Kim goes ballistic: North Korean dictator threatens 'nuclear justice' as he shows off new missiles and submarine arsenal at Day of the Sun parade led by tens of thousands of goose-stepping, fanatically-chanting troops

  • Kim saluted thousands of soldiers at Kim Il-sung Square during the Day of the Sun celebrations
  • A top official vowed at the parade to 'beat down enemies with the power of nuclear justice' 
  • US officials feared Kim Jong-un would mark the national holiday by launching sixth nuclear weapons test
  • A worrying number of weapons were on display, including prototypes of intercontinental ballistic missiles
  • Large crowds cheered as sword-wielding soldiers marched in a perfectly choreographed display  
  • The country's goal is to put a nuclear warhead on an ICBM capable of reaching the continental United States
  • Submarine-launched ballistic missiles were also on show for the first time, indicating advancing technology 
  • The regime has accused Trump of provoking armed conflict and issued multiple warnings of retaliation

North Korea leader Kim Jong-un gleefully applauded as he watched a display of the country's military might as the secretive state marked its Day of the Sun celebrations with a huge military parade amid increasingly aggressive threats of nuclear war.

Kim, wearing a Western-style suit at Kim Il-sung Square, saluted formations of soldiers who yelled out 'long live' to celebrate the 105th anniversary of his grandfather's birth.

The dictator has accused President Donald Trump of provoking his nation towards armed conflict with a series of increasingly aggressive moves, including sending the USS Carl Vinson to the Korean peninsula.

US officials feared Kim Jong-un would mark the national holiday by launching North Korea's sixth nuclear weapons test, since the country has used previous holidays to showcase its military prowess. 

The despot, who did not speak during the annual parade, flaunted prototypes of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) - a worrying sign given the regime's goal to develop nuclear bombs and missiles that will be able to reach mainland America.

Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) were among the sophisticated military hardware on show for the first time, which indicates an improving technological capability that could help it evade an anti-missile system and serve as a backup if its land-based arsenals are destroyed.

One of Kim's top officials, Choe Ryong Hae, today vowed North Korea would 'beat down enemies with the power of nuclear justice'.

He said: 'We will respond to an all-out war with an all-out war and a nuclear war with our style of a nuclear attack.' 

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Smiling dictator: Kim Jung-un was noticeably relaxed and appeared happy as he attended the 'Day of the Sun' military parade in Kim Il Sung square - which celebrates his grandfather - the founder of North Korea

Smiling dictator: Kim Jung-un was noticeably relaxed and appeared happy as he attended the 'Day of the Sun' military parade in Kim Il Sung square - which celebrates his grandfather - the founder of North Korea

Thousands of North Korean troops armed with rifles took part in the show of force, which saw North Korea flaunt sophisticated new military hardware

Thousands of North Korean troops armed with rifles took part in the show of force, which saw North Korea flaunt sophisticated new military hardware

North Koreans carry flags in front of statues of the country's founder Kim Il Sung (left) and late leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang today

North Koreans carry flags in front of statues of the country's founder Kim Il Sung (left) and late leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang today

Men beat drums as they parade through Kim Il Sung Square during military drills to mark the landmark date

Men beat drums as they parade through Kim Il Sung Square during military drills to mark the landmark date

North Korean soldiers march and shout slogans during a military parade at the 'Day of the Sun' to mark the country's founder's birth anniversary

North Korean soldiers march and shout slogans during a military parade at the 'Day of the Sun' to mark the country's founder's birth anniversary

Tanks rolled through the capital city of the secretive state, which was marking the 105th birthday of Kim Jong-un's late grandfather

Tanks rolled through the capital city of the secretive state, which was marking the 105th birthday of Kim Jong-un's late grandfather

North Korean soldiers carry flags as they pass an image of Kim Il Sung as they take part in a parade in capital Pyongyang

North Korean soldiers carry flags as they pass an image of Kim Il Sung as they take part in a parade in capital Pyongyang

Thousands of troops took part in the parade on a day to mark what would have been the 105th birthday of the country's founder, Kim Il Sung

Thousands of troops took part in the parade on a day to mark what would have been the 105th birthday of the country's founder, Kim Il Sung

North Korea has warned that Donald Trump's 'troublemaking' and 'aggressive' tweets have pushed the world to the brink of thermo-nuclear war

North Korea has warned that Donald Trump's 'troublemaking' and 'aggressive' tweets have pushed the world to the brink of thermo-nuclear war

Commandoes wearing camouflage gear were on parade as soldiers yelled out 'long live' to celebrate the 105th anniversary of Kim Jong-un's grandfather's birthday

Commandoes wearing camouflage gear were on parade as soldiers yelled out 'long live' to celebrate the 105th anniversary of Kim Jong-un's grandfather's birthday

A total of 56 missiles of 10 different types were displayed, culminating in enormous rockets on articulated trailers and on 16-wheeler vehicles.

