Stafford by-election to test Qld govt
Queensland's Liberal National Party faces a second test of its electoral standing when the Stafford by-election is held on Saturday, just eight months from a general election.
The party is widely expected to lose the inner-northern Brisbane seat and Labor harbours suspicions it leaked a dirt file against its doctor candidate Anthony Lynham in a desperate bid to hold on.
The LNP suffered a staggering 17 per cent swing against it in the Redcliffe by-election in February after its MP was exposed for dodgy business dealings.
Saturday's poll will be a better indication of how the party will fare across the board in the general election in March 2015.
Labor held the seat for the four elections before the 2012 whitewash.
Griffith University political analyst Paul Williams expects a 10-12 per cent swing towards Labor on Saturday.
That's twice as bad as a normal by-election results, he says, and well above the 7.1 per cent Labor needs to win.
While Dr Williams was cautious to superimpose the result on the 2015 election, he predicts a similar swing across Greater Brisbane.
He says Mr Newman's sliding personal approval rating would be in part to blame if there is a worse-than-usual result.
"You'd have to say Newman's relative unpopularity, compared to other leaders in this state over the last few decades, has to play a force," he said.
"The LNP is also battling the federal government perception; it is hardly helping the matter."
The circumstances surrounding the resignation of the LNP's former member will damage the party further.
Dr Chris Davis, the former head of the Australian Medical Association Queensland, resigned in May over the government's handling of doctor contracts and the watering down of political donation laws.
Both parties are running health professionals, and both claim to be the underdog.
The electorate has the highest concentration of health professionals in the state.
It is bordered by two hospitals, which Dr Lynham said had suffered 670 job losses under the Newman government.
"I want to join you in a fight that you all know too well: cuts to health, education and inaction against violence in our community," he said.
The maxillofacial surgeon, who has a multi-million dollar property portfolio, decided to run for Labor over what he saw was an inadequate response to late-night alcohol-fuelled violence.
The LNP has depicted Dr Lynham as a part-time blow-in who will be preoccupied with his lucrative surgery.
Labor is reeling after a damaging file on Dr Lynham was released, which showed he owed money to Queensland Health as a result of overpayments made during the bungled rollout of a new health payroll system several years ago.
The LNP has denied leaking the document.
Mr Newman doorknocked with his party's candidate, psychologist Bob Andersen, last weekend to talk up the LNP's achievements, such as decreasing crime and reducing hospital waiting time.
Just two years ago, the Newman government secured an unprecedented majority that had pundits predicting it would hold on to power for up to five terms.
But there has been a dramatic U-turn in popularity after a suite of controversial reforms, and a recent poll suggested it trails Labor on a two-party preferred basis across Queensland.
LNP president Bruce McIver has all but conceded defeat in Stafford.
"Governments don't win by-elections. They are an opportunity for people to have a swipe," he said.
"If we can run a credible race there, I'll think we'll do very well. If we can win it, all the better."
The Saturday by-election will be the first time voters will have to show proof of identification, which is an Australian first.
Pre-polling booths opened last Monday and so far 100 per cent have shown ID, indicating the new law isn't a roadblock to democracy.
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