Roger Federer Ends the Year on a Huge High with Fifth Masters Cup Title

Posted on November 29, 2010November 29, 2010 by Ru-an | 74 Comments

Sorry for the delay in my post but I had to watch the rerun before I made the post. You just had the feeling Roger would win this one didn’t you? Or at least I did. Many things pointed towards it. Since Wimbledon Roger has been slowly and steadily building his confidence back up which took a dive after a visit to Ethiopia, having just won the Australian Open. His results have been so steady that he was bound to break through and do something special. But this result was never certain. He still had to go out there and win it. It was crucial that he got this win right at the end of the season, and therefor there was a lot of pressure going into this match. Had he not won it, I would personally have called this season a bit of a disappointment. Sure he started off fantastically by winning a slam, but the clay and grass court season was a big disappointment.

And even though he got his act together after Wimbledon, he still lost before the finals of the US Open for the first time in six years. And he did so after having match points. The loss against Monfils in Paris after having match points was yet another big disappointment for me. It was the fourth time this year that he lost after having match points. To be honest I was a bit worried. Had Roger Federer lost his mojo for good? Nothing less than a title at the MC would convince me otherwise, and he had to do so by beating Nadal in the final. I have been building this up for months now. I said I would believe Roger’s mojo is back if he can beat Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal in one event, and that is exactly what he did. He couldn’t have done it in more convincing fashion either, crushing both Murray and Djokovic, and handing Nadal the bread stick in the final yesterday.

That’s right, the GOAT is back in no uncertain terms. He beat Murray 6-4, 6-2, Djokovic 6-1, 6-4, and Nadal 6-3, 3-6, 6-1. It doesn’t get any better than that. And that is leaving out the Soderling and Ferrer wins. The final yesterday was high quality stuff as expected. For Nadal to have taken a set off Roger while he is in this mode says something about his level of play too. Roger’s serve was terrific in the first set, and he held his service games with ease. On the return he started off nervous, which was to be expected in a match of this magnitude. Soon he found his range though. His backhand was simply devastating. The point of the match came at 3-2 when there was a long rally with some incredible ball striking. After pushing Nadal around on the baseline, Nadal came up with a backhand of his own which put him in control of the rally again, only for Roger to hit a clean winner off the backhand side.

In the next point there was yet another extended rally which Nadal ended with a huge forehand of his own. Nadal held serve, and in the next game Roger went down 0-30 on his serve. It was his first big test, and he passed it with flying colors, winning the next four points in convincing style. That was the decisive moment of the first set, because in the next game Roger broke serve. He came back from a 40-15 deficit in that game and broke Nadal with a stunning backhand cross court angle which was probably the shot of the match for me. Even the fastest player in the world could not reach it after it dropped inside the service box. Advantage Federer. At 5-3 Roger then served out the first set to love. It was the perfect first set. It was only expected then that his level would drop slightly in the second set and that Nadal would push hard to get back into the match.

I kept telling Roger to just keep it solid and not lose serve. His first serve percentage was dropping though, and you could almost sense the inevitable as Nadal broke in the fourth game to take a 4-1 lead. I was hoping Roger could somehow get the break back, but Nadal wanted none of it. He served out the set at 5-3 to make it one set all. This was probably the most nervous time of the match, knowing that it was a one set playoff for the title. I sensed that Roger would lift his level again however. Nadal was always going to come back in the match, and it was just a question of Roger raising his level again, while it was almost certain that Nadal would not be able to keep his level of the second set. Roger is just impossible to hang with in that form. The fact that Nadal was able to delay the inevitable by taking a set is an achievement in itself.

In the third set Roger’s first serve percentage picked up again which put the pressure right back on Nadal. When Roger is serving like he did in the first and third sets it’s virtually impossible for Nadal to hang with him. After Nadal evened things up at 1-1 in the third, Roger cruised through the next five games to send Nadal packing. The slice serve out wide on the deuce court was especially effective. This is the obvious serve to use against the left hander. It goes to his backhand side and opens up the whole court. Add to that the backhand cross court angle which Roger hit so superbly well, and you have the tools to tame Nadal. Those were really the two shots that stood out for me. Basically Roger did exactly what I said he should. He served well and kept the points short with attacking tennis. He hit several forehand and backhand winners from the base line.

