Eurovision 2014 – As soon as the contest was over, the EBU published the full televote and jury results (including each jury’s vote). Here you’ll find the semifinals’ results with 100% jury, 100% televote and most importantly with the old split results prior to the 2013 changes. Tell us what you think!
Probably this is due to DR’s actions towards more transparency. Whereas last year, the same EBU took longer to publish “split” results, but only with % of rankings and not even the detailed country by country results, this year we got everything down to each jury member, and as soon as the contest was over!
And this transparency is good news for the contest in general, as we get to spot the things we can claim as unfair, if not plain cheating for some juries. But at least now we know. Sure we can say the EBU is lying on the stats they’re giving us, but that would be going very far in cynism. We have already plenty to comment on.
First and most of all, jury and televote again disagreed quite a lot. So, a simple glimpse at the full results from each set of voting can tell us which countries were liked and disliked depending on a “mass” effect of televote (where you get 20 chances to hit your favorite song(s)) or a jury result (where supposed specialists get to rank all songs).
But among the 2013 changes made by the SVT, there wasn’t just the end of random draw, there was also a change in the voting system. Before, the jury would have a top 10 with points (12,10,8-1) and the televote would as well, and put together countries had therefore points from 24 possible to 1, and that top 10 would then be given 12, 10, 8-1 in the final results. Nowadays, every country is ranked from 1st to 25th/26th (depending if the country is a finalist or not), by both jury and televote, and these results are added on, so a song ranked 1st and 26th would get a total of 27 points, when a song ranked 2nd and 11th would get 13 points and much better than in the former system, when the first song would get 12pts but the second one only 10pts.
So here’s the Semifinal 1 results to compare:
| Official results | Televote results | Jury results | Old system | |
| 1 | 150  Netherlands |
147 Netherlands |
130 Netherlands |
145 Netherlands |
| 2 | 131  Sweden |
125  Hungary |
125 Sweden |
130 Sweden |
| 3 | 127 Hungary |
122 Sweden |
122 Hungary |
127 Hungary |
| 4 | 121  Armenia |
121 Armenia |
102 Armenia |
121 Armenia |
| 5 | 118  Ukraine |
119 Ukraine |
94  Azerbaijan |
112 Ukraine |
| 6 | 63  Russia |
73 Russia |
88 Ukraine |
66 Azerbaijan |
| 7 | 63  Montenegro |
72  Portugal |
74 Montenegro |
62 Russia |
| 8 | 61  Iceland |
58  San Marino |
68 Iceland |
60 Montenegro |
| 9 | 57 Azerbaijan |
50 Iceland |
64  Albania |
59 Iceland |
| 10 | 40 San Marino |
43 Montenegro |
61  Estonia |
44 Portugal |
| 11 | 39 Portugal |
41  Belgium |
57 Russia |
37 Estonia |
| 12 | 36 Estonia |
41 Azerbaijan |
27  Latvia |
34 San Marino |
| 13 | 33 Latvia |
40 Latvia |
25 San Marino |
32 Belgium |
| 14 | 28 Belgium |
23 Albania |
24 Belgium |
32 Latvia |
| 15 | 22 Albania |
14  Moldova |
24 Moldova |
26 Albania |
| 16 | 13 Moldova |
13 Estonia |
17 Portugal |
10 Moldova |
Reminder: Albania, Montenegro, San Marino and Moldova used 100% jury officially.
Analysis: Every system had the same top 4 countries, and juries and televote only changed second and third (with funny enough the same amount of points). Almost everyone agreed on the amount of points to give Armenia as well. These prove that, with only 16 countries taking part and four of them using only televote, it tended to make all votes similar. And there’s common sense. Overall, 7 countries are through in all four systems: Netherlands, Sweden, Hungary, Armenia, Ukraine, Montenegro and Iceland. Televote and juries disagreed on 6 countries: Russia Portugal and San Marino were in the televote’s top 10 but not in the juries’ who had Azerbaijan, Albania and Estonia instead. As for the two systems, old and new, they have 9 in common. Because Portugal was dead last with juries when it was as high as 7th in televote, it would have gone through in the old system that favors well liked songs regardless of how they did below 10th (so Portugal’s last place in jury does not matter). Same thing happened with Estonia, dead last of televote, pushing down to 12th. However, in the new system, San Marino’s only 13th place in juries help them get the extra point to qualify in the last qualification place above Portugal and Estonia! If you want some math mysteries, look at Albania, 14th in televote, 9th in juries and 15th in both systems… Belgium, Latvia and Moldova are out in all systems.
