Skip to main content
Report this ad

See also:

Projection shows Clinton defeats Donald Trump 419-119 on Electoral College map

As seen above, Hillary Clinton would dominate Donald Trump on the Electoral College map
As seen above, Hillary Clinton would dominate Donald Trump on the Electoral College map
Screenshot by Ryan Witt

Donald Trump announced his presidential campaign June 16, and according to a poll released yesterday from Public Policy Polling Trump is now leading all Republican candidates in North Carolina. A CNN/ORC poll has Trump second among all Republican candidates nationally, and a Quinnipiac University poll has Trump placing second in the key state of Iowa. Suddenly analysts are beginning to consider the possibility that Trump really could win the Republican Party nomination for president. If so, as the above Electoral College map shows, Democrats may be elated. According to the most recent polling available, Trump would lose against Clinton 119-419 in a theoretical Electoral College matchup. Follow me on Facebook and Twitter for more Electoral College and polling updates throughout the 2016 presidential election.

So how is this projections made?

First, the projection takes into account how Democrats and Republicans performed in the last three presidential elections. While past results do not always indicate future performance, the recent presidential elections give us a fairly good idea of how the demographics of each state favor or disfavor each party. More emphasis is put on the last presidential election in 2012 since that date is obviously more recent and, therefore, more likely to be accurate.

Second, trends for each state are considered. Trends are determined by looking at the last three presidential elections and also the changing demographics of each state.

Finally, the projection also accounts for any polling done within that state and the national polls done thus far. Unfortunately there are no polls available showing how Clinton would perform against Trump in individual states. What is available is national polls which show Clinton performing very strong against Trump. See below:

Clinton 59% v. Trump 35% (CNN Opinion Research 6/28)
Clinton 51% v. Trump 34% (Fox News 6/23)
Clinton 50% v. Trump 32% (Quinnipiac 5/26)

The Real Clear Politics of average of the three polls gives Clinton a 19.6 point lead over Trump. In comparison, Real Clear Politics average gives Clinton only a 3.8 point lead over Senator Rand Paul.

In 2012 President Obama won the Electoral College 332-206 despite only beating Mitt Romney by 3 points nationally. The last time a candidate won by double digits nationally was Ronald Reagan in 1984, who won by 18 points against Walter Mondale. In that election Reagan won the Electoral College 525-13.

Using the national polls and past results here is what a Trump versus Clinton Electoral College map would look like. This projection is actually generous to Trump, assuming he would only lose to Clinton by 14 points nationally, and that he would not suffer from the "bandwagon effect" in which voters flood to the candidate they perceive as the "winning candidate" if polls are lopsided leading up to an election.

