Keeling Curve Saved! Wendy and Eric Schmidt Award $500,000 Grant to Keeling Curve

Supports continued operation of the iconic measurement series

by Robert Munroe, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, September 3, 2014

Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego today announced that Wendy and Eric Schmidt have provided a grant that will support continued operation of the renowned Keeling Curve measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. The grant provides $500,000 over five years to support the operations of the Scripps CO2 Group, which maintains the Keeling Curve.

CO2 Group Director Ralph Keeling said the grant will make it possible for his team to restore atmospheric measurements that had been discontinued because of a lack of funding, address a three-year backlog of samples that have been collected but not analyzed, and enhance outreach efforts that educate the public about the role carbon dioxide plays in climate.

"I'm very grateful to be able to return to doing science and being attentive to these records.  When it comes to tracking the rise in carbon dioxide, every year is a new milestone.  We are still learning what the rise really means for humanity and the rest of the planet,” said Keeling.

Wendy Schmidt, co-founder with her husband of The Schmidt Family Foundation and The Schmidt Ocean Institute, said “The Scripps CO2 Project is critical to documenting the atmospheric changes on our planet and the Keeling Curve is an essential part of that tracking process. As government funding for science in general is decreasing, Eric and I are delighted to work with Scripps to help it continue its benchmark CO2 Project.”

The Schmidt Family Foundation advances the development of renewable energy and the wiser use of natural resources and houses its grant-making operation in The 11th Hour Project, which supports more than 150 nonprofit organizations in program areas including climate and energy, ecological agriculture, human rights, and our maritime connection.

In 2009, the Schmidts created the Schmidt Ocean Institute (SOI), and in 2012 launched the research vesselFalkor as a mobile platform to advance ocean exploration, discovery, and knowledge, and catalyze sharing of information about the oceans.

In keeping with the couple’s commitment to ocean health issues, Wendy Schmidt has partnered with XPRIZE to sponsor the $1.4 million Wendy Schmidt Oil Cleanup XCHALLENGE, awarded in 2011, and the Wendy Schmidt Ocean Health XPRIZE, a prize that will respond to the global need for better information about the process of ocean acidification. It will be awarded in 2015.

The Keeling Curve has made measurements of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at a flagship station on Hawaii’s Mauna Loa since 1958. In addition, the Scripps CO2 Group measures carbon dioxide levels at several other locations around the world from Antarctica to Alaska. The measurement series established that global levels of CO2, a heat-trapping gas that raises atmospheric and ocean temperatures as it accumulates, have risen substantially in the past century. From a concentration that had never risen above 280 parts per million (ppm) before the Industrial Revolution, CO2 concentrations had risen to 315 ppm when the first Keeling Curve measurements were made. In 2013, concentrations at Mauna Loa rose above 400 ppm for the first time in human history and likely for the first time in 3-5 million years. Multiple lines of scientific research have attributed the rise to the use of fossil fuels in everyday activities.

The measurement series has become an icon of science with its steadily rising seasonal sawtooth representation of CO2 levels now a familiar image alongside Watson and Crick’s double helix representation of DNA and Charles Darwin’s finch sketches. Keeling Curve creator Charles David Keeling, Ralph Keeling’s father, received several honors for his work before his death in 2005, including the National Medal of Science from then-President George W. Bush.

The value of the Keeling Curve has increased over time, making possible discoveries about Earth processes that would have been extremely difficult to observe over short time periods or with only sporadic measurements. For instance, in 2013, researchers discovered that the annual range of CO2 levels is increasing. This finding may point to an increase in photosynthetic activity in response to a greater availability of a key nutrient for plant life.

Nuances in Keeling Curve measurements have similarly identified the global effects of events like volcanic eruptions, influences that would have been difficult to discern if measurements were made infrequently or periodically suspended. In addition, the Keeling Curve helps researchers understand the proportion of carbon dioxide being absorbed by the oceans, which in turn helps them estimate the pace of phenomena such as ocean acidification. In the past decade, scientists have come to widely study the ecological effects of acidification, which happens as carbon dioxide reacts chemically with seawater.

The Keeling Curve could eventually serve as a bellwether revealing the progress of efforts to diminish fossil fuel use. Save for seasonal variations, the measurement has not trended downward at any point in its history.

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/wendy-and-eric-schmidt-award-500000-grant-keeling-curve

Sea-level rise may swamp Washington, D.C.

Sea-level rise may swamp Washington, D.C.

By Dan Vergano, USA TODAY, November 23, 2011

Washington, D.C., rose from swampy river banks, and thanks to global warming, the good ol' days may be set to return. Sea-level rise may swamp some Washington D.C., monuments by 2150, a study suggests, unless levees gird the nation's capital.

CAPTION

Architect of the Capitol

"A (sea) level rise is an inevitable future for Washington, D.C.," says the Risk Analysis journal led by civil engineer Bilal Ayyub of the University of Maryland, adding, "that would impact the city even with a relatively small rise."

So, the study analyzes the effects of sea level rise expected under various scenarios used in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, from 2043 to 2150 for the nation's capital. Then the study overlaid the resultant sea-level rise on depth maps of the region, home to the Washington Monument, Lincoln Monument, White House and U.S. Capitol, among other attractions.

Depending on the amount of greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, the atmosphere will warm enough to trigger anywhere from a 4-inch sea level rise by 2043, on the low end, to more than 16 feet by 2150, on the high end.

"Even using a modest (sea-level rise) of 0.1 m (4 inches), the analysis of the data layers shows a relatively negative impact on the city. A total of 103 properties will be flooded," at a cost of $2.1 billion, says the study. "Above these levels, the numbers become staggering," it says next.

At the high end of sea level rise, 73 monuments and museums along the National Mall would be affected by 2150, along with hundreds of buildings, and land where 103,000 people now live, says the study, if nothing is done. The Lincoln Monument is on its own island in the maps at this point.

Concludes the study:

Decisions must be made in the near future by lawmakers or city planners on how to reduce the impact of and adapt to SLR (sea-level rise). A planned retreat is not an option when dealing with SLR in such an important area. City planners have to decide whether to build countermeasures to keep the city from flooding or to accommodate the SLR either by modifying land use regulations or by reducing current financial investments in the affected area. A "do- nothing" approach would directly lead to irrevocable losses. A short-term solution, like creating a small flood barrier, may give the city time to examine this challenge and produce cost-effective solutions. Cost-effective methods to deal with SLR should be developed, and long-term solutions that extend well into this millennium are necessary.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2011/10/climate-sea-level-rise-may-swamp-washington-dc-monuments/1?csp=obinsite

BBC: Current 400 ppm CO2 levels equivalent to 25-40 m higher sea levels during the Miocene; should go back to 180-280 ppm

Scary' climate message from past

by Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News, October 10, 2009

Data came from samples brought up by the drilling ship Joides Resolution

A new historical record of carbon dioxide levels suggests current political targets on climate may be "playing with fire," scientists say.

