Madrid Draw – Federer Gets a Tough One

Posted on April 30, 2011April 30, 2011 by Ru-an | 22 Comments

[1]Nadal v Bye
Qualifier v Baghdatis
Cilic v Starace
Del Potro v [13]Youzhny
[12]Roddick v Qualifier
Querrey v Llodra
Gasquet v Qualifier
[8]Melzer v Bye

[3]Federer v Bye
Raonic v Lopez
Qualifier v Malisse
Lu v [15]Verdasco
[10]Almagro v Tsonga
Nishikori v Qualifier
Dolgopolov v Giraldo
[5]Soderling v Bye

[7]Berdych v Bye
Granollers v Davydenko
Monaco v Golubev
Karlovic v [9]Monfils
[16]Troicki v Mayer
Bellucci v Andujar
Ljubicic v Simon
[4]Murray v Bye

[6]Ferrer v Bye
Chela v Qualifier
Stakhovsky v Montanes
Isner v [11]Fish
[14]Wawrinka v Garcia-Lopez
Qualifier v Ferrero
Anderson v Gulbis
[2]Djokovic v Bye

http://www.madridopen.info/cuadros/atps.pdf

As you can see it is not the easiest draw for Roger. First up he gets the winner of Raonic and Lopez. Both players are playing decent clay court tennis right now with Lopez in the final of the Serbian Open and Raonic winning his fair share of matches in his first clay court season. Then it looks like Roger will face Verdasco who just made the final of Estoril after Raonic withdrew after losing the first set. Incidentally that was a much expected encounter after Verdasco had some choice words for Raonic after losing to him in San Jose. He said something along the lines of hard court not being ‘real’ tennis and he implied that he would take care of Raonic on clay without a problem. It is no secret that I’m not a fan of Verdasco. I think he is unprofessional and wastes his talent by being too much of a playboy.

In my opinion Raonic just withdrew because he saw he couldn’t win the match after losing the first set and didn’t want to give Verdasco the satisfaction of a win. I have no problem with that. Raonic has the mental edge over Verdasco and he is smart not to lose it. But lets get back to the draw. If Roger gets past Verdasco it looks like he will face Soderling in the quarters. And if he wins there he will probably face Nadal. But it’s not impossible that Nadal will be upset by Del Potro, who is close to him in the draw. Del Potro is looking good on his first outing on clay in two years and made the final of Estoril. As far as I’m concerned he will win it as well. That will give him a nice boost going into Madrid with the possibility of upsetting Nadal. The altitude will make the conditions faster and favor Del Potro. Taking Nadal down on clay is of course no small task, but if anyone can do it it is Del Potro.

He has the weight of shot and the depth of ground strokes to keep Nadal under pressure. He has already shown that he can crush Nadal on hard court. If he is in good from he may just do the same on clay. If that happens to be the case it would indeed be a welcome upset in the otherwise boring clay court season. It would also mean that Roger won’t have to face his nemesis Nadal in the semis. But in the end semis would be a satisfying result for Roger as far as I’m concerned. Basically I just want him to fare better in the clay season than he did last year. Then there is always the grass season where he usually excels. For him to beat the likes of Nadal and Djokovic on clay is a a tough ask. Having said that, it is now time for Roger to step it up. No more losing to the likes of Melzer, which means semis in Madrid.

The Clay Court Season – Your Opinion Counts

Posted on April 27, 2011April 27, 2011 by Ru-an | 92 Comments

I saw you all commenting on my last post and I felt like I had to make a post for my faithful readers. This is the clay court season and it is obviously not a very exciting period for Fedfans and many other tennis fans alike. We are almost half way through the clay season and we have got exactly what we expected. Nadal has won both Monte Carlo and Barcelona, dropping just one set in the process. And what is more is that he has not really hit his stride yet. His main opposition so far has been David Ferrer, a work horse with limited talent. I can only speak for myself, but I have found both finals between the two utterly boring to watch. And the only reason I watched it was because I had nothing else to do. It is all too painfully predictable. There is just no way Ferrer is going to cause Nadal any trouble whatsoever on clay.

In the Barcelona final Nadal was below par, yet he still trounced Ferrer 6-2, 6-4. Djokovic is beginning his clay court campaign this week in Serbia. He is the only one who looks to be even close to challenging Nadal on dirt. And yet, if Nadal plays just at 80% it is almost certain that he would beat Djokovic. Nadal is simply an animal on clay, but aside from that this is not exactly a strong clay court era. If Ferrer is his main challenger on clay so far then that must be the case. Ferrer is not even a true clay court specialist. Hard court may be his best surface, where he has beaten Nadal twice in grand slams, while only beating Nadal once out of 11 meetings on clay. There simply isn’t any clay court specialists around in this clay court era, aside from Nadal himself. Roger wasn’t a clay court specialist either, but he could challenge Nadal in his peak.

The only other guys that could probably challenge Nadal on clay in a recent era was the clay court specialists Coria and Gaudio. These two together with Roger at least made things a little more interesting. They didn’t beat Nadal much, but they had tough matches against him. What Ferrer did against Nadal in Monte Carlo and Barcelona doesn’t qualify as tough matches. Djokovic is not a clay court specialist either, but at least he gave Nadal a tough match in Madrid in 2009 where he almost beat him. Djokovic 2.0 is however better, and you would expect him to carry his amazing form into the clay season. This will at least give him a chance to beat Nadal. In a way the clay season only really starts in Madrid next week. There Djokovic will be able to challenge Nadal, and Roger will also be more adjusted to clay and looking to take advantage of the altitude.