And here’s the Semifinal 2 results to compare:
| Official results | Televote results | Jury results | Old system | |
| 1 | 169  Austria |
165 Austria |
138 Austria |
167 Austria |
| 2 | 125  Romania |
126 Romania |
117  Finland |
124 Romania |
| 3 | 97 Finland |
116  Poland |
113  Malta |
104 Finland |
| 4 | 92  Switzerland |
98 Switzerland |
100  Norway |
86  Belarus |
| 5 | 87 Belarus |
91  Greece |
99 Romania |
82 Switzerland |
| 6 | 77 Norway |
86 Belarus |
71 Belarus |
82 Poland |
| 7 | 74 Greece |
63 Finland |
70  F.Y.R. Macedonia |
72 Norway |
| 8 | 70 Poland |
55 Norway |
60  Slovenia |
69 Greece |
| 9 | 63 Malta |
48 Slovenia |
52 Greece |
67 Malta |
| 10 | 52 Slovenia |
47  Ireland |
51 Switzerland |
50 Slovenia |
| 11 | 36  Lithuania |
44 Lithuania |
41 Lithuania |
39 F.Y.R. Macedonia |
| 12 | 35 Ireland |
36 Malta |
34 Poland |
35 Lithuania |
| 13 | 33 F.Y.R. Macedonia |
28 F.Y.R. Macedonia |
33  Georgia |
30 Ireland |
| 14 | 19  Israel |
26 Israel |
33 Ireland |
18 Georgia |
| 15 | 15 Georgia |
15 Georgia |
32 Israel |
17 Israel |
Reminder: Georgia and Macedonia used 100% jury officially.
Analysis: This was a smaller semifinal (only 15) and it was more spread out. Austria of course won every round, Romania did very well except juries had it only 5th. Finland, jury’s runner-up, but never been a favorite of televote, made it third in both systems. However, the two disagreements were Malta and Poland: both finished 3rd and 12th in juries and televote! The two systems created the same top 10 and therefore all 9 countries (besides Malta and Poland) were through in the end. Televote had Ireland 10th and juries had Macedonia 7th! Lithuania almost made it again, but no one had it better than 11th and Israel and Georgia were also never qualified and battled last place depending on the system. uries had the bottom 4 very close (34, 33, 33 and 32 points) when televote had Georgia definitely last. The new system means Georgia gets last, but the old one would have had Israel.
More things to think about.:
- The draw, does it matter? Regardless of songs, the first half and second half countries managed to get 5 from each in both semifinal. So there’s no pattern but it definitely says something that it has to be 5 from first half, 5 from second half, as if there was a wave of good and bad songs alterning: and after all, isnt it what chosing the draw is all about? The first song qualified in both semifinals as well as the last three. More interestingly, Romania went from 2nd in semifinal 2 to 12th in the final, going last in semifinal and 6th in the final out of 26…
- It’s interesting to note that there’s often a gap between the two semifinals linked to the “random” pot system. In 2008, only one song from the second semifinal made it to the top 10, Portugal the runner-up in it came 13th. This year, only two songs from the top 10 came from the second semifinal, seven from the first semifinal. Austria (1st) and Norway (6th) managed to did well 1s and 8th respectively in front of the first semifinalists. Funny that Norway made a huge come back the other songs in the Top 5 in second semifinal did quite well: Romania (12th), Finland (11th), Switzerland (13th), Belarus (16th). So how did Norway do much better? More countries vote in the final, and also point wise, it’s almost the same results for Norway (+10) when the top 5 except Austria from semi 2 dropped points in comparison to semifinal 1.
