Knife-edge: Clinton's lead is wafer-thin with just a day to go as a series of polls give her a margin of no more than four points 

  • Clinton takes the lead in both the CBS News and ABC News/Washington Post polls, where she is ahead in both by 47 points to Trump's 43
  • Bloomberg also gave the Democrat a three-point lead 
  • But Monmouth University and NBC News/Survey Monkey showed the Democrat with a six-point advantage
  • The day before the election, other surveys lean towards a Republican victory: the LA Times and IBD/TIPP tracking polls put Trump ahead
  • Clinton was given an eleventh-hour reprieve on Sunday when the FBI said it had not found any incriminating evidence in the Weiner email trove
  • The polls were largely conducted before the announcement
  • In battleground surveys, Clinton edges ahead in Florida, Nevada and North Carolina. She has a six-point lead in Virginia while Trump has seven in Ohio
  • Emerson College said Clinton could win 323 electoral college votes to Trump's 215, far and beyond the 270 votes required for the White House

The day before the election and the presidential race put both candidates on a knife edge.

Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in most four-way polls by three or four points, according to data published Monday. 

That includes the CBS News and the ABC News/Washington Post polls, where she was ahead in both by 47 points to Trump's 43.

That's outside the margin of error for both surveys. 

Fox News said the Democrat was four points ahead of her Republican rival, at 48 points to 44.

The latest CNN poll of polls on Monday also gave Clinton a four-point lead over Trump and predicted she'd get 46 per cent of the vote, compared to his predicted 42 per cent. 

The CNN Poll of Polls, which doesn't have a margin of error, is an average of the seven most recent nationwide telephone polls.

Bloomberg poll had Clinton three points ahead, at 46 to 43 - within its error margin, as was her two-point lead in aRasmussen survey.   

But two other polls published later on Monday showed Clinton with a more comfortable six-point lead: 50 per cent to 44 in a Monmouth University survey, and 47 to 41 from NBC News/Survey Monkey.  

Scroll down for video 

Both the CBS and Bloomberg polls published Monday placed Clinton in the lead by a small margin

The ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Clinton with a four-point lead the day before America casts its ballots

Donald Trump checks his watch at a 'Midnight rally' in Leesburg, Virginia in the early hours of Monday morning. He trails Clinton by three or four points in most polls

Hillary Clinton, pictured Sunday, leads Trump in both the CBS News and the ABC News/Washington Post polls, where she is ahead in both by 47 points to Trump's 43

Other surveys, however, lean towards a Republican victory. 

The LA Times tracking poll, which has tended to show Trump at an advantage when other polls gave Clinton the lead, presently has the billionaire at 48 points to the Democrat's 43. The IBD/TIPP four-way tracking survey similarly shows Trump ahead, at 43 points to Clinton's 41.  

Clinton was given an eleventh-hour reprieve on Sunday when the FBI said it had not found any evidence to change its July verdict of no charges for her use of a private email server while secretary of state. The polls were largely completed before the announcement. 

The LA Times tracking poll, which has tended to show Trump at an advantage when other polls gave Clinton the lead, presently has the billionaire at 48 points to the Democrat's 43.

The agency was forced into conducting a lightning speed investigation after it caused an uproar with its declaration that it had found emails on devices belonging to Anthony Weiner, estranged husband of Clinton aide Huma Abedin. Agents only examined messages sent to and from Clinton, from a reported trove of some 650,000.

Although Clinton has now been let off the hook again, she still lost valuable momentum over the course of the nine days between FBI director James Comey's initial letter to Congress and the Sunday announcement. 

Most polls showed her support dipping during that time, and Democrat hopes of using their candidate's formerly strong position to make a push for seats in the Senate were largely dashed as the campaign scrambled to shore up core support.

The IBD/TIPP four-way tracking survey shows Trump ahead


The candidates and their prominent supporters are criss-crossing states in the last hours of the race. Here is where they will be:


11am: Sarasota Fairgrounds, Sarasota, Florida

3pm: J.S. Dorton Arena, Raleigh, North Carolina

5.30pm: Lackawanna College Student Union, Scranton, Pennsylvania

8pm: Manchester, New Hampshire, with Mike Pence

11pm: Devos Place, Grand Rapids, Michigan, with Mike Pence Pence


9:30 am: Duluth, Minnesota

Traverse City, Michigan

Erie, Pennsylvania


Noon: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

4 pm: Grand Valley State University Fieldhouse, Grand Rapids, Michigan

7.30 pm: Rally with President Obama, Michelle Obama, Bill and Chlesea Clinton, Jon Bon Jovi and Bruce Springsteen. Independence Hall, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Midnight: Reynolds Coliseum, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina


