WSPEEDI Simulation Showed 10 Terabecquerels/Hour Iodine-131 in Chiba on March 15 Last Year, Data Still Not Disclosed

10 terabequerels = 10,000,000,000,000 becquerels.

The system also calculated the amount of radioactive cesium to be 1 terabecquerels/hour each for cesium-134 and cesium 137. And the Japanese government is still sitting on the data.

WSPEEDI simulation system can predict the dispersion of radioactive materials in the hemisphere, in 3D.

From what Jiji Tsushin reports, the WSPEEDI simulation was done on March 15 upon request from the Ministry of Education and Science. For whatever reason, the Ministry decided to not announce it (for that matter, not let anyone know about it, till April 3, 2012).

On the very next day, on March 16, the Ministry announced that SPEEDI and WSPEEDI would now be the responsibilities of the Nuclear Safety Commission, and instructed the Japan Atomic Energy Agency to send the data to the Commission, who either sat on it or didn't even know they were now in charge of SPEEDI/WSPEEDI.

There is another interesting bit of information in the Jiji article below. The simulation was ordered by the Ministry of Education, and one of the parameters was that radioactive materials were released at about 9PM on March 14, 2011. That's about the time (9:18PM to be exact) when 2 safety relief valves were opened in Reactor 2, probably releasing a large amount of radioactive materials through a breach in the Suppression Chamber, according to the research paper by Fumiya Tanabe of Sociotechnical Systems Safety Research Institute.

If that's the case, the government must have known that the Reactor 2 Suppression Chamber had already failed, and opening the safety relief valves would release a large amount of radioactive materials from the breach. So they ordered the WSPEEDI simulation specifying the time of the release at 9PM on March 14.

Jiji Tsushin (4/3/2012):

千葉で「ヨウ素１０兆ベクレル」未公表＝昨年３月、世界版ＳＰＥＥＤＩ試算

WSPEEDI Simulation last March: 10 terabecquerels[/hour] of radioactive iodine in Chiba, data not disclosed yet

　東京電力福島第１原発事故で、昨年３月１５日、放射性物質の拡散予測データ「世界版ＳＰＥＥＤＩ」の試算結果で、千葉市内でヨウ素の濃度が毎時１０兆ベクレルという高い値が出ていたにもかかわらず、文部科学省と原子力安全委員会の間で十分な連携が取られず、現在も公表されていないことが３日、分かった。

On March 15 last year after the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant accident started, the WSPEEDI simulation of the dispersion of radioactive materials predicted the very high density for radioactive iodine in Chiba City in Chiba, at 10 terabequerels per hour. However, there was no effective communication between the Ministry of Education and Science and the Nuclear Safety Commission, and the data has still not been disclosed.

　文科省や安全委によると、世界版ＳＰＥＥＤＩは放出される放射性物質の拡散状況を半地球規模で予測するシステム。日本原子力研究開発機構が同システムを運用しており、昨年３月も文科省の依頼を受け、試算を行っていた。

According to the Ministry of Education and the Nuclear Safety Commission, the WSPEEDI system is capable of simulating the dispersion of radioactive materials emitted on a hemispheric scale. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) operates the system, and it was conducting the calculations upon request from the Ministry of Education in March last year.

　それによると、福島第１原発から昨年３月１４日午後９時ごろに放出された放射性物質が拡散した結果、千葉市内で同１５日午前６～７時、ヨウ素の濃度は毎時１０兆ベクレル、セシウム１３４、１３７もそれぞれ同１兆ベクレルと推計された。

According to the calculations, as the result of radioactive materials released from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant at about 9PM on March 14, 2011 and dispersed, Chiba City would have 10 terabequerels/hour radioactive iodine (I-131) between 6AM and 7AM, and 1 terabequerel/hour of cesium-134 and 1 terabequerel/hour of cesium-137.

　この試算データの評価について、文科省は安全委の担当と判断し、同１６日に安全委へデータを送るよう同機構に指示した。同機構はメールに添付して送信したが、安全委は重要情報と認識せず、放置したという。同様にデータを受け取っていた文科省も、安全委に公表するよう連絡しなかった。

The Ministry of Education then decided that the Nuclear Safety Commission should be in charge of evaluating this data, and instructed JAEA to send the data to the Nuclear Safety Commission on the next day, March 16. JAEA sent the data as email attachments to the Nuclear Safety Commission, but the Commission didn't see the data as important, and didn't do anything. The Ministry of Education, who had received the data, did not contact the Commission and tell them the data should be made public.