- Now that we know the full detailed results that DR and the EBU had Tuesday night, we can see what choices were made in the final’s draw. And funny enough, the two winners of the semifinals, drawn randomly first half and second half were given the same spot there: 11th (11th and 24th), which is near the end of the half, but two spots before the actual end, which was given to a semifinal runner-up (Sweden) and a Big 5 (UK), two songs tipped as favorite for the title. And in between 11th and 13th (24th and 26th)? Again a Big 5 (Germany), considered as a non-chance for the title, and a semifinal 10th, San Marino. And to open up each half, in the first half, Ukraine and Belarus, 5th in both semifinals to have a rather averagy but not bad opener, and a Big 5 (France) which was seen as very likely bottom 5. These are scary facts that do tend to prove what we, at the Eurovision Times, were blaming the non-random draw: they say it’s to make a better show based on songs’ genre. But actually, they think that it’s a better show when we get good and bad songs alternating with one another. So in the end, we will get a very “balanced” show but sadly, there’ll be no final’s results and the broadcasters will “fix” the idea of what a song does based on the semis only. Surprise? We got 5 songs in the top 10 in the first half, 5 in the second half and then 11th in the second half, 12th in the first half, 13th in the second half, 14th in the first half… Soon, we’ll know the results decided before the final even happens!
- And now a little more out-of-the-box thought. But isn’t it very odd that the winner and Eurovision runner-up, except for when they came from the Big 5, always came from two different semifinals? 2008 was the first year and there were no juries, so Russia 2008 is one rare “odd duck” of winning Eurovision without its semifinal. But still, Russia and Ukraine were in two different semifinals (Greece, overall 3rd, won Russia’s semifinal). Since then: Norway and Iceland in 2009 were in two different semifinals and won theirs respectively. Turkey won its semifinal in 2010 and Germany won. Azerbaijan came second behind Greece in first semifinal of 2011, Italy was already qualified. Azerbaijan 2011 and Russia 2008 who did not win their semifinals are also the lowest winners point wise of late. The last three years, the pattern was perfect: in 2012, Russia won semifinal 1 and Sweden semifinal 2; in 2013, Denmark won semifinal 1 and Azerbaijan semifinal 2; in 2014, Netherlands won semifinal 1 and Austria semifinal 2. So one has to wonder, why such a pattern, knowing that it’s random pots that decide which semifinal each song sings in? My hypothesis is that semifinals CREATE the overall result. Not that Austria and Netherlands wouldnt have done very well, including Conchita’s win, if both were in the same semifinal of course. But so far, winner and runner-up has never ever sung in the same semifinal. I think that half the countries have “their” winner from a semifinal and it helps that in the end, you remember more the songs you could have voted for. France for instance only shows the semifinal it votes in… My hypothesis is maybe wrong, but that’s an interesting fact that no one has put a light on before!
Well, apart from Azerbaijan, the jurors and televoters pretty much agreed when it came to the top songs in semi 1. I am overall very satisfied with this year’s voting, since it in many ways halted the extreme bloc voting we’ve had before. And the songs are doing it well on the charts too. Eurovision is going up (up- up- up- up)!
So Azerbaijan jury put Sweden, Austria & Germany in the last positions. The thing i don’t get is what were they expecting to gain from doing that?
On second thought it’s almost as if they were holding a grudge on the country where they won, on the country that won when they organized the contest and on the country that was about to win. But why?
Accordin’ to my list, Azerbaijan placed 12th in the semi-final televotes, and Belgium 11th.
both have 41, why is Azerbaijan 12th and Belgium 11th? Isnt it the number of countries who give it points that matter most nowadays?
Belgium got points from twelve countries whilst Azerbaijan was in the Top-10 of only seven if I’m not mistaken.
According to wikipedia,Azerbaijan is 11th with televoting and Blgium 12th.
Wikipedia is wrong then I think
Points for Azerbaijan:
8 from Russia
7 from Albania
7 from Montenegro
6 from Moldova
6 from San Marino
6 from Ukraine
1 from Holland/Netheröands
Points for Belgium:
7 from Moldova
7 from France
6 from Holland/Netherlands
5 from Azerbaijan
3 from Armenia
3 from Ukraine
2 from Latvia
2 from Montenegro
2 from Portugal
2 from Russia
1 from Hungary
1 from San Marino
This woz supposed to be a reply to my latest Az/Be related comment :/
All right I’ll make the change!
PS: Albania should have 23.
12 from Montenegro
5 from San Marino
3 from Denmark
2 from Belgium
1 from Sweden
it’s 2 from Denmark, no?
3 http://www.eurovision.tv/page/results?event=1883&voter=DK
I’m sorry but it CLEARLY says Albania 2pts there…
Checked it again, maybe you were looking at the wrong column? Or it’s me being blind. LOL. But in any case the total cannot be just 14.