Charlotte, North Carolina

Wilmington, North Carolina

Fairfax, Virginia

Richmond Airport, Richmond, Virginia


Ray L. Fisher Stadium, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan

Whittemore Center Arena, Durham, New Hampshire

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, with Clinton


Tallahassee, Florida

St. Petersburg, Florida

Fairfax, Virginia

Wilmington, Delaware


Greensboro, North Carolina

Philadelphia rally with his wife 

Clinton has on average led her rival in the polls, but the campaign has been a rollercoaster. Clinton has been poleaxed by the FBI's bombshell and also suffered from the steady drip of emails released by WikiLeaks, while Trump was badly damaged after a 2005 video leaked of him talking about grabbing women 'by the p***y'.

Still, the Democrat will go into Election Day with a 2.2 point lead over her rival, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average of the four main candidates, at 44.5 to Trump's 42.3. Libertarian Gary Johnson has 4.8 points and Green Jill Stein gets 1.8. 

Both of the two major party candidates are seen unfavorably by a majority of voters. Clinton is disliked by 55.3 per cent, while Trump has a slightly worse showing of 57.8 per cent. Both of those ratings exceed by several points the peak unfavorability figures of either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney in the 2012 electoral race.

With more than 41 million people having already voted, according to Washington Post figures Sunday morning, just five per cent of likely voters say they would change their minds at this late stage, the CBS poll showed.

Although surveys of the popular vote suggest a close race, analysts believe the electoral college voting map could bring a landslide for Clinton. Emerson College forecast Monday that Clinton could win 323 votes to Trump's 215 - far and beyond the 270 votes required to claim the White House. predicts that the Democrat can count on 252 votes to Trump's 163, with 123 votes to play for in the battleground states. 

In battleground polls published Monday, Quinnipiac is showing a statistically insignificant one-point lead for Clinton in Florida, a must-win Republican state. 

In North Carolina, Clinton is polling at 47 per cent against 45 for Trump, the organization said.

In Virginia, Clinton is leading 48 to 42, says Christopher Newport University, and she also has the thinnest of edges in Nevada, at 47 to 46, according to Emerson.  

But Trump is doing much better in Ohio: He has a seven-point lead over Clinton, 46-39, Emerson figures showed.

Despite Trump's refusal to say whether he will accept the legitimacy of a Democrat victory, most likely voters - 79 per cent - say they will accept it, including 87 per cent of Clinton supporters and 68 per cent of Trump's, according to the ABC/Washington Post surveys. 

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight forecasts a 66 per cent likelihood that Clinton will take the White House.  

Both candidates have been in a last-ditch attempt to eke out every vote they can in the final  hours of the campaign, with both holding midnight rallies. Clinton will take the stage in Raleigh, North Carolina at 12 a.m. on Election Day, while Trump will be in Grand Rapids, Michigan from 11 p.m. Monday evening. 

Trump (pictured in Leesburg, Virginia in the early hours of Monday morning) will be in Grand Rapids, Michigan from 11 p.m. Monday evening 


The electoral college is made up of 538 voters - 435 Representatives and 100 Senators, plus three electors for the District of Colombia.

A candidate needs to win a majority of 270 electoral college votes to become President.  

This voters' college make their pick based on which candidate receives a majority of votes in their corresponding states. That candidate receives all that state's electoral college votes.

An exception is made in Nebraska and Maine, where votes are assigned by proportional representation - meaning either candidate could receive votes from different congressional districts.

It is possible to win the electoral college vote and lose the popular vote - as with George W Bush in 2000. He eventually won the presidency over Al Gore following a Supreme Court ruling which had the ultimate effect of awarding Florida's votes to Bush. 

The creators of the Constitution set up the system as a limit on direct democracy - or in Alexander Hamilton's words, as a way of preserving 'the sense of the people' - in other words to avoid a malicious majority forming. It also tries to ensure the rights of smaller states.

The electors cast their votes on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December and are counted in Congress on January 6. 

The new President is then sworn in on January 20.  


The comments below have not been moderated.

The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline.

By posting your comment you agree to our house rules.

Who is this week's top commenter? Find out now