He approached the net when in control of a point to make sure Nadal doesn’t have a prayer of getting back in the point. But he also approached the net behind some good approaches and volleyed skillfully. He kept it attacking on the return as well. None of the unnecessary negative chip returns which allowed Nadal to dominate the rally. Of course the indoor conditions didn’t hurt, but this is the game plan that Roger must bring to slower surfaces as well. This was obviously a massive a win for Roger. I can’t praise Roger enough for the week he had. You will remember I was quite negative before the event, but as I watched Roger throughout the week I became impressed to the point that I had virtually no doubt he would beat Nadal. This was like an early birthday present for me and an early Christmas present for the rest of you Fedfanatics.

We couldn’t possibly have asked for a better end to the year. If there was ever any doubt about Roger’s age slowing him down, this win basically shatters those doubts. I have persisted with my believe that Roger’s age is is over hyped for a while now, and even though I have had my own doubts at times, my believe has paid off. It was a question of confidence all along as I protested. It should be clear now that the slump in mid season was a kind of blessing in disguise. It forced Roger to look at his stubbornness and it resulted in him adding Annacone to his camp. Who knows exactly how much difference Annacone has made to Roger’s game so far. But it is not just the tennis, but also the mental difference of making a change and a new beginning. Roger is not someone who likes to make too many changes.

He is naturally stubborn, but this was a necessary change and it is really paying off. And it’s paying off sooner than I thought. When Roger hired Annacone I was more looking towards next year to see any real results, but the results came immediately. Still, there was something missing. Roger had not convinced me as recent as the loss to Monfils. But what happened at the MC changed all that. Roger is now well and truly back. Not that he was ever gone, but he proved a lot with this title. It is obvious that he can still play at his very best level and dominate tennis. It was simply crucial that he won this title against Nadal after Nadal won three slams this year. By this win he reminded Nadal that he is right there with him. It is so important going into Australia next year as well. Nadal must not be allowed to win Australia next year.

If he does so he will have won four slams in a row, something Roger could never do. It will also mean that he will probably win five slams in a row, given that the French open is basically a lock for him. He can also win Wimbledon, which then gives him six slams in a row. And if he does that he will have a chance at the calender slam. And if he manages to achieve that feat, he would be very close to being the GOAT already. This is looking very far ahead of course, but I’m trying to tell you how important it is that Nadal is not allowed to win in Australia. The MC was just a preview of things to come really. Australia is where it’s at. If Roger and Nadal meets in the final there it will be absolutely massive, and it is very likely to happen. By winning such an encounter Roger could virtually settle the GOAT debate.

There would be an immense amount at stake. If Roger defends his title he would have a good chance of reclaiming the number one spot in the rankings during the clay and grass court season and finally break Sampras’ record weeks at number one. At the moment he is still 0-1 against Nadal in hard court slams which is just plain wrong. I would like nothing more than for Roger to settle the score after losing to Nadal in that 2009 final. It is slower conditions than the MC indoors, but Roger should never have lost that 2009 final in the first place. The idea is that this time around he puts Nadal away when he has the chance. He didn’t do it in 2009 and he must have learned from that. I’m sure Annacone would point that out to him. But aside from the reasons that I mentioned, the most important reason for him to win Australian is to stop Nadal from winning four slams in a row.

Let me get back to yesterday’s match for a second. This win makes the h2h off of clay 6-4 in Roger’s favor now. It also affirms that the h2h is massively overrated. Lets assume for a second that the twelve meetings on clay between the two was instead on indoor hard. Indoor hard is arguably Roger’s best surface, while clay is Nadal’s best. If that was the case the h2h would have been pretty much the direct inverse of what it is now, if not more in Roger’s favor. Roger is now 3-0 against Nadal on indoor. It is just virtually impossible for Nadal to beat Roger indoors when he is playing anywhere close to his best, just as it is virtually impossible for Roger to beat Nadal on clay when he is anywhere near his beat. But first of all there isn’t that many indoor events, and second Nadal doesn’t make it far enough in those events to face Roger.