North Korea has promised 'nuclear justice' in response to any atomic attack during Kim's ominous show of strength.

Some detachments carried assault rifles or rocket-propelled grenades, others were equipped with night-vision goggles and daubed in face paint. One troupe was made up of sword-wielding women. 

The nuclear-armed North is under United Nations sanctions over its weapons programmes, and has ambitions to build a rocket capable of delivering a warhead to the US mainland - something Trump has vowed 'won't happen'. 

The display of patriotism came on a day which US experts fear could be used to carry out further missile testing in North Korea

The display of patriotism came on a day which US experts fear could be used to carry out further missile testing in North Korea

Soldiers march through Pyongyang as officials look on at the celebration event, a national holiday in North Korea

Soldiers march through Pyongyang as officials look on at the celebration event, a national holiday in North Korea

COULD THIS NEW MISSILE ONE DAY NUKE THE US? 

North Korea unveiled what appeared to be new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) at its Day of the Sun parade, amid increasing fears its trying to develop a model that could hit the United States.

North Korea showed two new kinds of ICBM enclosed in canister launchers mounted on the back of transporter erector launcher trucks, or TELs. 

The larger missile was similar in appearance to the Chinese DF-41, which can fly 9,000 miles. 

Crowds cheered as a missile was driven past the stand where North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and other high ranking officials looked on

Crowds cheered as a missile was driven past the stand where North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and other high ranking officials looked on

An unidentified rocket is displayed during today's parade, with experts voicing fears that it could have a range of 9,000 miles

An unidentified rocket is displayed during today's parade, with experts voicing fears that it could have a range of 9,000 miles

If the Korean missiles actually work, and have a similar range to the Chinese missile, they could hit the continental US. But it's very unlikely that North Korea has that technology at this stage.

Also on show for the first time was the North's submarine launch ballistic missiles (SLBM). 

Kim Jong Un kicked off the parade commemorating the 105th anniversary of his late grandfather's birthday and rolled out a military arsenal that also included submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), which also made their debut on Saturday.

Arrival: Military vehicles carrying the KN-11 missile - which can be launched from a submarine - and potentially gives the country a limited nuclear second strike capability 

Arrival: Military vehicles carrying the KN-11 missile - which can be launched from a submarine - and potentially gives the country a limited nuclear second strike capability 

The parade was held at a time of heightened tension with the US, 24 hours after China warned war could break out 'at any moment'

The parade was held at a time of heightened tension with the US, 24 hours after China warned war could break out 'at any moment'

Tensions have been mounting in recent weeks, and North Korea has issued several warnings threatening to 'pulverize' US troops and retaliate in response to any military action. 

Kim Dong-yub, a North Korea expert at Seoul's Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said the canisters and trucks suggested that the North was developing technology to 'cold launch' ICBMs, ejecting them from the canisters before they ignite. 

This would allow North Korea to prevent its limited number of ICBM-capable launcher trucks from being damaged during launches and also make the missiles harder to detect after they're fired, he said. Cold launches would also allow the missiles to be fired from silos. Kim said that the North is also likely developing solid-fuel ICBMs, and that some of the rockets paraded inside canisters on Saturday might be prototypes. 

Thousands of soldiers marched during the parade today, on a day of heightened tensions between North Korea and the US 

Thousands of soldiers marched during the parade today, on a day of heightened tensions between North Korea and the US 

Soldiers marched and shouted slogans in a patriotic display to mark the anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth

Soldiers marched and shouted slogans in a patriotic display to mark the anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth

US officials feared Kim Jong-un would mark the national holiday by launching its sixth nuclear weapons test, since the country has used previous holidays to showcase its military prowess

US officials feared Kim Jong-un would mark the national holiday by launching its sixth nuclear weapons test, since the country has used previous holidays to showcase its military prowess

Tensions between the US and North Korea have been mounting in recent weeks, and yesterday Pyongyang issued a series of menacing threats to 'ravage' US troops and 'go to war if they choose'.

China warned the region could go to war 'at any moment'. US President Donald Trump is monitoring the emerging crisis from his Mar-a-Lago resort this weekend without the company of his top advisers. 

North Korean state television showed Kim, wearing a black suit and white shirt, stepping out of a black limousine.

He saluted his honor guard before walking down a red carpet to a podium and clapped with senior government officials to address the massive crowd taking part in the parade. 

