PETER OBORNE: There’s only one real winner of these elections... and he has been released to create maximum havoc

Brexit buccaneer: Boris Johnson could soon be PM

Brexit buccaneer: Boris Johnson could soon be PM

Boris Johnson has sped out of City Hall on his bicycle for the last time as London Mayor — but he is now heading like a human missile straight towards Downing Street.

Yesterday’s election results have a muddled look, but one thing is clear. The winner is not David Cameron or Nigel Farage — and certainly not Jeremy Corbyn. The winner has a mop of blond hair, supports Brexit, and has long believed he is Britain’s Prime Minister in waiting.

For the past eight years, Boris Johnson has been prevented by the heavy demands of the London mayoralty from launching his challenge for the Tory leadership. Now, he has been released to create maximum havoc — and at a perfect moment.

According to one plausible scenario, Mr Johnson can be in Downing Street as soon as July. For this to happen, Britain must vote to leave the European Union in the referendum on June 23.

In that event (contrary to conventional wisdom at Westminster), David Cameron will have no choice but to resign. This is because his position — in terms of his job being reliant on winning the vote — cannot be compared with Harold Wilson’s, who was the prime minister the last time a referendum was held back in 1975.

In the run-up to that poll, Wilson did not play an active part in the campaigning. David Cameron, by contrast, has placed British membership of the European Union at the heart of his government’s policy, and he has thrown the entire Conservative Party machine behind the EU membership.

This partisanship means that defeat in the national vote on June 23 would come as a humiliation for the Prime Minister. He could not conceivably remain in office in the wake of such a rebuff from the British people to the central policy of his government. Boris Johnson would be odds-on favourite to be installed within weeks.

It is, of course, rather more likely that Britain will vote to stay in the EU. Even so, Mr Johnson would still have excellent prospects of becoming Prime Minister in this parliament.

That is because of the calamitous mistake, made by David Cameron when — in an unprompted act of stupidity — he announced his intention to step down as premier before the 2020 election.

This means that, following referendum day, Mr Cameron will quickly turn into a lame duck Prime Minister. Though there are other able candidates, including Theresa May and George Osborne, Mr Johnson is in an exceptionally strong position to win.

Crucially, Mr Johnson’s eight years as Mayor of London have given him huge credibility when it comes to making a claim for the highest office in the land.

I have often complained about the BBC, and there is a great deal to complain about. Nevertheless, the broadcaster is an ornament in British public life, it is respected throughout the world, and its independence is precious.

I can think of nothing worse than allowing any politician of any party to give the BBC orders, which is exactly what is threatened by the Government’s gimmicky proposals on the scheduling of popular programmes.

From there, it would be a short step to ministers dictating content, and from there it would be an even shorter step to the drab propaganda-filled State television services of dozens of third-rate dictatorships.

Later this month — after taking advice from a former investment banker named David Clementi — the Government will propose drastic restrictions on the independence of the BBC through the appointment of key non-executive directors. These proposals must be rejected at all costs if the BBC is to remain a beacon for the world.

I reckon that at least seven current heads of state — including Francois Hollande in France and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey — are former mayors of major cities.

President Chirac of France was mayor of Paris and Yeltsin (another Boris) mayor of Moscow. London is one of the greatest cities in the world, and provides Mr Johnson with a massive platform.

More important still, yesterday’s electoral calamity for the Conservatives in London shows that Boris Johnson is the only current Tory with the charisma to capture independent-minded voters.

London is naturally a Labour city, and two Tory candidates — Steve Norris 12 years ago and now woeful Zac Goldsmith — have tried and failed to become mayor. Only Johnson has succeeded, and succeeded twice. He also has the magnetism to appeal to the great northern cities, where the Tories are still unable to break through.

It is true that Boris is disliked by many Tories. Many of these tend to be the acolytes of his rival, Chancellor George Osborne.

Mr Osborne has been careful to use his position at the Treasury to build up a network of ministerial supporters dependent on his favours. They will do everything they can to block Boris, But I believe that in the end his proven ability to attract voters to the Conservative cause will prove decisive over the Osborne machine.

Of course he has his flaws, as do all politicians. His private life has occasionally been rackety, and he has not always shone in the Commons.

Mr Johnson is far more in tune with the popular mood than Westminster insiders like George Osborne and David Cameron

Mr Johnson is far more in tune with the popular mood than Westminster insiders like George Osborne and David Cameron

Yet he is already loved by the Conservative grassroots, and for good reasons. He is far more in tune with the popular mood than Westminster insiders like David Cameron and George Osborne.

He proved this last month when, in an article for the Sun, he challenged President Obama’s intervention in British politics on the side of the Remain campaign.

Mr Johnson was condemned by metropolitan political commentators, one or two of whom went to the lengths of announcing that his career was over. Subsequent polls have shown he was right and Westminster opinion was wrong: most voters share his opinion that it was none of the President’s business.

Mr Johnson now has free time on his hands. Since his return to the Commons as an MP last year, he has been frequently criticised for failing to make an impact. Only rarely have his critics pointed out that he was unable to prove himself in the Commons because of his arduous competing duties as London Mayor.

From next week, he will be able to show his mettle as a future Prime Minister and gather supporters on the back-benches.

The stakes are very high. With Labour in collapse, the successor to David Cameron can grab a very great prize. Not only does the Tory election victory in 2020 look like a near certainty at this stage, but 2025 looks a probable Conservative victory as well.

Whoever succeeds David Cameron can look forward to the likelihood of enjoying an uninterrupted 12 years as British Prime Minister. It is a glittering prospect, and free from the burdens of being Mayor, Boris Johnson now has a favourite’s chance of attaining it.

 

Why I’d vote for ballots at the weekend 

This week’s election was held, as it is conventional, on a Thursday. As will be the referendum next month.

For millions of schoolchildren this is an apparent blessing, because so many of our schools are used as polling centres and closed for business for the day.

Isn’t it time that we developed a more practical alternative?

I believe there is no good reason why general elections should not be held over the weekend, when they would cause far less disruption to ordinary life and make it far easier for voters to get to the polling centres.

Since the advent of fixed-term parliaments, all elections in the UK fall during school term time. They force thousands of parents to find an extra day’s childcare. This is an unfair and unnecessary cost of British democracy. It is not even as if the tradition of Thursday elections goes back very far. They were brought in during the Thirties.

Thursdays were chosen because Fridays were then regarded as quiet trading days in the City, so the risk of market disruption in the event of a surprise result was less.

Such considerations no longer apply. Next time, let’s vote for common sense.

 

George ducks the flak

It's six weeks since George Osborne attempted to gain extra glory by using his annual budget statement to announce that all schools should be made into academies. 

Now the policy is in disarray and it is Nicky Morgan, the Education Secretary, who gets the blame. 

This is the new version of collective Cabinet responsibility. The Chancellor gets the applause for a big announcement. Another minister faces the flak when it goes wrong.

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