A massive El Nino is coming! Forecasters say 'strong' weather event could bring relief to drought-stricken California

  • Forecast says El Nino conditions are likely to last another nine months 
  • US set to experience wetter-than-normal conditions along Gulf Coast 
  • In previous strong El Niño events, California has seen a 150 per cent to 200 per cent increase in rainfall 

A US government weather forecaster today warned that much-watched El Nino conditions are likely to last another nine months.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said there is a 90 per cent chance that El Nino would continue through this winter.

It added that it could help relief the drought in California and that there is an 80 per cent likelihood it would last into the Northern Hemisphere's early spring.

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The US National Oceanic and Atmosopheric Administration has detected warmer than average water surface temperatures around the equator of the Pacific Ocean (shown above) which indicates the arrival of El Niño

The US National Oceanic and Atmosopheric Administration has detected warmer than average water surface temperatures around the equator of the Pacific Ocean (shown above) which indicates the arrival of El Niño

WHAT IS EL  NIÑO

El Niño is caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator.

Usually the wind blows strongly from east to west, due to the rotation of the Earth, causing water to pile up in the western part of the Pacific.

This pulls up colder water from the deep ocean in the eastern Pacific. 

However, in an El Niño, the winds pushing the water get weaker and cause the warmer water to shift back towards the east.

This causes the eastern Pacific to get warmer.

But as the ocean temperature is linked to the wind currents, this causes the winds to grow weaker still and so the ocean grows warmer, meaning the El Niño grows.

This change in air and ocean currents around the equator can have a major impact on the weather patterns around the globe by creating pressure anomalies in the atmosphere. 

Across the contiguous United States, the effects of El Nino are likely to remain weak through the summer and become 'strong' in the late fall and winter, the CPC said.

El Nino, the warming of Pacific sea-surface temperatures, can have devastating consequences for agriculture.

It can trigger heavy rains and floods in South America and scorching weather in Asia and as far away as east Africa.

But the weather pattern also increases precipitation in key U.S. agricultural regions.

It can also reduce the likelihood of a busy hurricane season from June to November that can disrupt energy operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

Meteorologists have already confirmed that a growing El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is likely to lead to a fall in rainfall in the tropics and droughts across Africa and India.

El Nino events tend to warm the Earth's atmosphere by supressing the upwelling of cold water from the ocean that can absorb excess heat.

This could be good news for drought-stricken Califronia. In previous strong El Niño events, California has seen a 150 per cent to 200 per cent increase in rainfall.

'The stronger this event becomes, the more confident that next winter we'll see stronger precipitation in California and the whole southwestern United States,' Mike Halpert, an official at NOAA, told Time.

'This is a proper El Nino effect, it's not a weak one,' David Jones, manager of climate monitoring and prediction at the Bureau of Meteorology, told a media briefing earlier this year.

It is the weather system's first appearance in five years. 

'You know, there's always a little bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts, but across the models as a whole we'd suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Nino event.

An El Nino had been predicted to start in 2014 and officials said it was a 'near miss', but thresholds have now been hit in the tropical Pacific for the first time since March 2010.

'The onset of El Nino in Australia in 2015 is a little earlier than usual. 

'Typically El Nino events commence between June and November,' the bureau's Neil Plummer added in announcing the onset.

'Prolonged El Nino-like conditions have meant that some areas are more vulnerable to the impact of warmer temperatures and drier conditions.'

In Australia, El Nino is associated with below average rainfall and warmer temperatures in much of the country and a higher bushfire risk - a particular concern for parts of the country already in drought.

It is also expected to bring drier conditions to Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia, and heavier rainfall in the eastern Pacific and South American nations, raising the spectre of floods and landslides.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said there is a 90 per cent chance that El Nino would continue through this winter

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said there is a 90 per cent chance that El Nino would continue through this winter

The phenomenon can cause havoc for farmers and global agricultural markets.

Earlier this year, US forecasters had played down the effect.

Some meteorologists, however, have warned that this El Niño could combine with another slow movement of water temperature in the Pacific Ocean called the Pacific Decadal Osciallation (PDO).

The PDO reached record levels in December last year and January this year, and should it stay strong, it may combine with El Niño to increase global temperatures.

The arrival of this El Niño is considered to be late after scientists last year predicted they were expecting one last year, but the conditions failed to materialise. 

'There's still a little ways to go before we get to where this event should peak,' said Halpert.

The forecast could be good news for a drought-stricken California. In previous strong El Niño events, California has seen a 150 per cent to 200 per cent increase in rainfall

The forecast could be good news for a drought-stricken California. In previous strong El Niño events, California has seen a 150 per cent to 200 per cent increase in rainfall

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