You definitely pointed out at the problem being 23/22pts from the overall results and now you’re talking about the televote result?… can you please make CLEAR what’s the problem, you switched it now… *sigh*
let me quote you: CC May 16, 2014 at 23:15
“PS: Albania should have 23.
12 from Montenegro
5 from San Marino
3 from Denmark
2 from Belgium
1 from Sweden”
and you were wrong, Denmark gave it 2 and Albania has 22pts overall. Now is there anything else, you’re now talking about “14” which is how many Albania got in televote only…
I’ve been talking about televoting results all time.
you’re lying, you can read your previous message you’re talking about 23pts and EVERYONE can read it… why lie?
Where was I lying? 12+5+3+2+1 is 23 in my books, not 14 as written in the chart. By the way, I’m just trying to help so if anything I was making a mistake, not ‘lying’. :S
ooooooooooooh, I didn’t understand at ALL you were talking about 23 in televote. Please forgive me for wrong accusations! I thought you meant that the 22 in official result was wrong and that it was 23 because it was 3pts from Denmark and not 2. So I checked it out. You were talking about the 14 in televote which came from copy/pasting from Moldova.
Again, sorry. And thanks for helping of course.
*the
Yeah, I see now. No problem, I also could have made it clear that I’m referring to the televote results again. Just because we had already been talking about this (the Az/Be ranking) and nothing else before confusion did not really come to my mind.
By the way, isn’t it odd that 64 and 23 make a ‘mean value’ of 22 with the new system? Wow. :o
Yeah, it’s the magic of new system. The old one often makes more sense as “average” between televote and juries. But it still has its mysteries too ;)
I would have liked the telephone votes in semi 1, Portugal 72 points o.O did not expect that turn and they had San Marino and Montenegro in top ten (Y)
You didn’t expect Portugal to be in the Top-10?! :o
Well I heard that many were disappointing that it did not qualify, but actually no, thought they would have been a goner, the song did sound better then in the national final though, but for me Portugal 2014 sounds very dated as in 2012 imo
I too was kinda disappointed with the final version because Emanuel had been promising a *huge* revamp as well as with the dilettante performance. However, it was the only uptempo ethnic number and had a decent draw so I thought it was still clear viewers would put in the Top-10.
It’s just so odd that San Marino would have qualified even with 100% televoting. Nothing screams televote friendly with that one. With that said, I think that the actual result was the best for my personal taste. With 100% jury voting, we would have gotten rid of Russia, but instead got Estonia which I like even less. :P
And no system would have given us “Cake to bake” in the final. :(
It’s by far San Marino’s best entry up until today arguably along with their début) so I’m not surprised it qualified. :) I was very happy for Ralph Siegel. :)
It’s also my favourite San Marino song so far. I gave it (7/12) and would have put it in the final myself. It’s just that I don’t see anything special in it that would attract the televoters to vote for it. Plus that San Marino doesn’t belong to a voting bloc that can give them some extra points.
I was happy for Siegel too. He needs some success so that he finally can close the shop, so to say. I think “Maybe” is his best song, next to “Reise nach Jerusalem” (don’t kill me, Morgan! ;) ), for a very good while. :)
Amazing draw…
pity votes
Maybe…
Tbh, I hardly ever read these scoreboards. Too difficult for me to make all these calculations.
That’s why we write the analysis for you… Please do read that!
I just did. Thanks, Morgan.
:-)
Hola paul :)
More to come!
Semi 2, right?
And some overall thoughts on semis as well (draw and the balance of the two semis)
Ok; great job ;)
hola y todo para tu guapo :-) adelante….
you’re favourite, though I hope he won’t score in the final! :-)
https://uk.search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=Am5oK_0oI2gyzXDPJ6HdS7w4hJp4?fr=yfp-t-903-s&toggle=1&cop=mss&ei=UTF-8&p=xabier%20alonso
UK fan/UK favourite voted best 2nd place in ESC of all time , lovely song, and great singer IMO ;.)
Even if I like this one better than “Love enough for two”, I’m not that impressed by it either. My favourite runner-up in A Song for Europe is probably Michael Ball’s “As dreams go by”.
I think my A Song For Europe song is “Sink Or Swim”
Oh yes, had almost forgotten that one (long time since I listened to the old ASfE songs). Lovely song. :)
Quite African. And rocky. :)
This was also Michael Ball’s own favourite of the 8 ASfE songs he did. He said recently that he thought he might have won with this one as opposed to “One Step Out of Time”‘s 2nd place.