This is pretty much what the clay season comes down to. Nadal has one challenger in Djokovic who has an outside chance of beating him, and then an aging Roger. Other than that there really isn’t much. The clay court season has become a one man show, to the point where many tennis fans are just waiting for it to be over. It has become so utterly predictable that we may as well give Nadal all the silverware and move onto the grass court season. The Nadal fans will be happy that Nadal got all the silverware, and the rest of the fans will just be happy that is all over. That way everyone wins. Very few people wants to watch Nadal grind down opponent after opponent on the slow, red dirt, aside from Nadal fans themselves. Personally I get no satisfaction from watching ‘The Wall’ making the opposition bite the dirt time after time.

I respect Nadal and I think he deserves these titles. That’s why I’d be more than happy if they gave Nadal all the silverware and started the grass court season early. I’m sorry if this sounds cynical, but to me this is truly how boring and predictable the clay court season has become. Hopefully the second half of the clay season will at least be a bit more exciting than the first half. But enough of what I think. The real reason I am making this post is to hear what you think of the current clay court season, but also to start a general discussion until things get under way in Madrid. This is a boring time for tennis, but we have to make the best of it. Do you think along the same lines as I do, or do you find the clay season exciting? Nadal once called for fewer hard court events so that things would be easier on his poor knees.

Should we call for fewer clay court events, to make things lets painful on our poor eyes? Also, how to you see the rest of the clay season transpiring? Is there anyone who can cause and upset and bring the clay court season alive like in 2009?

The floor is yours.

Nadal Will Not Sweep the Clay Season

Posted on April 18, 2011April 18, 2011 by Ru-an | 48 Comments

I don’t usually make a prediction in my title, but I thought I’d have some fun. I don’t see how Nadal can make a clean sweep in the clay court season like he did last year. There are quite a few reasons for me saying so. First of all, he has already played a lot of tennis of late, making the finals on hard court in India Wells and Miami. Therefor I am surprised that he is playing a full clay court schedule which includes Barcelona this week. After that he will have one week off, and then it is the Madrid/Rome double, after which he will have another week off before the French Open. That is a lot of tennis. I thought he learned his lesson, having skipped Barcelona last year. It really amazes me that he keeps playing these events that he doesn’t need to play. The full schedule is one reason I can’t see him sweeping the clay season again.

It is just too much tennis, and he is bound to get tired. In fact, he already looked tired in Monte Carlo. This brings me to another reason why I feel he won’t sweep the clay season. He just doesn’t look to be in top form. The match against Murray reminded me of the 2009 final where he beat Djokovic in three sets. He just didn’t look as invincible as he usually does on clay. He didn’t impress me much in the final either. He won in in straight sets, but it was against someone who he usually beats easily on clay. It was a pretty close match. I think the fact that Madrid has been shifted before Rome will help Nadal however. Madrid in the caly event where Nadal is most beatable because it is at altitude. And the fact that it used to be just before the French Open didn’t help him. A prime example was 2009, where he also played a full schedule and then was exhausted at Madrid.

He lost to Roger in the final of Madrid and consequently lost against Soderling at the French Open as well. This time Madrid is before Rome and it will be after Nadal has had a week of rest. Still, I think Madrid is the event where he will be most vulnerable. I think he will probably get beaten by Djokovic there. If not then he may fall in Rome. This doesn’t mean that I think we will have a repeat of 2009 concerning the French Open. Back then Nadal had family issues which influenced him on the court. Still, I think it would have been better for him to skip Barcelona and remain unbeaten in the clay season. Now I believe he will lose at least one match, which would make him more vulnerable in Paris, even if it is just a little bit. He will also be more tired. It doesn’t mean he won’t win the French, but it may give a few select guys an outside chance of upsetting him there.

Is Roger one of those select few guys? I wouldn’t put my money on it. The one that stands out now is Djokovic, but as we saw in 2009, some unexpected player could upset him too. Don’t forget about Del Potro. I believe he can upset Nadal on clay if he is in top form. It’s hard to see Soderling doing it again. Murray has already shown he can take at least a set off Nadal. I won’t bet on Roger because of his history with Nadal. It is just too much of a match up issue for him. The kind of guy who stands a chance against Nadal in clay is a guy with a solid two handed backhand and preferably some other weapons as well. That’s why Djokovic is a prime candidate. Murray has already shown that with a solid backhand Nadal can be put under pressure. Ferrer couldn’t do the same because his backhand is not in the same league as Murray, who probably has the best backhand on tour.

I’m sorry to say it, but Ferrer has no flair. He is the kind of player that Nadal will eat for breakfast on clay time and time again. Djokovic has pretty much every shot, he has the movement, and he has enough flair. I don’t believe Nadal was nearly at his best at Monte Carlo, and the fact that Djokovic did not play Monte Carlo now seems like a smarter move than ever. He will be totally rested when his clay court campaign gets underway, while Nadal will already be pretty much exhausted. Everything now points to the fact that Djokovic will beat Nadal at least once during the clay court season. Getting back to Roger, I’m not setting my expectations very hight at this point. I have come to the point where I feel he has achieved everything I wanted him to, and whatever he achieves from here on is just a bonus.

It will be more like a nice surprise to me now if he wins something big. So for now I don’t see him winning any titles this clay season. His best chance will probably be at Madrid again, where the faster conditions will suit him. At the French Open I hope he makes at least semi-finals to improve upon last year’s result. Anything better than that would be a bonus. He will be either in Nadal or Djokovic’s half of the draw, which will make it hard for him to make the final. Then he has to hope he doesn’t get someone like Del Potro in his quarter, or Murray or Soderling for that matter. But for now I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he can beat those guys. The tough opponents on clay for him will be the ones that can pressure his backhand like Melzer did in Monte Carlo. Therefor it’s very hard to see him beat Djokovic or Nadal.