Goose-stepping soldiers and marching bands filled the square as tanks, multiple launch rocket systems and other weapons waited to parade.  

Kim, a 30-something leader who took power in late 2011, emphasizes nuclear weapons as the foundation of his national defense strategy.

The country under his watch has been aggressively pursuing a goal of putting a nuclear warhead on an ICBM capable of reaching the continental United States.     

Like a celebrity: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un waves during his military parade on Saturday in Pyongyang

Like a celebrity: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un waves during his military parade on Saturday in Pyongyang

'DAY OF THE SUN': CEREMONY THAT ENFORCES CULT STATUS OF THE KIM PARTY RULING NORTH KOREA 

The 'Day of the Sun' is the most important holiday in the North Korean calendar, and this year marks the 105th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung, the country's late founder and grandfather of current ruler Kim Jong Un.

North Koreans placed flower baskets and bouquets below portraits of founder president Kim Il Sung on Friday. 

A light rain fell in the capital, as people wearing gumboots and holding umbrellas walked past portraits of the late leader and signs proclaiming 'Sun Day is the most significant event in North Korea'.

Smiling North Koreans watch the parade in capital Pyongyang today, on a day which reinforces the cult of personality around the Kim family

Smiling North Koreans watch the parade in capital Pyongyang today, on a day which reinforces the cult of personality around the Kim family

North Korean men waving pom poms at the parade in the nation's capital today, at a celebration to mark the 105th anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth

North Korean men waving pom poms at the parade in the nation's capital today, at a celebration to mark the 105th anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth

A North Korean woman cries as she looks towards her country's leader Kim Jong-un during a military parade today

A North Korean woman cries as she looks towards her country's leader Kim Jong-un during a military parade today

Such pageantry reinforces the cult of personality around the Kim family, three of whom have ruled North Korea with a vice-like grip.

When foreign journalists visit North Korea, their movements are closely managed and they are usually restricted to Pyongyang. Conversations with people are monitored by government 'minders', who also provide translations into English.

Near the birthplace of Kim Il Sung, a pilgrimage spot for North Koreans, commuters yesterday moved briskly on and off the subway, young women holding umbrellas walked by, clasping arms, while two children in blue school uniforms shuffled down the street holding a flower basket almost their own size.

Large groups of women joined in the show of patriotism today in Pyongyang in a display during which the country flaunted its military might

Large groups of women joined in the show of patriotism today in Pyongyang in a display during which the country flaunted its military might

Crowds waved flags and flowers at a parade overseen by despot leader Kim Jong-un in the North Korean capital today

Crowds waved flags and flowers at a parade overseen by despot leader Kim Jong-un in the North Korean capital today

Large crowds waving flags, banners and flowers lined the streets as the parade was held in Pyongyang in front of a gleeful Kim Jong-un this morning

Large crowds waving flags, banners and flowers lined the streets as the parade was held in Pyongyang in front of a gleeful Kim Jong-un this morning

Unlike at some previous parades attended by Kim, there did not appear to be any a senior Chinese official in attendance - which did not appear to bother him one bit

'If the enemies want to wage war with our leaders, we have nothing to fear because we will win,' said Jon Myon Sop, who works at a bus station.

'I know about how tensions are rising on the Korean Peninsula and how the U.S. and its puppet countries have brought their military assets to the region.'

Cho Hyon Ran, a tour guide at the site, said: 'We don't want war but we are not afraid of war because we have strong power, our country is the strongest one in the world now.

'You can see all people are laughing, all people are singing, all people are celebrating the Sun's day,' she said in English. 'We are not afraid of anything.' 

Dancers carried sheets in the colour of North Korea's national flag during the military parade in Pyongyang

Dancers carried sheets in the colour of North Korea's national flag during the military parade in Pyongyang

The colourful parade was held in the North Korean capital to mark the 105th anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth

The colourful parade was held in the North Korean capital to mark the 105th anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth

Tens of thousands of North Koreans lined the streets of Pyongyang to watch the parade and get a sight of despot leader Kim Jong-un

Tens of thousands of North Koreans lined the streets of Pyongyang to watch the parade and get a sight of despot leader Kim Jong-un

North Korea soldiers marched through Pyongyang, 24 hours after China warned the region could go to war 'at any moment'

North Korea soldiers marched through Pyongyang, 24 hours after China warned the region could go to war 'at any moment'

Military vehicles carry missiles with characters reading 'Pukkuksong' during a military parade marking the 105th birth anniversary of country's founding father, Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang

Military vehicles carry missiles with characters reading 'Pukkuksong' during a military parade marking the 105th birth anniversary of country's founding father, Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang

