And my Oscars go to... From La La Land to Lion, our critic picks his likely winners and unlucky losers for Sunday night and the list might surprise you

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On Sunday, for the 89th time since 1929, when the first Academy Awards were dished out in only 15 minutes (which doesn’t sound much longer than the average acceptance speech these days), Hollywood will honour its own in what, of course, has become a veritable orgy of preening, sequined self-importance.

The first Oscars were presented in front of an audience of 270 industry insiders. Now the awards are watched by a worldwide audience of 70 million in more than 200 countries.

The Oscars matter because they’ve been with us since the silent-movie era, because they still carry clout at the global box office, and because they can send individual careers into orbit.

I expect La La Land (with a whopping 14 nominations, more than any film since 1997’s Titanic) to be crowned, as it was at the Baftas and Golden Globes

What they don’t always do well is get it right. The list of directors who never carried off a statuette includes Alfred Hitchcock, Orson Welles, Howard Hawks, Stanley Kubrick and Robert Altman, who by any other measure are five of the finest filmmakers of all time. Injustices have always abounded on Oscars night.

So how many surprises — shocks, even — are in store for us on Sunday? Here are my tips on the likely winners, plus my preferences, some further reflections on those who have been outrageously overlooked, on the Brits to watch out for and, by way of comparison, on how they did things 50 years ago.

THE HOTLY TIPPED FAVOURITES. . .

Our own Baftas don’t always presage success at the Oscars. Last year, Leonardo DiCaprio’s The Revenant was anointed best film on this side of the Atlantic, whereas the Oscar went (more deservingly) to Spotlight, the true story of how the Boston Globe uncovered the child abuse scandal in the Catholic church.

But this time I expect La La Land (with a whopping 14 nominations, more than any film since 1997’s Titanic) to be crowned, as it was at the Baftas and Golden Globes. I have a sneaky feeling the best actor prize might go to Denzel Washington, for Fences, about a working-class African-American struggling to raise his family in the Fifties.

He’s not the favourite — Casey Affleck is, and rightly so, for his heartrending performance in Manchester By The Sea and its plot about a man who raises his nephew after his father dies — but America loves doughty old Denzel and last year’s ‘Oscars so white’ furore could swing it his way.

For the same reason, Moonlight, which has an all-black cast and chronicles the life of a young black man as he tries to find his place in the world, might just possibly spring a shock as best picture.

Casey Affleck (rigth) in Manchester By The Sea about about a man who raises his nephew after his father dies, deserves to win, but looks likely to be pipped at the post

Mahershala Ali from Moonlight, which has an all-black cast and chronicles the life of a young black man as he tries to find his place in the world, looks certain to win best supporting actor

There will be ripples of consternation if Emma Stone doesn’t win best actress for La La Land; she sings, she dances, she makes us laugh and cry. . . what’s not to adore?

Natalie Portman did fine work as the widowed First Lady in the over-praised Jackie.

But if anyone rains on Stone’s parade, it’s more likely to be Isabelle Huppert, who plays a feisty rape victim in the French-language film Elle. In the year of Trump it wouldn’t be a bombshell if all those Beverly Hills liberals decide to embrace a foreigner. For best supporting actor, Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) looks a cert, as does Viola Davis (Fences) as best supporting actress. Just as she did at the Baftas, I expect her to beat both Michelle Williams (amazing in Manchester By The Sea) and Naomie Harris (in Moonlight).

I didn’t love Fences or Moonlight, but I can’t deny they yielded some classy performances. As a wronged wife, Davis gave us copious tears and a commensurate amount of snot — a winning combination when it comes to acting prizes.

Finally, 32-year-old Damien Chazelle (La La Land) is odds-on favourite to win best director. He almost certainly will.

. . . AND WHO REALLY DESERVES TO WIN

Does La La Land deserve to win? It’s hard to think of recent movies that have divided audiences more than Chazelle’s tribute to the Hollywood musical. I’ve heard as many people calling it hysterically overrated as I’ve heard rousing hosannas. My verdict was four stars . . . it’s lovely, but it’s not great.

That said, I’m not sure there are any truly great films in contention for best picture.

But I admired Manchester By The Sea, Lion (about an Indian man who was adopted in Australia — returning to Calcutta to find his birth family 25 years later) and Hell Or High Water (about a divorced father and his ex-convict brother and their scheme to save the family’s ranch in West Texas), more than either the bookies’ favourite, La La Land, or the second favourite, Moonlight. 