If anything, the h2h proves that Roger is a better player on his worst surface(clay) than Nadal is on his worst surface(indoor). Time and time again Roger makes it to clay court finals only to lose to Nadal, but where is Nadal in the indoor finals? Another problem is that conditions on the ATP tour is slow in general. The grass court season is short compared to the clay court season, and by far the most hard court events are outdoors. On top of that, the grass and indoor surfaces have been slowed down. Everything is in favor of Nadal. If you can’t see my logic about the h2h then I doubt you have logic at all. Lets say Roger have played against Nadal many times on indoor hard from the start, instead of clay. Or not even indoor hard. Lets just say fast hard. He would have beaten Nadal repeatedly just like Nadal have beaten Roger repeatedly on clay.

This would have no doubt resulted in Roger ‘owning’ Nadal, just like Nadal currently ‘owns’ Roger in the h2h. It is simply what happens when you play a guy repeatedly on their best surface. It has absolutely nothing to do with the other guy being better. It’s like Sampras and Agassi playing more than half of their matches on clay, which Agassi would have undoubtedly won 90% of, and then saying Agassi is the better player or that he ‘owns’ Sampras. It just makes no sense. Sampras was not good enough on clay to meet Agassi there enough. Even if Agassi made every clay final he would hardly ever have faced Sampras. I think you get my point. The critics latch onto the h2h between Roger and Nadal because it is really the only thing they can find to damage Roger’s legacy. But anyone with a sober mind can see just how flawed their argument really is.

That is enough of the h2h. Like I said, this was a big win for Roger, but the real test will come in Australia next year. Enjoy this win, but don’t think the score is settled once and for all. Only when Roger defends his title in Oz next year will I really relax. At the very least Nadal must not win the title. But it’s hard to see anyone other than Roger stopping Nadal there anyway, so it is likely that Roger will have to do so himself in the final. Just a final word to any of the Nadal fans that claims Nadal was tired in the third set. You are talking about a guy here who has taken off three weeks from the tour before the MC, while Roger has played five events in the last seven weeks. Not to mention that Nadal is supposedly the fittest player on tour, that he is 24 years old, and that Roger himself is 29 years old.

The tiredness argument has obviously no validity at all. The Nadal fans will find an excuse no matter what anyway. Some fans are so deluded that hey actually believe Nadal have never lost a match when fully fit and rested. Even if Nadal was slightly tired from his match against Murray, there was no way he was going to beat Jesusfed anyway. This title gives Roger his fifth MC title of course, tying him with the record set my Lendl and Sampras. It also means Nadal still has zero MC titles, emphasizing his shortcomings on fast courts. Clearly Roger is much more capable on his worst surface(clay) than Nadal is on his(indoor), having won several important clay court titles including a grand slam. Nadal has won all of one indoor title in Madrid. OK I better finish up with this post. I just want to say congrats to Roger and all of his fans who have actually stuck with him through all the tough losses.

This win makes all of those losses worth while. And there certainly have been some tough losses this year. The future looks bright now. There is no telling how long Roger can still stay at the top of the game after this. He is clearly far from done. How good is it to be Federer fan?

Ps. I didn’t even get to the match stats. There is just too much to cover in one post here. Let me just say that the most impressive stat was the 3/3 break points won. It really made all the difference in the end.

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Bs1CDKirXE&feature=youtu.be

Interview: http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=67864

Masters Cup Final Preview – For the Record

Posted on November 28, 2010November 28, 2010 by Ru-an | 30 Comments

Yesterday I made a post right after I watched the two semi-finals and previewed the Fedal final of today. But almost right after I made it my post started bothering me. I guess I got swept away again by my own emotions because I virtually gave Nadal no chance to win. So I just want to set the record straight here. I still think Roger can win this in straight sets, but I don’t want to make it seem like it’s a foregone conclusion. We know the problems that Nadal have given Roger in the past. It is not an easy match up for him and Nadal has had the best year of his life in 2010. Personally I just feel like in the context of the Fedal rivalry this is now Roger’s time. Many things points to it. Roger have beaten Nadal seven times, so it’s far from a far gone conclusion that Nadal wins whenever they step on the court.