Safe States for Clinton

State, Electoral Votes, 04 Result, 08 Result, 12 Result

California (55) –(D) 54%-44%, (D) 61%-37%, 37%, (D) 60%-37%

Colorado (9) - (R) 52%-47%, (D) 54%-45%, (D) 51%-46%

Connecticut (7) – (D) 54%-44%, (D) 61%-38%, (D) 58%-41%

Delaware (3) – (D) 53%-46%, (D) 62%-37%, (D) 59%-40%

Florida (29) - (R) 52%-49%, (D) 51%-48%, (D) 50%-49%

Hawaii (4) – (D) 54%-45%, (D) 72%-27%, (D) 71%-28%

Illinois (20) – (D) 55%-45%, (D) 62%-37%, (D) 58%-41%

Iowa (6) - (R) 50%-49%, (D) 54%-44%, (D) 52%-46%

Maine (4) – (D) 54%-45%, (D) 58%-40%, (D) 56%-41%

Maryland (10) – (D) 56%-43%, (D) 62%-37%, (D) 62%-37%

Massachusetts (11) – (D) 62%-37%, (D) 62%-36%, (D) 61%-38%

Michigan (16) – (D) 51%-48%, (D) 57%-41%, (D) 54%-45%

Minnesota (10) – (D) 51%-48%, (D) 54%-44%, (D) 53%-45%

Nevada (6) – (R) 51%-48%, (D) 55%-43%, (D) 52%-46%

New Hampshire (4) - (D) 50%-49%, (D) 54%-45%, (D) 52%-46%

New Mexico (5) – (R) 50%-49%, (D) 57%-42%, (D) 53%-43%

New Jersey (14) – (D) 53%-46%, (D) 57%-42%, (D) 58%-41%

New York (29) – (D) 58%-40%, (D) 63%-36%, (D) 63%-35%

North Carolina (15) - (R) 56%-44%, (D) 50%-49%, (R) 50%-48%

Ohio (18) - (R) 51%-49%, (D) 52%-47%, (D) 51%-48%

Oregon (7) – (D) 52%-47%, (D) 57%-40%, (D) 54%-42%

Pennsylvania (20) - (D) 51%-49%, (D) 55%-44%, (D) 52%-47%

Rhode Island (4) – (D) 59%-39%, (D) 63%-35%, (D) 63%-35%

Vermont (3) – (D) 59%-39%, (D) 68%-30%, (D) 67%-31%

Virginia (13) – (R) 54%-46, (D) 53%-46%, (D) 51%-47%

Washington (12) – (D) 53%-46%, (D) 58%-41%, (D) 57%-41%

Wisconsin (10) - (D) 50%-49%, (D) 56%-42%, (D) 53%-46%

Total Electoral Votes: 353

Analysis: As shown here a Trump versus Clinton matchup would really be over before it even began. By simply holding on to the states that Obama won in 2008 Clinton would already have over 270 votes, but given the strength of her polling against Trump she adds on to Obama's safe state territory with North Carolina.

Safe Trump States

State, Electoral Votes, 04 Result, 08 Result, 12 Result, Most Recent Poll

Alabama (9) – (R) 63%-37%, (R) 60%-39%, (R) 61%-38%

Arkansas (6) - (R) 54%-45%, (R) 59%-39%, (R) 61%-37%

Idaho (4) - (R) 69%-30%, (R) 62%-36%, (R) 65%-33%

Kansas (6) - (R) 62%-37%, (R) 57%-42%, (R) 60%-38%

Kentucky (8) - (R) 60%-40%, (R) 57%-41%, (R) 60%-38%

Nebraska (5) - (R) 66%-33%, (R) 56%-42%, (R) 60%-38%

North Dakota (3) - (R) 63%-36%, (R) 53%-45%, (R) 58%-39%

Oklahoma (7) - (R) 66%-34%, (R) 66%-34%, (R) 67%-33%

South Dakota (3) - (R) 60%-38%, (R) 53%-45%, (R) 58%-40%

Tennessee (11) - (R) 57%-43%, (R) 57%-42%, (R) 59%-39%

Utah (6) - (R) 73%-26%, (R) 63%-34%, (R) 73%-25%

West Virginia (5) - (R) 56%-43%, (R) 56%-43%, (R) 62%-36%

Wyoming (3) - (R) 69%-29%, (R) 65%-33%, (R) 69%-28%

Total Electoral Votes: 73

Analysis: Given a 14 point loss nationally to Clinton, Trump would only be assured of states that Mitt Romney by a very large margin in 2012. These states cover a vast amount of territory, but tend to have very few voters and therefore very few Electoral College votes.

Swing States

State, Electoral Votes, 04 Result, 08 Result, 12 Result

Alaska (3) – (R) 61%-36%, (R) 59%-38%, (R) 55%-41%, Projected Clinton Win

Arizona (11) - (R) 55%-44%, (R) 54%-45%, (R) 54%-45%, Projected Clinton Win

Georgia (16) - (R) 58%-41%, (R) 52%-47%, (R) 53%-45%, Projected Clinton Win

Indiana (11) - (R) 60%-39%, (D) 50%-49%, (R) 54%-44%, Projected Clinton Win

Louisiana (8) - (R) 57%-42%, (R) 59%-40%, (R) 58%-41%, Projected Trump Win

Mississippi (6) - (R) 60%-40%, (R) 56%-43%, (R) 55%-44%, Projected Clinton Win

Missouri (10) - (R) 53%-46%, (R) 49%-49%, (R) 54%-44%, Projected Clinton Win

South Carolina (9) - (R) 58%-41%, (R) 54%-45%, (R) 55%-44%, Projected Clinton Win

Texas (38) - (R) 61%-38%, (R) 56%-44%, (R) 57%-41%, Projected Trump Win

Analysis: The strength of Clinton versus Trump really shows up in the "swing state" analysis. States that Republican can usually count on like Alaska, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina all the sudden become competitive if given Trump's large deficit nationally. Trump is projected to hold on to Texas and Louisiana by slim margin, but otherwise Clinton takes states that Romney won by less than 14 points in 2008, giving Clinton an even bigger lead. The final result after adding up all the Clinton wins is 419 electoral

Report this ad