I think the Ministry of Education got scared, seeing the data.

They didn't want to be the one to handle such "hot" data. So they passed it on to the Nuclear Safety Commission under Dr. Haruki Madarame, who was apparently so overwhelmed by the nuclear disaster and missing sleep that he doesn't even remember what he was doing or saying in the first 1 week of the accident.

What a luck that Japan had, having these people in the government.

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("Now They Tell Us" Series) Strontium Was Detected 62 Kilometers from Fukushima I in April and May, Says Ministry of Education

Update, or rather, review: The numbers are much higher than what was found in the area inside the 10-kilometer radius (actually 2 kilometers from the plant, 68 becquerels/kilogram). The number for strontium-90 in Akogi in Namie-machi (250 becquerels/kilogram) is approaching the number found at Fukushima I Nuke Plant (570 becquerels/kilo).

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Does it take that long to analyze the soil samples for strontium? (I know, I know...)

Asahi Shinbun reports that radioactive strontium was detected in soil as far away as 62 kilometers from the plant. The samples were taken between April 10 and May 19.

What's hilarious in the article is the so-called expert's comment, basically saying "Where there's cesium there's strontium. So of course we see strontium in the soil. But don't worry, if you don't eat much cesium, observing the government's provisional limit which may or may not stays the same, you're OK."

Well, he had been awfully quiet about that bit of information until asked by the Asahi reporter who wrote the piece. Disingenuous of Asahi Shinbun also; it is the first time that I remember, that any newspaper has said "where there's cesium, strontium is supposed to be there also." Asahi had a chance to say so from the day one, but didn't bother.

Non-government, non-experts like the rest of the Japanese already suspected it from long ago, particularly when they knew that strontium, plutonium, uranium, even americium, of Fukushima origin had been detected in the US.

From Asahi Shinbun (12:00AM JST 6/9/2011):

　文部科学省は８日、放射性ストロンチウムが東京電力福島第一原子力発電所から６２キロ離れた福島市など、福島県内１１カ所の土壌で新たに検出されたこと を明らかにした。放射性セシウムが検出されたところでは、微量に見つかるとされており、それが証明された形だ。放射性ストロンチウムには半減期が長いもの があって、体に入ると長期間影響を及ぼす可能性があり、監視が必要だ。

The Ministry of Education and Science disclosed on June 8 that radioactive strontium had been detected at 11 locations in Fukushima Prefecture, including Fukushima City which is 62 kilometers away from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant. A small amount of strontium is supposed to be found where radioactive cesium is also found, and now it's been proven so. Some strontium radioisotopes have long half-life, and they could affect the body for long time if ingested.

　検出されたのは４月１０日～５月１９日に採取された土壌。福島市では半減期約２９年と長いストロンチウム９０が１キロあたり７７ベクレル、半減期約５０日と短いストロンチウム８９が５４ベクレル検出された。

Radioactive strontium was found from soil samples taken from April 10 to May 19. In Fukushima City, strontium-90 with half-life of 29 years was found in 77 becquerels per kilogram, and strontium-89 with half-life of 50 days was found in 54 becquerels per kilogram.

　最も多かったのは浪江町赤宇木で、それぞれ２５０ベクレルと１５００ベクレル。北西部に３６キロ離れた飯舘村では１２０ベクレルと１１００ベクレルで、 これまでに２０キロ圏内で検出されていた値よりも高かった。ほかに田村市、広野町、川内村、南相馬市、二本松市でもストロンチウムが検出された。文科省は 採取した土壌をさらに細かく分析するという。

The highest numbers come from the Akogi district in Namie-machi, with 250 becquerels/kg strontium-90 and 1,500 becquerels/kg strontium-89. In Iitate-mura, 36 kilometers northwest of the plant, 120 becquerels/kg strontium-90 and 1,100 becquerels/kg strontium-89 were detected; these amounts were even higher than those that had been detected earlier within 20 kilometer radius from the plant. Radioactive strontium was also detected from the soil samples from Tamura City, Hirono-machi, Kawauchi-mura, Minami-Soma City, Nihonmatsu City. The Ministry of Education and Science will further analyze the soil samples.