Soldiers shouted patriotic slogans during the parade, which was held in the North Korean capital today

Soldiers shouted patriotic slogans during the parade, which was held in the North Korean capital today

Goose-stepping soldiers and marching bands filled the square as tanks, multiple launch rocket systems and other weapons waited to parade

Goose-stepping soldiers and marching bands filled the square as tanks, multiple launch rocket systems and other weapons waited to parade

Military vehicles carry missiles during a military parade in North Korean capital Pyongyang today

Military vehicles carry missiles during a military parade in North Korean capital Pyongyang today

North Korea's state news agency said the Trump administration's 'serious military hysteria' had reached a 'dangerous phase which can no longer be overlooked'.

The United States has warned that a policy of 'strategic patience' with North Korea is over. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence travels to South Korea on Sunday on a long-planned 10-day trip to Asia. 

China, North Korea's sole major ally and neighbor which nevertheless opposes its weapons program, on Friday again called for talks to defuse the crisis.

'We call on all parties to refrain from provoking and threatening each other, whether in words or actions, and not let the situation get to an irreversible and unmanageable stage,' Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters in Beijing.

North Korea on Friday denounced the United States for bringing 'huge nuclear strategic assets' to the region as the USS Carl Vinson strike group with a flag-ship nuclear-powered aircraft carrier steamed closer, and said it stood ready to strike back.

'The Trump administration, which made a surprise guided cruise-missile strike on Syria on April 6, has entered the path of open threat and blackmail,' KCNA quoted the military as saying in a statement.

'The army and people of the DPRK will as ever courageously counter those who encroach upon the dignity and sovereignty of the DPRK and will always mercilessly ravage all provocative options of the U.S. with Korean-style toughest counteraction.'

North Korean soldiers on mobile missile launchers as they are paraded across Kim Il Sung Square during today's military parade

North Korean soldiers on mobile missile launchers as they are paraded across Kim Il Sung Square during today's military parade

Power play: The festivities, celebrating the 105th birthday of Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong-un's grandfather, took place amid concerns that North Korea is possibly preparing for its sixth nuclear test or a significant rocket launch, such as its first flight test of an ICBM

Power play: The festivities, celebrating the 105th birthday of Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong-un's grandfather, took place amid concerns that North Korea is possibly preparing for its sixth nuclear test or a significant rocket launch, such as its first flight test of an ICBM

China, North Korea's sole major ally and neighbor which nevertheless opposes its weapons program, on Friday again called for talks to defuse the crisis. Pictured, preparations ahead of the parade

China, North Korea's sole major ally and neighbor which nevertheless opposes its weapons program, on Friday again called for talks to defuse the crisis. Pictured, preparations ahead of the parade

Pictured, a North Korean soldier sits on a fence near Sinuiju, opposite the Chinese border city of Dandong. China warned the region could go to war 'at any moment'

Pictured, a North Korean soldier sits on a fence near Sinuiju, opposite the Chinese border city of Dandong. China warned the region could go to war 'at any moment'

North Korea launched a missile test last Tuesday, and satellite images taken earlier this week showed continued activity at the Punggye-ri Nuclear site.

The US deployed USS Carl Vinson to the region in response, and Trump tweeted about the 'menace' of North Korea while military exercises were conducted in South Korea.

The US and North Korea traded increasingly bitter words this week, and another warning of retaliation came on Saturday from the regime's KCNA news agency.

'All the brigandish provocative moves of the U.S. in the political, economic and military fields pursuant to its hostile policy toward the DPRK will thoroughly be foiled through the toughest counteraction of the army and people of the DPRK,' KCNA said, citing a spokesman for the General Staff of the Korean People's Army.

DPRK stands for the official name of North Korea, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

'Our toughest counteraction against the U.S. and its vassal forces will be taken in such a merciless manner as not to allow the aggressors to survive.' 

Lines of uniformed female soldiers joined in the flamboyant display of patriotism in the heart of the North Korean capital

Lines of uniformed female soldiers joined in the flamboyant display of patriotism in the heart of the North Korean capital

Crowds chanted patriotic slogans in honour of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung at an event which marked 105 since he was born

Crowds chanted patriotic slogans in honour of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung at an event which marked 105 since he was born

The secretive state vowed to 'pulverize' US bases and South Korean capital Seoul if it was threatened by the US military

The secretive state vowed to 'pulverize' US bases and South Korean capital Seoul if it was threatened by the US military

The United States has warned that a policy of 'strategic patience' with North Korea is over. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence travels to South Korea on Sunday on a long-planned 10-day trip to Asia

The United States has warned that a policy of 'strategic patience' with North Korea is over. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence travels to South Korea on Sunday on a long-planned 10-day trip to Asia

US TANKS CARRY OUT EXERCISES CLOSE TO NORTH KOREAN BORDER AMID HEIGHTENED TENSIONS

US tanks were today pictured close to the border with North Korea as they continue to carry out military exercises will allies in South Korea.

