Migrant influx 'to fall sharply after leaving the EU': Watchdog predicts net number of new arrivals will fall to 165,000 by 2023
- According to previous estimates it was expected to fall to 185,000 by 2021
- It would reduce pressure on public services, including schools and hospitals
- Officials warned that the fall in the number of migrants would mean lower GDP, employment and house prices
The number of migrants entering Britain will fall sharply after Brexit, according to the public spending watchdog.
The Office of Budget Responsibility predicts net migration – the number of new arrivals minus those who leave – will fall to 165,000 by 2023.
According to previous estimates it was expected to fall to 185,000 by 2021.
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The Office of Budget Responsibility predicts net migration – the number of new arrivals minus those who leave – will fall to 165,000 by 2023. Pictured are migrants waiting to be rescued from a small wooden boat by crew members from the Migrant Offshore Aid Station just off Lampedusa, Italy
Last year net migration stood at 250,000 a year, but the government’s target is to cut the number to the tens of thousands by the end of the Parliament.
Officials warned that the fall in the number of migrants would mean lower GDP, employment and house prices.
But it would also reduce pressure on public services, including schools and hospitals and also spending on welfare.
The estimates mirror the Office for National Statistics projections for population growth over the coming years.
The OBR also includes assumptions about higher mortality rates among adults in the UK. Combined with migration, the lower number of people will mean total GDP could be 0.2 per cent lower by 2021-22.
According to the OBR’s ‘Economic and Fiscal Output’, ministers are expected to adopt a ‘tighter migration regime following departure from the EU than that currently in place, but not sufficiently tight to reduce net inward migration to the desired ‘tens of thousands’.
Officials warned that the fall in the number of migrants would mean lower GDP, employment and house prices. File photo of police rounding up Romanians living at Hendon Football Club
Officials suggest the Leave vote would reduce the number of migrants coming to Britain partly because of the weak pound means their wages are worth less when sent to their home country.
Despite the falls in migrant numbers, they predict that around three quarters of the 700,000 increase in employment will be accounted for by migrants.
The latest official figures showed that net migration is at a three-year low. However, the number of EU nationals in the UK is still at a record high.
Figures revealed earlier this month that more than 100,000 new arrivals settled here, despite claims that a post-Brexit atmosphere made Europeans feel unwelcome and uncertainties over their future had seen workers flooding back to their home countries.
Official figures showed that the EU workforce in the UK reached its highest-ever total of 2,378,000 in the 12 months to the end of September.
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