Roger has had some big wins of his own over Nadal, including two wins at the Masters Cup in 2006 and 2007. On both those occasions Roger was pretty much in the zone, beating Nadal in straight sets on both occasions. But a couple of things is different on this occasion. Nadal is a better hard court player than he was back then, and the courts are also slower then they were in Shanghai. Also, Roger is not in his prime anymore. Having said that, Roger is playing very close to that level right now. He also has Annacone in his camp now and may have a better idea of what tactics to use this time around. Nadal has now already won three slams this year. If he wins the Masters Cup it would just underscore his dominance. I’m not sure Roger is ready to allow it. I think he desperately wants this title to show that Nadal can’t just dominate at will.

Nadal has won this year fair and square and deserves to be number one. But I think it is very important that Roger wins this title to make Nadal’s dominance less complete. A slam and a Masters Cup, as well as other titles, would still make this a very good year for Roger. It would remind Nadal that he can’t dominate when Roger is on form. I mean lets face it, Roger was not at his normal level during the clay and grass court seasons. He only started gaining form again after Wimbledon. Even at the US Open he was still some way off his best level. This means Nadal has won all these slams while Roger was in a slump, just as Roger won he French and Wimbledon when Nadal was in a slump last year. Roger has a chance to prove today that Nadal would have found it much harder to win the last three slams had he been himself.

It will also be a huge mental boost going into next year, and it may just trigger another slump from Nadal. Roger and Nadal’s dominance goes in cycles. Nadal has now had his most impressive phase of dominance yet. There is talk that he can win the Australian Open and win four slams in a row, something Roger could never do. There is even talk that he can win the calender slam next year. It my opinion the latter is just a bit silly. You think Roger is just gonna stand by and watch Nadal smash his records? Think again. I find it hard to believe Nadal’s dominance will continue for much longer. I think he is getting near the end of his cycle now. If Roger wins today it may well be the start of s new period of dominance for him and a downswing for Nadal. I think today is crucial for Roger especially with the eye on Australia next year.

Roger must make it clear that he is not going to allow Nadal to achieve something he could not by winning four slams in a row. Roger’s form on the other hand is verging on his very best. If he wins today it will confirm that he is back to his very best, and he will be the overwhelming favorite to win in Australia again next year. But let me come back to the reason I made this post. In the past I have often been very positive about Roger’s chances. In fact a bit too positive. I became fanatic. I’m not afraid to admit it. It’s never good to be that attached to the outcome of anything, because if it doesn’t turn out the way you want it to you set yourself up for disappointment. I have learned my lesson. No result in tennis is ever sure. To believe otherwise is madness. So I just want to make it clear that I am not certain of the outcome by any means.

Nadal has an incredible defense and Roger must find as way to pierce it. But as good as Nadal’s defense is, so good is Roger’s offense. And I still believe the best offense is better than the best defense any day. I also respect offense more because the offensive player takes initiative, while the defensive player just waits and hope the offensive player falters. In the Madrid final of 2009 Roger showed why offense is better than defense. On clay and in Nadal’s backyard he literally hit Nadal off the court with a master class of attacking tennis. He was absolutely brutal on anything short and never let Nadal settle into a rhythm. This is what he needs to do again today and he is well capable of doing so. He is well capable of blitzing Nadal in straight sets. I have no doubt about it. Here is what he needs to do:

Take care of his own service games by serving a high first serve percentage and be brutal on any short returns from Nadal.
Make a lot of returns and be as offensive as possible, putting Nadal under pressure immediately. Taking care of his own serve well will already put Nadal pressure on his won serve.
Take the ball on the rise and not allow Nadal to hit his moonballs to his backhand and thereby exposing that wing. Also run around the backhand side to protect his backhand and crush the forehand to keep Nadal under pressure.
Use the slice selectively to keep Nadal from settling into a rhythm.
Approach the net to keep Nadal of balance as well. Basically keep Nadal guessing all the time.

