Fancy SQUID and chips? UK's warming waters could change our favourite fish dishes for good
- Cold-water species are being driven out of British waters by climate change
- Species like cod are being replaced by warm-water species such as squid
- The change will likely hike the price of some of Britain's favourite fish
- The researchers say that Brits should begin adapting their fish suppers
Britain's fish suppers could be changed for good over the next decade.
A new study reveals that as the UK's waters warm with climate change, cold-water species such as cod are being driven out and replaced by warm-water species such as squid.
The change will likely hike the price of some of Britain's favourite fish as the species become increasingly rare in native waters.
The Suffolk-based Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas) has been monitoring North Sea fish populations for 114 years.
Its data shows that that UK squid numbers have increased dramatically over the past 35 years.
In 1984, Cefas found squid at only 20 per cent of its 76 survey stations in the North Sea, compared with 60 per cent in 2014.
'UK consumers enjoy eating quite a limited range of seafood, but in the long term we will need to adapt our diets,' said lead researcher Dr John Pinnegar.
'In 2025 and beyond, we may need to replace cod and other old favourites with warm-water species such as squid, mackerel, sardine and red mullet.'
With squid populations rocketing, cod numbers tell a different story.
The fish have been slow to recover from decades of over-fishing.
From a total biomass of 1.3 million tonnes in 1971, cod numbers fell to their lowest recorded level of 124,000 tonnes in 2004.
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Following strengthened fishing management last year, cod numbers have begun to resettle, with biomass increasing to 295,000 tonnes last year.
Although this level is sustainable, scientists believe the slow recovery is because recent temperature hikes in North Sea waters have hit cod reproduction.
'Our models for 2025 and beyond suggest that seawater temperature may continue to rise in the future,' said Dr Pinnegar.
As a result, UK waters will become more hospitable for some species and less suitable for others, with the overall result that most commercial species will move northwards,' he says.
Cefa's data has important implications for UK fish lovers and fisheries alike.
Warming temperatures present both threats and opportunities to the fishing industry.
For example, summer squid fisheries have expanded rapidly around the North Sea, as efforts to reduce over-fishing have prevented vessels from pursuing more traditional species such as haddock and cod.
'I would anticipate that currently small-scale fisheries targeting warm-water species such as squid, sardine and anchovy will continue to expand,' says Dr Pinnegar.
'They will probably represent a greater share of UK fisheries catches in 10 years' time,' he concludes.
Using detailed records of where fish are caught and of water temperature, Cefa was able to detect long-term changes in abundance and relate them to climate change and fishing intensity.
Their readings allowed them to predict what the North Sea might look like in future.
Dr Pinnegar's results will be presented today at the annual British Ecological Society meeting in Liverpool.
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