Brexit would jeopardise the lives of 30,000 cancer patients, mental health services, drugs and day-to-day healthcare, warns 'impartial' NHS boss

  • NHS England chief executive says a Brexit vote would be 'very dangerous' 
  • Simon Stevens says leaving EU would send UK economy into a 'tailspin'
  • Brexit would have knock-on effects on NHS funding and recruitment
  • He says EU's open borders is vital to fill jobs in the NHS and claims some of 130,000 EU workers in the NHS could quit the UK after Brexit
  • His dramatic intervention is controversial as he is meant to be neutral
  • But Cameron welcomes intervention and tells voters to listen to experts 

Leaving the EU would jeopardise the lives of 30,000 cancer patients, mental health services, drugs and day-to-day healthcare in the UK, the head of NHS England warned today. 

Simon Stevens said a Brexit vote would be 'very dangerous' for the NHS because it would send the economy into a 'tailspin', which would subsequently starve the health service of essential funding. 

He also said the EU's open borders was vital to fill jobs in the NHS and Brexit could trigger a recruitment crisis as some of the 130,000 European doctors, nurses and care workers could quit the UK if Britain votes to leave in the June 23 referendum. 

Mr Stevens echoed warnings from two of his predecessors - Lord Crisp and Sir David Nicholson - who said the already 'fragile' NHS would suffer heavily from the 'economic leap in the dark' of a vote to quit the EU. 

His dramatic intervention this morning is a controversial move because his role as chief executive of NHS England is meant to make him impartial during election campaigns.

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NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens (pictured on the Andrew Marr Show this morning) warned that a Brexit vote would be 'dangerous' for the NHS'

NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens (pictured on the Andrew Marr Show this morning) warned that a Brexit vote would be 'dangerous' for the NHS'

Brexit campaigners immediately hit back, blaming Mr Stevens for making a 'very considerable mess' of the NHS and claimed the biggest danger to Britain's health service was staying in the EU.

The Vote Leave campaign argues that were Britain to leave the EU, the Government could spend the £350 million it currently sends to Brussels each week on plugging funding gaps in the NHS.   

Former Labour foreign secretary Lord Owen, who is campaigning for Brexit, said Mr Stevens should 'better stick to his lathe, which is to manage the health service a great deal more successfully.'

'If there's any danger to the NHS it is in staying in', Lord Owen added. 

In other developments today with a month to go until the referendum: 

  • David Cameron launched an astonishing attack on his own defence minister Penny Mordaunt after she warned Britain was powerless to millions of criminals from Turkey flooding to the UK 
  • He reacted angrily to Mordaunt's prediction that it was 'very likely' Turkey will join the EU within the next eight years and claimed Britain 'doesn't have a veto to stop it joining 
  • The PM claimed family food bills will soar by more than £220 a year after a Brexit vote
  • Four of UK's most successful high street bosses also warned that leaving the EU prove 'catastrophic' for millions of families and consumers
  • The Tory civil war over Europe intensified further after it emerged pro-EU Tory grandee Sir Nicholas Soames told Brexit MP James Cleverly: 'F*** off you c***'
  • Brexit campaigners brace themselves for the publication of another major Treasury analysis of the economic consequences of leaving the EU on Monday

The NHS has become an increasingly central topic in the EU referendum campaign, with pro-EU campaigners arguing that NHS funding can only be guaranteed by a strong economy and claim the uncertainty of a Brexit vote would threaten future healthcare spending. 

Mr Stevens said his views had been guided by Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, who last week warned that leaving the EU could send the economy into a technical recession.

David Cameron (pictured on the Peston on Sunday Show on ITV this morning) welcomed the intervention from Mr Stevens and said voters needed to listen to the concerns from such experts, dismissing complaints that civil servants should remain neutral. 

David Cameron (pictured on the Peston on Sunday Show on ITV this morning) welcomed the intervention from Mr Stevens and said voters needed to listen to the concerns from such experts, dismissing complaints that civil servants should remain neutral. 

He said any fall in the value of the pound would affect drug treatments that the NHS buys because costs are priced in euros and dollars. If sterling drops in value, the cost of imports increase.  

