The Complete Idiot’s Guide To Being Right About Donald Trump

By Eddie Zipperer, originally published in The Hill

The complete idiot’s guide to being right about Donald Trump

If you operate under the assumption that helium is heavier than the air around you, you’re going to lose your balloon. If you’re smart, you won’t lose many balloons before you change your assumption. If you don’t change your assumption, you’re going to keep losing balloons and start to look pretty stupid in the process.

But it looks like you can’t teach old pundits new paradigms. After presidential candidate Donald Trump finished in second in the Iowa Republican caucus, the media went straight to work picking out a coffin for his campaign, battling it out to see who could write the most definitive obituary. After months of being wrong about Trump, something finally happened to make them look right: All the Iowa polls were wrong — Trump lost! Sure, he scored more Iowa votes than anyone ever — excepting Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), who won Iowa — but he lost. Trump is a loser and this proves it.

It’s hard to blame them for trying to spike the ball in Trump’s face. You’ve seen it before. Your favorite NFL team is down by 50 points. The team finally gets a first down, and the halfback celebrates like he just won the Super Bowl. Everyone except him just laughs and shakes their head. That’s what opinion writers like David Brooks — who wrote a piece declaring that “Donald Trump Isn’t Real” in the aftermath of Iowa — looked like last week. CNN ran a piece by Michael D’Antonio headlined “Donald Trump is a loser.” And the list of similar sentiments is long.

The pressure of being wrong about Trump over and over was building, so when it appeared they were finally right about something, the release was earthshaking.

Last July, I asked a political science professor at an Ivy League university how Trump would appeal to the electorate in a general election. He told me that “It’s a moot point” because “Trump has no chance of surviving the primaries.”

I predicted Trump’s demise more than once myself since last summer. The difference between me and the rest of them is that I threw out my broken election assumptions and started holding tight to the string of my balloon. For anyone interested, below is a guide on how to be right about Trump next time. It all starts with rejecting the bad assumptions and embracing the good ones.

Bad assumption: Manners are of the utmost importance. Every time Trump utters a naughty word, the media go nuts. The story was everywhere on Tuesday (you know the one; he repeated an audience member’s use of the word “pussy”). I heard more than one talking head predict that Trump would lose the New Hampshire primary when voters found out. Didn’t happen; never will. Trump doesn’t do manners, and his supporters don’t want him to.

Good Assumption: Every time Trump says something that no other politician ever would, he scores points. Politicians are well-mannered in front of voters and employ others to do their dirty work. Take former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), for instance. He talks a big game about the president being mature and the presidency as being above Trump’s behavior. Sounds nice, but then consider the truth lurking behind Bush. According to Larry Sabato, “Jeb Bush is Meaner Than He Looks.” Or recall former presidential candidate Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) lecturing us on maturity during the same debate where his communications director, Sergio Gor, tweeted a copy of Carly Fiorina’s closing statement that had been left in the hotel copier.

Bad assumption: An ideological misstep will dissolve Trump’s support. Most Republican voters despise eminent domain. I despise eminent domain. In Saturday night’s debate, Trump defended eminent domain. He didn’t try to “Rubio” his way out of it with prepared sound bites. He didn’t try to muddy the water and make people question whether he actually supported it. He was totally straight about it.

Good assumption: Honesty transcends ideology. Voters would rather disagree with a straight-shooter than agree with a political wind-tester. We’ve seen too many politicians run as conservatives and then prove not to be. Voters have become suspect of politicians with ideologies that try too hard to match the electorate.

Bad assumption: Trump is unelectable in November. Uh-huh. Just like he could never win the primaries. Every time a pundit says Trump is unelectable in November, there’s a good chance he or she also wrote him off in the GOP primary a few months ago and at every step along the way. Repeating something over and over doesn’t make it true. Just ask Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

Good assumption: Trump is a winner.

21 thoughts on “The Complete Idiot’s Guide To Being Right About Donald Trump”

  1. I’ve had my take on this for a while. Trump is going to win bigger than anyone since Reagan.

    1) He is a giant FU to the political/media establishment. Commentators just cannot seem to grok this simple fact; they are despised with a white hot hatred that is bottomless. They created the problem, they rubbed everyone’s nose in their elitism and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.

    2) He is a master of neuro-linguisitc programming. He’s better than 90% of the hypnotists I’ve seen out there because he has figured out how to do it without putting people under, this way it works on an even higher number of subjects.

