute about Iran’s nuclear intentions, with the goal of reaching a comprehensive agreement in July. The six-nation group negotiating with Iran, known as the P5-plus-1 because it includes the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, wants verifiable guarantees that Iran will never achieve the ability to make atomic bombs, despite Iran’s repeated assertions that its nuclear activities are peaceful.
Some political analysts who have monitored the Iran talks said they were not necessarily troubled by Mr. Ryabkov’s remarks because Russia shares Western concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and wants the issue resolved.
“I think it’s bluster, trying to deter the kind of tough sanctions the U.S. announced today and the E.U. may impose tomorrow,” said Cliff Kupchan, the senior Iran analyst at the Eurasia Group, a Washington-based political risk consultancy. “Russia wants a deal on the nuclear issue — not a war in its backyard or an Iran with nuclear weapons. I think they’ll continue to play ball,” Mr. Kupchan said in an email.
At the same time, he said: “Putin is on a ‘political bender,’ taking abrasive and unpredictable decisions. He’s lashing out. I don’t think he’ll do it, but he could impede the Iran talks — despite Russia’s own interest in their success. So there is risk.”
A senior Obama administration official, speaking after the latest round of talks, said that so far there had been no change in Russian cooperation on Iran. Still, the official acknowledged, the Ukraine crisis was lurking in the background.
“I continue to hope that ongoing events in the Ukraine and actions that may be taken will not change that,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are delicate. “But I can’t tell you today for a certainty that will be the case because all the events happening in the world are not under our control.”