Dismissing chief Brexit campaigner Michael Gove's warnings about the 'unsustainable' pressure on the NHS, Mr Stevens insisted any pressure on the health service is outweighed by the revenue the NHS receives from EU migrants paying tax and the number of EU nationals who work for the NHS.

He said: 'When Mark Carney says that the risk of a slowdown in economic growth, possibly a recession if we end up exiting the EU... then that is a severe concern for the National Health Service, because it would be very dangerous if at precisely the moment the NHS is going to need extra funding actually the economy goes into a tailspin and that funding is not there.'

Asked what a Brexit vote would mean for the NHS, Mr Stevens replied: 'We can see that we've got a clear plan to improve cancer services - saving 30,000 lives over the next five years - we need to upgrade our mental health services; we need to strengthen primary care [and] in order to put the fuel in the tank, we will need the proceeds of economic growth.

'It's been true for the 68 years of the NHS' history that when the British economy sneezes the NHS catches a cold, this would be a terrible moment for that to happen at precisely the time the NHS is going to need that extra investment.'  

NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens (pictured speaking to Andrew Marr this morning) also said the EU's open borders was vital to fill jobs in the NHS and Brexit could trigger a recruitment crisis as some of the 130,000 European doctors, nurses and care workers could quit the UK if Britain votes to leave in the June 23 referendum.

NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens (pictured speaking to Andrew Marr this morning) also said the EU's open borders was vital to fill jobs in the NHS and Brexit could trigger a recruitment crisis as some of the 130,000 European doctors, nurses and care workers could quit the UK if Britain votes to leave in the June 23 referendum.

Prime Minister David Cameron on ITV's Peston on Sunday this morning
Prime Minister David Cameron on ITV's Peston on Sunday this morning

David Cameron (pictured ITV's Peston on Sunday show this morning) said Simon Stevens was 'making a very important point which is the fortunes of the NHS are tied to the fortunes of the economy' 

He insisted he was not telling people how to vote but 'simply speaking for the NHS and talking about what the NHS will require'. 

He said it was 'perfectly reasonable' for the NHS to lay out the 'practical realities' of how a Brexit would impact the institution in a 'balanced, non-sensationalist way'. 

DAVID CAMERON ADMITS HE'S 'POSH' - IN A VERY POSH WAY 

Pressed on whether he saw himself as 'posh', David Cameron (pictured on ITV's Peston on Sunday show) said: 'I can't hide my background and upbringing and I never have done so'

David Cameron admitted he is 'posh' as he was put on the spot in a live TV interview this morning.

The Prime Minister said he had never tried to hide his privileged background, having had 'an amazing start in life' but insisted his Queen's Speech last week was about giving other people the same opportunities he had growing up. 

He joked that 'posh' had various meanings, including the acronym POSH, which stands for 'Port Out, Starboard Home'.

'It originally meant which side of a ship you were on when you were travelling out to India,' he told ITV's Peston on Sunday show, drawing observers to suggest this was the 'most posh answer' he could give.  

Pressed on whether he saw himself as 'posh' in the more common meaning of the word, Mr Cameron said: 'I can't hide my background and upbringing and I never have done so.

Last week Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was asked on the same show whether he saw himself as 'middle class'. 

He gave a similarly awkward answer, initially saying: 'Oh gawd… I dunno.' 

But he finally admitted: 'Yes, every MP has a lifestyle which is, I suppose, more or less, middle class.

And praising the contribution of EU migrants to the NHS and wider economy, Mr Stevens said: 

'This is not black and white. It clearly is the case that where those migrants are paying taxes that is contributing to the revenues that can afford an expanding NHS.'

Writing in the Sunday Times Lord Crisp and Sir David Nicholson - who between them ran the NHS between 2000 and 2014, warned that Britain would find it 'harder and more costly' to employ EU workers if Britain left the EU. 

They also warned that Brexit would cast doubt on the ability for Britons living in the EU overseas to claim free healthcare and also said the UK would lose essential EU grants for medical research.  