　放射性ストロンチウムはセシウムに比べ、炉心がより高温になってから溶け出し、気化する。それが検出されたことは、炉心が早い段階で溶け出し、その後に放射能の放出につながったことを意味するとみられる。

Radioactive strontium melts at a higher temperature than cesium to be volatilized. The fact that strontium has been detected would mean that the reactor core started to melt from the early stage of the accident, and then radioactive materials were released.

　ストロンチウムは人体に入ると、骨にたまる性質がある。原子力安全委事務局の加藤重治・内閣府審議官は「ストロンチウムはセシウムに対して一定の割合で 存在している。そのため、食べ物からの取り込み分はセシウムの規制値を守っていればストロンチウムについても影響はない。ただ、土壌から体内に取り込まな いよう注意すべきだ」と話している。

Once ingested, strontium tends to accumulate in bones. The Japanese government's Nuclear Safety Commission's spokesman Shigeharu Kato says, "Strontium exists at a certain ratio to cesium. Therefore, as long as the safety limit for cesium in food is observed, there is no ill effect from strontium. But caution is necessary not to ingest it from the soil."

The Nuclear Safety Commission: "We knew that."

I guess they didn't feel like announcing it.

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#Fukushima I Nuke Accident: Japan's Nuclear Safety Commission Ready to Loosen Already-Loose Radiation Safety Limit for Foods

The Nuclear Safety Commission headed by Haruki "Detarame ('Falsehood'; his cute nickname by the irate Japanese citizens)" Madarame has proposed that the Japanese government loosen the provisional safety limits for foods, as the Fukushima nuclear disaster continues.

(Oh by the way, did you know the provisional safety numbers for radioactive materials in foods, milk and drinking water were decided on the basis of 5 millisieverts per year radiation exposure?)

From Mainichi Shinbun Japanese (6/2/2011; emphasis is mine):

内閣府原子力安全委員会は２日、食品や飲料水に含まれる放射性物質の暫定規制値を見直す必要があるとの見解を示した。 　食品衛生法は放射性物質に関する基準がない。日本は東京電力福島第１原発の事故を受け、年５ミリシーベルト以下になるよう食品ごとの暫定規制値を 設定した。これは、国際放射線防護委員会（ＩＣＲＰ）が行政による出荷制限の目安として勧告している数値の中で、最も厳しい数値。しかし、事故が長期化し 実態に合わないとの声があり、安全委の代谷誠治委員も同日の臨時会で「暫定値を金科玉条のように使うのは望ましくない」と述べた。

On June 2, the Nuclear Safety Commission under the Cabinet Office indicated the need for revising the provisional safety limits for the radioactive materials in foods and drinking water. Japan's Food Safety Law does not have the formal safety standards for radioactive materials. After the Fukushima I Nuke Plant accident, the Japanese government has set provisional safety limits for radioactive materials for each food item so that the total radiation [from food and water?] would be below 5 millisieverts per year. This number is the most strict one among the numbers recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) as the government guidelines to restrict the shipment [of the food items]. However, as the Fukushima accident continues, some experts have voiced concern that [these provisional numbers] do not fit the actual situation [i.e. they are too low]. Commissioner Seiji Shiroya spoke in the ad-hoc meeting of the Commission on June 2 that "It is not desirable to use the provisional numbers as if they were set in stone."

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Haruki "the Detarame (Falsehood)" Madarame's Furious Backtracking on His Remark about Recriticality in Reactor 1 at #Fukushima I Nuke Plant

He senses a danger that his cushy and prestigious position as the head of the Nuclear Safety Commission is in jeopardy over his alleged remark which may have caused the delay in cooling the Reactor 1 RPV.

It is hard to believe he is a scientist and not a lawyer or politician. With that fine parsing ability of the words, he could make a wonderful assistant to a certain President of the United States (there are many candidates).

First, it was reported (see my post) that when Japan's Prime Minister Kan sought the advice from Madarame regarding the seawater injection to the Reactor 1 Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) on the evening of March 12 (by which time, now we all know, the entire core melted down) Madarame said:

"There is a possibility of recriticality if seawater is injected."