Researchers used ocean sediments to plot CO2 levels back 20 million years.

Levels similar to those now commonly regarded as adequate to tackle climate change were associated with sea levels 25-40 m (80-130 ft.) higher than today.

Scientists write in the journal Science that this extends knowledge of the link between CO2 and climate back in time.

The last 800,000 years have been mapped relatively well from ice cores drilled in Antarctica, where historical temperatures and atmospheric content have left a series of chemical clues in the layers of ice.

But looking back further has been more problematic; and the new record contains much more precise estimates of historical records than have been available before for the 20-million-year timeframe.

Sustained levels

The new research was able to look back to the Miocene period, which began a little over 20 million years ago.

At the start of the period, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere stood at about 400 parts per million (ppm) before beginning to decline about 14 million years ago -- a trend that eventually led to formation of the Antarctic icecap and perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic.

If anyone still doubts the link between CO2 and climate, they should read this paper Jonathan Overpeck University of Arizona

The high concentrations were probably sustained by prolonged volcanic activity in what is now the Columbia River basin of North America, where rock formations called flood basalts relate a history of molten rock flowing routinely onto the planet's surface.

In the intervening millennia, CO2 concentrations have been much lower; in the last few million years they cycled between 180 ppm and 280 ppm in rhythm with the sequence of ice ages and warmer interglacial periods.

Now, humanity's emissions of greenhouse gases are pushing towards the 400-ppm range, which will very likely be reached within a decade.

"What we have shown is that in the last period when CO2 levels were sustained at levels close to where they are today, there was no icecap on Antarctica and sea levels were 25-40 m higher," said research leader Aradhna Tripati from the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA).

"At CO2 levels that are sustained at or near modern day values, you don't need to have a major change in CO2 levels to get major changes in ice sheets," she told BBC News.

The elevated CO2 and sea levels were associated with temperatures about 3-6 °C (5-11 °F) higher than today.

No doubting

The data comes from the ratios of boron and calcium in the shells of tiny marine organisms called foraminifera.
The ratio indicates the pH of sea water at the time the organisms grew, which in turn allows scientists to calculate the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere.

The shell fragments came from cores drilled from the floor of the Pacific Ocean.

According to Jonathan Overpeck, who co-chaired the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) work on ancient climates for the organisation's last major report in 2007, this provides a more accurate look at how past CO2 values relate to climate than previous methods.

"This is yet another paper that makes the future look more scary than previously thought by many," said the University of Arizona scientist.

"If anyone still doubts the link between CO2 and climate, they should read this paper."

The new research does not imply that reaching CO2 levels this high would definitely result in huge sea level changes, or that these would happen quickly, Dr Tripati pointed out -- just that sustaining such levels on a long timescale might produce such changes.

"There aren't any perfect analogies in the past for climate change today or in the future," she said.
"We can say that we've identified past tipping points for ice sheet stability; the basic physics governing ice sheets that we've known from ice cores are extended further back, and... I think we should use our knowledge of the physics of climate change in the past to prepare for the future."

Averting danger

At the Rio Earth Summit of 1992, governments pledged to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."

What that level is has been the subject of intense debate down the years; but one figure currently receiving a lot of support is 450 ppm.

On Tuesday, for example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its prescription for tackling climate change, which sees concentrations of greenhouse gases peaking at the equivalent of 510 ppm of CO2 before stabilising at 450 ppm.

The Boxer-Kerry Bill, which has just entered the US Senate, also cites the 450 figure.

"Trouble is, we don't know where the critical CO2 or temperature threshold is beyond which ice sheet collapse is inevitable," said Dr Overpeck.

"It could be below 450 ppm, but it is more likely higher -- not necessarily a lot higher -- than 450 ppm.
"But what this new work suggests is that... efforts to stabilise at 450 ppm should avoid going up above that level prior to stabilisation -- that is, some sort of 'overshoot' above 450 ppm on the way to stabilisation could be playing with fire."

Because of concerns about short-term sea level rise, the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS), which includes low-lying countries such as The Maldives, Palau and Grenada, is pushing for adoption of the much lower figure of 350 ppm.

But with concentrations already substantially higher, political support for that is scanty outside AOSIS members.

Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.u

Link:  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299426.stm

J.E. Dore et al., PNAS, 106 (July 28, 2009), Physical and biogeochemical modulation of ocean acidification in the central North Pacific

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, No. 30, 12235-12240 (July 28, 2009).

Physical and biogeochemical modulation of ocean acidification in the central North Pacific

John E. Dore*, Roger Lukas, Daniel W. Sadler, Matthew J. Church and David M. Karl*

Contributed by David M. Karl, June 8, 2009 (received for review April 10, 2009).

Abstract

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is increasing at an accelerating rate, primarily due to fossil fuel combustion and land use change. A substantial fraction of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions is absorbed by the oceans, resulting in a reduction of seawater pH. Continued acidification may over time have profound effects on marine biota and biogeochemical cycles. Although the physical and chemical basis for ocean acidification is well understood, there exist few field data of sufficient duration, resolution, and accuracy to document the acidification rate and to elucidate the factors governing its variability. Here we report the results of nearly 20 years of time-series measurements of seawater pH and associated parameters at Station ALOHA in the central North Pacific Ocean near Hawaii. We document a significant long-term decreasing trend of −0.0019 ± 0.0002 y⁻¹ in surface pH, which is indistinguishable from the rate of acidification expected from equilibration with the atmosphere. Superimposed upon this trend is a strong seasonal pH cycle driven by temperature, mixing, and net photosynthetic CO₂ assimilation. We also observe substantial interannual variability in surface pH, influenced by climate-induced fluctuations in upper ocean stability. Below the mixed layer, we find that the change in acidification is enhanced within distinct subsurface strata. These zones are influenced by remote water mass formation and intrusion, biological carbon remineralization, or both. We suggest that physical and biogeochemical processes alter the acidification rate with depth and time and must therefore be given due consideration when designing and interpreting ocean pH monitoring efforts and predictive models.

Author contributions: J.E.D., R.L., and D.M.K. designed research; J.E.D., D.W.S., and M.J.C. performed research; J.E.D., R.L., D.W.S., M.J.C., and D.M.K. analyzed data; and J.E.D. wrote the paper.