David Cameron welcomed today's intervention from Mr Stevens and said voters needed to listen to the concerns from such experts, dismissing complaints that civil servants should remain neutral. 

'Simon Stevens was making a very important point which is the fortunes of the NHS are tied to the fortunes of the economy,' Mr Cameron said. 

'If we have a strong economy, we can have a strong NHS. Now all the experts seem to be saying, the IMF, the OECD, the Bank of England, the Treasury, the Office of Budget responsibility, are all saying the economy would suffer if we left the European Union and the single market. 

'And that is quite a consensus. And I think that if that were to happen obviously it would have a bad effect on the NHS.' 

With 31 days to go until the referendum, today was another fierce day of warnings of the impact of a Brexit vote. 

Mr Cameron jumped on the intervention of four of Britain's most successful high street bosses this morning after they claimed a Brexit vote would cause shop prices to rocket and prove ‘catastrophic’ for millions of families and consumers.

After visiting an Asda supermarket in west London this morning, he said the impact of leaving the EU would have a particular impact on food prices because 'so much of our food is imported' from Europe's single market.

He said Treasury analysis published tomorrow will show food bills for a family of four could rise by more than £220 a year within two years of leaving the Brussels club. 

But Brexit campaigners dismissed his warnings, saying independent experts had found the EU 'pushes up the prices in our supermarkets because of its protectionist policies'.

Defence minister Penny Mordaunt
Prime Minister David Cameron

David Cameron (pictured on the Peston on Sunday show this morning, right) rebuked his own defence minister Penny Mordaunt (pictured left on the Andrew Marr Show), saying she was 'absolutely wrong' to claim Britain 'doesn't' have a veto over Turkey joining the EU

Sir Winston Churchill's pro-EU grandson Sir Nicholas Soames
Tory MP James Cleverly

Sir Winston Churchill's pro-EU grandson Sir Nicholas Soames (left) launched a foul-mouthed four-letter rant against fellow Tory MP James Cleverly (right)

The Prime Minister also launched an astonishing attack on his own defence minister Penny Mordaunt after she warned Britain was powerless to millions of criminals from Turkey flooding to the UK.

Ms Mordaunt, who was appointed as a minister by Mr Cameron as recently as last year, said it is 'very likely' Turkey will join the EU within the next eight years and claimed Britain 'doesn't' have a veto to stop it joining.

This would make the UK vulnerable to millions of terrorists, gangsters and 12 million more guns if we stay in the EU, pointing to higher murder and kidnapping rates and gun ownership in Turkey and the other four countries currently applying to join the Brussels club. 

But just minutes after she issued the warning on TV this morning, Mr Cameron firmly rebuked his minister, saying she was 'absolutely wrong' to claim Britain did not have a veto on new EU nations. 

He said Turkey joining the EU was 'not remotely on the cards' and remarkably, he even called into question her judgement as a minister - despite appointing her to the post last year. 

In further signs of the escalating division within the Tory party, it was revealed that Sir Nicholas Soames launched a foul-mouthed four-letter rant against a fellow Tory MP who is campaigning for Brexit.

James Cleverly, the newly elected Conservative MP for Braintree, approached Sir Winston Churchill's grandson in a Commons dining room to say he agreed with his appeal for the party to unite after June's EU referendum and to hold off from personal attacks.

But in an astonishing response, Sir Nicholas reportedly told Mr Cleverly: 'F*** off you c***. 

 

Family food bill will soar by £220 a year if we quit the EU, warns David Cameron as high street bosses warn of 'catastrophic' consequences of Brexit

Families would face soaring food bills of more than £220 a year if Britain leaves the EU, David Cameron warned today. 

The Prime Minister jumped on the intervention of four of Britain's most successful high street bosses this morning after they claimed a Brexit vote would cause shop prices to rocket and prove ‘catastrophic’ for millions of families and consumers. 

After visiting an Asda supermarket in west London this morning, he said the impact of leaving the EU would have a particular impact on food prices because 'so much of our food is imported' from Europe's single market.

But Brexit campaigners dismissed his warnings, saying independent experts had found the EU 'pushes up the prices in our supermarkets because of its protectionist policies'.