Basically Madrid ’09 is the perfect example, aside from the drop shots and the fact that it was on clay. Because this is hard court he won’t use that many drop shots, and the hard court will make it easier to play attacking tennis. But he doesn’t need to think too much about tactics. I think if he goes out there and just play his natural game it will be enough to get the job done. If he plays similar to the Djokovic match I think Nadal will have a hard time. I also think it is important that Roger makes sure that this isn’t close. When it gets close it will play into Nadal’s strength, which is mental toughness. As long as it is a relatively straight forward win Nadal’s clutch tennis won’t come into play. But if it goes to tie breaks and third sets it will get harder for Roger. The Madrid ’09 final is again a good example here. He blitzed Nadal, never allowing him to come up with clutch tennis.

In fact he came up with clutch tennis himself when he served a second serve ace on break point down in the second. He may have to do something similar today. It will come down to one or two crucial points probably. The main thing is that I don’t want to get attached to a result here again, because if Roger does end up losing, it will be too disappointing. After all, the fact that we don’t know the outcome is what makes it interesting. I just want to sit back and enjoy what promises to be another spectacular match in this epic rivalry without any attachments and expectations. Good luck to Roger and all Fedfans!

The Stage is Set, a Fedal Final it Will Be at the Masters Cup

Posted on November 28, 2010November 28, 2010 by Ru-an | 12 Comments

Well what a fantastic day of tennis that was. First there was an epic battle between Nadal and Murray which Nadal finally won 7-6(5), 3-6, 7-6(6), and then there was an absolute master class from the GOAT as he wiped the floor with Djokovic 6-1, 6-4. You could not have hoped for a better day’s viewing. In the first match it was a battle between the two fastest players on tour, slugging it out from the base line in lengthy rallies. The second match was the opposite. If there was nothing in the first match, the second match was utter dominance by the greatest player the world has ever seen. It was a masterful display of offensive tennis the likes of which we haven’t seen from Roger in a long time. Utter devastation. But first things first. I predicted that Nadal would beat Murray, but never did I think it will be that close.

Especially not after Nadal won the first set. The first set was a close affair with Nadal winning the tie break with his usual clutch tennis. I thought Murray would get down on himself, but he caught fire midway through the second set and broke Nadal twice, which meant he started serving in the third. The momentum was fully with him, but quite expectedly he choked it away with some terrible tennis. Nadal had the break in the third, and at this point I really believed it was over. But shockingly, Murray broke back as Nadal was serving for the match. It went into the tie break where Murray lead 3-0 at one stage with two mini breaks. But I knew Nadal was far from done at this point. Nadal got one mini break and they changed sides at 4-2. I knew Murray needed another break for insurance, but could not manage it.

Nadal then proceeded to to get the other break back on one of Murray’s next two service points to bring it back on serve. At 6-6 Murray went for the forehand winner into the open court, but just missed. Nadal held serve and it was all over. At least this time Murray went down playing an attacking shot, instead of waiting for his opponent to falter. Therefor I can’t blame Murray here. And besides, I wanted Nadal to win. I wanted Roger to have the chance to beat Nadal in the final. This match reminded me a lot of the Nadal/Djokovic semi in Madrid ’09. It was very similar, and the fact that Nadal came out on top of both these matches is no coincidence. He is just that clutch. When it gets that close he always wins. I really expected him to close it out earlier, but a win is a win all the same.

Murray did his job by softening up Nadal and showing that he is vulnerable. As far as Roger’s match goes, there was always only one winner. The first set was JesusFed at his best. Djokovic did nothing wrong, because in this mode no touches Roger. It’s really breathtaking stuff. At the start of the second Roger played two disappointing games in the second and third game. He dropped serve in the second game, but had chances to break right back in the next game. He wasted at least four break points there and Djokovic took a 3-0 lead. I was mad that Roger did not at least break right back when he had the opportunity, and so was he. Or at least so it appeared to be, because after that he allowed Djokovic only one more game. He locked right back into JesusFed mode to even thing up at 3-3. He then wasted some more break points and allowed Djokovic to take a 4-3 lead.

But he finally took advantage of another break point in the ninth game to take a 5-4 lead, after which he comfortably served out the match. There was some fantastic rallies in this match, especially in the second set. Djokovic put up a spirited fight, but Roger is simply unbeatable in this mode. He takes the ball so incredibly early and hits it so hard that no one can live with him. Towards the end he teed off with his forehand on the ad court when Djokovic was serving. His forehand was simply deadly. There was some wicked backhands down the line as well, not to mention volleys. If I can find any fault with his game, it was the break points that he wasted, but 4/11 still isn’t the worst that you’ll see. It was pretty much a perfect match as far as I’m concerned. It was exactly what was needed before a crucial final.