*Correspondence: Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, 334 Leon Johnson Hall, Bozeman, MT 59717; e-mail: jdore@montana.edu and dkarl@hawaii.edu

Link to abstract: http://www.pnas.org/content/106/30/12235.abstract

Link to full open-access paper: http://www.pnas.org/content/106/30/12235.full.pdf+html

This article contains supporting information online at: www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/0906044106/DCSupplemental.

PNAS: Peter G. Brewer, A changing ocean seen with clarity

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0906815106

A changing ocean seen with clarity

Peter G. Brewer (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, 7700 Sandholdt Road, Moss Landing, CA 95039)

The Hawaiian archipelago, the most remote group of islands on Earth, has long been associated
with the world’s most recognizable image of global change. The Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 record, begun in March 1958 by Charles David Keeling, shows with startling clarity the saw-tooth pattern of the seasonal changes of land vegetation, and the still astonishing, dominating, rise forced by fossil fuel burning which is rapidly changing our world. Within perhaps only 5 years the peak in the annual signal atop Mauna Loa will touch the 400 ppm by volume mark, which would have been inconceivable to scientists of the first half of the twentieth century.

But there is one huge and environmentally critical signal that is not easily seen in the ‘‘Keeling curve,’’ and that is the oceanic uptake of fossil fuel CO2. In this issue of PNAS, Dore et al. (1) document with great clarity the changes in ocean CO2 chemistry and pH occurring in the ocean in the waters off Hawaii from fossil fuel CO2 invasion.


Background
The changes in pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2) in the atmosphere are exactly paralleled in the ocean, but the consequences are very different. CO2 has no atmospheric chemistry and is simply
mixed. But increasing CO2 in sea water induces changes in pH, and Dore et al. (1) have measured these changes with remarkable accuracy and precision.

They thereby forcefully link air and sea and provide unmistakable evidence of ocean acidification and the complex and still poorly understood consequences of this. And they go beyond the simple surface expression to explore the changes taking place at depth.

Large-scale uptake of atmospheric fossil fuel CO2 has long been recognized (2) as a fundamental consequence of the acid–base balance of slightly alkaline ocean surface waters, poised at about pH 8.2, exposed to an atmosphere of steadily increasing CO2 (3). The quantities involved are huge. Ocean uptake of fossil fuel CO2 is now proceeding at about 1 million metric tons of
CO2 per hour, and the accumulated burden of fossil fuel CO2 in ocean waters is now well over 530 billion tons.

But the direct measurement of the pH changes brought about by this CO2 uptake has challenged ocean scientists for decades. Dore et al. (1) have takenmodern accurate spectrophotometric
ratio techniques (4) and applied these with extraordinary care to obtain an almost 20-year record of pH changes at the now legendary station ALOHA off Hawaii. The dedication is extraordinary, and the results are unassailable. They show that the change in surface ocean CO2 properties produces a ‘‘long-term decreasing trend in surface layer pH that is indistinguishable from the rate of acidification expected from equilibration with the atmosphere.’’

Why should this finding be important? The annual changes in pH in surface waters off Hawaii are in milli-pH units, but the downward trend is clear. Why have such changes not been routinely
documented for approximately the same time as the atmospheric CO2 record? Is a slavish response to the atmosphere all that will occur? Will the deep ocean waters respond to change in
the same manner as the ocean surface?
Are there impacts that will be felt by marine life, or perturbations of carefully poised biogeochemical cycles? The seemingly simple matter of accurate measurement of oceanic CO2 system properties, and in particular pH, has engaged scientists for a long time.
Early investigators routinely made very large numbers of electrode-based pH measurements around the world. But in the words of Keeling (5) ‘‘These investigators, in their optimism for having found a simple measuring routine, failed to note that the new method was scarcely capable of detecting the small changes in pH of surface ocean water that reflect significant changes in pCO2.’’

These measurements were therefore of little practical use for tracking the changes taking place.
A major improvement was initiated in 1967 with the call by the influential chemist Lars Gunnar Sillen (6) for pressure–temperature-independent data, and for accurate measurement of the mass propertiesof total CO2 and alkalinity. These can be fundamentally calibrated and are
required data for incorporating the CO2 system in ocean circulation models. But the methods recommended still relied on glass electrodes and on a complex array of thermodynamic constants. It was inevitable that trouble would follow (7) with a decade of inconsistent data
from the world-wide Geosecs expedition that took heroic efforts to untangle (8). New nonelectrode techniques were developed, standards were created, and internal consistency was found.

Geochemists were then happier with the state of the art, and rapid progress was made. As a result, time series stations were established at Bermuda (9) and Hawaii (10) with the purpose of
detailed tracking of oceanic biogeochemical cycles through time. These stations and the record that flows from them are now part of the crown jewels of US global change science. From these
and other data ocean chemists could uncover the massive imprint of the fossil fuel CO2 signal (11).

But communicating the consequences of these changes to the broader community, and to physiologists concerned with the inner workings of marine animals, proved hard. By reporting on mass properties, and assuming that the pH changes were understood, ocean scientists did not get their message out; the required language simply was not there.

In a 2004 lecture to a fisheries meeting I remarked: ‘‘So complex is the full accounting of this process that the message has often been blurred. The use of a confusing set of apparent thermodynamic constants, the existence of several pH scales, the arcane distinctions between
pCO2 and fCO2, the strictures on careful measurement, and the use of these systems in dynamic models have all deterred the non-specialist.’’

Public Awareness

Breakthroughs in public awareness occurred in a strange way. Direct disposal of fossil fuel CO2 in the ocean as a means of climate control had been advocated as early as 1977 (12), but when even very-small-scale experiments took place (13) the images obtained aroused environmental concern as no graph or table ever could. A typical reaction was ‘‘My God! You are going to change pH.’’ This new medium conveyed the message. With a formal assessment of the engineering issues and biological consequences by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (14) the door was opened. A critical meeting held in Paris in 2004 (15) shaped the rapidly emerging field of ocean acidification studies (16), and a cascade of important papers followed.

The first concern was for changes in calcification, with impacts on coral reefs and pelagic organisms with calcareous shells (17). The 20-year record in surface waters off Hawaii shows only a -0.03 pH unit change. But extrapolating backwards to the preindustrial era indicates
that a modern change of -0.1 pH has already occurred. And projecting forward using well-known IPCC scenarios shows that a change of about -0.3 pH should occur by mid-century. The Dore et al. (1) data set shows that we are right on this track.

