Federer has Good Chance to be Number One after Wimbledon

Posted on February 26, 2011February 26, 2011 by Ru-an | 36 Comments

I wanted to post something more positive after having to post after Roger’s loss to Djokovic at Dubai. It was a very bad loss, but it’s not all doom and gloom. In terms of rankings Roger actually gained 300 points on Djokovic. I’m not sure when these points will be added yet but nevertheless it will be added. Lets not forget how badly Roger lost to Murray in Shanghai last year either just to come back and win three out of four tournaments, including the Masters Cup where he had no problems disposing of the world’s top four. In hindsight, losses like today is part of Roger’s tennis these days. He is not going to be as dominant as he once was. We have to look at the positives these days, and one such positive is that Roger can still be ranked number one after Wimbledon this year and break Sampras’ consecutive weeks at number one record.

Things are rarely as doom and gloom as it seems right after a tough loss. The amount of points Roger, Nadal, and Djokovic has to defend until after Wimbledon from here on is as follows:

Roger – 1615

Djokovic – 1720

Nadal – 7720

Roger’s points from last year comes from the following events:

Indian Wells- 45
Miami- 90
Rome- 10
Madrid- 600
RG- 360
Halle- 150
Wimbledon- 360

Nadal has a point cushion of about 4400 at the top, but it will be hard for him to defend all his points. I heard he is playing Barcelona which will make him physically tired and possibly make him burn out again. I just don’t know how he can win Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid, and the French Open again, while playing Barcelona as well. Then there is also the points from Miami, Indian Wells, and Wimbledon of course. For some reason I just feel like Nadal is gonna slip up somewhere. Djokovic has as good a chance as anyone to get to number one if he keeps up his recent good form, but perhaps he isn’t as good on grass and clay as he is on hard. But surely Roger will gain a lot of points from now until Wimbledon, starting at Indian Wells and Miami where he can gain a lot of points. Roger has been very consistent against players other than his top rivals of late so you would think that he can make semi-final levels at these events at least.

If Roger gets the number one ranking back it will be a big boost to his confidence and yet another important record could be crushed under his weight. Lets not make too much of this loss today. For all we know Roger will have a good summer and do well in the French Open and Wimbledon especially where he will be a big favorite. A seventh Wimbledon crown would be the ultimate…

Dubai F: Djokovic schools Federer 6-3, 6-3

Posted on February 26, 2011February 26, 2011 by Ru-an | 18 Comments

If there is evidence that Roger is on the decline then this match would be it. I can’t remember the last time I saw Roger play this bad. Just a stream of errors from beginning till end. It is kinda annoying when I make an optimistic post about Roger winning more majors and then he puts in a performance like this. I knew if Federror showed up this match could be over quick, and that is what happened. Roger just never gave himself a chance, especially with how error prone his backhand was. Not to mention how many times he completely shanked the ball from that side. I mean this was even worse than the Oz Open. It was pretty much a repeat from the Oz Open semi’s, but this time Roger was playing a few levels worse. Roger lost serve early in the first set and never recovered. Djokovic was on fire.

In the second set it looked like Djokovic’s level dropped a notch and Roger got a break to lead 3-1. But he played a loose service game to lose serve. Djokovic quickly took over control again and it was soon all over for Roger. The problem for Roger is that Djokovic has a very good defense. He can’t be forced into unforced errors that easily. To win a point from the base line is difficult for Roger. He has to construct the point very well or hit a winner early in the point. But it is risky and Roger made too many errors to construct the point properly. Whenever the point went past a certain amount of shots, Djokovic inevitable won the point. The fact that Djokovic only missed three first serves in the first set didn’t help, and other than that he was just too solid from the base line. It’s not fun to watch Roger when he is playing like this.

You feel like he is so fragile from the base line that he can make an error at any point. He wasn’t tested before the final either. It was all easy matches. When he runs into a top player his lack of confidence is immediately exposed. It looks like that Oz Open loss had a bad influence on his psyche, judging by this match. I’m afraid he is having a lot of problems on slower courts now, which is most of the courts these days. And it is clear that Roger’s prime level was way better than this. In his prime he would have at least matched Djokovic shot for shot when he is in form like this. It is obvious that Roger and Annacone didn’t figure out a way to dismantle Djokovic, although Annacone was not there this week. It is now onto the hard courts in North America and I’m not too optimistic. Seeing Roger trashed like this isn’t exactly a confidence booster for his chances against top players.