David Cameron visits an Asda supermarket in west London with former Labour interim leader Harriet Harman (left) today as he warned that family food bills could rocket by £220 a year if we leave the EU 

David Cameron visits an Asda supermarket in west London with former Labour interim leader Harriet Harman (left) today as he warned that family food bills could rocket by £220 a year if we leave the EU 

Mr Cameron said fresh analysis from the Treasury suggests the value of the pound could fall by 12 per cent following a vote to leave the Brussels club.

Such a decline in the value of sterling would push up the price of food imports and add more than £220 a year to the cost of food for a family of four within just two years, Mr Cameron said.

The research will come in a major new Treasury document published by Chancellor George Osborne tomorrow - three days before purdah rules ban ministers from using Whitehall departments to back up their arguments in the run up to the June 23 EU referendum.  

Appearing live on TV this morning, Mr Cameron asked voters: 'Is it worth taking this risk?'  

His warnings came after a dramatic intervention in the EU referendum debate from the former chiefs of Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer and B&Q say leaving the EU would have a devastating effect on the economy.

The Prime Minister (pictured talking to Asda staff in a store in west London this morning) jumped on the intervention of four of Britain's most successful high street bosses this morning after they claimed a Brexit vote would cause shop prices to rocket and prove ‘catastrophic’ for millions of families and consumers

The Prime Minister (pictured talking to Asda staff in a store in west London this morning) jumped on the intervention of four of Britain's most successful high street bosses this morning after they claimed a Brexit vote would cause shop prices to rocket and prove ‘catastrophic’ for millions of families and consumers

After visiting an Asda supermarket in west London this morning, David Cameron (pictured speaking to an Asda worker this morning) said the impact of leaving the EU would have a particular impact on food prices because 'so much of our food is imported' from Europe's single market

After visiting an Asda supermarket in west London this morning, David Cameron (pictured speaking to an Asda worker this morning) said the impact of leaving the EU would have a particular impact on food prices because 'so much of our food is imported' from Europe's single market

And they dismiss one of the key claims put forward by ‘Leave’ campaign leaders Boris Johnson and Michael Gove – that we would be better off without EU regulation – as ‘nonsense’. 

They also argue that an ‘Out’ vote could lead to a A spike in inflation, job losses and a plunging pound.  

The retail experts say the French could even start a tit-for-tat trade war in revenge, banning British lamb if we voted to sever ties with Brussels on June 23.

The warnings were backed up by former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling, who wrote in today's Mail on Sunday that Brexit could leave people around £1,800 worse off each year - or nearly £150,000 over a lifetime. 

Speaking on the Peston on Sunday show on ITV this morning, Mr Cameron said: 'You’ve got the heads of a whole bunch of some of the biggest supermarkets in our country, people who used to run them, all saying that prices would go up if we left the EU because there would be a shock to our economy, the pound would fall, and that would mean the prices we pay in our shops would be higher. 

'Particularly food, because so much of our food is imported, you could see the impact on a typical family of £220 a year. 

'And when you take all these things into account, all these economic dangers, you really have to ask yourself, "Is it worth taking this risk?" 

'And I absolutely believe as Prime Minister of this country it is not worth the risk, there would be serious damage to our economy, to jobs, to investment, so we should not take this step.' 

Sir Terry Leahy. He trebled Tesco's value to £30bn during his 14-year reign as chief executive from 1997-2011. The 60-year-old, who was knighted in 2002, now concentrates on start-ups
Sir Ian Cheshire was chief executive of B&Q owner Kingfisher from 2008-2015, doubling its value to £8bn. Knighted for services to business in 2014, he is now 56 and chairman of Debenhams

Sir Terry Leahy (left). He trebled Tesco's value to £30bn during his 14-year reign as chief executive from 1997-2011. Sir Ian Cheshire (right) was chief executive of B&Q owner Kingfisher from 2008-2015, doubling its value to £8bn

Warning of the consequences of a fall in the value of sterling, Mr Cameron added: 'The Treasury is going to be producing a report tomorrow, and part of that will be about this issue on prices, because what they are doing is taking a very simple issue on calculation, which is a whole set of economic forecasters have said that the likelihood is on average of a 12 per cent decline in Sterling, and that would translate over time into higher prices.