Consequences

The consequences for coral reefs (18) arouse concern because lowered carbonate ion concentration directly affects the ability of organisms to precipitate aragonite—the most common isomorph of calcium carbonate in coralline animals and the basic building block of coral reefs. Schneider and Erez (19) report a reduction in calcification rate of 55% for Acropora eurystoma under a0.3). There is strong evidence that this is not controlled by an external surface equilibrium process. Rather the coralline animal actually engulfs sea water into an internal vacuole and works to form the skeletal material from the enclosed fluid. Although an increase in
temperature could extend the latitudinal range of some corals, the net result of the combined effects of warming and acidification is likely to be strongly negative.

Hawaii is surrounded by vast expanses of coral reefs, but interestingly Dore et al. (1) do not directly address this issue. Instead they step tentatively onto new ground. They report on the vertical profiles of changing pH in the ocean water column and note that the rate of change ‘‘is elevated within distinct subsurface strata.’’ The deeper strata are colder waters formed at higher latitudes, but they take time to transit from their point of equilibration with the atmosphere and thus ‘‘saw’’ an earlier, lower-CO2, atmosphere. Why then should the rate of change of pH be higher?

The generally quoted change of pH of -0.3 for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 applies only to well-buffered surface waters; it will be greater at depth. The huge capacity of the ocean for CO2 uptake is related to the well-known Revelle factor expressed approximately as the ratio of a fractional change in pCO2 to the fractional change in total CO2 (TCO2), or pCO2/pCO2/TCO2/TCO2.

For surface waters this typically has a value of 10. But colder, deep waters in which pH and carbonate ion have already been much reduced by the addition of respiratory CO2 have far less
buffer capacity. Thus the changes in both pCO2 and pH created at depth as the CO2 invasion moves into abyssal waters will far exceed the surface changes now widely discussed in the ocean acidification literature. The relatively well-oxygenated deep waters off Hawaii measured by Dore et al. (1) hint at this process.

For an extreme case, Brewer and Peltzer (20) have recently investigated the changes at an eastern Pacific station where O2 levels are very strongly depleted, and CO2 highly enriched, at only 500-m depth. There surface waters labeled by a doubling of atmospheric CO2 and translated to depth will raise the pCO2 from about 1,000 ppm to 2,000 ppm and more. The equivalent changes in pH will occur. These extraordinary numbers pose a challenge not simply for calcareous organisms but when combined with very low O2 values pose a respiratory limit to all aerobic life. The end result is disturbing. There is already clear evidence of expansion of the low-oxygen regions of the oceans (21), and when these are combined with rising CO2 levels we will surely see true dead zones created.

The remote Hawaiian waters are still apparently unaffected by the trend in declining O2, but the rise in CO2 and decline in pH that are observed, although still small, indicate that these ocean processes and worrisome trends are universal.

Link to pdf file with correct symbols for the equations: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/07/21/0906815106.full.pdf+html?etoc

R.E. Zeebe, J.C. Zachos, G.R. Dickens, Nature Geosci.,Carbon dioxide forcing alone insufficient to explain Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum warming

Nature Geoscience, published online 13 July 2009; doi:10.1038/ngeo578

Carbon dioxide forcing alone insufficient to explain Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum warming

Richard E. Zeebe* (School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1000 Pope Road, MSB 504, Honolulu, HI 96822, U.SA.), James C. Zachos (Earth and Planetary Sciences Department, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, U.S.A.) and Gerald R. Dickens (Department of Earth Sciences, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005, U.S.A.)

Abstract

The Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (about 55 Myr ago) represents a possible analogue for the future and thus may provide insight into climate system sensitivity and feedbacks^{1, 2}. The key feature of this event is the release of a large mass of ¹³C-depleted carbon into the carbon reservoirs at the Earth's surface, although the source remains an open issue^{3, 4}. Concurrently, global surface temperatures rose by 5–9 ^°C within a few thousand years^{5, 6, 7, 8, 9}. Here we use published palaeorecords of deep-sea carbonate dissolution^{10, 11, 12, 13, 14} and stable carbon isotope composition^{10, 15, 16, 17} along with a carbon cycle model to constrain the initial carbon pulse to a magnitude of 3,000 Pg C or less, with an isotopic composition lighter than -50. As a result, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased during the main event by less than about 70% compared with pre-event levels. At accepted values for the climate sensitivity to a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration¹, this rise in CO₂ can explain only between 1 and 3.5 ^°C of the warming inferred from proxy records. We conclude that in addition to direct CO₂ forcing, other processes and/or feedbacks that are hitherto unknown must have caused a substantial portion of the warming during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. Once these processes have been identified, their potential effect on future climate change needs to be taken into account.

*Correspondence, e-mail: zeebe@soest.hawaii.edu

NOAA's monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, May 2009, WUWT

Graph above is of the GLOBAL monthly averages. CLICK ON GRAPH TO ENLARGE. Are we getting a methane spike?

For NOAA's monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Link: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_trend_gl.pdf

Link below to the monthly measurements going back to the 1950s, at Mauna Loa:

ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt

Link to NOAA's Mauna Loa page: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Bärbel Hönisch et al., Science, 324, June 19, 2009: Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration across the mid-Pleistocene transition

Science, 19 June 2009, Vol. 324, No. 5934, pp. 1551-1554; DOI: 10.1126/science.1171477

Reports

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration across the mid-Pleistocene transition

Bärbel Hönisch (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, NY 10964–8000, U.S.A.), N. Gary Hemming (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, NY 10964–8000, U.S.A., and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Queens College, New York, NY, 11367–1597, U.S.A.), David Archer (Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, U.S.A.), Mark Siddall (Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, U.K.), and Jerry F. McManus (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, NY 10964–8000, U.S.A.)

The dominant period of Pleistocene glacial cycles changed during the mid-Pleistocene from 40,000 years to 100,000 years, for as yet unknown reasons. Here we present a 2.1-million-year record of sea surface partial pressure of CO₂ (PCO₂), based on boron isotopes in planktic foraminifer shells, which suggests that the atmospheric partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) was relatively stable before the mid-Pleistocene climate transition. Glacial PCO₂ was ~31 microatmospheres higher before the transition (more than 1 million years ago), but interglacial PCO₂ was similar to that of late Pleistocene interglacial cycles (<450,000 years ago). These estimates are consistent with a close linkage between atmospheric CO₂ concentration and global climate, but the lack of a gradual decrease in interglacial PCO₂ does not support the suggestion that a long-term drawdown of atmospheric CO₂ was the main cause of the climate transition.