It also makes me wonder about his future chances in slams. Just in my last post I said I think he can win more slams, but seeing a performance this bad makes me wonder. How does he believe he is still the best with performances like these?! The commentators even said that Roger is now slipping into a second tier behind Nadal and Djokovic. Too depressing to think about…

Sampras Says Federer Will Win More Major Titles

Posted on February 25, 2011February 25, 2011 by Ru-an | 16 Comments

Do you expect that Federer will manage it to get back to #1 and break your record of being at the top of the rankings for 286 weeks? Only 2 weeks are missing for him.

I don’t think he plays in order to break this record. He tries to raise the numbers of his major titles, that was also the case with me and it can only be your aim when you have reached this kind of level. When he manages to do so he can get back to #1 again.

Do you think he is capable of it?

He still has a lot inside him and is going to win more Grand Slam titles. The French Open will be difficult but I still see him as the clear favourite in Wimbledon and the US Open.

After every of his losses it is said that his era has come to an end.

There will always be people who overreact. I get often asked by other members at my golfclub: „Do you think that Roger is done?“ I had to listen myself for 2 years that I was worn out and should retire. But the people don’t know what is going on in the head and heart of a big player. I know that Federer deep inside him believes that he is the best player in the world and is going to win more majors. I can tell you this because I know how successful athletes think. People can’t understand such a mentality. But it is invaluable and Roger has it.

http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=177868&page=3

Above you can find the full translation of an excellent interview with Pete Sampras which someone posted at MTF. I just quoted the parts where he says Roger will win more major titles, but go ahead and read it all. It is a very insightful and reassuring article from someone who knows better than anyone what Roger’s is going through at the moment. Sampras was however in another boat as Roger towards the end of his career. It is refreshing to see that Sampras feels Roger is still much more motivated than he was at similar stages in their careers and that Roger is dealing better with the tour and all the pressures that goes with it. This all just punctuates what an impressive person Roger is. He really enjoys the whole process and takes everything in his stride. He just seems to travel really well and never get tired of it either.

It’s nice to hear Sampras’ perspective on Roger’s recent ‘problems’ as well. I have said before that Roger has created a monster by how consistent he has been over the years. Sampras says that losses is part of the game and that on a given day a player can play amazing while Roger could be just a little off like we have seen from Roger’s latest grand slam losses. These things are normal. Another thing that cannot be overlooked is that the field is constantly improving and being made better by guys like Roger and Nadal. The gap between them and the field can’t stay the same. Just because players catch up and start beating Roger doesn’t mean that all of a sudden he is old and over the hill. He still plays at a very high level. It’s just that the players on a level just below him is having more good days. Sampras also said in an old interview that he personally played his best tennis when he got older:

“The best tennis I played was when I was older. I wasn’t as consistent week in and week out but that match I played against Andre [Agassi] at the 2002 US Open – my last match ever – was the highest level I have ever played.

“Everyone was getting better when I was No 1 in the world and winning majors left and right. I was 10 times the player as I got older. When I was dominating I didn’t have any bad matches and players overall weren’t as good. The 2002 US Open Pete would beat the 1994 or 1995 Pete easily.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/last-match-was-best-i-ever-played-says-sampras-577514.html

This reminds me of the 2010 Oz Open and the Masters Cup last year when Roger played as well as I’ve ever seen him. He may not be as consistent these days because the field has improved so much, but he is still a very good player. It is hard for me to say he is now better than he was in his prime. I would rather day he is becoming a more intelligent player and looking to adjust more. In his prime he was amazing, but also stubborn when he played Nadal for instance. He realizes now that the field is catching up with him and with the help of Annacone he is looking to do something about that. Like Sampras says, it is not like he is going to change a game that won 16 majors, but he is making some small and necessary adjustments. It is almost scary to think that Roger is so much fresher than Sampras was at comparative ages.

Roger is clearly still very motivated and enjoying his tennis very much. There is nothing false about this statement. Therefor I must also agree with Sampras that Roger will win more majors. As in more than one. And I also agree with Sampras that Roger’s best chances will be at Wimbledon and the US Open. This is the faster surfaces where Roger’s more attacking game will be more successful. Roland Garros will be more difficult as well as the Oz Open as we saw just now. I would say over the next 2-3 years Roger will still be at least the joint favorite at Wimbledon and the Us Open. That should be enough time to bag multiple slams and who knows, he may even continue winning slams after that. You can never say never with this extraordinary tennis player and individual.