Roger is the overwhelming favorite to win tomorrow in my mind. I don’t give a rats ass about the head-to-head or what happened in the past. The people who think Nadal actually owns Roger are deluded. I have been over the reasons for this before, but 14-7 isn’t owning someone anyway. Owning is the 16-0 h2h that Lendl had against Gilbert, or 20-2 that Roger has against Roddick. That is what you call ownage. Roger has reminded Nadal many times that he doesn’t own him, and tomorrow he will do so again. I am 99% sure of that. Surprised? I bet you probably are, and you are feeling nervous about tomorrow’s match. Well I’m not. I believe this will play out very much exactly like Madrid ’09. Nadal won’t be 100% fresh tomorrow I think, but it doesn’t even matter. I think Roger will be too good anyway.

If he plays like he did against Djokovic I can’t see how Nadal has any chance here. I believe Roger will prove once again tomorrow why he is in fact the GOAT. At his best he will be too good, even for his so-called nemesis. He will go out there and play like he did in that Madrid final, putting Nadal under immense pressure with attacking tennis. The stage is set. Murray has done his job by tiring Nadal. It is now up to Roger to go finish him off. You may protest that the same thing happened in Australia last year, only for Roger to go choke it away in the final. This is however a different situation. Nadal has dominated this year, just like he did up until Madrid in ’09. If you can remember, at some point before Madrid Roger said that he can still rattle Nadal. Well he said something similar after the US Open this year.

I don’t know exactly when it was, but he said something along the lines of thinking it’s about time to beat Nadal again. I think it is happening again tomorrow. This may well be another pivotal point in the Fedal rivalry. If Roger wins tomorrow, which I believe will happen, you may see something similar happen what happened after the ’09 Madrid final. Roger went on to dominate while Nadal slumped. This is just the ebb and flow of the Fedal rivalry. It is bound to happen. Nadal has been dominating for a while now, and it is likely that Roger once again take over the domination tomorrow. These two guys are just so evenly matched that neither one of them can keep dominating indefinitely. At some point the tide must turn. I believe tomorrow will be such a moment. This was what should have happened at the US Open, but it wasn’t Roger’s time yet.

He was not ready for Nadal and would undoubtedly have lost had he made the final. But this time he is ready, as evidenced by the way in which he destroyed Djokovic. If Roger was in this form in the US open final, he would have destroyed Nadal too. But Roger needed more time to build his confidence back up, and he is now supremely confident. Nadal is in trouble here. There is no doubt about it. I predict Roger will win this is straight sets, and remind the tennis world that his time at the top is far from over. If he does win the title, it will mean that he equals the record amount of five Masters Cup titles set by Lendl and Sampras. It will also mean that Nadal still has a big fat zero MC titles. I think Nadal wants this title badly, but for once I think he is going to be denied. He may win it in the future, but I seriously doubt it is happening tomorrow.

And Roger has to make sure that Nadal can’t just take whatever he rests his eyes on. If Nadal does not win this title this year it will frustrate him. Knowing that his main rival, who is supposedly way past his prime, has just won the fifth slam for the fifth time, while he has done so zero times, will hurt him. It is all about adding to his legacy and making it harder and harder for Nadal to ever catch him as the GOAT. Make no mistake about it. Tomorrow there is a lot on the line. But I think Roger has this one figured out. All he needs to to is put Nadal under constant, immense pressure like he did in Madrid ’09, and he has got this in the bag. In fact this will be even easier because it is on hard court and not in Nadal’s backyard. OK, I think I have hyped up Roger’s chances enough to jinx him, so if he does lose you are welcome to blame me.

Just kidding! I don’t think Roger is losing this thing. But if the result was certain there would be no need to play the match. Nothing is ever certain in tennis, but you have my prediction. Now let the final showdown begin…

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=federer+vs+djokovic+london+2010&aq=f