'Now I know that from my own experience, you know when the pound fell in 2007/8 we saw higher inflation come through in 2010/11. 

'It affected people’s living standards, it made people less well off, it damaged our economy, it held back the recovery of our economy. So this is a very serious issue for people to consider.' 

In an article in today’s Mail on Sunday, the former high street bosses – Sir Terry Leahy of Tesco, Marc Bolland of M&S, Justin King of Sainsbury’s and Sir Ian Cheshire of B&Q owner Kingfisher – say: ‘We believe an exit could be catastrophic for the consumer recovery on which so much of our economic stability depends.

They say that a victory for the ‘Leave’ campaign would force Britain to seek new trade deals with other countries – who were likely to ‘exploit this renegotiation to their benefit.’

They say the French could be particularly problematic, warning: ‘It’s difficult to imagine that French farmers will continue to allow British lamb to be freely imported.’

Although they don’t mention Boris Johnson and Michael Gove by name, they demolish their argument that Britain would be better off without EU regulations. In fact it would make it harder for UK firms to sell goods to Europe, they say.

‘It is impossible to see how there could be an exit without an impact on prices and inflation. The unintended consequences of a Leave vote and the uncertainty it would create would be a massive shock to the system’.

Justin King: Former head of M&S's food division, he became chief exec of J Sainsbury in 2004, where he remained for a decade, boosting group sales from £15bn a year to £25bn

Justin King: Former head of M&S's food division, he became chief exec of J Sainsbury in 2004, where he remained for a decade, boosting group sales from £15bn a year to £25bn

Marc Bolland: After turning ailing Morrisons in his three years as chief executive, Bolland joined M&S in 2010, and left last month. Aged 57, he is also a director of Coca-Cola

Marc Bolland: After turning ailing Morrisons in his three years as chief executive, Bolland joined M&S in 2010, and left last month. Aged 57, he is also a director of Coca-Cola

The retailers add: ‘The much-cited suggestion that we will be free of the apparent constraints of over-regulation if we leave Europe is nonsense. We need regulation to protect consumers and, if we want to continue to trade with Europe, the rules still apply.

‘If we left, there is the risk that Westminster would continue to build additional regulation on top of the European laws, making it more onerous rather than less.’

The shop bosses’ intervention was last night welcomed by David Cameron, who told The Mail on Sunday: ‘This is a stark warning from our most successful retailers about the risks Britain faces if we take a leap in the dark and leave the EU.

‘They are absolutely clear that millions of families will face higher prices in the shops’.

In his article today Mr Darling said the UK would be left ‘permanently poorer after leaving the EU, adding: ‘The cost will fall most harshly on our children and grandchildren every year of their lives.’

Between them, the four supermarket bosses employed 750,000 staff and were responsible for nearly £100 billion in annual sales.

Their views were echoed last night by a fifth former retail giant, ex-Waitrose managing director Mark Price, now a Government Trade Minister, who said: ‘Leaving the EU will see further pressure on the pound, which will mean higher prices.’ 

Mr Cameron has been buoyed by two recent polls giving his ‘Remain’ camp a double-digit lead over Mr Johnson’s ‘Leave’

Mr Cameron has been buoyed by two recent polls giving his ‘Remain’ camp a double-digit lead over Mr Johnson’s ‘Leave’

Tomorrow, the ‘Leave’ campaign will launch a provocative advertising drive designed to exploit immigration fears over the possibility of Turkey joining the EU. A nationwide poster campaign will show dozens of footsteps walking through an open British passport.

Mr Cameron has been buoyed by two recent polls giving his ‘Remain’ camp a double-digit lead over Mr Johnson’s ‘Leave’. 

But the former London Mayor hopes to close the gap when the pre-referendum purdah starts on Thursday, banning Ministers from using Whitehall to promote the ‘Remain’ argument.

The ‘blue on blue’ war of words between Tories across the divide has become increasingly bitter. Yesterday, Mr Gove’s close ally Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave, ridiculed George Osborne’s claim that house prices would plummet as a result of Brexit. 