Pyongyang has repeatedly objected to the US presence on the Korean peninsula, and yesterday vowed to 'pulverize' US bases and South Korean capital Seoul if it was threatened by the US military.

Pictures taken today show US forces taking part in joint exercises in Paju, alongside South Korean troops.

A US Army of solider working on an M1A2 tank during a joint military exercise close to the border with North Korea today, as Pyongyang flaunted its own military might

A US Army of solider working on an M1A2 tank during a joint military exercise close to the border with North Korea today, as Pyongyang flaunted its own military might

South Korean and US Army tanks take positions during a joint military exercise in Paju today

South Korean and US Army tanks take positions during a joint military exercise in Paju today

A statement issued yesterday by the Korean People's Army boasted that US military bases in the South 'as well as the headquarters of evils such as the (South Korean presidential) Blue House would be pulverized within a few minutes'. 

North Korean vice foreign minister Han Song Ryol yesterday blamed Trump and the US for rising tensions.

Han cited US-South Korean wargames, the deployment of a US aircraft carrier to the peninsula last weekend, as well as Trump's recent tweets on Tuesday that the North is 'looking for trouble'.

A US Army soldiers ride an M1A2 tank during a joint military exercise in South Korea today

A US Army soldiers ride an M1A2 tank during a joint military exercise in South Korea today

North Korean vice foreign minister Han Song Ryol yesterday blamed Trump and the US for rising tensions

North Korean vice foreign minister Han Song Ryol yesterday blamed Trump and the US for rising tensions

The statements were criticised by South Korea's Foreign Ministry, which said Han's remarks revealed the 'true colours of North Korea's government that is bellicose and a breaker of regulations'.

It said North Korea will face strong punishment it will find hard to withstand if it makes a significant provocation, such as another nuclear test or an intercontinental ballistic missile launch.

China immediately responded, saying anyone provoking conflict will 'pay the price'.

China's foreign minister Wang Yi said today there would be 'no winner' in any war, as tensions mount with the US.

The secretive state also vowed to 'pulverize' US bases and South Korean capital Seoul if it was threatened by the US military. 

The rhetoric comes after North Korea warned that Trump's 'troublemaking' and 'aggressive' tweets have pushed the world to the brink of thermo-nuclear war.

Pyongyang's Vice Minister Han Song Ryol accused Trump of building up a 'vicious cycle' of tensions and warned the US against provoking North Korea militarily.

He added the country would continue developing its nuclear program and conduct its next nuclear test whenever its leaders see fit.

In the past week Trump has shown his willingness to launch military strikes, with US missiles deployed in Syria and Afghanistan.

The U.S. military also dropped the 'Mother of All Bombs' on an ISIS tunnel network in Afghanistan  

In unison: The huge and choreographed crowd moved together to display messages in support of Kim Jung-un in the hazy spring sunshine, as they watched tanks, multiple-launch rocket systems and other weapons parade past 

In unison: The huge and choreographed crowd moved together to display messages in support of Kim Jung-un in the hazy spring sunshine, as they watched tanks, multiple-launch rocket systems and other weapons parade past 

The rhetoric comes after North Korea warned President Donald Trump's 'troublemaking' and 'aggressive' tweets have pushed the world to the brink of thermo-nuclear war. Pictured, US Army tanks conducting a military exercise in South Korea

The rhetoric comes after North Korea warned President Donald Trump's 'troublemaking' and 'aggressive' tweets have pushed the world to the brink of thermo-nuclear war. Pictured, US Army tanks conducting a military exercise in South Korea

President Donald Trump went to his Palm Beach resort without his chief of staff or other top advisers, as they spent time away for the Easter and Passover holidays

President Donald Trump went to his Palm Beach resort without his chief of staff or other top advisers, as they spent time away for the Easter and Passover holidays

About 200 foreign journalists were allowed in North Korea for Saturday's parade. But they are closely managed by government 'minders', and saw nothing out of the ordinary in Pyongyang on Friday despite the talk of war.

Near the birthplace of Kim Il Sung, a pilgrimage spot for North Koreans, commuters moved briskly on and off the subway on Friday. 

'If the enemies want to wage war with our leaders, we have nothing to fear because we will win,' said Jon Myon Sop, who works at a bus station.