After that remark was publicly announced at the government-TEPCO joint press conference, Madarame was furious, and took it as a personal insult (see my post). His rebuttal?

"I couldn't have said such a thing."

But then, a talk ensued among the concerned parties including Madarame, and a "compromise" remark emerged. Now, Madarame's remark is modified thus:

"The possibility of recriticality if seawater is injected is not zero."

To an uncritical, non-scientific mind, that still means "there is a possibility".

Not so. The latest narrative coming from this ex-Tokyo University professor and current chief of the Nuclear Safety Commission who assured PM Kan that "the nuclear reactors at Fukushima are OK, they will never explode" on their trip to the plant on March 12 morning is this (from Yomiuri Shinbun article in Japanese):

"When I say 'the possibility is not zero', it means 'it is practically zero'."


Let me know when you figure that out.

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PM Kan's Hamaoka Nuke Plant Shut Down Request Was Made Under Pressure from the US

Shigeharu Aoyama, former journalist and a current member of Japan's Nuclear Safety Commission who went in and took the ground-level video of Fukushima I Nuke Plant on April 22 and caused consternation at Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, appeared on Asahi TV on the morning of May 8 (Japan Time) and revealed that Prime Minister Naoto Kan requested that Chubu Electric Power Company shut down Hamaoka Nuke Plant because of a strong pressure from the United States since early April.

So much for Kan's words, that he was requesting the shutdown for the "safety and security of the Japanese citizens". (See my previous post on Hamaoka.)

The interest of the US, alleges Aoyama, is the safety of its base in Yokosuka, home to the US 7th Fleet, which is downwind from Hamaoka.

Aoyama said he himself received phone calls from both the US Defense Department and the State Department, and was told by the US officials: "We're just out of Fukushima. That Hamaoka..." (These are his words in English, in the video.)

Aoyama also revealed that the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) did the estimate of power demand and supply in case of Hamaoka shutdown at the request from the government, but the Prime Minister didn't request to see the estimate before he made the "request" to Chubu Electric to shut down Hamaoka.

Well, METI bureaucrats didn't bother to offer, either.

As Aoyama said, the area that Chubu Electric covers has Toyota, Honda, and Suzuki, among other companies large and small. Oops.

The video is in Japanese. The talk about Hamaoka and the US pressure is right in the beginning.

(h/t あ)

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Japan's Nuclear Safety Commission Chief: "I Have No Idea Why Professor Kosako Is So Upset!"

And this hilarity from the head of Nuclear Safety Agency, who says he is "genuinely puzzled as to what Professor Kosako is upset about", from Sankei Shinbun (5/2/2011; my translation, emphasis is mine):

　福島第１原発の事故を受け、文部科学省が定めた校庭の利用基準「年間被曝（ひばく）線量２０ミリシーベルト以下」をめぐって与党内からも見直し論が出る 中、政府の原子力安全委員会（班目春樹委員長）は２日、定例会議を開いたが、同問題はまったく議題とならなかった。また、政府の対応を批判した小佐古敏荘 （こさこ・としそう）東大大学院教授の内閣官房参与辞任について、班目委員長は会議終了後、「新聞報道しか知らないが、正直に言って小佐古氏が何に憤慨し ているのかわからない」と述べた。

Even as the members of the ruling party have started to call for the revision of the annual allowable radiation exposure limit of 20 millisieverts for children for using school yards, the number set by the Ministry of Education and Science, the government's Nuclear Safety Commission chaired by Haruki Madarame held its regular meeting on May 2. There was no discussion whatsoever about the issue in the meeting. Referring to the resignation of Professor Toshiso Kosako of Tokyo University as the Prime Minister's special advisor over the government response to the nuclear crisis at Fukushima [and in particular about the radiation exposure for children], Madarame said, "I only know what's reported in the newspapers, but honestly, I haven't a clue as to why Professor Kosako is so upset."