    3) As badly overused as the term is these days, he is alpha as fuck. ZFG. Your choices are an angry old lady with a history of duplicity and malfeasance, a Brooklyn commie in his dotage that bends his head and grabs his nuts every time some one of a dusky hue drifts into frame, a stoop shouldered, lipstick wearing mamma’s boy who has an oompa loompa for a wife and two Presidents for relatives, both of whom were despised, a jug eared, half gay latino who sounds like a spergy Teddy Ruxpin, a Canadian Eddie Munster all grown up and who else exactly? Anyone?

    If that’s the competition, there’s no competition.

    I have my reasons for disliking Trump but they are shared by precisely no one in America outside of my own circle of family and friends, but I know how animals react when they are in the presence of a more powerful animal and humans are animals, no matter how many I-gadgets they own.

    Now if there is some sort of insider plot where TPTB have promised him something unfathomable for taking a dive or if they plan on taking him out, then all bets are off, but if things are as they appear, then it won’t even be a contest. The first debate where he goes up against Hildabeast is going to be one for the record books. Her head is gonna ‘splode.

    Trump is going to slam dunk this like Michael Jordan at his peak. You can take that to the bank

  2. Eddie Zipperer- I predicted Trump’s demise more than once myself since last summer.

    No shit .It’s the Hill after all. Establishment as cuck !

  3. I agree, if Trump makes it as the nomination then a landslide.

    I still find it hard to believe republicans will allow such a thing to occure.

  4. Paragraph 3 is a better creative writing piece than any of your articles. “A stoop shouldered lipstick wearing mommas boy with an oompa loompa for a wife.” Consider that stolen

  5. Card802….I find it hard to believe the Dem’s have put up Hildebeast and an overt Commie as the top choices, as I’ve seen that the Dem’s have been more intelligently organized in the past than the Rep’s. – look back at how O’Liar won Twice.

  6. First time I heard Trump make a politically incorrect statement and refuse to apologize for it to the press and leftist forces attacking him I started liking him.

    Almost everything he’s done since that gets him attacked by those I put on the political enemy side of the equation I like him more.

    BTW that “political enemy” side is not party exclusive, it contains large numbers from both parties.

    At least he’s different, that’s not really something you can say about any other candidate on any side. And different means something might actually change instead of going the same way it has been with just a different flavor of leadership taking it that way.

    And that also makes me like him more.

    Normally, I don’t vote for either Republicans or Democrats, but it Trump ends up on the ballot I’m pretty sure -pretty sure, not absolutely sure- I’ll make an exception to that this time.

  7. kokoda,

    “O’liar” had a lot of help from the Republicans with their pitiful candidate the second time.

    The Democrats can’t really take full credit for it.

  8. There are plenty of policy issues and statements Trump has that I disagree with. That being said, IF I end up voting this cycle, I would vote Trump as well. I’m tired of voting for guys that I feel good about like Buchanan/Ron Paul/Perot…but don’t amount to anything. Trump at least seems to realize now that we shouldn’t be the 19trillion dollars in debt Policeman of the world, nor should we let more unfettered immigration in a country with declining wages, issues with water/food production, a massive welfare state etc etc. Plus he calls out the Muslims, which even the so called “moderate” of them have beliefs systems that are antithetical to the US rule of law/freedoms. Don’t know how the gays and Lib women can be Pro-Muslim, they pretty much kill them or treat them like slaves in nearly all Muslim countries.

    Plus as pointed out the desire to give the middle finger to the MSM and everyone by voting Trump, despite his many flaws is pretty enticing.

  9. Kokoda,

    I have a lot of liberal democrat relatives and it’s been explained:

    It was time for a black president and past time for a female president, it’s really as simple as that with these idiots. Social justice and equality, qualifications do not enter into the equation.

  10. I can’t picture anybody as his running-mate though. The other Repugs would be too chicken-shit because of the perceived risk factor. If he chooses an out-of-nowhere candidate, there is a huge risk that the MSM will release unrelenting attacks on the person to distract from The Donald. I guess I just fear that his enemies will find a way to destroy him yet.

  11. Assuming that Trump can or will win the Republican primary and become the Republican candidate for president based on the popular votes in Iowa and New Hampshire is a big assumption. I see two big problems with this.

    1) I’m not sure about Iowa, but in New Hampshire anyone registered as “Independent” can choose to vote in either primary when they walk up to the polls. I believe that in many other states only the people previously registered as republican can vote in the republican primary. This will seriously cut the number of votes for Trump in those states since his appeal is strongest among the disaffected.

    2) We’re not taking the power of the political parties and the vagarities of the primary process into account. For example, Bernie won NH by a vast majority but at best will tie the number of Democrat delegates for Hillary in NH. Why? Superdelegates who will vote based on what the party wants rather than what the people want. The Republican party doesn’t have superdelegates, but they do have unpledged delegates which serve the same purpose. Also, what happens to the delegates who are pledged to someone who later drops out of the race?