'I know about how tensions are rising on the Korean Peninsula and how the U.S. and its puppet countries have brought their military assets to the region.'

Cho Hyon Ran, a tour guide at the site, said: 'We don't want war but we are not afraid of war because we have strong power, our country is the strongest one in the world now.

'You can see all people are laughing, all people are singing, all people are celebrating the Sun's day,' she said in English. 'We are not afraid of anything.'

Special forces raid, missile strike, cyber warfare, or MORE negotiations: Trump's choices for dealing with Kim Jung-Un -but experts say there are no good options 

 Donald Trump has said that ‘all options are on the table’ when it comes to North Korea - but what exactly does that mean?

The President has a vast range of possible ways of dealing with the secretive Communist nation ranging from cyber warfare to a missile strike - and even a nuclear attack of his own.

DailyMail.com spoke to three military experts to describe what each of those options means - and the pitfalls of each.

They described the President as having ‘no good options’ with North Korea and said that it will require impressive statecraft to deal with Pyongyang.

Our experts were:

J.D. Williams, a Senior Defense Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation

Harry Krejsa, a Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security working in the Asia-Pacific Security Program

Jeff McCausland, a professor at Dickinson College, retired Army colonel, former dean of the Army War College and a CBS consultant.

North Korea's state news agency said the Trump administration's 'serious military hysteria' had reached a 'dangerous phase which can no longer be overlooked'

North Korea's state news agency said the Trump administration's 'serious military hysteria' had reached a 'dangerous phase which can no longer be overlooked'

Soldiers in tanks are paraded on the Kim Il Sung Square during a military parade at a time of increased tensions with North Korea

Soldiers in tanks are paraded on the Kim Il Sung Square during a military parade at a time of increased tensions with North Korea

THE GENERAL PICTURE

McCausland: Hope is not a method and we’ve been hoping since Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan that this problem would solve itself, that one day the people of North Korea wake up and decide this wasn’t working any more. That hasn’t happened and it seems less likely it will happen. We seem to have this foregone belief we can work with the Chinese, that was the strategy of strategic patience. They have their own interests...Somebody once described North as the land of bad choices. When you deal with a problem like North Korea which has gone on for the last three or four administrations there are no good choices.

Krejsa: The Trump administration has made a rhetorical effort to say that they are considering military action but that was never off the table. Military action has always been a back burner because the options on that side are very bad. Seoul, which is home to 20 per cent of the entire population of South Korea, is within conventional artillery range of North Korea and there are thought to be a tremendous number of North Korean military units within range of Seoul. Seoul would be very much at risk for large scale civilian casualties and military casualties….All the options we have are bad and the options we have are not effective. We need really creative statecraft on the part of the United States and its allies and I worry we don’t necessarily have all the human capital in place to pursue that.

Kim kicked off the national Day of the Sun on Saturday with a military parade consisting of thousands of perfectly-choreographed troops amid rising tensions with the United States

Kim kicked off the national Day of the Sun on Saturday with a military parade consisting of thousands of perfectly-choreographed troops amid rising tensions with the United States

Supporters line the street as the motorcase of US President Donald Trump drives to Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach on Thursday 

Supporters line the street as the motorcase of US President Donald Trump drives to Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach on Thursday 

Military experts Jeff McCausland (left), Harry Krejsa (center) and J.D. Williams (right) discussed the complicated issues associated with American military action against North Korea

MORE NEGOTIATIONS

McCausland: Broadly you only really have three options. One, you accept the fact North Korea is a nuclear power and you decide you’re going to live with it. That’s what we did in Pakistan and India and Israel. Two, you can negotiate with North Korea or around North Korea. They would like it to be a bilateral negotiation because it enhances their positions but that’s impossible for the US to do because of our close ties to the Japanese and the South Koreans. You can negotiate around the North Koreans and I think that’s what the President will try to do, negotiate more directly with the Chinese and put pressure on Kim Jong-un so he does change his path...A deal with North Korea would be a complete revolutionary change from 60 years of American foreign policy.

The solution is the Iranian deal on steroids. It’s (the Iran deal) an ugly baby it’s a far more attractive baby than doing nothing, it’s more attractive than the alternatives’

MORE SANCTIONS

Krejsa: A lot of the focus has been put towards secondary sanctions which I think are the next frontier - sanctions on companies which do business with the North Korean government but skirt restrictions. The tricky thing about them is that they would go after the sources of currency and goods and luxury items that still make their way into North Korea but fall into Chinese companies and cause problems with the Chinese relationship.

