Rising sea levels put over 400 US cities 'past the point of no return' study claims

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Half the land mass of 414 towns and cities will eventually be underwater, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found in a study
New Orleans stands to be the worst-affected, with '98 percent of populated land in New Orleans to be below the future sea level'
Miami will also be hard-hit due its flatness and limestone foundation
After Florida, the next three most affected states are California, Louisiana and New York
Extreme carbon cuts and switching to renewable energy could save millions of people, researchers said

By Afp Reporter and Dailymail.com Reporter

Published: 09:10 EST, 14 October 2015 | Updated: 12:39 EST, 14 October 2015

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Say goodbye to Miami and New Orleans.

No matter what we do to curb global warming, these and other beloved US cities will sink below rising seas, according to a study released Monday.

But making extreme carbon cuts and moving to renewable energy could save millions of people living in iconic coastal areas of the United States, said the findings in the October 12 edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed US journal.

Scientists have already established that if we do nothing to reduce our burning of fossil fuel up to the year 2100, the planet will face sea level rise of 14-32 feet (4.3–9.9 meters), said lead author Ben Strauss, vice president for sea level and climate impacts at Climate Central.

The big uncertainty is the issue of when.

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Sea Level will swamp New Orleans and Miami: A study released Monday says that 414 US towns and cities are now guaranteed to be inundated with water due to rising sea levels, it is just a matter of when, with New Orleans and Miami looking to the be the worst-affected

New research: The study found that making extreme carbon cuts and moving to renewable energy could save millions of people living in iconic coastal areas of the United States

Projections: These graphs estimate how much sea levels will rise over the next 80 years from 2020 (left) in accordance with the amount of cities that will be affected by it (right)

'Some of this could happen as early as next century,' Strauss told AFP.

'But it might also take many centuries,' he added.

'Just think of a pile of ice in a warm room. You know it is going to melt, but it is harder to say how quickly.'

To bring this issue home for people in the United States, the study pinpoints at-risk land where more than 20 million people reside.

Shockingly, the research found that 414 US cities already have 'lock-in' dates.

That's 'the date where we let the genie out of the bottle, when it's past the point of no return', Strauss told The Huffington Post.

And the worst-affected looks to be New Orleans.

'Even in a best-case carbon emissions scenario, 98 percent of populated land in New Orleans would be below the future sea level,' Strauss said.

'So it's really just a question of building suitable defenses or eventually abandoning the city.'

The authors projected business-as-usual carbon emissions, in addition to the complication of the melting West Antarctic ice sheet, a process some experts fear is irreversible.

They also considered what might happen if the world were to make a big turnaround, reaching peak carbon emissions by 2020.

This radical scenario would have to occur far earlier than the current aim of some world powers to peak by 2050, said Strauss.

An online tool at allows users to see the impacts on various US cities.

A global version is expected in the next month, Strauss said.

'New Orleans is a really sad story': The authors of the study say NOLA is set to be swamped and is 'a lot worse than Miami', due to its flatness and the fact it is already sinking

The tool shows which US cities may face 'lock-in dates beyond which the cumulative effects of carbon emissions likely commit them to long-term sea-level rise that could submerge land under more than half of the city's population,' said the study.

'Norfolk, Virginia, for example, faces a lock-in date of 2045 under a scenario of unabated carbon emissions.'

For cities like Miami and New Orleans, the limits are already exceeded.

'In our analysis, a lot of cities have futures that depend on our carbon choices but some appear to be already lost,' Strauss said.

'And it is hard to imagine how we could defend Miami in the long run.'

Miami's low elevation and porous limestone foundation mean that sea walls and levees will not help, he said.

Strauss described the foundations as like 'swiss cheese', saying water will run straight through it.

The state of Florida has the most number of big cities at risk from sea level rise, holding 40 percent or more of the US population living on potentially affected land.

After Florida, the next three most affected states are California, Louisiana and New York.

One beloved landmark of American food culture and jazz music, New Orleans, is already sinking.

'New Orleans is a really sad story,' Strauss said.

'It is a lot worse looking than Miami.'

Bad news: Just like New Orleans, Miami will also be hard hit because of its flatness, but also because the land itself is mostly limestone, which will easily absorb water, researchers said

New York is also in peril, and under a worst-case scenario, the city could be un-livable by the year 2085, according to the study.

But strong action -- the kind that would reduce carbon emissions in the year 2050 to levels that more closely resemble those seen in 1950 -- could make a difference.

A total of 14 cities with more than 100,000 residents could avoid locking in this century, including Jacksonville, Florida; Chesapeake, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach in Virginia; and Sacramento and Stockton in California.

'We were really trying to show what the consequences of our carbon choices are going to be,' said Strauss, whose study was edited by renowned NASA climate scientist and author James Hansen.

According to earth scientist Michael Mann, a well-known author on climate change, the latest findings are a 'useful contribution to the literature.'

The study provides a 'better quantification of the detrimental impacts of the magnitude of sea level rise we may commit to in the decades ahead if we continue with business-as-usual policies of fossil fuel burning,' said Mann, who was not involved in the research.