Link to abstract: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/324/5934/1551

Barbel Honisch: CO2 levels are higher than the last 2.1 million years

WASHINGTON -- A new study has shown that current CO2 levels are higher than the last 2.1 million years.

The study is the latest to rule out a drop in CO2 as the cause for earth’s ice ages growing longer and more intense some 850,000 years ago.

But it also confirms many researchers’ suspicion that higher carbon dioxide levels coincided with warmer intervals during the study period.

The authors show that peak CO2 levels over the last 2.1 million years averaged only 280 ppm; but today, CO2 is at 385 ppm, or 38% higher.

This finding means that researchers will need to look back further in time for an analog to modern day climate change.

In the study, Barbel Honisch, a geochemist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and her colleagues reconstructed CO2 levels by analyzing the shells of single-celled plankton buried under the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Africa.

By dating the shells and measuring their ratio of boron isotopes, they were able to estimate how much CO2 was in the air when the plankton were alive.

This method allowed them to see further back than the precision records preserved in cores of polar ice, which go back only 800,000 years.

The planet has undergone cyclic ice ages for millions of years, but about 850,000 years ago, the cycles of ice grew longer and more intense-a shift that some scientists have attributed to falling CO2 levels.

But, the study found that CO2 was flat during this transition and unlikely to have triggered the change.

A global drawdown in CO2 is one theory proposed for the transition.

“The low CO2 levels outlined by the study through the last 2.1 million years make modern day levels, caused by industrialization, seem even more anomalous,” said Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Pennsylvania State University.

“We know from looking at much older climate records that large and rapid increase in C02 in the past, (about 55 million years ago) caused large extinction in bottom-dwelling ocean creatures, and dissolved a lot of shells as the ocean became acidic. We’re heading in that direction now,” he added. (ANI)

Andrew Glikson: Global warming toward 2 degrees centigrade

According to the IPCC AR4-2007 report [1], a total anthropogenic greenhouse factor of 3.06 Watt/m², equivalent to about +2.3 °C, is masked by a compensating aerosol albedo effect of -1.25 Watt/m² (mainly sulphur from industrial emissions), equivalent to about -0.9 °C (without land clearing albedo gain and ice melt albedo loss) (Table 1). Once the short-lived aerosols dissipate, adding the reflectance loss of melting polar ice (where maximum warming of up to 4 °C occurs), mean global temperatures track toward +2 °C, considered by the European Union to be the maximum permissible level.

From Table 1, subtracting the aerosol masking effect, the magnitude of the 1750-2005 mean forcing at ~3 Watt/m² is approaching 50% of the total last glaciation termination of 6.5 +/-1.5 Watt, not accounting for developments since 2005. This includes the reduction in albedo due to melting of Arctic Sea ice and other parts of the cryosphere. Since the mid-1990s the mean global temperature trend has become increasingly irregular, representing an increase in climate variability with global warming, as reflected by variations in the ENSO cycle and oscillating ice melt and re-freeze cycles.

The solar sunspot cycle effect is at about +/-0.1 °C, an order of magnitude less than greenhouse forcing. Sharp peaks include the 1998 El-Nino peak (near +0.55 °C) and the 2007 La Nina trough (near -0.7 °C) [2]. Mean global temperature continued to rise during 1999-2005 by about 0.2 °C. The effects of this warming on the cryosphere include:

(A) Reduction in the Arctic Sea multi-year ice cover from about 4.2 to 2.5 million km² during 2000-2009 [3].

(B) Increase in Greenland September ice melt area from 350,000 to 550,000 km² during 1997-2007 [4].

(C) Warming of the entire Antarctic continent by 0.6 °C and of west Antarctic by 0.85 °C during 1957-2006 [5], reflected by collapse of west Antarctic ice shelves [6].

Variations in temperature and sea ice cover around Antarctica are effected by the shrinking polar wind vortex and tropospheric and stratospheric ozone layer conditions, resulting in geographic and temporal variability in sea and land ice cover (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/sea_ice_south.php?src=eoa-ann).

Ongoing global warming may lead to the release of methane from permafrost, collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline current, high-energy weather events, and yet little-specified shifts in atmospheric states (tipping points) [7].

Table 1. Comparisons between anthropocene (1750-2005), last glacial termination (20-11.7 kyr) and Pliocene (~3 Ma) CO2 levels, climate forcings, mean global temperatures, and sea levels. Sources: [1, 19].

Period	CO2 ppm	Forcings (Watt/m²)	Temperature oC (1 oC ~ ¾ W/m2)	Sea level (m)
1750-2005	260-387	Greenhouse: +3.06 Albedo: -1.25* Current balance: +1.81 Ice albedo loss (? W/m2)	~ +2.3 ~-0.9?T oC	Tracking toward Pliocene levels
Last glacial termination (20-11.7 kyr)	180-280	Greenhouse gases: +3.0 +/-0.5 Ice sheets and vegetation albedo loss: +3.5 +/-1.0.	~ +5.0 +/-1.0	+120
Pliocene (3 Ma)	400		+2 to 3	+25 +/-12

*Not including land clearing.

This experiment by Homo "sapiens" is a novel one. Developments may include periods of cooling, as may be indicated by the current slow-down of Greenland glaciers. In a recent paper by Dakos et al. (2008), abrupt climate changes in the past are shown to have been preceded by quiet periods [8].

"Skeptics" use such short-term variability, for example slowing down of Greenland glaciers, to argue "global cooling" -- and thereby a "justification" -- for further carbon emissions [9-11].

The implication s of climate change for ecosystems are illustrated in the new book Heatstroke: Nature in an Age of Global Warming" by Anthony Barnosky, of Yale University, who states: "I think probably the biggest cause for worry is we really are seeing the disappearance of whole ecological niches, which means extinctions" [12].

Despite intensified warnings from the Copenhagen climate conference [13], as a self-fulfilling prophecy the "great moral issue of our time" [14] is being relegated to secondary priority [15].

Given that warnings by scientists have proven mostly correct, as contrasted with watered-down reports percolating upward through bureaucracies, there is little evidence the authorities are listening to the recent dire warnings by climate scientists [16].

The decline by CSIRO to report directly to the recent Senate climate inquiry [17], reminiscent of the Howard era [18], has only been saved by the courage of individual scientists, one of whom compared current targets to 'Russian roulette with the climate system with most of the chambers loaded'.

[1] http://www.ipcc.ch/ ; SPM.2.

[2] http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.lrg.gif

[3] http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic_thinice.html

[4] http://nsidc.org/data/virtual_globes/

[5] http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20090121/

[6] http://nsidc.org/news/press/20080325_Wilkins.html

[7] http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2009/02/timothy-m-lenton-et-al-pnas-105-6.html ; http://researchpages.net/ESMG/people/tim-lenton/tipping-points/.

