UK net migration rises 21%

A drop in the number of people going to live abroad undermines Theresa May's plan to bring net migration below 100,000
Theresa May
Net migration rose to 239,000 last year in a blow to the hopes of the home secretary, Theresa May. Photograph: Andrew Winning/Reuters

Net inward migration to Britain rose by 21% year on year in 2010 to 239,000, fuelled by a sharp fall in the number of people moving abroad and a resurgence in Polish migrants coming to work in the UK.

The Office for National Statistics said that the figure for long-term immigration in 2010 – those coming to live in Britain for more than 12 months – was 575,000.

The ONS statistics show that long-term emigration – those leaving to live abroad for more than 12 months – was at 336,000 in 2010, a fall of more than 91,000 compared to the peak level of emigration in 2009.

The 21% rise in the net inward migration figure – the gap between those arriving to live in the UK and those leaving – is a fresh blow to the Conservatives' pledge to reduce the figure to "tens of thousands" by the time of the next election.

The figures indicate that the imposition of a temporary cap on work visas in July 2010, shortly after the coalition came to power, and made permanent this April, has had little impact.

Later figures for the 12 months to the second quarter of this year, April to June, published at the same time, do not give an updated figure for net inward migration. But the Home Office says that they indicate that the number of work visas, 158,000, may be stabilising, having fallen since 2006; the number of overseas student visas, at 271,000, has fallen from a peak in June 2010.

The figures show that the largest single group of long-term migrants coming to Britain are overseas students, with 228,000 arriving in 2010, 78% of them from outside the European Union.

The number of people coming to Britain from outside Europe to a definite job has fallen to its lowest level since 2004, at 110,000 in 2010, but this has happened at the same time as a resurgence of migration from Poland and other east European countries. Net migration from the A8 countries, as they are known, has risen from 5,000 in 2009 to 39,000 in 2010.

A separate Department for Work and Pensions report on national insurance number registrations says that above the European average unemployment rates in Spain (20%), Lithuania (16%) and Latvia (16%) are fuelling increased immigration to Britain. The DWP says that national insurance registrations from Ireland rose by 56% in 2010/11 and notes that Ireland experienced one of the deepest recessions in the eurozone when its economy shrank by 10% in 2009.

Other key points from the latest immigration statistics include:

The number of people granted settlement in the UK reached a record level of 241,000 in 2010. The Home Office says this is mostly due to its clearance of the asylum backlog under which people who have been in Britain for years have finally been given a legal status. The latest figures for early 2011 show the numbers have fallen by 8% so far this year.

Asylum applications rose by 9% between April and June this year to 4,800 but are still at historically low levels and show no sign of rising as a result of the Arab spring.

More than 25,000 people were held in immigration detention during 2010, slightly down on the 28,000 the year before.

18 children were held in immigration detention between April and June this year, compared with 114 in the same period last year. The coalition has pledged to end the immigration detention of children. Figures for July show that nine children were detained, including five under the age of five; all were held in Tinsley House near Gatwick airport.

Immigration removals or voluntary departures stood at 11,388 between April and June 2011, the lowest level since data started to be published in 2001.

The immigration minister, Damian Green, claimed that the annual 2010 statistics covered the period before the government's "radical changes" had been introduced to drive net migration down below 100,000:

"After almost two years of increasing net migration, the figures stabilised in the last quarter," he said, taking some comfort from the fact that net inward migration fell by 3,000 from 243,000 in the 12 months to September 2010, compared with the 239,000 figure for the 12 months to December 2010.

"This explains why the government radically changed immigration policy, from our first months in office, to drive the numbers down with a limit on economic migration and changes to student visas to ensure we attract the brightest and best whilst tackling widespread abuse of the system. We are currently consulting on a range of further measures which will drive down numbers further."

But Matt Cavanagh, of the Institute for Public Policy Research, said that the figures were a reminder that politicians should not promise what they could not deliver and showed how stable immigration had been, both before and after the general election.

He said that the cap on migrants from outside the EU appeared to have had little effect in 2010: "Ministers need to be more honest with the public about how much government policy, rather than economic trends and employer preferences, really drives immigration," he said.

"Ministers also need to start thinking about how to harness immigration to promote growth. All the indicators show that the immigration cap isn't helping youth unemployment, which is back up above 20%, with those not in employment, education or training at a record high."

Labour's spokeswoman, Shabana Mahmood, said that the figures illustrated the gulf between the government's rhetoric on immigration and the reality reflected by the figures. "Since an immigration cap was introduced by the government, the number of work-related visas issued has gone up. Net migration, the government's measure for its pledge to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, now stands at 239,000," she said.

"The prime minister said 'no ifs, no buts' on immigration, but on the contrary 'ifs and buts' sum up the government's policies."