    Even if Trump wins the popular vote in the primaries there is no guarantee that he will be the republican candidate.

  12. HSF, good summary. The note of value, coming from you, is that he is a fairgrounds hypnotist. While I have taken a stab at making that point, you add oomph to it given your participation on the other side as a professional hypnotist.

    I believe that is what comedians do – they hypnotize an audience and pretty soon they have them barking with delight like seals at the mention of a dirty word. Trump has got them doing the same. The audience shows up hoping to hear the Trump utter the word pussy or schlong.

    It wont be just the establishment getting the big FU. His brushing aside of Bush’s hit on eminent domain shows his total lack of conscience. There is no way to make shit stick to this new teflon mack. The fact the Bushes cannot WH Trump is almost proof positive that Trump will sail into the WH.

  13. Trump will make an amazing president. His policies will be magnificent. The economy will become fabulous. The foreign policy will be fantastically successful. He will love everybody like the Bushies.he will make America great again and the deals he makes will be wonderful. Ford, Chrysler and Carrier wil bring their factories and jobs back to the USA. Then they will slam the gate on the Great Wall of the Southwest. How can anybody be against that. VOTE TRUMP!

  14. “His brushing aside of Bush’s hit on eminent domain shows his total lack of conscience.”

    One of my first encounters with Trump was back in the 80’s. At the time Trump had taken over Bob Guccione’s old casino property in Atlantic City and the only missing property piece belonged to an old lady named Vera Coking. She and her husband had bought the place back in the 60’s for 20K as a retreat (like admin’s pad in Wildwood) and she refused to sell for a quarter of a million to Trump. They used eminent domain (and at that time AC government wanted casinos so bad they would have killed the old lady themselves) they lost in court and the old lady got to hang onto her property although they eventually built the casino around and over top of her place leaving it pretty much worthless.

    A lot of people disliked the way he handled that- I was one of them- but a lot of other people thought that the greater good outweighed the cranky old lady’s beach pad and it was clear that she was trying to get maximum $ out of the deal, she even said so after the fact.

    That said, at least Mr Trump’s reply was honest. To hear a bush talk about “rights” or “sovereignty” is guffaw worthy, especially considering the way his family liked to eminent domain the hell out of other people’s countries.

    Bush pulled the eminent domain deal himself on close to a million citrus trees in Florida WITHOUT COMPENSATION back in the early 00’s and now it’s still being dealt with in the courts to the tune of something like a 100 million pesos (JEB!)

    Not sure if that changes anything, but it’s nice to at least understand the background.

  15. Trump is channeling the Governator whose favorite word was ‘Fantastic’. In retrospect, he was not approving a comment with that reply but you loved him for his seeming approval.

  16. HSF, I gave the Bushes credit for Willie Horton. If they can’t sink Trump with their dirty tricks, Trump is in.
    And let’s not forget the stolen election back in ’00. They bought off the Secretary of State with promises of higher office. Weasels.

    Founding Fathers never quite spelled out how to run elections. Did they include the word ‘fair’ somewhere in there?

  17. Wonderful comments, all of you.

    Smart, witty, and funny.

    It is NOT time for a woman president just now.

    The woman trying for it isn’t the right person..
    too much baggage and too old…it would be
    a disaster. Let her work at her “foundation.”

    Furthermore, we need a man in the office that can
    emit maximum alpha, thank you HSF for using the
    term. We have many countries in disarray…if push
    comes to shove, an alpha can bluff his way through it.

  18. Would be possibly a good thing if Trump was as he states.

    Without a doubt he is an Alpha type male . Which is good in business. .

    Unquestioning belief in one’s own self .
    Works well most of the time.
    Smart as fuck .
    Completes the gap of Alpha when exposed to new situations.

    If I voted he would get my vote .

    Unfortuanately I am way too cynical to vote for anyone .

    I , also, am in a business environment . Managing competing demands means picking the highest priority at the moment.

    Actions speak ,so ,from action , what is his highest priority ? Words mean one thing , action quite another most of the time .

    Can he overcome the inertia of the bueracracy to make real reform in all so called govt agenciec?
    can he overcome the globalist one world agenda? So called NWO ? Can he get the U.S off the Fed reserve tit? Will he boot the U.N. off this continent ?

    Can he restore property rights , so that once I pay for a piece of property , it is mine ? No default thru property taxes?
    He is , indeed smart enough , to understand the questions. But can it be, one of his priorities?

    Doubtful. Whatever


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