'It's too big to fail': Powerful El Niño expected to bring record wet winter to the West Coast

• There's an over 60% possibility that Southern California will have a wet winter, and an over 40% possibility that San Francisco will have one
• Winds changing direction along the equator and rising sea-level ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are causing El Niño to be more powerful
• El Niño is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that occurs every few years 

By Reuters and Zoe Szathmary For Dailymail.com

Published: 23:11 EST, 10 October 2015 | Updated: 16:07 EST, 11 October 2015

Californians may need to stock up on umbrellas this winter, due to this year's El Niño.

Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told the Los Angeles Times: 'There's no longer a possibility that El Niño wimps out at this point.

'It's too big to fail.'

The newspaper wrote that 'rising sea-level ocean temperatures in the Pacific' along with 'a change of directions of the wind along the equator' are causing El Niño to be more powerful. 

Scroll down for video  

The sea surface temperature departure is seen in an undated NOAA image released October 9, 2015

Winter storms typically dropping rainfall in Central America might instead change course and affect California and the southern US because of this, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The newspaper reported there's an over 60% possibility that Southern California will have a wet winter, and an over 40% possibility that San Francisco will have a wet winter.

The Climate Prediction Center's deputy director Mike Halpert told the newspaper that 'this could be one of the types of winters like in 1997-98.'

KFOR wrote that 'the winter of 1997 was the second warmest and seventh wettest on record.'

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday maintained its outlook for strong El Niño conditions as likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere into 2016, potentially roiling global crops and commodities prices.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) again pegged the likelihood of El Niño conditions persisting through the winter at about 95 percent, peaking in late fall/early winter.

It said its El Niño conditions would likely start gradually weakening next spring.

El Niño is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that occurs every few years, triggering heavy rains and floods in South America and scorching weather in Asia and as far away as east Africa.

CPC's forecast was little-changed from its September outlook and in line with a growing consensus for a strong Niño that will weaken in 2016.

Across the United States, 'below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation' due to the conditions are likely to be seen during the upcoming months, CPC said in its report.

Residents of much of the U.S. Northeast, dreading a repeat of last year's historically snowy and cold winter, will get a break this time around, at least initially, meteorologists at AccuWeather.com said on Wednesday.

An October 1 image from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory is seen here 

El Niño is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that occurs every few years, triggering heavy rains and floods in South America and scorching weather in Asia and as far away as east Africa

Frigid temperatures that made February 2015 the second-coldest February on record for the region will be replaced this winter by milder weather largely due to one of the strongest El Niño weather pattern phenomena in the last 50 years, the weather watchers said.

The same El Niño weather phenomenon that will keep the U.S. Northeast defrosted will also drive heavy rain and mountain snow to California, helping to replenish reservoirs left dry by drought, the forecasters said.

'After the winter of 2014-2015 brought brutal cold to the northeastern United States, this season is set to be milder overall, but particularly during the early part of the season,' AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

'The Northeast and mid-Atlantic can expect fewer days of subzero temperatures than last year,' he said.

However, milder weather in the Northeast could change in February and March, and upstate New York and northern New England may not see any of the warmer temperatures at all, Accuweather.com said.

Farther west, the Great Lakes region can expect snowfall and precipitation totals to fall below normal due to a lack of Arctic air.

Will it happen? Accuweather predicted flood risks in California and parts of the South this winter 

The El Niño pattern, a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, also raises the risk this winter in Florida for tornadoes and in southern Georgia and South Carolina for severe weather events.

In the northern Plains, wintry weather will start early, back off in the middle of the season and return again before spring, forecasters said.

While the Northwest and Rocky Mountains are likely to end up with snowfall totals much below normal, the Southwest will see frequent wet and snowy conditions.

Drenching rains in California may lift drought conditions but will also raise the possibility of mudslides, Pastelok said. 

The 2015-2016 season may yield triple the amount of snow that fell last year in California's central and northern mountains, although even that amount may not be enough to end the state's water crisis.  

Comments (149)

Share what you think

• Newest
• Oldest
• Best rated
• Worst rated

 View all

The comments below have not been moderated.

 View all

The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline.

We are no longer accepting comments on this article.

Who is this week's top commenter? Find out now