Only hardier species can adapt to global warming
Story submitted by Eric Worrall
Another claim that its worse than we thought – this time warmer temperatures are killing the bees.
According to Scott Groom, PhD student at Flinders University, mathematical modelling has connected changes in bee populations over the past 20,000 years across the South Pacific region, and exceptionally large declines in bee populations, with changes in temperature. Continue reading
This post provides an update on the progress of the evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño. Included are updates of the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the four most-often-used NINO regions. Also included are updates of the GODAS map-based animations of sea surface height anomalies, T300 anomalies (depth-averaged temperature anomalies to 300 meters), sea surface temperature anomalies, and the cross sections of temperature anomalies at depth along the equator. GODAS only includes the last 3 months in the animations at their website. These animations start in January 2014 for the full progress of the events.
We compared the evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niños in the third post in this series. The evolution of this El Niño is still being hyped by comparing it to the strong 1997/98 El Niño. See Kevin Trenberth’s YouTube video here. So I’ve updated those graphs. And since we’ve been watching the downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave as it makes its way east along the equator in the Pacific, also included in this post are evolution comparisons using warm water volume anomalies and depth-averaged temperature anomalies from the NOAA TOA project website.
Then we’ll take a look at a number of Hovmoller diagrams comparing the progress so far this year to what happened in 1997. This will serve as a background for a general discussion of what should happen next as this El Niño evolves, regardless of how strong this El Niño eventually becomes.
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Looking at a recent article over at Tallbloke’s Talkshop, I realized I’d never done a periodogram looking for possible cycles in the entire Central England Temperature (CET) series. I’d looked at part of it, but not all of it. The CET is one of the longest continuous temperature series, with monthly data starting in 1659. At the Talkshop, people are discussing the ~24 year cycle in the CET data, and trying (unsuccessfully but entertainingly in my opinion) to relate various features of Figure 1 to the ~22-year Hale solar magnetic cycle, or a 5:8 ratio with two times the length of the year on Jupiter, or half the length of the Jupiter-Saturn synodic cycle, or the ~11 year sunspot cycle. They link various peaks to most every possible cycle imaginable, except perhaps my momma’s motor-cycle … here’s their graphic:
Figure 1. Graphic republished at Tallbloke’s Talkshop, originally from the Cycles Research Institute.
First off, I have to say that their technique of removing a peak and voila, “finding” another peak is mondo sketchy on my planet. But setting that aside, I decided to investigate their claims. Let’s start at the natural starting point—by looking at the CET data itself.
The clear, near zero, lack of interest in this show should be a clear signal to the Obama administration regarding their global warming agenda – nobody is buying it.
We wrote about this before, how reruns of the animated show Bob’s Burgers beat this multi-million dollar budget climate disaster epic.
It isn’t getting any better, like global warming for the last 17 years, the ratings of ‘Years of Living Dangerously’ is flat.
ShowBuzz writes about the Sunday, April 27th TV ratings: Continue reading
From The Hockey Schtick:
A paper under discussion for Earth System Dynamics finds the transient climate response [TCR] to CO2 is 1.3°C per doubling of CO2 levels, about 35% less than claimed by the IPCC mean estimate and the same as determined by another recent paper by Otto et al finding a TCR of 1.3°C.
The authors say: Continue reading
National Climate Assessment Report Raises False Alarm
By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger
The Obama Administration’s just-released National Climate Assessment report leaves the impression that if we don’t quickly launch into action to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases (primarily by shifting away from using fossil fuels), we will be inundated by an endless flow of misfortune unleashed by the ensuing climate change. The flood has already begun.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Continue reading
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, 8 May 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during summer.
ENSO-neutral continued during April 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) developing over much of the eastern tropical Pacific as well as persisting near the International Date Line (Fig. 1).
[Note: part of the answer is in the photo they provide with the press release below, but they don't see it. - Anthony]
Greenland melting due equally to global warming, natural variations
The rapid melting of Greenland glaciers is captured in the documentary “Chasing Ice.” The retreat of the ice edge from one year to the next sends more water into the sea.
Now University of Washington atmospheric scientists have estimated that up to half of the recent warming in Greenland and surrounding areas may be due to climate variations that originate in the tropical Pacific and are not connected with the overall warming of the planet. Still, at least half the warming remains attributable to global warming caused by rising carbon dioxide emissions. The paper is published May 8 in Nature.
Greenland and parts of neighboring Canada have experienced some of the most extreme warming since 1979, at a rate of about 1 degree Celsius per decade, or several times the global average. Continue reading
CEI Files Lawsuit against Office of Science and Technology Policy
The Competitive Enterprise Institute has sued the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy to produce the work-related emails of its director, John Holdren, that were sent from a private email account and thus hidden from the Freedom of Information Act and archiving laws.
The lawsuit alleges that Holdren used an email account from his former employer Woods Hole Research Center, an environmental advocacy group.
