Morning Tax

Politico

Morning Tax

An early filing of the day's tax news

Awaiting phenomenal

With help from Nick Juliano

THAT ESCALATED QUICKLY: President Donald Trump and top aides now say he’ll release something on taxes in the next few weeks — quicker, it’s fair to say, than a lot of people watching the issue expected.

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But that doesn’t mean it’s exactly clear what will come down the pike, as our Toby Eckert reports. How fleshed out will the plan be? Will it be packaged within his first budget, which a lot of Democrats aren’t exactly sure when to expect?

Trump would only say, “We’re way ahead of schedule, I believe, and we’re going to be announcing something, I would say, over the next two or three weeks that will be phenomenal in terms of tax.” White House press secretary Sean Spicer said he didn’t want to get out ahead of the boss, but added: “It is going to be the first time that this nation’s seen a full, comprehensive tax reform in a long, long time.”

What’s more clear is that the Hill doesn’t have much insight on what to expect either. As Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch put it to reporters on Thursday: “I’ve heard a little bit, and we’ve got a lot more to learn. But he's paying strict attention to what we’re doing too, and he's made that very clear to me. So we’ll see. I wish I had more to tell you at this time, but it’s all kind of up in the air. We’ll just have to see what happens.”

It should also be pointed out, as The Wall Street Journal noted, that Trump linked his tax proposal with “developing our aviation infrastructure.” House Republicans especially have been queasy about the idea of using any of the revenue raised through tax reform for further infrastructure spending, as House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady said Thursday.

CONGRATS. The end of the week is here. It’s also 75 years since the first gold record was awarded, to Glenn Miller for what we can only assume is the aptly titled “Chattanooga Choo Choo.”

We’re here for your tips and scoops. Email: bbecker@politico.com, teckert@politico.com, bfaler@politico.com, cwilhelm@politico.com. Twitter: @berniebecker3, @tobyeckert, @brian_faler, @colinwilhelm, @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Tax.

HIGH-LEVEL WHACK-A-MOLE: You’ve undoubtedly heard it — a border adjustment framework would end inversions as we know it, with the IRS having to worry only about where a company sells its goods. But as our Brian Faler reports, the House GOP plan could just end up opening new avenues for gaming, like trying to label every good you can a tax-free export and doing whatever possible to avoid tagging something an import. There’s also the question of whether the plan would just make the U.S. a tax haven — after all, why wouldn’t foreign companies just invert here if that’s a cheaper way to reach American markets? Even so, Marty Sullivan of Tax Analysts said there’s little doubt the House blueprint would be an improvement from the current set-up. “I do not doubt that lawyers will figure out ways to game this system. But the basic, fundamental structure of it seems much more resilient to gaming — by far.”

ABOUT THAT SENATE: GOP senators certainly haven’t been shy in talking about their skepticism of border adjustability, but you could argue that Georgia Sen. David Perdue — a former top retail executive, it should be noted — took it up a notch by releasing a letter calling the House plan a “bad idea.” Perdue argued that the plan would lead to increased prices for customers that would “hammer consumer confidence and lower overall demand, thus putting downward pressure on jobs.” And even if the dollar appreciates just as much as economists expect, Perdue added that he worries that would hurt retirement plans, Brian notes.

South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds, who ticked off some concerns to Morning Tax last week, revved it up a bit in an interview with CNBC, also via Brian. “Any time we start talking about how we’re going to regulate products going out and products coming in, we better darn well know what the impact on the economy is before we start making major changes,” Rounds said.

Perdue’s letter certainly got the attention of the American Made Coalition, the pro-border adjustability group. “At the end of the day, when the rhetoric is put aside and the facts are examined clearly, we’ll see that the effort underway by Chairman Brady lays out a path toward a simpler tax code that includes lower rates for everyone and the elimination of countless loopholes,” said John Gentzel, a spokesman for the group.