　同委員会は先月１９日、福島県の小学校などでの屋外活動における積算放射線量の基準について文部科学省から助言要請を受け、「年間２０ミリシーベルトま で」と回答。小佐古教授は先月２９日の辞表提出時、「（この数値を）基礎に毎時３・８マイクロシーベルトと決まったが間違いだ」と指摘した。

On April 19, the Ministry of Education and Science requested advice from Madarame's Nuclear Safety Commission on the [new] standard for the cumulative radiation level for outdoor activities in schools in Fukushima Prefecture, and the Commission told the Ministry "up to 20 millisieverts per year" was acceptable. When he tendered his resignation on April 29, Professor Kosako pointed out that "3.8 microsieverts per hour limit was decided, based on (this number of 20 millisieverts per year), but that is a mistake."

　会見した班目委員長は「子供たちが年間２０ミリシーベルトを浴びても良いと言ったことはない。（被曝量を）可能な限り低くしていくのが原則だ」とし、文 科省が同委員会に報告した同県内の小学校などでのモニタリング結果についても「われわれは満足していない。『毎時３・８マイクロシーベルトを下回ったから 校庭を使わせる』との非常に安易な報告と受け止めた」と述べ、文科省側への不満を示した。

In the press conference [after the meeting], Madarame said "We never said it was OK for children to be exposed to 20 millisieverts radiation per year. The basic rule is to minimize the radiation level." Regarding the monitoring data of the schools in Fukushima that the Ministry of Education and Science reported to the Commission, Makurame said, "We are not happy. We took it to mean the Ministry would allow the use of school yards as long as the radiation was below 3.8 microsieverts/hour."

　同委員会は文科省への回答にあたって、正式な会合を招集せず、助言要請からわずか約２時間後には「妥当だ」との助言をまとめたが、議事録も作成していない。

In advising the Ministry of Education and Science, the Commission didn't call a formal meeting, and gave the advice that "it was appropriate [to set the annual exposure limit for children at 20 millisieverts]" 2 hours after the advice was first sought. There was no minutes of the Commission's deliberation.

　こうした同委員会の手続きについて、小佐古教授は「法に基づく手順遂行に基づく判断に欠けたところがあるように見受けた」と指摘しているが、同委員会事務局は「法律に基づかない助言であり、手順遂行に問題はない」と話している。

The Commission's procedure was one of the things that Professor Kosako pointed out as shortfalls when he said "I thought it lacked in the judgment following the proper procedure based on law". The Commission says its advice is not based on law, and there is no problem in the procedure.

　班目委員長は「非常にせっぱ詰まった状況で会合を開くよりも、できるだけ早く回答すべきだと判断した」と弁明したが、「事故発生から数十日が経過し、いつまでも緊急時だというのは良くない。助言については議事録を残そうとの方針転換はしてきている」と付け加えた。

Madarame defended his Commission's advice, saying "We decided it would be better to give advice as soon as possible instead of holding a meeting in an emergency situation." But he added, "Since it's been more than a month since the accident, it cannot be an emergency situation much longer. As to the advice we give, we are thinking of creating a minutes [of the deliberation]."

Apparently, 4 Commissioners quickly exchanged ideas and decided on the 20 millisieverts per year limit for children, and that was promptly adopted by the Ministry of Education and Science. But the Commission denies that it ever said 20 millisieverts were acceptable. Something doesn't add up here, does it?

But aside from who really "advised" the Ministry of Education and Science on the final number, Commissioner Madarame comes across as another "space alien" just like the former Prime Minister Hatoyama, who doesn't seem to share the same common sense with the rest of us. He genuinely doesn't understand why Professor Kosako was in tears over the 20 millisieverts for children.

Madarame told [link is Japanese] the grandstanding Prime Minister Kan on their way to Fukushima I Nuke Plant on March 12, "But Prime Minister, the nuclear reactors won't blow! It is structurally impossible." It was possible, and they did blow. (Or at least Spent Fuel Pools did.)

And his Commission sat on the SPEEDI simulation data of the nuclear fallout from Fukushima, dutifully following the government order.

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#Fukushima I Nuke Plant: 154 Terabecquerels Per Day, Every Day

(Correction: The previous estimate was 1 terabequerel per hour, not per day. So, per day would be 24 terabequerels.)

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of radioactive iodine and cesium still spewing out of the plant, Japan's Nuclear Safety Commission now admits.

On April 12 during the joint press conference with Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) where they jointly announced the Fukushima I Plant accident was INES Level 7, the Commission assured the world that said that the release of radioactive materials from the plant had decreased to less than 1 terabecquerel per hour, or 24 terabecquerels per day.