The Chancellor was using Treasury analysis that would be banned during purdah.

Mr Cummings posted a message on Twitter saying: ‘Credibility of Whitehall forecasts deeper in toilet with HMT’s [Her Majesty’s Treasury] balls on house prices & Osborne destroying own credibility & leadership hopes’.

A spokesman for Vote Leave, responding to the retail chiefs’ article, said: ‘The EU is good for the bosses and for the bankers. It isn’t good for the public who have to pay the taxes that go to the EU instead of to our NHS and it isn’t good for small businesses. 

'As independent experts have found, the EU pushes up the prices in our supermarkets because of its protectionist policies.’

FOUR GIANTS OF UK RETAIL BREAK SILENCE WITH DEVASTATING VISION OF AN OUT VOTE 

'We have had the privilege of leading some of Britain’s largest and most successful retailers. Over the past 20 years, retail has been through a phenomenal transformation and remains one of the most dynamic and innovative industries in the UK.

Consumers have never had such a large range of choice and quality. They can shop 24 hours a day, either in stores or online, at prices more affordable than ever. This has all been achieved with Britain as part of the European Union.

Like the Leave campaigners, we believe Britain is a truly world-class country. But unlike them, we believe an exit could be catastrophic for the consumer recovery on which so much of our economic stability depends.

It is impossible for us to see how there could be an exit without an impact on prices and inflation, the strong relationships we’ve built with our EU supplier partners, and the broader innovation and digital agenda.

The unintended consequences of a Leave vote and the uncertainty it would create would be a massive shock to the system. It would probably mean further depreciation of the pound, driving up the price of imported goods for consumers.

In the UK we have strong and sophisticated supply chain relationships across Europe, integrated in a way they never were in the past. At the moment there are no barriers to trade within the EU. In trading with the rest of the world, all sorts of rules and tariffs get in the way.

A vote to exit would necessitate a complete renegotiation of our trading arrangements, which can only be of detriment to UK consumers. We can also expect our trading partners to exploit this renegotiation to their benefit. It’s difficult to imagine French farmers will continue to allow British lamb to be freely imported.

This leads to questions over the future of British agriculture as well as food manufacturing – an industry in which we are net exporters – and therefore the ultimate impact on jobs.

There is no guarantee we can renegotiate quickly and efficiently enough to deal with some of these issues. As large retailers, our experience over many years is that scale gets you a better deal and being under time pressure is never helpful.

British retail’s advancement over the next ten years is heavily reliant on investment in digital technology. The EU’s recently agreed Digital Single Market strategy will open up opportunities for business and consumers across Europe, making the single market fit for the digital age.

Britain is the digital hub of Europe and has led the way in shaping the digital economy. Indeed, this country is the e-commerce capital of Europe, with a market share of over one third. We have the expertise to continue to lead and it would be a massive missed opportunity to leave the EU now and not be part of the broader revolution.

Finally, there is the issue of regulation. The much-cited suggestion that we will be free of the apparent constraints of over-regulation if we leave Europe is nonsense.

We need regulation to protect consumers and, if we want to continue to trade with Europe, the rules still apply. If we left, there is the risk that Westminster would continue to build additional regulation on top of the European laws, making it more onerous rather than less. So it makes much more sense to have a seat at the table to shape future regulatory change rather than simply be bound by it.

There is no doubt this is a fundamental decision for the British people. While we are not advocates of scaremongering, it is just good business to understand the risks before reaching a conclusion in this complex debate. We have a responsibility to help inform the consumers we have served for many years.

While the EU is by no means perfect, exit would hit consumers the hardest. For that reason we will be voting to stay and continue to play our part in the successful and growing Europe we all want to see.'

Sir Terry Leahy, Justin King, Marc Bolland and Sir Ian Cheshire 

 

Brexit’s big idea is a total Turkey, says former Labour chancellor ALISTAIR DARLING 

Alistair Darling: 'Brexit’s big idea is a total Turkey'

Alistair Darling: 'Brexit’s big idea is a total Turkey'

If evidence is needed that Vote Leave campaigners have abandoned the economic argument, take a look at their fearmongering over new countries joining the EU. Their wild predictions are designed to deceive rather than inform.