Video broadcast by North Korean broadcaster KRT showed soldiers in a parade at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang

Video broadcast by North Korean broadcaster KRT showed soldiers in a parade at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang

CYBER WARFARE

Williams: Theoretically it would be about getting access to systems that could disable or disrupt something in the operational chain of the North Korean military or specifically missile activity.

Theoretically it’s a very elegant way to achieve an effect without what the military likes to call kinetic operations, or firing guns and dropping bombs. If you have that in your kit bag it’s something you would want to consider using. But there are likely uncertainties about the effectiveness of that. Once you use them, you only get one shot because you reveal the capability and the adversary initiates protection measures.

McCausland: Using Cyber to go after the North Korean nuclear capability would be not unlike the effort against Iran using the Stuxnet virus. That being said going after North Korea is frankly more difficult simply because you’re talking about a country that’s hermetically sealed. It doesn’t have the connections to the global information systems, the Internet etcetera like a country like Iran. The portals where you can get into their systems are far more complicated. Secondarily any effort to try to do that through a human capability where you get a human inside their system who physically infects their computers is also very very difficult to do basic on how hermetically sealed this place is.

South Koreans watched a North Korean special news translation of a parade to mark the 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder Kim Il-Sung

South Koreans watched a North Korean special news translation of a parade to mark the 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder Kim Il-Sung

THE NAVAL TASK FORCE

President Trump has dispatched Nimitz-class Carl Vinson with three cruisers and destroyers to the Korean Peninsula as show of force.

Williams: Sending a carrier strike group into anybody’s neighborhood has long been an important signal, politically both to adversaries and to your friends. Secondly the group was not sent as a rapid surge sort of deployment, it was already in the Pacific. It was scheduled to do something else and they’ve been turned around to hang out off North Korea. It’s a different thing to move a carrier around when it’s forward deployed than one or more ships being sent from the West coast. There’s a magnitude of what the signal is sent here. From a military perspective the carrier group gives you offensive and defensive options. On defense the ships have missile defense capability. If you’re concerned there might be a missile attack or a missile test that might go astray and you want to protect Japan or South Korea, having that capability gives you some options. On the offensive you have striking power. You can attack land targets with manned aircraft and cruise missiles. Depending on what political circumstances are, all those things, you have some more options with the carrier strike group.

People walk past a television screen broadcasting live footage of a parade to mark the 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder Kim Il-Sung

People walk past a television screen broadcasting live footage of a parade to mark the 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder Kim Il-Sung

A MISSILE STRIKE ON NORTH KOREA

McCausland: You’re talking about a pretty massive strike far beyond what we saw in Syria with 59 cruise missiles. The simple reason is you want a very high probability with a single strike you have been pretty successful in taking them down. Obviously you have to convince the South Koreans and the Japanese you can do this in a fashion that the possibility of them retaliating against Seoul or Tokyo or some other major target has been removed or dramatically reduced.

The problem is that if our intelligence about Iraq was such we thought they had nuclear weapons and they didn’t...as one North Korea expert put it to me, we know far more about black holes than what goes on in North Korea. If you think we have absolute assurance that we know everywhere that they have stored medium range missiles with conventional warheads, let alone nuclear warheads, that’s still somewhat problematical. Any type of decapitating strike would have to address multiple locations, many (missiles) stored inside a mountain and being able to assure the Japanese and South Koreans of the high probability of success and realising even a limited response (from North Korea) could still do massive damage to those two countries.

Williams: It’s going to make it a much more difficult problem if you have to hit multiple targets in the same time frame. It’s going to be much more difficult than hitting an airfield where a chemical weapons attack came from like in Syria. There’s probabilities of success which has to be weighed at the political level about how to use force and the potential reaction. The size of the campaign would depend on how many nuclear weapons the North Koreans have and how concentrated they are. If you have nuclear weapons you’re probably not going to disperse them widely. You probably want to maintain control of them. That makes the problem a little easier, you would expect some concentration of the nuclear arsenal but at the same time North Korea will have an awareness of the threat and they will do some dispersals. The difference in trying to do a campaign to eliminate somebody’s nuclear capability is your margin of error is zero. If you don’t get them all you have a big problem.

Krejsa: The issue is if they make the decision to go down this path the downsides are going to be tremendous. I’m sure there’s discussion as to what red lines could prompt military action but I don’t think we’re anywhere near that right now just because any sort of pre-preemptive attack would bring tremendous downsides. North Korea increasingly sees its nuclear weapons as totally central to their regime’s legitimacy and the continued survival of their regime. Any effort to take that away by force would probably be seen as an act of war and an attempt at regime change.

