The only way for Republicans to defeat Obama is for them to rally around Mitt Romney
I am writing this at 4:45 AM on the morning of the Iowa Caucus; an event that won't happen until this evening (in the early hours of tomorrow morning GMT). My car to take me to Sky News waits outside, the glow of the red taillights shimmering in the exhaust of the running engine.
Mitt Romney goes into this event stronger than ever, looking more presidential. Yes the battle will be fought hard for many months to come, but if - and it is still an if - Romney is selected to be the Republican candidate, I am seeing signs that the Party will come together.
This coming together will be more than the old adage of Republicans 'falling in line'. Yes, with the organised Romney, they will be in a line, probably one of the straightest and best managed lines in Republican history, but they will also be behind him. Solidly.
Mitt Romney knows how to find common ground with others, compromise and get his programmes through
Romney goes into Iowa leading the polls. The last poll, on the eve of Iowa, shows Romney with 24% of likely caucus goers. Ron Paul, the libertarian Texan has 22% and making a surprise showing as the new Conservative Evangelical wing's choice is former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum with 15%; he has been the biggest riser. The poll, by the Des Moines Register, is a serious one, there is a margin of error of +-4% which makes it a dead heat between the front runners and possibly puts Santorum up there as well.
From looking at the three-day trends, it looks like Santorum is taking his votes not from Mitt Romney, but Ron Paul as well as the other second-tier candidates.
Ron Paul will not win the nomination. He has as much chance as a celluloid cat chasing an asbestos mouse in Hell. One Republican strategist put it best: 'Paul has no ceiling... and no floor either. He has Ron Paul supporters and that is it.'
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Paul has an important contribution to the debate as a fiscal conservative but his isolationist foreign policy is as far-out as Neptune, his beliefs of government non-recognition, of marriage, decriminalisation of drug use; not to mention national security, or his position on Israel, is a non-starter. He can't beat Obama and in many ways, as a Libertarian purist, he is more ideological and in some ways, more to the left than Obama himself.
This is a year all about beating Obama. Republicans and many independents (who have joined the Tea Party in droves) are scared of another four years of Obama. Four years as a lame duck, devil may care, I plan to leave America in my image as an EU satellite state, with massive social change, entitlement spending, socialised medicine, whether they want-it-or-not, Obama. It can't happen.
So this will be a year of pragmatism; no fantasy politics here.
This will not be Palin's year, nor Jeb Bush's. Rudy Giuliani isn't even trying. Bachmann is losing steam and probably won't make it out of Iowa standing.
William F. Buckley, Jr. use to have an axiom about selecting the strongest conservative that would win. Better to have someone with 80% of your programme in office than someone with 95% or 100% losing it. In this case, that man is Mitt Romney. And in my own humble opinion, Romney is far more conservative that given credit for.
The reason Romney seems flip-floppy has more to do with the fact that he is a business man and a negotiator - something Obama is not. He knows how to find common ground with others, compromise and get his programmes through. One does not become a Republican governor of the most liberal state in the Union without the ability to compromise and bring people together. One doesn't make millions at Bain turning businesses around without the ability to negotiate or play well with others
Republican presidential hopeful, Rep. Ron Paul has as much chance as a celluloid cat chasing an asbestos mouse in Hell
This is a leadership skill. One that Mr. Obama lacks. Obama is an isolationist, he keeps to himself. Like the university professor, alone up front by the white board, sending out his message; it is a one-way process from his lips to the student's ears. The White House is not a university and we are not students.
Republicans are slowly realising that and will probably come around quicker than expected. If Romney wins Iowa, and then backs that up with a win in New Hampshire --where he is a local boy and stands at 40% in some polls, that will give him a strong out-of-the-gate showing. Even if he comes in second or third in Iowa, a win in New Hampshire will still give him a strong start.
The pre-game show is over. The debates, that gave every candidate equal billing on the same stage (call it the Clegg Effect) are over. Now the matrix turns to television and radio advertising to get the message out, organisation, organisation, organisation and all of that takes money. That will help candidates like Romney and to a lesser extent Rick Perry. Gingrich has raised some money, but the organisation is not in place. Santorum is also raising money now, but like Gingrich, ditto on the lack of organisation and PACs (non-connected political committees who are not limited in fund-raising) to back you.
One item that caught my eye was this press release from the Independence Hall Tea Party PAC, who claim that "On [28/8/10], the Independence Hall Tea Party sent 28 buses carrying over 1500 Patriots to Glenn Beck's Restoring Honor Rally. No other group sent more. Now that's a plug.
Anyway, this tea party PAC is supporting Romney. In their eyes, maybe Romney has finally had a go as the anti-Romney candidate. But my thoughts on pragmatism and the Buckley axiom are holding true.
Isolationist: Obama keeps to himself and can't play nicely with others
According to PAC President, Don Adams. 'We, as a Tea Party PAC, have set winning the White House as our number one priority in 2012. We believe Mr. Romney is the one candidate who can win the Republican nomination and defeat President Barack Obama in November.'
The Independence Hall PAC is a tri-state (Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania )regional PAC 'Mr. Romney is the only Republican candidate who has consistently polled even or ahead of President Obama in national surveys. He puts a number of 2008 blue states in play, including Michigan and New Hampshire. He also appeals to large numbers of independent voters.'
The Independence Hall PAC may not be the largest or, as they claim themselves that, 'We realize that a number of fellow Tea Partiers are not yet where we are in supporting Mitt Romney for President--and we respect their varied positions.'
However, they state, 'we felt compelled to make an endorsement in light of a counter-productive effort to stop Mitt Romney among some disparate elements on the right--often based on a religious intolerance of Mr. Romney's Mormon faith. We also think the notion that the Tea Party will support a 3rd party candidate after Mitt Romney becomes the Republican nominee, a notion most often advanced by the mainstream media, must be discredited,' Ms. Adams said.
They believe that the 'only way to defeat President Obama, whose policies are an anathema to conservatism and the Tea Party Movement, is to rally around his strongest opponent - Mitt Romney.'