It took the Commission 11 days to go from 24 terabecquerels per day to 154 terabecquerels per day. They say they miscalculated. What else have they, all nuclear experts, miscalculated?

From Yomiuri Shinbun (9:15PM JST 4/23/2011):

The Nuclear Safety Commission under the Prime Minister's Office disclosed on April 23 that the amount of radioactive materials being released from the TEPCO Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant was 154 terabecquerels per day (1 tera is 1 trillion) as late as April 5 when the amount being released was considered stabilized.

On April 5, the estimated amount of radioactive materials released from Fukushima I Nuke Plant was 0.69 terabecquerels/hour for iodine-131 and 0.14 terabecquerels/hour for cesium-137. When the numbers were recalculated according to the INES method (converting cesium amount into iodine equivalent), the amount released turned out to be 6.4 terabecquerels/hour (which was 154 terabecquerels per day. Previously, the Nuclear Safety Commission had simply added the numbers for iodine-131 and cesium-137, and announced it was less than 1 terrabecquerel per hour.

　内閣府原子力安全委員会は２３日、東京電力福島第一原子力発電所から大気中に放出された放射性物質の量が、放出量が落ち着いた今月５日の時点でも、１日あたり１５４テラ・ベクレル（１テラは１兆）に達していたことを明らかにした。

　５日に福島第一原発から大気に放出された放射性物質の推定値は、ヨウ素１３１が毎時０・６９テラ・ベクレル、セシウム １３７が同０・１４テラ・ベクレル。国際的な事故評価尺度（ＩＮＥＳ）で使われるヨウ素換算値で、ヨウ素とセシウムの合計量を計算し直すと、放出量は同 ６・４テラ・ベクレル（２４時間で１５４テラ・ベクレル）となることがわかった。同委員会はこれまで、５日ごろの放出量について、セシウムとヨウ素の量を 単純に合計し、「毎時約１テラ・ベクレル以下」と低く見積もっていた。

Hmmmm. The supposed nuclear power experts of the Committee didn't know how to calculate using the INES method? BS. Because on April 12 when they announced the total emission estimate of the radioactive materials from March 23 to April 5, they did say they converted the cesium amount into iodine equivalent.

Now, there's another interesting (but all too common by now) work of editing out some unpleasant information, no doubt practiced by the 4th column (the media) by themselves for the good of the community (no doubt). The earlier version of the same Yomiuri article (which I found on a Japanese message board) had the following sentence after where the current version ends:

If this amount [154 terabecquerels per day] continues to be released from the plant, it would be the equivalent of INES Level 6. [154 terabequerels per day for 90 days = 13,860 terabequerels.]

３か月、この状態が続いた場合の放出量は、ＩＮＥＳの「レベル６」の事故に相当する。

You can simply calculate it yourself to come to the same conclusion, but for the majority of people who wouldn't bother, if they weren't told they wouldn't connect.

The earlier version also had this plausible deniability comment from the Commission that it was nothing more than "guesstimate" and no cause for alarm:

The Commission said "The amount that was being released [as of April 5] is only an estimate; it could have wide variance and fluctuations. The radiation level in the air around the Nuke Plant is slowly falling, and it is not the level that would have immediate [negative] effect on health."

　同委員会は、「放出量はあくまでも推計で、誤差や変動も大きいと考えられる。
原発周辺での空間線量は徐々に下がっていて、ただちに健康に影響を及ぼす線量ではない」としている。

Sure. It is "safe" unless people immediately develop cancer and radiation burn.

But wait, there may be more! (Ah it never ends...and it's taking me a very long time to even write up this post...)

Here's the Nuclear Safety Commission's estimate of the total release of radioactive materials as of April 5. Looking at the chart (I added the English explanation), they did seem to think that after the surge on March 15 and 16 (after the Reactors 3 and 4 explosions) the daily release was hardly more than 24 terabequerels; the lines went flat after March 23 or so:

If it has been 154 terabequerels per day instead of 24 since March 23, that's already additional 4,160 terabequerels by now, which alone would translate into the INES Level 5.

