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'Godzilla' El Niño is getting BIGGER: Weather system could be the most powerful of its kind on record, warn scientists

Region in Central Pacific saw weekly average temperature of 3ºC (5ºF)
That's higher than the 2.8ºC anomaly recorded in huge 1997 El Niño
As a result India, Indonesia and Australia will be much drier than usual
Heavy rainfall is expected across Pacific and South American nations

By Ellie Zolfagharifard For Dailymail.com

Published: 13:26 EST, 19 November 2015 | Updated: 03:00 EST, 20 November 2015

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Earlier this week, scientists said this year's 'El Niño' would be the worst in more than 15 years.

Now researchers have upgraded that forecast to the weather system being the worst of its kind on record.

Based on weekly data, the current El Niño is now stronger than the huge events in 1982–83 and 1997–98, and likely 1877–78.

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Meteorologists measured record-high sea surface temperatures across large parts of the central Pacific. The region is known as the Niño 3.4 and stretches between 90 degrees west and saw a weekly average temperature of 3ºC (5ºF) above normal — higher than the 2.8ºC anomaly recorded in 1997

WHAT IS EL NIÑO?

El Niño is caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator.

Usually the wind blows strongly from east to west, due to the rotation of the Earth, causing water to pile up in the western part of the Pacific.

This pulls up colder water from the deep ocean in the eastern Pacific.

However, in an El Niño, the winds pushing the water get weaker and cause the warmer water to shift back towards the east. This causes the eastern Pacific to get warmer.

But as the ocean temperature is linked to the wind currents, this causes the winds to grow weaker still and so the ocean grows warmer, meaning the El Niño grows.

This change in air and ocean currents around the equator can have a major impact on the weather patterns around the globe by creating pressure anomalies in the atmosphere

One of the biggest indications that this year's El Niño will be huge appeared over the past week, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Meteorologists measured record-high sea surface temperatures across large parts of the central Pacific.

The region is known as the Niño 3.4 and stretches between 90 degrees west and saw a weekly average temperature of 3ºC (5ºF) above normal — higher than the 2.8ºC anomaly recorded in 1997.

It follows a report by Nasa on Monday which found October to be the hottest such month since 1880. Scientists say El Niño is largely to blame.

Global average surface temperatures last month were 1.04°C above the long-term average - the greatest increase of any month ever recorded.

October 2015 also marks the first time a monthly temperature anomaly exceeded 1°C in records dating back to 1880.

As well as increasing temperatures, a UN weather agency this week warned that El Niño is already causing severe droughts and flooding across the world.

'Severe droughts and devastating flooding being experienced throughout the tropics and sub-tropical zones bear the hallmarks of this El Niño, which is the strongest in more than 15 years,' WMO chief Michel Jarraud said.

El Niño is triggered by a warming in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

It can cause unusually heavy rains in some parts of the world and drought elsewhere.

The UN agency said this year's event was expected to push water surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific Ocean more than 2°C above normal.

The El Niño weather pattern, a phenomenon associated with extreme droughts, storms and floods, is expected to strengthen before the end of the year and become one of the strongest on record. El Niño was already 'strong and mature' and the biggest in more than 15 years. Pictured are warming patterns for last month

Shown here is the monthly the global average surface temperature in October 2015 from between 1981 to 2015. Overall, global average surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.64°C per century

This makes it one of the four strongest El Niños since 1950.

Previous particularly strong El Niños occurred in 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98.

Typically, El Niño events reach their maximum strength between October and January, but often continue to wreak havoc through the first quarter of the year.

The phenomenon usually leaves countries like India, Indonesia and Australia drier, increasing chances of wildfires and lower crop production.

In recent months, extreme dry conditions caused by the El Niño have sparked some of the worst forest fires in Indonesia's history.

The phenomenon also often leads to heavier rainfall in the eastern Pacific and South American nations, raising the spectre of floods and landslides.

El Niño is caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator. Usually the wind blows strongly from east to west, due to the rotation of the Earth, causing water to pile up in the western part of the Pacific

WMO linked this year's El Niño to the 'very active tropical cyclone season' in the Pacific, including the record-breaking Hurricane Patricia that hit Mexico last month.

The UN meanwhile warned last week that El Niño could significantly increase the number of people going hungry.

It said countries like Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Djibouti are expected to see drier conditions, and others, including Kenya, Somalia and Uganda are at risk of floods.

