ARMS TRAFFICKING TO BOSNIA GOES ON DESPITE EMBARGO

ZAGREB, Croatia, Nov. 4— Even as the United Nations discusses lifting the arms embargo on Bosnia and Herzegovina, the embargo appears to have become largely a fiction, openly flouted.

Helped by the ready availability of arms and military components in the former Soviet bloc countries and by an apparent American readiness to turn a blind eye, Croatia is now building or assembling everything from battle tanks to MIG-21 fighter aircraft and acting as the main conduit for the flood of weapons reaching Bosnia.

"What I need, I get," the Croatian Defense Minister, Gojko Susak, said in an interview. "The arms market is saturated, so saturated you would pay three times the price if you got things legally."

Mr. Susak described buying arms in countries including Poland, Bulgaria and Russia as "an open market" and said Croatia was now providing the army of the Muslim-dominated Bosnian Government with antitank weapons and ammunition for mortars, cannons and machine guns.

The effect of this increase in the arms available to the Bosnian Muslim and allied Bosnian Croat forces has been evident in the last week in two successful offensives against the long-dominant Bosnian Serbs. The first offensive burst through Serbian lines east of Bihac in the northwest; the second resulted in the capture of the town of Kupres in the west central part of the country.

An arms embargo imposed on the former Yugoslavia in 1991 froze the Bosnian Serbs' weapons superiority in place because Serbs controlled the Yugoslav Army and dipped into its arsenal to supply the Bosnian Serbs.

The Serbs used this advantage to take 70 percent of Bosnian territory, routing the nascent Bosnian Army and terrorizing Muslim civilians.

Their superiority in artillery and tanks remains but now appears to have been offset by the success of the Bosnian Government in providing basic weapons to a large army operating in a mountainous terrain where mobility can outweigh armor.

"The Bosnian Army has doubled in size over the past year to about 164,000 men, all in uniform and equipped, against about 102,000 Serbs," said Paul Beaver, a military analyst at Jane's Defense Weekly in London. "They have obtained Russian-made rocket-propelled grenades from the former East Germany, Chinese antitank weapons from Pakistan and ammunition from Iran."

Since the American-brokered Muslim-Croat federation in Bosnia was formed in March, most of the weapons reaching Bosnia have come through Croatia, a country with more than 1,000 islands, several remote airstrips and a number of land routes into Bosnia.

The United States appears to have pursued a policy of turning a blind eye to this arms trade, which has had the effect of advancing one element of American strategy in the Balkans: achieving a balance of power in Bosnia to create conditions favorable to a peace settlement.

For example, Mr. Susak said the American military attache at the embassy in Zagreb, Col. Richard Herrick, had attended a recent demonstration of Croatian air power. Among the aircraft on show were 12 MIG fighter planes -- Croatia had no more than four when the embargo was imposed -- and several MI-24 armored assault helicopters that fired guided antitank missiles. Croatia had none of these helicopters or missiles when the embargo took effect in 1991.

Colonel Herrick declined comment. An official at the American Embassy in Zagreb, who confirmed Colonel Herrick's presence at the military exercise, said, "Yes, of course we're aware of circumvention of the embargo." She then corrected herself, saying the State Department had no verified reports of violations. Asked if the United States had done anything about possible violations, she declined comment.

Mr. Beaver of Jane's Defense Weekly described the American approach to Croatian arms imports as "not quite connivance, but almost."

Mr. Susak said Croatia was now assembling MIGs at a factory just outside Zagreb and already had about 20 aircraft. He added that tanks were being manufactured in Slavonski Brod, and mortars and rocket launchers at plants in other towns.

At the Duro Dakovic factory in Slavonski Brod, the success of Croatia in getting what it needs for its weapons industry is evident. The gleaming green hulls of five M-84 battle tanks stood recently, waiting for turrets and 125-millimeter cannons to be installed.

When Yugoslavia broke up in 1991, the tank plant was paralyzed because more than 70 percent of the components assembled there came from republics other than Croatia, the plant's managing director, Antun Milovic, said.

But by diversifying its own industry, and by buying essential military components in the former Soviet bloc, Croatia has now returned the tank plant to operation, and Duro Davkovic executives said prewar production levels of 100 to 150 tanks a year could soon be met.

Mr. Susak and Mr. Milovic said Croatia aimed to export tanks to Kuwait next year under a contract that had been interrupted when Yugoslavia collapsed.

Apart from East Europe, the other major source of arms in trafficking valued at about $500 million in the last two years appears to have been Muslim countries. Mr. Beaver and other analysts estimated that Iran alone had provided at least 1,500 tons of ammunition that reached Bosnia through Croatia.

Last week, Prime Minister Haris Silajdzic of Bosnia and Prime Minister Nikica Valentic of Croatia were in Teheran, where they agreed to set up a commission that would meet twice a year to strengthen economic and political ties among Iran, Croatia and Bosnia.

Although Croatia and Bosnia are clearly cooperating -- in the import of arms and on the ground in the capture of Kupres -- there are limits to their partnership. Mr. Susak said Croatia was not providing tanks or artillery to Bosnia, a decision that is perhaps not surprising, since Bosnian Muslims and Croats were at war with each other last year.

Thus a lifting of the arms embargo remains important to the Bosnian Government, because it would mean emancipation from dependence on Croatia and because it would provide access to the tanks and artillery the Bosnian Army still needs.

On Thursday the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for a lifting of the embargo on Bosnia. Though the General Assembly has no enforcement power, the United States has drafted a resolution for the United Nations Security Council calling for an automatic lifting of the arms ban on Bosnia in six months.

The Bosnian Serbs still have an estimated 600 pieces of heavy artillery against about 100 for the Muslims, and a marked superiority in tanks. A counterattack against recent Bosnian gains is possible.

"We cannot accept the status quo," Mr. Silajdzic said in a recent interview. "That is why we want the lifting of the embargo: to gain strength and negotiate from a balance of power."

Photo: Bosnian Croat forces fired rockets from a mobile launcher near Kupres yesterday. Croatia's Defense Minister says the arms market in the Balkans is so saturated with weapons from former Warsaw Pact countries that the Bosnian and Croat allies can easily buy what they need to fight the Serbs. (Associated Press)(pg. 5) Map of Croatia showing location of Zagreb. (pg. 5)