An INES Level 5 "accident" every month, Level 6 every 3 months? Slow and steady wins the race to pass the Chernobyl accident...

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#Fukushima I Nuke Plant: Nuclear Safety Commission Sitting on Over 2,000 Radiation Dispersion Estimates

From Kyodo News English (4/18/2011):

The Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan has released only two computer-simulated estimates of radioactive substance dispersal since the nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant, although more than 2,000 of them were made, sources familiar with the matter said Monday.

The estimates were made using the Nuclear Safety Technology Center's networked computer system known as SPEEDI, or system sor prediction of environmental emergency dose information, developed and operated with a budget of about 12.8 billion yen.

The government commission released the two estimates on March 23 and April 11, including accumulated exposure to a radiation dose of more than 1 millisievert even outside a radius of 30 kilometers from the Fukushima plant that was crippled by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

The same news in Kyodo Japanese gives a bit more details:

The Nuclear Safety Technology Center in Tokyo, who runs SPEEDI, says it has been running the simulations taking into consideration the wind directions, rain, and amount of radioactive materials released. The Center has been making the 3-hour dispersion predictions ever since the accident happened. There are over 2,000 dispersion simulation charts drawn up so far.

The reason why the Nuclear Safety Commission hasn't disclosed the simulation results is that there's not enough data on the amount of radioactive materials released. "Simulations are different from the actual dispersions, and that would lead to misunderstanding," says the Commission. However, some of the simulation charts were similar to the actual dispersions.

風向、降雨といった気象や放射性物質の放出量など、さまざまな 仮定の条件に基づいた試算を繰り返している。ほかにも事故直後から１時間ごとに、その時点で放射性物質が１ベクレル放出されたと仮定して３時間後の拡散を 予測。これまでに作成した拡散試算図は、２千枚以上になるという。

　安全委は、試算図を公表しない理由について「放射性物質の放出量データが乏しい。試算図は実際の拡散状況と異なり、誤解を招きかねない」と説明するが、未公表の試算図の中には、実際の拡散と近似した傾向を示すものもあった。

Shoot these people. They are more keen on covering their behind and staying in good grace with their benefactor the government than warning their fellow citizens.

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#Fukushima I Nuke Plant: It Will Take Years, Says Nuclear Safety Commission

in order to cool the fuel rods in the reactors and the spent fuel rods. Years. They are saying 1 to 2 years just to restore the water circulation systems.

From Jiji Tsushin's article (3/29/2011) on March 29 press conference by Nuclear Safety Commission, whose chairman by the way may be in trouble for being too "candid", embarrassing the politicians:

It will take years to cool the fuel rods in the reactors and the spent fuel rods at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant.

When the power is cut off, the heat from the fuel rods would drop to a few percent of the heat during the normal operation and would further drop to 1 percent within 1 to 2 weeks. But after that, it wouldn't decrease very much. Therefore, the heat exchanger systems need be restored.

The pumps to draw sea water are broken, and it will take months till the replacement pumps arrives. The circulation systems must be restored within 1 to 2 years.

In order to store the water polluted with radiation, the plan should be made for storage ponds and pools.

Regarding the Reactor Pressure Vessels (RPVs) of the Reactors 2 and 3, it is natural to assume that there is a leak somewhere when the pressures do not rise as expected. The Commission suggests the possibility that the RPVs are broken.

　国の原子力安全委員会は29日の記者会見で、福島第1原発の原子炉や使用済み核燃料プールの冷却作業について「（必要な期間は）年オーダーと考えている」との見方を明らかにした。
　会見した代谷誠治委員は「核燃料の熱は運転を止めた瞬間に（運転時の）数パーセントに落ち、1～2週間で1％に落ち、そこからはなかなか落ちない」と説明。原子炉の冷却に使った水を海水と熱交換して循環させる系統の復旧が必要だとした。
　しかし、海水をくみ上げるポンプも故障し、発注だけでも数カ月かかるが、循環系統は1、2年で復旧させなくてはいけないと説明。破損した部分から漏れた汚染水を処理するために、池やプールのような貯蔵施設を準備する必要もあるとした。
　一方、2号機と3号機の原子炉圧力容器について、「圧力が上がらないということはどこかから漏れていると思うのが自然だ」と述べ、損傷の可能性を示唆した。　

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