Many people seem to think that Michael Ball’s voice fits better for slow songs, rather than the up-tempo “One step out of time”. Whether “As dreams go by” would have done it better, I don’t know, and no matter what, I still love “One step out of time” too because it was the first Eurovision song I fell in love with. The love has faded a few inches since I was 14 years old (mostly because of his unnecessary and silly looking ott performance in Malmö) but it’s still catchy as hell and enjoyable. :)
My fave 1980 UK NF song is Pussyfoot’s “I Want To Be Me”… my rankings:
11 Pussyfoot “I want to be me”
7 Duke & The Aces “Love is alive”
12 Kim Clark “Surrender”
6 Jacqui Scott “Symphony for you”
10 The Main Event “Gonna do my best”
2 Maggie Moone “Happy everything”
1 Scramble “Don’t throw your love away”
9 Midnite “Love comes, love grows”
3 Plain Sailing “Easy”
5 Prima Donna “Love enough for two”
4 Sonia Jones “Here we’ll stay”
8 Roy Winston “Everything is all right”
I can’t believe Pussyfoot was your favourite
it was my favourite at the time when I was younger, and indeed is an evergreen song from my generation :-)
indeed “I want to be me” is a song from my and my friends generation :-)
Good taste (a)
good taste indeed, I and many people of my generation love that song!! :-)
for everyone here! to appreciate pussyfoot and above ranking, uK loves that song too :-)
I hope the few analysis and points to debate help stir things. Tell me what you think. Tomorrow, I’ll open the recommendation article for Fridas.
on est avec toi , ça nous interrese , ce qu’il se passe , bisous mwaaa!
The analysis is great. We are truly grateful for your hard work. :)
Excellent, analysis indeed. Thanks, Morgan. :) It confirmed what I said before; go back to the method used in 2012. The EBU should also go for 10 or more jurors per country, coming from different backgrounds. We’ve been saying that here since who knows when.
*Excellent analysis, indeed.
Thank you Shevek. Will you be on tomorrow for the start of Fridas?
You’re welcome. I think I will; I’ve been away for most of the week and I still have work to do tomorrow, but I will surely try to be here for the start of the Fridas.
I wonder what Shevek has to say about PORTUGAL scoring the same amount of telepoints as Russia in a Soviet oriented semi final…
Not to mention how everyone was pretty sure about Moldova qualifying thanks to points from all the friends…
San Marino getting through?
Do people still believe in blocks and neighbour voting?
I clearly not ! Give a country a good song and a good draw and voila ! It can qualify and even win coming from Andorra !
And of course Estonia scored DEAD last in televoting and got an average jury support as I was predicting against almost everyone!
I knew I should have listened to myself all the way. I always believed Estonia wouldn’t make it but then I let myself be affected by some people. Though I switched back in the last minute. :D
I was affected the same way about GRE. My initial prediction when our song was chosen was #20 in Final …
I too never believed in it. But I wasnt that active. However I did get Moldova wrong.
Great work once again Morgan !
Nice way for some people to see how all this anti televoting bias is extremely far stretched…
Azerbaijan 12th in televoting as well…Sigh!
we finally got together after all that happened before,this Eurovisiontimes, :-) as in you loved/hated me before I loved/hated you! :-) you loved Ireland 96 and I hated it 100%, , so we ended up loving each other :) jeje!!
Oh please,don’t be so cocky!You also predicted Latvia would qualify…lol
Yup!
I had one of LAT/ICE in instead of EST. Big deal !
And I am not arrogant at all. I mentioned every single fail of my prediction as well in the related article a few days ago !
Some people simply cant accept they lost their bets…:P
It was so close.Grr.Plus,you thought that Ukraine would claim the trophy which obviously didn’t happen.It was a weak 6th place.
I was never 100% sure the way you believed Armenia would win though…
lol
It WAS a winning song.The stage performance made all the difference.It was like back in 2006.No one i know and no one in here predicted that Austria would win.
You should have been more modest then and should have avoided jumping onto other peoples’ back for predicting SWE or even UKR as a winner…
Actually I predicted that Austria would win right here in ET comments after I had seen Conchita in the semi.