While El Niño will certainly have severe impacts in many parts, Jarraud said the world was far better prepared for the event than in the past.

'The level of international, national and local mobilisation is truly unprecedented,' he said.

HOW SIMILAR IS THIS YEAR'S EL NINO TO THE HUGE EVENT OF 1997?

If you live anywhere El Niño has important impacts, you've heard forecasters say this year's event looks just like the monster El Niño of 1997-98.

But when it comes to El Niños there are no identical twins. This year's event hasn't always resembled the '97 one. Satellite observations from early '97 and early '15 show conditions in the Pacific Ocean that were, well, oceans apart.

In its 'normal' state, the Pacific is warm on the western side and cooler in the east. That's what the ocean looked like in 1996 and early 1997.

But over the past 18 months or so, satellite images have shown a large pool of warm water hovering around the equator in the central Pacific - neither west, as in a normal year, nor east, as in a typical El Niño.

'That warm patch started last year and it never disappeared. It's very peculiar behavior,' said Tong Lee, an oceanographer at Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California.

This graphic shows side by side comparisons of Pacific Ocean sea surface height (SSH) anomalies of what is presently happening in 2015 with the Pacific Ocean signal during the famous 1997 El Niño

In the first decade of the 2000s, scientists began noticing that warm pools were appearing more frequently in the central equatorial Pacific.

Since they look like El Niños but are in the wrong place, some began calling them 'central Pacific El Niños.' Others use the name 'El Niño Modoki,' Japanese for 'almost but not quite an El Niño.'

As a result, Lee thinks the coming winter could be a double whammy.

'Because the warming in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean has been lingering from 2014 to 2015, and now strong warming is developing in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the question is whether in 2015 we're going to see a combined impact.'

Nasa's Michelle Gierach, who studies the ocean response to El Niño, has a wait-and-see attitude. 'All bets are off,' she said. 'Ocean conditions before the 2015 El Niño make it unclear as to what impacts we can expect. I feel like this one is an entirely different entity.'

Pictured is a comparison of sea surface height in the Pacific as measured at the end of July in 1997 and 2015. Comparing the two years, 1997 seems slightly less intense. But trade winds collapsed and the eastern Pacific warmed dramatically from August through November 1997, setting the stage for a turbulent winter

Secretary-General of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Michel Jarraud addresses a news conference on latest El Nino. While El Niño will certainly have severe impacts in many parts, Jarraud said the world was far better prepared for the event than in the past

He pointed out that a wide range of disaster management campaigns were expected to 'save lives and minimise economic damage and disruption.'

But while scientific understanding of the phenomenon has increased, Jarraud warned that due to climate change it could be 'playing out in uncharted territory.'

Although scientists say climate patterns like El Niño are not caused by climate change, rising ocean temperatures caused by global warming is believed to impact their intensity and frequency.

'This naturally occurring El Niño event and human induced climate change may interact and modify each other in ways we have never before experienced,' Jarraud said.

'Even before the onset of El Niño, global average surface temperatures had reached new records. El Niño is turning up the heat even further,' he added.

HOW EL NIÑO WREAKS HAVOC THROUGHOUT THE WORLD

El Niño can cause unusually heavy rains in some parts of the world and drought elsewhere. For instance, In recent months, extreme dry conditions caused by the El Niño have sparked some of the worst forest fires in Indonesia's history

South East Asia: El Niño is typically associated with drought in South East Asia.

The weather pattern has helped fuel wildfires in Indonesia, among the worst on record, which has caused dense haze to cover many parts of Indonesia and other neighbouring countries, with significant repercussions for health.

Pacific Islands: Historically, El Niño has caused reduced rainfall in the southwest Pacific, from southern Papua New Guinea southeast to the southern Cook Islands.

It has also enhanced rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific.

South Asia: Southwest monsoon. The India Meteorological Department reported that the June-September rainfall over India as a whole was 86 per cent of its long period average.

El Niño is believed to have played a key role in the rainfall deficit.

Eastern Africa: The October to December rainfall season is expected to be highly influenced by El Niño.

Southern Africa; A number of countries in southern Africa are reporting below average rainfall leading to drought conditions and fears of food insecurity.

South America: El Niño has a major impact on a number of countries in South America. For instance, in the 1997-98 El Niño, central Ecuador and Peru suffered rainfall more than 10 times normal .

In Peru about 10 per cent of the health facilities were damaged. National meteorological services throughout the region have been very active in advising governments on preparedness measures to try to limit damages from this year's El Niño.