The Change in the Couch

by Chuck Willis

Back many moons ago, when I was a young buck in the Navy, the 2-3 days before payday usually found my wife and I running out of milk or bread, or some other commodity, and the bank account was bare. We would be forced to look under the couch cushions to see if there was any wayward change (a quarter then would buy a loaf of bread or quart of milk at the commissary), so that we could continue our lifestyle for a few more days until payday arrived. The couch many times provided that lone quarter or a couple of dimes or nickels to tide us over. But just as many times as we found one last quarter or dime, there were many times that we came up empty handed, and for several days just did without whatever it was we needed, or thought we needed. Needless to say, neither of us died of malnourishment, although we might be mighty uncomfortable for a few days, praying that nothing broke down, we were able to survive until payday.

Now let’s fast forward a few decades. Collectively, we are waiting for payday from the oil companies drilling, hoping to refill our account before we start rummaging in the national couch cushions for the remnants of the energy age. No one likes to face the fact that we are broke individually, and it seems that is the also the national aversion when it comes to energy and all that it supplies.

Over the last several months I have come to feeling like we are at the point of having to rummage in the cushions again, but this time, payday doesn’t look like it will happen again, we will have to live on what we find in the couch cushions for the rest of our time on this planet. This no longer is just uncomfortable, but downright frightening to me. I have looked at the EIA and IEA energy accounts and although they are not barren, they appear to be ready to decline in a matter of months, so that we will be forced to rummage for what energy we need to survive. We finally figured out in the Navy that we had to set aside $5-10 a month in a secure place and not touch it unless it was a critical need that both of us agreed upon. The question I have to ask myself is; what do we have to set aside to help us get through the remainder of our lives? One thing is for sure, it won’t be money, or fancy cars, or 52 inch plasma TVs.

Ever since automobiles have been made, there has been a gas gauge of some sort to alert you to the fact that your tank was getting low. Somewhere during the 1990s, manufacturers realized that we were getting distracted as drivers, and we were missing that the gauge was almost down to E, so they put another warning light in the instrument cluster to start flashing to alert you to the low fuel situation. Looking at the worldwide production figures, one gets the impression that the low fuel light is about to come on throughout the world. Are we as citizens of the world getting so complacent that we will ignore the low fuel light, and keep talking on the cell phones until the engine of society coughs with its first sputter? I hope not, because you can’t set aside what you need if you don’t act during your time of abundance. My dilemma is to try and figure out what I and my wife, my children and grandchildren may need in a future that I have no knowledge of or experience with, that can be preserved to use when times are at a crisis. Simple things we take for granted today, such as starting a fire for heat or cooking, may be a big task 25 years from now.

Back when I started doing contingency work, we used to get training exercises that went something to the effect: you were a traveler stranded in a remote desert from a plane crash, and you could only take 5 items with you as you sought a means to survive. There was a list of 20 items or so that you could pick from, and you had to choose 5. I remember one of the items was an inflatable life raft, a 45 automatic, a shovel, rope, etc. Everybody overlooked the inflatable life raft because the scene was in the desert, but it turned out to be a crucial item, in that it could be used as a sled to drag the other items across the sand, a shelter from the hot sun, etc. The point of this all is, every one of us is responsible for ourselves, not the government, not private enterprise. We need to think ahead, what are the 5 (or 10, or 20) things that will be crucial for us to survive the post oil transition? Every day we fill up the tanks on our cars is payday. What are you setting aside to tide you over?

Chuck Willis is a contingency specialist for major multinational financial corporation with 32 years experience in contingency planning. Prior 10 years experience was in the development of computer systems for IBM and the financial industry.