“Rise like a phoenix” was winning material from the very beginning, but most people refused to even consider it because it was performed by a drag queen. I would know: along with Italy, it was my favourite song this year. Unlike Italy though, It was clear ever since she performed live on Austria’s Dancing with the stars that this was one outstanding singer. Plus, it was a song perfectly suited to this particular performer: in terms of music, showcasing her vocal skills and in terms of lyrics, referring to her personal struggles to overcome the considerable obstacles she met in her way.
The OGAE crowd preffered to think in terms of “classic” europop like Sweden, Israel or Spain. The more “serious” euro-fans endlessly overhyped entries like Armenia, the UK and Hungary, supposedly because they sounded “credible” and “contemporary” (as if it is somehow “cool” to sound like the garbage currently played on the radio) Of course there was nothing behind those pretensions. The UK tanked, the televote proved Hungary was nowhere near as popular as people thought and Armenia wouldn’t have been near the top-5 if it wasn’t for the hugely expensive brainwash campaign it undertook the three months leading to the contest.
Ater her semi performance many people(me included) thought that Austria could win.I was referring to the time the song was selected and the months that followed.During this period,no one here wrote that Austria will win esc unless i missed the comment.
Conchita was popular with OGAE fans.She finished in 4th place.
As for Armenia,i don’t think there was any brainwashing campaign.I don’t know why people resort to conspiracy theories instead of accepting the obvious.Other people and not you thought the song was winning material from day 1.It didn’t win in the end but no one brainwashed us into believing it could win.
Belive me there was an expensive brainwash campaign all across the esc sites, manipulating the betting odds (Armenia was no.1 in the odds from the first day the song was presented – how likely is that?) and all over the media.
In Greece were I live, Armenia’s was the only ESC song (including the greek one!) getting extensive exposure across all media presented as the one and only favourite and inevitable winner. And that was not down to “cultural ties” either. I never remember an armenian song getting coverage in the local media before the contest. Even “Qele qele” only became a big hit in Greece after the contest.
In the end, I’m glad that democracy won and manipulation lost :)
And why is it unlikely for a song from Armenia to be #1 with the betting odds?Norway was #1 for a short period of time even before “Silent storm” was selected.You don’t really make sense.
Plus,what i find odd is that whenever an Eastern country is involved some people will always play the manipulation card.France was #1 back in 2011 with a much weaker song yet no one implied that this was due to manipulation.
I happen to live in Greece too but i didn’t see any big promotion campaign behind the song.The fact is that it was liked by Greeks who had it #1 with the televoting.
Here’s what I have to say. Had the song been sung for Russia it would have fared much better. The blocs were still there.
But Moldova came last…
I said Russia. Moldova is the poor relative of the bloc, if I may say so.
What about Azerbaijan scoring 12th?
They were supposed to be rich relatives till last year…
And it was nowhere near a winning song. I never believed in it from the beginning!
So,you think that “Rise like a phoenix” was more of a winning song than “Not alone”?An interesting view…I believe that it was the live performance and Conchita that did it.
No ! I had no idea and never mentioned any song as a run away winner this year. I couldn’t even believe ARM was winning betting odds by landslide.
After semi performances I was sure ARM wouldnt win and I was predicting :
1.NETH , 2.AUS , 3. ARM , 4.GRE , 5.SWE
I know.After the semi performances things became clearer for most of us.
But if you remember,after Conchita’s forst rehearsal i told you she would finish in the top-10 and you said it would be around 11-15.
Probably but one day before the Final , I predicted it as a runner up and I think we should all be judged by our latest predictions…
Disapointed for Suzy, she was one of my faves, and it’s so disapointing to know both televote and the old system would have seen her through to the final, it shows these types of songs still have a following in ESC, despite the juries and ET readers wishing they’d go away.
Also I want to see this as interval act next year
You do realise that Falco died in 1999?
*1998 a tragic accident he was only 40
I didn’t know that :/ thats really sad.
Maybe they could incorporate the song somehow, like Denmark did this year with Danksvis whatever its called (their first winner) and play it a song for something else.
The words Vienna calling are perfect for ESC 2015
still getting over pussyfoot and friends therelof!!
Well done Morgan for this analysis. I’ve informed my wife with the PhD in scientific research to review it :-)
A very small point of interest for us from Ireland. We did best in the tele vote. The mostly uninformed general public in Ireland complain about the tele vote as being what was against us. Obviously not.