SERIOUSLY, HFC? The House Freedom Caucus could play a pretty key role in whether border adjustability lives or dies. And while you could argue that these two comments from its chairman, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), aren’t necessarily contradictory, they do point to the tough path ahead. To National Journal: “If lower­ing taxes is good for the Amer­ic­an pub­lic, let’s lower taxes,” Meadows said. “You leave the bor­der ad­just­ment tax as an­oth­er is­sue to per­haps ad­dress on an­oth­er day.” And he said to Bloomberg, about Brady’s pitch on tax reform to the HFC: “He made a very compelling case that if we don’t do the border adjustment tax, meaningful tax reform as we know it will not happen.”

DID WE FIND A NEUTRAL? There are a lot of business leaders either loudly plugging or trashing the border adjustment framework, but Coca-Cola’s chief executive is basically shrugging his shoulders at the idea. Muhtar Kent said that’s because Coke, now producing in more than 200 countries, largely makes and sells in the same markets, USA Today reports. But Kent is worried about all the heated talk surrounding the global tax and trade space. “On a macro sense this kind of rhetoric is also somewhat worrying because it will have a negative impact on global trade,” Kent said. “That will also play into further sentiment that is not positive, and that will then play into the GDP growth rate and disposable income growth rates.”

HATCH ON THE CARBON TAX: The Finance chairman didn’t sound particularly interested in a carbon tax, as proposed by a set of GOP graybeards this week, but he didn’t totally rule it out either. “I look at every idea. We look at them very carefully, and under certain circumstances … people could look favorably on it. I don't know,” Hatch told reporters in the Capitol on Thursday.

YOU’RE … DEMOTED! Trump has decided to downgrade the White House Council of Economic Advisers and kick its chairman out of the Cabinet, The Wall Street Journal’s Josh Zumbrun reports. A who’s who of academic economists have worked on the CEA, from Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen to its most recent chairman, Jason Furman. But Trump’s never been big on economists, and this move is seen as likely to increase the stature of the head of his National Economic Council — Gary Cohn, formerly of Goldman Sachs. (Recall also that CNBC’s Larry Kudlow was once talked up as a possible CEA chairman.)

Furman tweeted: “CEA delisted from Cabinet: the rank is not necessary nor sufficient for influence. But is a bad signal about POTUS's regard for substance.”

INTERNATIONAL NEWS —

GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS: The good news — Italy’s tax collector raked in around $20 billion last year (about 19 billion euros) from turning up the heat on tax avoidance, Bloomberg reports. The bad news — they’ve still got a lot of work to do, with Italy’s underground economy last estimated to be around 194 billion euros. “Policemen discovered almost 1.7 kilograms (3.7 pounds) in gold coins — worth about 53,000 euros — this week during a random search on a train from Switzerland,” Lorenzo Totaro wrote. “The 57-year-old Italian passenger, a researcher who had tried to hide the coins in a bag, was held by police and will have to pay custom duties and a penalty.”

STATE UPDATE —

ALASKA TO GET TOUGH? House Democrats up in the Last Frontier are pushing proposals that would force the oil industry to shoulder more of the load when it comes to closing Alaska’s budget gap, Nathaniel Herz of Alaska Dispatch News reports. The oil sector already provides most of Alaska’s unrestricted revenues, and saw tax incentives in the state reduced just last year. But Democrats and more centrist Republicans believe the industry can contribute more, including through raising Alaska’s minimum tax on oil companies and paring back a preference that allows businesses to shift operating losses into a tax deduction. But the pain also might get spread around: Lawmakers are expected to roll out another measure today that includes an income tax.

QUICK LINKS

— Wall Street liked what they heard from Trump on taxes.

— The Government Accountability Office takes a look at the essential questions driving tax reform.

— The Tax Foundation weighs in on Michigan’s use of retroactive application of tax law.

— Tennessee lawmaker proposes “Second Amendment sales tax holiday”; Louisiana and Mississippi already offered one.

— Alan Simpson graciously passes on title of “Tallest Senator Ever.”