Tories take first lead over Labour in over two years, says ICM poll

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David Cameron rated more highly by women than by men
ICM poll put Labour at 31 per cent - a six-point slump since last month
Boost for David Cameron ahead of local and European elections on May 22

Published: 19:04 EST, 12 May 2014 | Updated: 02:51 EST, 13 May 2014

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David Cameron rated more highly by women than by men

The Conservatives have taken a lead over Labour for the first time in more than two years, according to two polls last night.

The first in a series of weekly surveys by Lord Ashcroft puts the Tories on 34 per cent, Labour on 32 per cent, with Ukip scoring 15 per cent and the Lib Dems on 9 per cent.

It also undermined the idea that the Conservatives were not popular with female voters, with David Cameron rated more highly by women than by men.

Meanwhile, an ICM poll for The Guardian put Labour’s support at 31 per cent, a six-point slump since last month and the party’s lowest ebb since June 2010. It put the Tories on 33 per cent.

The polls represent the first time since March 2012, just before the so-called ‘omnishambles Budget’ which prompted controversy over taxes on pasties and caravans, that the Conservatives have had a lead over Labour in any national survey.

They are a boost for David Cameron ahead of local and European elections on May 22, and suggest Tory fortunes are reflecting confidence in the economic recovery.

Chancellor George Osborne already holds a huge lead over his Labour rival Ed Balls regarding who is most trusted on the economy. In the ICM poll, 41 per cent of respondents said the Chancellor is doing a good job, against 36 per cent who think he is doing badly.

Labour’s 31 per cent is the lowest for the Opposition a year before a general election in any Guardian/ICM poll since 1986.

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The Tory lead will heighten growing tensions in Opposition ranks over the party’s strategy for next year’s general election.

A report for the New Statesman magazine suggests these could ‘burst into the open’ if Labour becomes the first Opposition party in 20 years not to win the European elections.

Most polls suggest Ukip will win. But ICM also put the Tories in the lead for the EU elections with 27 per cent, ahead of Ukip on 26 per cent, Labour on 24 per cent, the Greens on 10 per cent and the Lib Dems on 7 per cent.

Concerns among some Labour MPs increased last week after the party led by Ed Miliband (right) launched a much-mocked assault on the Lib Dems Nick Clegg (left) in an election broadcast

Concerns among some Labour MPs increased last week after the party launched a much-mocked assault on the Lib Dems, portraying Nick Clegg in an election broadcast as ‘the un-credible shrinking man’ assisting heartless Tory toffs.

They reinforced the impression that Ed Miliband hopes to win power next year by hanging on to the votes of disaffected Lib Dem supporters rather than reaching out further.

Labour only needs around 35 per cent to gain a Commons majority thanks to imbalances in the electoral map.

There are also said to be splits over Labour’s failure to promote a commitment to reform the EU, which was reportedly promised to shadow Cabinet members.

Although Tory strategists will be delighted to have taken a lead weeks ahead of EU and local elections, there will be concern that Ukip appears to have gained most from falling Labour support.

A poll lead of two would still leave Labour as the largest party in a hung parliament because electoral boundaries mean the Tories need far more votes than Labour to win because most of their seats have fewer voters than Labour constituencies.

Lord Ashcroft’s poll of more than 1,000 voters found that Mr Cameron is the only leader rated more highly than his party, with women viewing him more favourably than men.

But he said the results suggested that with a year to go till the general election, ‘nothing is settled’. More than half those who backed a party – 52 per cent – said they might vote differently, including 47 per cent of Ukip supporters.

A third poll, for Populus, yesterday put Labour on 36 per cent, the Conservatives on 35 per cent, Ukip on 13 per cent and the Lib Dems on 8 per cent.