Economists' Pick - Economic Forum | HKTDC

Economic Forum

1.

Headwind? Tailwind!Examining the Direct Impacts of the RMB’s Possible Inclusion into the SDR

25 May 2015

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) unofficially begins its quintuple review of the SDR basket in recent days, with official result to be expected in October, and implementation at the beginning of ...

2.

Analysis of the RMB’s Chance to be Included in the SDR

10 April 2015

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will unofficially begin its quintuple review of the SDR basket this May, with official result to be respected in October, and implementation at the beginning of 2...

3.

Effects of CNH Exchange Rate on Offshore RMB Interest Rate

26 March 2015

Since November 2014, the exchange rate of offshore RMB to USD (CNH exchange rate) has depreciated while choppy CNH HIBOR led to a significant increase in capital cost. This article will discuss whethe...

4.

Comparison of China and US’ Bank Reserves and Their Implications

28 Feb 2015

On February 4, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced across the board and targeted cuts to reserve requirement ratios (RRR), with RRR for large banks being cut to 19.7%, and RRR for medium to sm...

5.

The Wealth Transfer from the Oil Price Plunge and Its Impacts

15 Jan 2015

Within six months in 2014, oil price plunged by more than half, triggering the Rubble crisis in Russia, who relies heavily on crude oil and natural gas exports. As wary as market participant may be, t...

6.

Hong Kong’s Economic Outlook for 2015

15 Dec 2014

In the first three quarters of the year, Hong Kong’s economy grew 2.4%, underperforming the 2.9% rate of expansion in the same period last year and lagging far behind Singapore and South Korea, where ...

7.

Causes of Sluggishness in Hong Kong’s Private Consumption Expenditure

7 Nov 2014

This year, Hong Kong’s economic growth continues to decelerate, with real GDP growth in the first two quarters coming in at 2.6% and 1.8% respectively, slower than last year’s full year growth of 2.9%...

8.

How to interpret the decline in China’s electricity consumption

2 Oct 2014

In 2010, The Economist created a Keqiang Index to track China’s economy, named after then Deputy Premier of China, Li Keqiang. It was consisted of three indicators, namely electricity consumption, rai...

9.

Development of Hong Kong’s Offshore RMB Market and Its Prospects

18 Aug 2014

Looking back at the progress over the last ten years, evidently, Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market featured being both policy-driven and market-oriented. Since the People’s Bank of China gave the green ...

10.

Hong Kong's Economic Growth Likely to Accelerate in the Second Half

30 June 2014

First is economic growth slowdown. 1Q2014 GDP merely grew by 2.5% YoY annualized, which is lower than that of annual and fourth quarter growth rate in 2013(Both2.9%YoY)...

11.

Assessing China and Hong Kong’s Exports Performances from the Standpoints of the US, EU and Japan

16 May 2014

According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) forecast, the world’s goods and services trade will grow by 4.7% in 2014 in volume, more than double the 2.1% growth in 2013, and the 2.1% growth in t...

12.

The Reasons Why the Singapore Economy Has Been Outperforming Hong Kong

17 April 2014

In 2013, the Hong Kong economy registered 2.9% real growth and 4.2% nominal growth. Its per capita GDP was USD38100. CCPI rose 4.3% on the year, and the unemployment rate averaged 3.3%. Meanwhile, the...

13.

Why Can Hong Kong’s Unemployment Rate Continue To Reach New Low?

1 April 2014

According to the latest statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Hong Kong from December 2013 to February 2014 dipped to 3.1%, a new low in this recovery cycle and the lowest in sixte...

14.

An Analysis on the Latest Developments and Comparative Advantages of Offshore RMB Centers

29 March 2014

Recently, London and the Chinese government have signed a Memorandum of Understanding on RMB clearing and settlement, and offshore RMB businesses in Europe are growing steadily. According to the lates...

15.

ECB kept policy rate on hold

7 March 2014

The ECB maintained its refinancing rate at 0.25% in March. Besides, there was no additional monetary policy introduced after the meeting, which was much in line with our expectation...

16.

Eurozone February flash CPI stabilized at 0.8% YoY

3 March 2014

Eurozone price level stood at 0.8% YoY for the third consecutive month in February 2014 according to flash estimate. The headline figure was dampened by a further decline in energy prices that registe...

17.

Japan January CPI declined 0.2% MoM

28 Feb 2014

Japan’s CPI in January 2014 posted a negative growth of -0.2% MoM for the first time over the past year, while the figure in the previous month was 0.0% MoM. Stripping out prices change in food and en...

18.

Eurozone PMI retreated to 52.7

21 Feb 2014

Eurozone flash composite PMI in February retreated to 52.7 from 52.9, the final reading of January 2014. The decline was caused by manufacturing PMI, which edged down by 1 ppt to 54.0. Service PMI adv...

19.

Japan 4Q13 GDP increased 0.3%

18 Feb 2014

Japan 4Q13 GDP growth registered at 0.3% QoQ, which was the same as that in 3Q13. The reading somewhat disappointed market as 4Q13 GDP was expected to reach 0.7% QoQ. For the whole year of 2013, the f...

20.

Eurozone 4Q13 GDP grew 0.3%

17 Feb 2014

Eurozone 4Q13 GDP first estimate registered at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in 3Q13. Among all member countries, GDP growth of Germany speeded up to 0.4% from 0.3%. France and Italy in 4Q13 both posted a gr...

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