[8] http://www.indiana.edu/~halllab/L577/Topic3/Dakosetal_2008_PNAS.pdf

[9] http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2009/01/23/glacier-slowdown-in-greenland-how-inconvenient/

[10] http://www.connorcourt.com/catalog1/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=7&products_id=103 ; http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/05/ian_enting_is_checking_plimers.php http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/04/23/ian-plimer-heaven-and-earth/ ; http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25433059-5003900,00.htmlhttp://www.crikey.com.au/2009/05/05/plimer-wants-to-talk-science-ok-here-goes/

[11] http://australianconservative.com/main-site/category/policy/environment/page/2/

[12] http://www.e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2154

[13] http://climatecongress.ku.dk/newsroom/congress_key_messages/

[14] http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25037352-7583,00.html?from=public_rss

[15] http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/04/24/doolittle-and-delay/

[16] http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=28&ContentID=139318 http://wotnews.com.au/like/7_australian_climate_scientists_forecast_an_end_to_coal/3359286/.

[17] http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2543405.htm

[18] http://www.safecom.org.au/csiro-silence.htm

[19] http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2008/Hansen_etal.html

Link to article: http://www.opednews.com/articles/GLOBE-WARMING-TOWARD-TWO-D-by-Andrew-Glikson-090531-738.html

Joseph Romm: Shame on Richard Lindzen, MIT’s uber-hypocritical anti-scientific scientist

Shame on Richard Lindzen, MIT’s uber-hypocritical anti-scientific scientist

As an alum, I was happily surprised when a few weeks ago a senior M.I.T. professor directed me to a major study by a dozen leading experts associated with their Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change that made it clear M.I.T. had joined the climate realists.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has just doubled its previous (2003) projection of global warming by 2100 to 5.1 °C. Their median projection for the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2095 is a jaw-dropping 866 ppm. Human civilization as we know it could not survive such warming, such concentrations (see likely impacts here).

But there is one MIT professor who has remained blind to the remarkable strengthening of our understanding of climate science in the past 2 years — Richard Lindzen. A general debunking of Lindzen’s popular disinformation tracts can be found on RealClimate here.

At the Heartland conference of climate-change deniers that began Sunday in New York, however, Lindzen went from denial to defamation as he smeared the reputation of one of the greatest living climate scientists, Wallace Broecker.

Before discussing that indefensible and hypocritical smear, it is worth noting that the Heartland conference is so extreme that even “moderate” deniers, like John Christy won’t go, as Andy Revkin reports:

John R. Christy … said he had skipped both Heartland conferences to avoid the potential for “guilt by association.”

Now when a guy who has been as wrong for as long as Christy has (see here) is afraid his reputation will be harmed by attending your conference, you are way, way out there!

And indeed, Lindzen chose to abandon what little is left of his professional reputation, as the astonishing report on the conference from Examiner.com makes clear:

The conference also featured Richard Lindzen, the Alfred P. Sloan professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who said his colleagues endorse climate change to win acclaim.

“Most of the atmospheric scientists who I respect do endorse global warming,” Lindzen said. “The important point, however, is that the science that they do, that I respect, is not about global warming. Endorsing global warming just makes their lives easier.”

Yes, the atmospheric scientists Lindzen “respects” all lie to the public about what they believe just to make their lives easier. That doesn’t sound like a single scientist I have ever met in my life. I’d love to talk to some of those scientists and see if the single one of them respects Lindzen.

Lindzen called out colleagues such as Wallace Broecker, a geochemist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, whose work, Lindzen said, “clearly shows that sudden climate change occurs without anthropogenic influence, and is a property of cold rather than warm climates. However, he staunchly beats the drums for alarm and is richly rewarded for doing so.“

And so Richard Lindzen — a man who would be unknown to the public, with no “acclaim” whatsoever, if not for his denial of our basic understanding of climate science — accuses one of the nation’s preeminent climate scientists of lying to the public for fame and money. I’d also note that back in 1995, journalist Ross Gelbspan explained in Harpers that it is Lindzen who is far more richly rewarded for spreading anti-science than Broecker ever has been before explaining science: “Lindzen, for his part, charges oil and coal interests $2,500 a day for his consulting services.”

Shame on you, Richard Lindzen.

It is worth noting that Broecker famously published in Nature (subs. reqd) in 1995, “The paleoclimate record shouts out to us that, far from being self-stabilizing, the Earth’s climate system is an ornery beast which overreacts even to small nudges.” The issue isn’t whether the climate has changed suddenly in the past without human influence, the issue is why the climate changes (answer — because it is pushed by external forcings, which clearly can include greenhouse gases), and whether the climate has ever been pushed into a much warmer state than it is today (answer –yes).

Broecker is traveling and could not be reached immediately for comment. Broecker is considered a pioneering scientist of climate change because in a 1957 article in Yale Scientific he pondered the effects of releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Last year, Broecker wrote a book, Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat — and How to Counter It suggesting humans will be unable to change activities that contribute to climate change in time to forestall a climate catastrophe.

I don’t know “unable” is the right word, but so far it appears “unwilling” certainly is.

Earlier this year Lindzen’s colleagues at MIT revised prior estimations to conclude that human activity is on a path to instigate climate catastrophe within this century.

Precisely.

Related Posts:

• The upside of Heartland’s disinformation — unintentional humor
• Study: Water-vapor feedback is “strong and positive,” so we face “warming of several degrees Celsius”

Link to Joseph Romm's Climate Progress blog post: http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/09/richard-lindzen-heartland-denier/

James Hansen talks with Charlie Rose about Coal, Sea Level Rise, 4th Generation Nuclear Power -- Must See Video

James Hansen talks with Charlie Rose about Coal, Sea Level Rise, and 4th Generation Nuclear Power Plants -- Must See Video!

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9216

This video is 22 minutes long, but it loads very nicely, large format. Dr. Hansen talks about his trip around the world to talk to leaders about what they are doing to reduce emissions.

Gideon Polya: Global warming, climate emergency – Global Warming Impacting Humanity (Australian bushfires of 2009)

Global Warming Impacting Humanity

by Gideon Polya, mwcnews.net, February 14, 2009

Australia’s State of Victoria (capital Melbourne) has just suffered record-breaking heat wave temperatures and a tragic bushfire disaster (over 180 people dead, over 1,000 homes destroyed, over 300,000 hectares burnt). This tragedy has occurred on top of a background of sustained drought, man-made global warming and global government inaction.