There is no doubt in my mind that Casey Affleck, riveting in Manchester By The Sea as a man traumatised by a family tragedy, most deserves the best actor statuette. If his downbeat yet moving performance is pipped by Denzel Washington’s showy soliloquising in Fences, it will count as a rank injustice.

I can see wins for Fences' Denzel Washington and Viola Davis 

Ireland’s Ruth Negga won’t win, but of the five nominees, nobody gave a more tender performance than she did in Loving, about an interracial marriage in Fifties Virginia

And best actress? Ireland’s Ruth Negga won’t win, but of the five nominees, nobody gave a more tender performance than she did in Loving, about an interracial marriage in Fifties Virginia.

I’d love Jeff Bridges (Hell Or High Water) to add a best supporting actor gong to his 2010 Oscar for Crazy Heart; his grizzled Texas ranger in pursuit of two bank-robbing brothers was one of my favourite performances of the year. Nor will Nicole Kidman win best supporting actress for Lion. If I had a vote, she, ahead of Williams, would get mine. It’s not easy playing a secular saint, but as the adoptive Australian mother of a little Indian orphanage boy, she did it exquisitely.

And best director? Chazelle, a proper wunderkind, would be a deserving recipient. But I’d prefer it to go to Kenneth Lonergan, working with much quieter, darker, trickier material in Manchester By The Sea.

THE BRITISH AREN’T COMING

Andrew Garfield was very good in Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, and deserves his best actor nomination, but he might as well start practising his ‘gracious loser’ face now

Without looking down to the less exalted categories, it’s hard to find a likely British winner. Andrew Garfield was very good in Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, and deserves his best actor nomination, but he might as well start practising his ‘gracious loser’ face now.

Dev Patel (Lion) has a better chance as best supporting actor, but it would still count as a major upset, as it would if Naomie Harris were to pip Viola Davis as best supporting actress.

Still, at least they get to walk the red carpet. Hugh Grant must have thought he was in with a terrific shout for his career-best performance in Florence Foster Jenkins, but the floppy-haired one didn’t even make the shortlist.

Nor will Nicole Kidman win best supporting actress for Lion. If I had a vote, she, ahead of Williams, would get mine

Nor did Aaron Taylor-Johnson for his supporting role as a redneck thug in Nocturnal Animals, despite taking home a Golden Globe. By a curious anomaly, Nocturnal Animals does have a best supporting actor contender, but it is Michael Shannon, brilliant as a sheriff dying of cancer, rather than Taylor-Johnson.

So this won’t be one of those years when the Union Jack flies over the Oscars, but there might be some joy in the lesser categories. Sting gets his fourth Oscar nomination for best original song, for his contribution to a documentary about James Foley, the U.S. journalist executed by Isis.

And singer-composer Mica Levi would be a deserving winner of best original score for her work on Jackie.

Joe Walker (Arrival) and Jake Roberts (Hell Or High Water), are competing for best film editing, and Joanna Johnston has a chance of best costume design for the Brad Pitt movie Allied. It wasn’t much of a film, but the clothes were sumptuous.

. . . BACK WHEN WE DID STEAL THE SHOW

British fingerprints were all over the Oscars half a century ago. At the 1967 ceremony, Brits dominated the Best Actor category, which pitted Paul Scofield as a saint (A Man For All Seasons), against Richard Burton as a drunk (Who’s Afraid Of Virginia Woolf?) and Michael Caine as an incorrigible womaniser (Alfie).

Scofield triumphed. He wasn’t there in person, but sent a decidedly understated message that the audience probably considered adorably British. ‘No doubt my wife and I will find time to share a bottle of champagne with someone,’ he said.

In the best actress category, Lynn and Vanessa Redgrave were both nominated, making them the only sisters to share the honour since British siblings, Olivia de Havilland and Joan Fontaine, 25 years earlier.

The Academy invited de Havilland and Fontaine to dish out awards, hoping they might set aside their loathing. But as soon as Olivia accepted the invitation, Joan refused.

There’s nothing Sunday’s ceremony can do to match the moment 50 years ago when Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers walked out to present an award and broke into a dance. Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling don’t evoke even an ageing Fred and Ginger.

Mind you, not everything has changed for the worse. No male presenter these days could get away with not just ogling his co-presenter’s cleavage, but owning up to it. When Dean Jones walked out with Raquel Welch, he turned to her and said: ‘You open the envelope, my eyes are busy.’ Naturally, it brought the house down.