Under current proposals, Turkey won’t join the EU in the foreseeable future. If this ever became a realistic prospect, the UK government could veto it, as could all EU countries. 

The idea that Turkey and others are on the brink of joining is such a far-fetched notion that even Boris Johnson has said it is ‘simply not on the cards’.

So why is the Leave campaign reaching for the Ukip playbook? Because they cannot win an argument that Britain’s economy will prosper outside Europe. 

Analysis by the Treasury, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation all underline the scale of the risk we face. Overwhelming evidence shows that if we vote leave, the UK would be permanently poorer. The case is unanswerable.

Assuming we were to follow Vote Leave’s policy of negotiating a new free-trade agreement, the annual cost of leaving to the economy would be the equivalent of £1,800 per person per year. This cost will fall most harshly on our children and grandchildren. 

And it’s a cost they will face every year of their lives. For those born between 2012 and 2014 the cost over their lifetime would be a staggering £145,800. Not a land of opportunity outside, but the next generation weaker and worse off.

The Governor of the Bank of England and the IMF have both said that if we leave, the result could be ‘recession’ for the British economy. The prospect sends shivers down my spine. I was there last time and I don’t want our country to revisit the experience.

If there is one thing I know about, it is how it feels when a country faces potential financial ruin. As Chancellor in 2008, I saw the catastrophic effects of a breakdown in confidence and deep uncertainty after the banking crash. I saw confidence drain and jobs threatened, forcing everyone – Government, businesses and families – to take dramatic steps to keep the economy going.

Historical evidence and recent experience show that, when we suffer recession, then insolvencies, repossessions unemployment – particularly among young people – all soar. Between 2007 and 2009, insolvencies rose more than 60 per cent, repossessions almost doubled and the number of businesses being set up collapsed.

New 'Out' poster: Vote Leave’s provocative claim that Turkey is on the brink of joining the EU is dismissed by Alistair Darling as ‘fearmongering’

New 'Out' poster: Vote Leave’s provocative claim that Turkey is on the brink of joining the EU is dismissed by Alistair Darling as ‘fearmongering’

Do we want to go through such pain again, with working people’s life chances and livelihoods under threat just as they begin to recover? Never again do I want to see people queuing to take their life savings out of cash machines or carrying boxes out of their workplaces. But that is the reality of the Vote Leave offer.

Vote Leave wants Britain to leave the EU’s single market, which was the reason we joined in the first place to pool our sovereignty and reap the benefits of having an equal part of the world’s largest free-trade area of 500 million people.

Within the single market we trade goods and services freely and set the terms of doing business. This brings £250 billion of additional trade, investment, three million jobs and lower prices.

Given those benefits, it is no wonder a majority of businesses large and small want us to stay. If we leave, we will be erecting barriers to trade that would hit half our exports. Where is the sense in that? You cannot walk out of the world’s largest free-trade zone one minute and expect all its benefits to fall into your lap the next.

Norway, outside the EU, has access to trade but has no say over the rules it has to play by. It also must accept free movement of people – the very thing the Leave campaign has set itself against. Switzerland has even more limited access, and Canada, which Boris says we should follow, will not have the full access to Europe’s markets that we have today. 

What about trade with the rest of the world? There is nothing to stop us selling more right now to the likes of China or India. Germany, which has a highly successful export trade in engineering goods, does very well while still being a major player in the EU.

The single market works. It protects jobs, which in turn generate money for public services such as the NHS. Vote Leave campaigners want to pretend otherwise, but they cannot counter this argument. 

That is why they are betting the house on the age-old strategy of blaming immigrants for everything. Yes, we must control borders, and we do, but recession is no answer to pressures on public services.

As we enter the final five weeks of campaigning it is close, but we in the Remain camp can feel confident. People vote with their pockets and we are winning the arguments over pounds and pence. 

On the other side, Nigel Farage may not have won the official designation, but he is certainly writing the script for the Leave campaign.

 

 

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