Missiles were paraded in Kim Il Sung Square Saturday in honor of the North Korea founder

Missiles were paraded in Kim Il Sung Square Saturday in honor of the North Korea founder

OTHER ASSETS IN THE REGION

Williams: What the US can do with assets out of bases and Japan is subject to some constraints and the agreements with the host nation. You don’t have to worry about those things on an aircraft carrier. If the South Korean government and Japanese felt the threat was directed against them they would cooperate on a collaborative response. If it wasn’t they would probably some political hesitation and rightly so.

SPECIAL FORCES / ASSASSINATION

Krejsa: In recent years we’ve turned to Special Forces as a catch all that can have a light footprint and a narrow mission and get it done quickly and with great skill, but those kind of things are probably not practical for North Korea. North Korea is an intelligence black hole. Not many people believe we have great human intelligence inside North Korea and we don’t have enough understanding of how things work and where everything is to be able to do have any sort of convincing potential for success.

Williams: Special Operations are very good for doing very precise types of military action on ‘point targets’, as they are called, like if you have something that you want to do to a particular place on the ground and for whatever reason you don’t want to use a weapon like an air strike. The more recent uses have been to recover hostages, you’ve seen examples of that in Syria and Yemen. The second reason would be if you want to get intelligence out of a site like the recent raid in Yemen. Against that are risks; getting access, the possibility of something going wrong, the potential for casualties with manned aircraft. Your risk calculation goes up significantly.

Operations of this nature require very very good and precise intelligence. The choice to use it in a situation like this would be evaluated at the very highest levels of government.

My view would be: if there was very very good intelligence and part of it was that there was very strong potential for an imminent use of nuclear weapon those two things could tip the calculus to make a President strongly consider the use of Special Operations. But short of that or a decision to embark upon a campaign involving a series of military actions, I think that’s on the very low end of the probability scale.

The three experts all said the President had ‘no good options’ regarding a specific action against North Korea

The three experts all said the President had ‘no good options’ regarding a specific action against North Korea

A LARGER ATTACK BY THE US

McCausland: We’re talking about military capabilities far beyond one task force. I would hesitate to say, long range strike aircrafts such as B-52s. You’re looking for shock and awe, you’re talking large numbers carrier based aircraft, large numbers of long range aircraft coming from the United States, large numbers of cruise missiles, perhaps strategic strikes using conventional warheads.

Williams: If North Korea has the low end of the number of weapons you end up with a relatively small number of things you’re trying to get rid of. If you have good intelligence it might not be that big of a strike. It really depends on your judgments and assessments of what you have to take care of.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

McCausland: I think it’s very unlikely if not impossible to believe that the United States would use a nuclear weapon preemptively. I think that would be way off the scales.

Experts estimate North Korea is at least five years away from being capable of firing a nuclear missile that could reach the Unite States

Experts estimate North Korea is at least five years away from being capable of firing a nuclear missile that could reach the Unite States

 ….AND CAN AMERICA DEFEND ITSELF IN THE EVENT OF A STRIKE BY NORTH KOREA?

Assuming that North Korea can fire a nuclear missile that can reach the US - though experts say it may be 5-10 years from doing this - it would reach mainland America in around 30 minutes,

The missile would likely be a Taepo Dong which is thought to have a range of between 6,200 and 8,000 miles, enough to hit the US East coast.

But despite having the most powerful military in the world, America may not be able to defend itself against an attack from the Communist nation.

The Pentagon has spent $40 billion on the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system (GMD) which is designed to stop a nuclear warhead in space.

Each GMD interceptor is 60ft tall and has a 150lbs ‘kill vehicle’ at its tip.

During a nuclear attack the interceptors would be fired out of underground silos in Alaska and California and would travel through the air at four miles per second.

They would destroy the nuclear missile by crashing into it, though there are no explosives on board the interceptors.

However it is not clear if the system would work and tests have yet to be successful despite decades of similar programs and at least $84 billion being spent on missile defense over the past decade.

The Government Accountability Office said in 2015 that the GMD system ‘has not demonstrated through flight testing that it can defend the US homeland against the current missile defense threat’, which includes North Korea.

Williams: Ballistic missile defense is a very difficult problem, probably one of the most difficult problems that we have now. Our defense community is saying that we have some capability and it’s being designed and optimized to deal with the kind of threat you would get from a North Korean style attack. It’s still a hard problem, there’s been some success and failures.

Krejsa: Missile defense has improved a lot since the Star Wars era but it is no sure thing. Our capabilities are pretty good under ideal conditions but wartime is not ideal conditions.

It’s extremely unlikely we would be able to use military force to prevent a nuclear strike from happening.

 

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