Typhoon Threat in the Philippines Next Week

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Talking Points

- Forecast to strengthen to a typhoon early week.

- May threaten the Philippines by the middle of next week.

Tropical Storm Rammasun is churning in the western Pacific Ocean, not far from where Super Typhoon Negouri first developed.

(RECAPS: Super Typhoon Negouri | Photos)

Infrared Satellite

INTERACTIVE SATELLITE LOOP

Strengthening This Weekend

Tropical Depression Nine strengthened back into a tropical storm on Saturday, after passing Guam and became Tropical Storm Rammasun (Thai for the God of thunder).

Intensification is expected to continue this weekend and a more ominous future may be in store for the Philippines.

Forecast Path

INTERACTIVE FORECAST PATH

Next Week: The Philippines? Taiwan?

Tropical Storm Rammasun is expected to strengthen into a typhoon (equivalent to hurricane-strength in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins) early in the week.

Thanks to low vertical wind shear (changes in wind speed, direction with height; normally hostile to tropical cyclone development and intensification) and a track over the warm western Pacific Ocean, what will become Typhoon Rammasun is expected to continue intensifying, possibly rapidly, early next week on a general west to west-northwest track.

The key uncertainty in the track is whether the steering upper-level ridge of high pressure gives way to a weak southward dip in the jet stream moving in from eastern China, that would bend Rammasun northward in the general direction of Taiwan. If this doesn't happen, and the upper-level ridge remains strong, Rammasun would continue on a west-northwest path, a more ominous track for the Philippines.

It is far too early to determine the exact path of the storm. According to the National Hurricane Center, the average forecast track error for Atlantic tropical cyclones four to five days out ranges from 175 to 220 miles.

The center of future Typhoon Rammasun may approach the northern or central Philippines by Wednesday, possibly as a strong typhoon. Interests in the Philippines, Taiwan and southeast China should monitor the progress of this system closely.

The Philippines are among the most tropical cyclone-prone countries on Earth. Four typhoons made landfall in the Philippines in 2013, the most destructive of which was Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda).

(MORE: Philippine Typhoon History | Super Typhoon Haiyan Devastation)

Haiyan was the third Category 5 typhoon to landfall in the Philippines since 2010, according to Weather Underground's director of meteorology, Dr. Jeff Masters. Conversely, only three hurricanes in recorded history have made a Category 5 U.S landfall.