An otherwise relatively cool summer was transformed 2 weeks ago when the temperature in Melbourne soared to over 43 oC (109.4 oF) for 3 days (28–30 January 2009). A week later ,the temperature soared to 46.4 oC (115.5 oF) in Melbourne – about 47 oC (116.6 oF) where I live in Macleod, north of the city, and 47.8 oC (118 oF) at Avalon, the site of Melbourne’s second major passenger jet airport. However, this horrendous heat was associated with strong winds that turned fires from lightning strikes and from psychopathic arsonists into rapidly moving firestorms.

People living adjacent to highly-inflammable Eucalyptus forests to the north and east of Melbourne were advised to have “fire plans” and to decide whether to stay and protect their property or to leave in a timely fashion. Unfortunately, a combination of tinder-dry bush, high temperatures and high winds created high-speed fire storms that gave people little chance to escape when they finally realized the enormity of what they were facing.

There has been great outpouring of support for the thousands of surviving refugees and praise for the heroic fire fighters. In these circumstances one feels constrained not to diminish such national unity, but the harsh reality is that man-made climate change has contributed to this catastrophe, Australia is a world leader in annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and both the Federal Government and Opposition are united in support for “business as usual” GHG pollution and Australia’s world-leading coal exports.

I sought the opinion of several friends who had luckily escaped the conflagration and whose house in one of the worst areas had miraculously survived – should one be circumspect in these circumstances or publicly raise the issue of the climate change underlying this disaster? Their answer to my repeated questioning was unequivocally yes – speak out, because ignoring the Climate Emergency has helped create this disaster. Below I have summarized the expert testimony from Australian and US scientists on the climate change and the severity of forest fires.

According to a key 2006 paper in the top journal Science by Dr A.L. Westerling and colleagues.: “We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt … We found that the incidence of large wildfires in western forests increased in the mid-1980s (Fig. 1) [hereafter, "wildfires" refers to large-fire events (>400 ha) within forested areas only]. Subsequently, wildfire frequency was nearly four times the average of 1970 to 1986, and the total area burned by these fires was more than six and a half times its previous level” [1].

According to Professor John Holdren (Harvard University, former Chairman of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Director of the Woods Hole Research Center, and President Obama’s chief scientific adviser) in a recent lecture entitled “The Science of Climatic Disruption,” forest fires are being exacerbated by drought and elevated temperatures in America and Europe; the annual acres burned in the Western USA have now increased from about 0.5 million (1960–1980) to 2.5–4.5 million (21st century); and the 14 hottest years on record have been since 1990 [2].

According to NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) the global mean surface temperature increase since about 1970 has been about 0.6 oC (the temperature increase since about 1890 has been about 0.8 oC) [3].

In response to a record heat wave in the State of Victoria, Australia, and its capital Melbourne (on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, January 28–30, 2009, the Melbourne temperature was unprecedently in excess of 43 oC), Professor David Karoly (meteorologist, University of Melbourne; chairman of the Victorian government's climate change reference group; shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with others connected with the IPCC) stated: "This week is unusual but it (the heat) will become much more like the normal experience, in the range of normal heatwaves, in 10 to 20 years … It is clear that the current (Victorian) public transport system [train network] is not able to cope and it is also clear that the water supply system is stretched ... The health services and the road system are also obviously stretched to their limits… The system can't cope now, and it is just going to get much worse” [4].

For societal reasons alluded to above, expert comment connecting this disaster with climate change has been limited although there has been much comment on other aspects such as risk management and preparedness (e.g., fight or flee, bunkers, fuel reduction, tree reduction around homes, warning sirens, etc.).

Thus, according to some leading Australian bushfire researchers (psychologist Professor Douglas Paton of the University of Tasmania and the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC), Bushfire CRC chief executive officer Gary Morgan, and bushfire and urban design expert Justin Leonard of the CSIRO), Australians need to be better educated about how to deal with bushfires. The current “prepare, stay and defend” or “leave early” policy may have to be modified in view of this latest tragedy and global warming [5].

However Professor Will Steffen (director, Climate Change Institute, Australian National University, ANU) has commented: "Events like this, severe heatwaves and severe fires, become more likely with an underlying change in climate …People better prepare for the fact that the risk is increasing ... (for) more frequent extreme events that are related to temperature, like heatwaves, like bushfires … Our climate is getting warmer, as it is in the rest of the world, and I think there's no doubt about that” [6].

Australian Greens Senator Dr Bob Brown: “Global warming is predicted to make this sort of event happen 25 per cent, 50 per cent more" [6].

Greenpeace climate campaigner Trish Harrup: “The scale of this catastrophe, coupled with severe floods in Queensland, should be a clarion call to politicians for the need to begin treating climate change as a national emergency” [6].

Climatologist Professor David Karoly (University of Melbourne) (ABC Lateline interview): “[hot temperatures] unprecedented .... The records were broken by a large amount and you cannot explain that just by natural variability … What we are seeing now is that the chances of these sorts of extreme fire weather situations are occurring much more rapidly in the last ten years due to climate change" [7].

Scientist Dr Greg Holland (US National Center for Atmospheric Research): “[high levels of greenhouse gases would] be with us for decades …We definitely need to change our habits so that we can leave our children and our children's children with a better world to live in … In the meantime we are going to have to adapt, we are going to have to accept that it is not going to be six days per summer of extreme temperatures. It may be 20 days per summer of extreme temperatures. And we have to take the appropriate actions to actually live with those conditions" [7].

The following is a statement from 200 intellectual and scientist delegates to the June 2008 Manning Clark House Conference: “Imagining the Real Life on a Greenhouse Earth,” 11–12 June, Australian National University, Canberra, e.g., climate scientists:

Prof Barry Brook, Prof Ian Enting, Prof Janette Lindesay, Prof Graeme Pearman, Dr Barrie Pittock, Prof Will Steffen; Earth and prehistory scientists Dr Geoff Davies, Dr David Denham, Dr Andrew Glikson (conference convenor), Dr Geoffrey Hope, Prof Malcolm McCulloch, Dr Bradley Opdyke; health and population experts Prof Stephen Boyden, Dr Bryan Furnass (conference co-convenor), Prof Tony McMichael, Dr Sue Wareham) and Mark O’Connor).

“Global warming is accelerating. The Arctic summer sea ice is expected to melt entirely within the next five years – decades earlier than predicted in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report.

Scientists judge the risks to humanity of dangerous global warming to be high. The Great Barrier Reef faces devastation. Extreme weather events, such as storm surges adding to rising sea levels and threatening coastal cities, will become increasingly frequent.