From the American Chemical Society
WASHINGTON, May 7, 2014 — Yesterday’s release of the third National Climate Assessment (NCA) should serve as a claxon [SIC] call for policymakers and the general public to take action to address and mitigate the observable and documented adverse climate disruption impacts being observed in every region and key economic sector of the United States.
These impacts, which have been observed and measured, are wreaking havoc with our society. This is a not a theoretical assessment; this report cites changes we are all observing and with which we are living. The future climate trends outlined in the report are even more dire. We should all be deeply concerned.
From the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Free Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) systems, like this one at the University of Illinois, allow researchers to simulate future atmospheric conditions to determine their effects on plants.
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Researchers have some bad news for future farmers and eaters: As carbon dioxide levels rise this century, some grains and legumes will become significantly less nutritious than they are today.
The new findings are reported in the journal Nature. Eight institutions, from Australia, Israel, Japan and the United States, contributed to the analysis.
The researchers looked at multiple varieties of wheat, rice, field peas, soybeans, maize and sorghum grown in fields with atmospheric carbon dioxide levels like those expected in the middle of this century. (Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are currently approaching 400 parts per million, and are expected to rise to 550 ppm by 2050.)
By Paul Homewood
The Guardian, reporting on some recent research from Oxford University, comment:
They say:
There’s lots of hype flying around the newly released report by the Obama administration.
I didn’t comment much yesterday, I decided to read the report and consider it. Having done that, I’ll throw in my two cents with this statement.
To me, this looks more like a glossy sales pitch from a company that is pushing a product they know people may not need, but if marketed just right, it would be something they’d buy. It reminds me of some insurance commercials I’ve seen in the past, where the commercial portrays all the bad things that could happen to you if you don’t get covered. Basically, they are trying to make people afraid of the weather, and then they pitch a solution to that fear in a way that’s right up there with the best traditions of salesmanship:
Who wouldn’t want better weather? Just buy our product.
The marketing and hype is right up there with the “Affordable Care Act”and makes me wonder how much they spent on this somewhat dysfunctional website http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/ pushing the report, which crashes my browser due to all the flash video content they built into it. Swirling cloud backgrounds and multi-level forced web wading to get the basics don’t do anything for getting your information across.
Below is some commentary from others on the report, including Judith Curry and Roy Spencer. Continue reading
Policies That Try To Stop ‘Global’ Sea-Level Rise Are Costly & Ineffective
A new report published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation stresses the importance of revising the current expensive policies that seek to mitigate an assumed global sea-level rise by cutting human carbon dioxide emissions.
The report, co-authored by Dr Willem de Lange (Waikato University) and Dr Bob Carter (formerly Otago and James Cook Universities), provides a succinct summary of the primary scientific issues relevant to devising cost-effective policies regarding sea-level change, and identifies that adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation, a similar conclusion to that reached by the IPCC in their recent 5th Assessment Report.
Elevated from a WUWT comment by Dr. Robert G. Brown, Duke University
Frank K. says: You are spot on with your assessment of ECIMs/GCMs. Unfortunately, those who believe in their ability to predict future climate really don’t want to talk about the differential equations, numerical methods or initial/boundary conditions which comprise these codes. That’s where the real problems are…
Well, let’s be careful how you state this. Those who believe in their ability to predict future climate who aren’t in the business don’t want to talk about all of this, and those who aren’t expert in predictive modeling and statistics in general in the business would prefer in many cases not to have a detailed discussion of the difficulty of properly validating a predictive model — a process which basically never ends as new data comes in.
From AGU: Beaufort Gyre sea ice thins in recent decades, impacts climate
The accumulation and melting of sea ice in the Arctic has an enormous impact on the local climate, which in turn can affect the global climate. As the climate warms and Arctic sea ice retreats, it has become crucial to understand the complex ice-atmosphere-ocean dynamics within the Arctic. One major component in this dynamic is the Beaufort Gyre (BG), a wind-driven sea ice circulation and freshwater reservoir in the Arctic’s Beaufort Sea.
Marlo Lewis writes at Fox News about the National Climate Assessment: (cue funeral dirge music)
Tuesday the U.S. Government’s Global Change Research Program released its latest “National Assessment” report on climate change impacts in the United States.
As with previous editions, the new report is an alarmist document designed to scare people and build political support for unpopular policies such as carbon taxes, cap-and-trade, and EPA regulatory mandates.
Also in keeping with past practice, the latest report confuses climate risk with climate change risk.
The National Climate Assessment report denies that siting and adjustments to the national temperature record has anything to do with increasing temperature trends. Note the newest hockey stick below.
Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University
Richard Feynman idealized the good scientist as someone who displays “a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty–a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid–not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you’ve eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked–to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.”
In Episode 4 of Years of Living Dangerously while attempting to depict his resistance to “their science”, the producers inadvertently revealed that it was only climate skeptic Pastor Rick Joyner who truly practiced Feynman’s ideal.
to help keep the www.surfacestations.org project going.
