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Will Kim's death liberate North Korea?

By Michael Burleigh for the Daily Mail
Updated: 14:35 EST, 20 December 2011

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Kim Jong Il apparently died of heart failure on a train

The makers of Hennessy Paradis cognac will be in mourning today since the deceased Kim Jong Il was the world's largest purchaser of this premium product.

He apparently died of heart failure on a train, while inspecting military installations. An emergency medivac helicopter crashed en route to assist him. He traveled everywhere by armoured train - he had a fear of flying - scoffing prodigious quantities of lobster and the like delivered at all points on the route. Some banquets went on for four days at a stretch as the train trundled to Beijing or Moscow.

The so-called 'Dear Leader' Kim Jong Il succeeded his own father Kim Il Sung, 'the Eternal Leader' in 1994, though technically speaking the dead father is still in power. He had spent decades being groomed for the succession. He had not been reading Marxist tracts on command economies, but books about coups and spies, doubtless key to how to maintain the dynasty's power in the 'Hermit Kingdom'. The key political concept is 'junche' or 'self reliance'. Experts say that there is not a single sign of Kim ever having made life better for North Koreans.

His son Kim Jon Eun only had a crash course in the techniques of rule, once it became clear that his father, who suffered a stroke in 2009, was not long for this world. Although still in his twenties, the son is already a four star army general. Educated in Switzerland, he speaks English and German, with a fat boy's love of baseball.

Successor: Kim Jon Eun is still in his twenties, but is a four star army general

What can we expect now? South Koreans are naturally extremely nervous since, despite there being 26,500 US troops in the country, North Korea has thousands of artillery rockets targeted at Seoul which is only 70 miles from the internal border. North Korea is also nuclear armed, the main reason why everyone treats this nightmare of a state so gingerly. The Japanese government will be monitoring the situation closely.

The big players in the region (China and the US) claim Kim Jung Il's death is an opportunity for North Korea to re-engage with the outside world. Literally so, since North Korea does not have the internet, and mobile phones can only make (northern) domestic calls. It operates a huge number of labour camps too.

Hillary Clinton has quietly improved relations with the generals who rule Myanmar (formerly Burma)

In recent months, Hillary Clinton has quietly improved relations with the generals who rule Myanmar (formerly Burma). This is important because Myanmar is the main conduit through which North Korea has been exporting nuclear technologies to Iran and Syria.

Then there is China. The Chinese government is fed up with the constant influx of refugees from North Korea, who flee there to avoid starving to death. It wants North Korea to liberalise its economy to reduce its economic dependence on Beijing. It also feels embarrassed by such an ally, having cut economic and military aid in the wake of last year's naval clashes with Seoul over islands straddling the offshore border. It is interesting that in China, ordinary people posting on the Internet about Kim's death, are using thumbs up or smiley faced 'emoticons' today.

Kim Jong Eun will have his work cut out imposing his dominance on each centre of power, notably the armed forces, where real generals may resent being bossed around by this callow creature of nepotism. This means that North Korea may well turn inwards for a few years, always with the possibility that it might lash out externally, so as to bring regime and people closer together.

Mourning: Crowds weep as they are told that their leader Kim Jong Il has died

This will be hard going since North Koreans only heard Mr Kim senior's voice live once in the two decades he reigned. In 1992 they heard him say 'Glory to the people's heroic military'. Somehow one feels it will be more of the same from the son.

Read Michael Burleigh's RightMinds blog here