There is a real danger that we have reached or will soon reach critical tipping points and the future will be taken out of our hands. The melting Arctic sea ice could be the first such tipping point.

Beyond 2ºC of warming, seemingly inevitable unless greenhouse gas reduction targets are tightened, we risk huge human and societal costs and perhaps even the effective end of industrial civilisation. We need to cease our assault on our own life support system, and that of millions of species. Global warming is only one of many symptoms of that assault.

Peak oil, global warming and long term sustainability pressures all require that we reduce energy needs and switch to alternative energy sources. Many credible studies show that Australia can quickly and cost-effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions through dramatic improvements in energy efficiency and by increasing our investment in solar, wind and other renewable sources.

The need for action is extremely urgent, and our window of opportunity for avoiding severe impacts is rapidly closing. Yet the obstacles to change are not technical or economic, they are political and social.

We know democratic societies have responded successfully to dire and immediate threats, as was demonstrated in World War II. This is a last call for an effective response to global warming” [8].

We can now realistically expect 450 ppm atmospheric CO2 by about 2030 (i.e., in about 20 years’ time, assuming 3 ppm CO2/y, or earlier due to positive feedbacks) with a change in temperature (ΔT) 2 oC above that in 1900. Above 450 ppm CO2 there is intensification of existing conditions (all Arctic summer sea ice will have gone by 2015, massive hurricanes, storm surges, droughts, mega bushfires, coastal and inland flooding, food shortages, huge mass mortality) plus increasingly major damage to coral reefs – including Australia’s Great Barrier Reef – which will be dying due to ocean warming and acidification above 450 ppm CO2 – with increasing damage to already stressed fisheries and agriculture with consequent mass starvation [9].

This is inexorably happening due to inaction of governments around the world who are simply ignoring top scientific advice in the interests of short-term business profits. Yet it doesn’t have to happen if appropriate actions are urgently taken as summarized below in the 1-page Climate Emergency Facts and Required Actions statement of the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group (please send to everyone you can) [10].

Climate Emergency Facts and Required Actions.

Just as we turn to top medical specialists for advice on life-threatening disease, so we turn to the opinions of top scientists and in particular top biological and climate scientists for Climate Change risk assessment and Climate Emergency Facts and requisite Actions as exampled below (for detailed documentation of everything below see the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group website).

Professor James Hansen (top US climate scientist, head, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies): “We face a climate emergency.”

Nobel Laureate Professor Peter Doherty: “We are in real danger.”

Professor David de Kretser AC (eminent medical scientist and Governor of Victoria, Australia) “There is no doubt in my mind that this is the greatest problem confronting mankind at this time and that it has reached the level of a state of emergency.”

Dr Andrew Glikson (palaeo-climate scientist, ANU): “The continuing use of the atmosphere as an open sewer for industrial pollution has … raised CO2 levels to 387 ppm CO2 to date, leading toward conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene), when CO2 levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3 °C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres.”

Major Climate Emergency Facts.

1. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased to 387 parts per million (ppm) as compared to 280 ppm pre-industrial and is increasing at about 2.5 ppm per year with average global temperature about 0.8 °C above the pre-industrial.

2. Man-made global warming due to greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution from carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen oxides is already associated with major ecosystem damage (Arctic, ocean, coral reefs), melting of glaciers and Arctic sea ice, sea level rise, methane release from melting tundra and positive feed-back effects accelerating GHG pollution and warming.

3. Consequences of atmospheric CO2 concentration increase and warming to current 387 ppm: major ecosystem damage; current species extinction rates are 100–1,000 times greater than previously; to over 400 ppm: “new territory” not seen for millions of years with acute dangers from positive feedbacks; to over 450 ppm: major damage and death to coral reefs and associated fisheries; to over 500 ppm: major loss of ocean phytoplankton, ocean life, cloud seeding, the Greenland ice sheet and densely populated global coastal regions due to massive sea level rises.

Climate Emergency actions urgently required.

1. Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying.

2. Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO2 to a safe level of about 300 ppm as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists.

3. Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth [10].

It is not necessarily too late – but time is certainly running out. What has happened to my State of Victoria this week – and indeed is still happening with massive fires still raging to the north and east of Melbourne – will be repeated elsewhere in forested areas around the world on the back of a steadily increasing background of increasing global temperature.

Please inform your fellow citizens and political representatives to heed the pleas for action coming from biological scientists and climate scientists as outlined above.

One very effective way you could act would be by sending the 1-page Climate Emergency Facts and Required Actions statement of the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group (see above and reference [10]) to everyone you can.

Dr Gideon Polya, MWC News Chief political editor, published some 130 works in a four-decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text "Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds" (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, New York & London, 2003), and is currently writing a book on global mortality ---
Other articles by this author

References

[1]. A.L. Westerling, H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, & T. W. Swetnam (18 August 2006), Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity, Science, Vol. 313, No. 5789, pp. 940–943; DOI: 10.1126/science.1128834; see:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940

[2]. Dr John Holdren (2008), “The Science of Climatic Disruption”:
http://www.usclimateaction.org/userfiles/JohnHoldren.pdf .

[3]. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS): http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ . See also IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/
ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf and Chapter 5, “Projecting Australian climate change,” The Garnaut Climate Change Review (2008): http://www.garnautreview.org.au/chp5.htm .

[4]. Professor David Karoly quoted by AAP via TVNZ, New Zealand “Southeast under strain from heatwave” (2009): http://tvnz.co.nz/world-news/southeast-under-strain-heatwave-2457490 .

[5]. Professor Douglas Paton et al., quoted by Dani Cooper, ABC, Science online (2009):
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/
10/2487088.htm?site=centralvic

[6]. Professor Will Steffen, Dr Brown and Trish Harrup quoted by Cathy Alexander, “Expert predicts more mega-bushfires,” Channel 9 News (2009): http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=749141 .

[7]. Professor David Karoly and Dr Greg Holland, interviewed by ABC Lateline, “More severe weather forecast, David Karoly warns”: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25033531-421,00.html .

[8]. Statement of the June 2008 Manning Clark House Conference: “Imagining the Real Life on a Greenhouse Earth,” 11–12 June, Australian National University, Canberra: http://www.aussmc.org/Climate_joint_statement.php .

[9]. Gideon Polya, “Global warming, climate emergency” course notes, U3A (2009):
http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/
global-warming--global-emergency-course .

[10]. Climate Emergency Facts and Required Actions, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group (2008):
http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/
climate-emergency-facts-and-required-actions .

Link to Gideon Polya's blog and this post: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140209.htm