Also Poland got through mostly on tele vote. So I presume boob power was what did it for them.
And Morgan what do you think these results say, if anything, about the status of automatic qualification for the big five. As you know I am interested in that.
Finally …. In our TV commentary this year it was said that a lot of countries have always qualified out of the semi’s. do you think this is something to be concerned about? I’ve never been one for blaming neighbour voting for rigging the ESC but this statistic is getting hard to ignore.
The Big 5 has very little say in the semifinal outcome anyway so they werent discussed here. But there is no real pattern that concern them per se: they won once, got second once since the juries were introduced, some years they do very well like 2011 (four of them in the top 15, three in the top 11) 2012 (three in the top 10) and some a bit less like 2014 (four in the bottom 10). To be fair, it’s mostly due to EACH country (France does awful, Italy and Germany tend to do very well). Sorry but as far as results goes, the Big 5 has neither advantage or disadvantage.
The fact that a lot of countries have always qualified is… wrong. In the first semifinal, Montenegro and San Marino qualified for the first time ever, Netherlands qualified for the second year in a row after failing to do from 2005 to 2012! Switzerland qualified for the third time ever from a semifinal after 2005 and 2011, they finished last in their semifinal in 2010 in the meantime and came close but without pushing it to top 10 in 2012 and 2013. Slovenia qualified this year, they failed to do so in 2005 or 2012 when people were almost certain they would. They also failed to do so in 2004, 2006 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2013 and this is their third qualification from a semifinal ever. Finland, Malta and Poland have also very poor qualification results and did it this year.
As for countries that usually qualify, Turkey failed in 2011 and Serbia in 2009 and 2013 and both did not participate this year. Moldova, who qualified every year between 2009 and 2013 (5 years in a row) finally missed it again this year. Armenia also had a miss in 2011 and withdrew in 2012. Georgia missed qualification in 2012 and 2014 even though they did well almost every other time. Lithuania, who shocked people with qualification in 2011, 2012 and 2013 came only 11th this year. Sweden famously missed in 2010 and Norway in 2011.
So the only countries who qualified in 2014 and had ALWAYS qualified from a semifinal so far are: Greece, Russia and Ukraine. Denmark and Iceland missed for the last time in 2007 when it was only one semifinal. Both qualified in every single year since the introduction of the TWO semifinals.
Let’s not forget not every country (see Montenegro and San Marino) qualified every year between 2010 and 2013 (four times) like Ireland did! Including a top 10 finish.
It’s not about the country per se. Yes, some televote is bias and has made it possible for a country like Russia to start with around 40pts above everyone ese. But Russia failed to get a top 10 in 2009, 2010 and 2011 in a row! On the other hand, when Russia was 16th in 2011, Ireland was 8th. It’s more about each country’s approach to the contest really that explains their qualification or not. Ukraine dearly loves the contest and each year tries very hard in their live performances and revamp to get the best result possible. And it shows.
Azerbaijan has also qualified every year since their debut.
Romania too, no?
I guess I should look things up before replying, this was top of my head!
No worries, it’s not like one of them failed this year. Although it scares me how Romania made it all the way to 2nd in that semi and how Greece died at 9th. Maybe well see the demise of one of the unbeatables next year?
well, there’s the fact that Romania went last which might help, as I said, it went behind Norway and Finland (barely) in the final with a rather awful draw. But then it still got 9th in televote. So either Romania has a lot of diaspora bias (but their 17th place in 2011 tend to say that this bias is far from being strong enoug on its own to push it to 9th in televote in 2014), either the generic eurodance track is still more popular than we thought today.
Yes,you’re right!
Oh right! Well add it then. Four out of 20 possible, but then 2014 proved Azerbaijan’s run might come to an end. I’m sure Ukraine and Russia can “fail” too, but both countries really try every year with big prop-full performances, so even if they fail to do top 10 (like Russia 2011), that’s enough to push them in the semifinal top 10
By the way the reference to my wife’s PhD was a compliment to the quality of your work!!!!
I have a PhD in literature. So, I’m not a scientific but do know how to work an analysis. And I even hesitated to put the word “analysis” for I believe this isnt YET an analysis, just the excerpt of the interesting stat elements of the charts. But witht the word “analysis” I was trying to get more people to read the paragraphs ;)
IMO boob power got Poland the points the song deserved but wouldn’t normally get because it was rap and partly sung in Polish. Poland definately deserved to finish in the TOP10 much more than Denmark or Spain.
I’m getting all confused to be honest..I read somewhere else that Latvia had made it with televoting only and definately Estonia was not last with televoting either (I think on wikipedia).I also thought Montenegro did not make it with televote and Portugal was 6th in the televoting in the semi. Anyway, I will trust you Morgan although I have read many differen variations of the results..
Semi 1 : Well the top 4 (or 5) was clear. Portugal would have made it through with the old system instead of San Marino (I am positely surprised that Valentina qualified with televoting only. There is also an unusual for jury vote gap after russia in the jury rankings and it makes San Marino’s qualification even more impressive. So only Portugal lost under the new system. I am glad that San Marino made it instead though.Moldova did pretty bad, it was probably too over the top or simply it was the ex soviet that could not get the votes to survive the semi..Tanja deserved better, much better and I am glad she did well with the juries at least !
Semi 2 : Austria won it fair and square and Romania was a relatively close 2nd. I am so glad Finland did so well with the juries, these boys definately deserved it (again I thought Malta was 2nd with the jury vote but anyway..). Belarus finishing even higher with the old system is a nightmare really…I can’t believe this did so well..The bottom 4 of the jury vote was pretty clear as well…Sad to see Israel last or that Mei would have finished last overall with the old system..So glad for Switzerland ! If only Sebalter has done a bit better with the juries…Also glad that Ireland was through with televote. Malta got what it deserved with televote imo and I can’t understand the love from the jury. If Malta and Switzerland swapped places in jury vote I would be more than happy.Anyway. Glad for the way the juries treated Poland. Interesting to see FYR Macedonia doing well with the jury vote , very unpredictable imo. Lithuania was borderline everywhere…Israel and Georgia the doomed ones obviously…Last but not least I am very glad to see my favourite (Norway) improving it’s placing in the final given these results. Go Carl :)
As a last note I believe the balance of the draw as described by Morgan in the article (I consider these placings a coincidence to be honest) is quite nice and it’s working I think. One semi final may feature countries with less population and viewers thus resulting to a smaller number of people who have seen an entry twice by the final (and let’s face it repetition in music does work beneficially) thus starting with somewhat of a disadvantage. I believe the draw can help that and give songs from both semis more a balanced chance to the degree its possible. But I consider the whole thing rather insignificant to be honest..
On your last point about the top countries being from different semis etc, it’s definately interesting and your theory about each entry having a following based on the semi it competes in having a following is consistent with what I described on the previous paragraph as well. We’ll see how it works out in the years to come.
Russia did have 73 televoting pts and Portugal 72.Montenegro received 43 pts.
Of course,the problem here is that we count the votes of Albania,San Marino and Moldova as televoting pts too when we know they used juries-only votes. :S
It’s quite confusing indeed.
as dimitri said, this is using the “only jury” votes as televote as well, therefore it’s “confusing” and sometimes makes televote and jury look more similar than they were!
Thanks for all the effort Morgan! :) The analysis is interesting, especially the two last points about the draw and semi finals. The draw never had a good flow for me; it felt like they were going for too much contrast and just went “ballad, uptempo, ballad, uptempo, etc.” without any thought to actually crafting a show that went smoothly. Quite often, the songs clashed with one another (Montenegro v. Poland? Germany v. Austria AND Sweden? Give me a break.) and the show felt jittery and disconnected as a result. Of course, this is all my opinion but I do think that a draw, at least, would make sense of the craziness. Now we have to speculate as to why songs were where they were and an apparent agenda from the EBU comes to light, unfortunately.
As for the semi-finals, I’d never thought about that before but it makes a lot of sense. The only way to combat that would be to force everyone to vote in each semi, but then that defeats the point of the pots and allocation. I guess there’s not really a solution to this problem, but at least it’s still a random decision as to who’s in which semi.
“but at least it’s still a random decision as to who’s in which semi.” exactly, and therefore, since it’s obviously a good thing, we should also move back to “random draw” for the final as well, and see what happens with a tiny bit of chance ;)
That’s a novel concept. :P
[…] analysis has been done (The Eurovision Times published a a few particularly good ones you can find here and here if you haven’t checked them out yet) so this is more of an overview accompanied by catty […]