Are you a winner or a loser? How the Trump tax cut legislation affects average Americans

  • Middle class Americans will get a big tax cut and see their wages go up because of a slash on the rate paid by corporations, Republicans have said 
  • They're doubling the standard deduction and the child tax credit  and giving businesses a permanent break to spur job creation
  • Two-parent family with two children making $75,000 would keep $2,000 more and a family of four making $150,000 would get twice that, Trump admin says
  • But the bill creates plenty of losers too
  • Slashes for income tax will expire in 2025 unless Congress renews them
  • An estimated 13 million additional Americans are projected to be without health insurance
  • Commuters will no longer receive a perk that has saved them money
  • Some residents of high-tax states like New York, New Jersey and California will pay more because of a change to the state and local tax deduction

A standard selling point for the GOP's tax overhaul plan is that middle class Americans will get a big tax cut and see their wages go up because of a slash on the rate paid by corporations.

Republicans are doubling the standard deduction and the child tax credit, lowering tax rates across the board until 2025 and giving businesses a permanent break to spur job creation.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said Sunday on CNN that a two-parent family with two children making $75,000 would keep $2,000 more a year and a family of four with a combined salary of $150,000 would get twice that. 

'It's going to be one of the great Christmas gifts to middle-income people,' President Donald Trump on Saturday said.

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Democrats were upset at a feature of the bill that axed the Obamacare 'individual mandate' penalty, a tax paid by Americans who don't buy medical insurance

A standard selling point for the GOP's tax overhaul plan is that middle class Americans will get a big tax cut and see their wages go up because of a slash on the rate paid by corporations.  But an estimated 13 million Americans are projected to lose health insurance

About 500 protesters chanting Kill the Bill, Dont Kill Us! filled the street outside the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday 

About 500 protesters chanting Kill the Bill, Dont Kill Us! filled the street outside the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday 

The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that 'taxes would fall for all income groups on average in 2018, increasing overall average after-tax income by 2.2 per cent.'

'In general, tax cuts as a percentage of after-tax income would be larger for higher-income groups, with the largest cuts as a share of income going to taxpayers in the 95th to 99th percentiles of the income distribution.'

But the bill creates some problems too.

WINNERS AND LOSERS 

According to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center:

'The impact of the proposal on individual taxpayers differs depending on their income sources, demographic and family statuses, and other characteristics that affect eligibility for certain tax benefits.'

'In 2018, 80 percent of taxpayers would receive a tax cut from the included provisions – averaging about $2,100 – and about 5 percent would face an average tax increase of about $2,800.

'In the bottom income quintile, 54 percent would receive a tax cut and 1 percent would face a tax increase. In the middle income quintile, 91 percent would receive a tax cut and 7 percent would face a tax increase. In the top 1 percent of the income distribution, 91 percent would receive a tax cut and 9 percent would face a tax increase.'

An estimated 13 million Americans are projected to lose health insurance. Commuters will no longer receive a perk that has saved them money. Some residents of high-tax states like New York, New Jersey and California will pay more because of a change to the state and local tax deduction. 

And millions of American households could face tax hikes in coming years. That's because their new tax breaks are set to expire within the next decade. Their taxes could also creep up because the IRS has been directed to use a less generous gauge of inflation in adjusting tax brackets.

Republican lawmakers have sold their far-reaching legislation as benefiting everyone in the long run because, they argue, it will speed up economic growth. 

Yet, most economists say that any boost in growth would be modest in the long term. And most argue that at least some of the tax benefits will be undermined by the much higher budget deficits that help pay for them.  

Most Americans would receive tax cuts initially. 

By raising the standard deduction to $12,000 for individuals and $24,000 for joint filers, Americans who choose not to itemize will pay no taxes on income up to that amount.

An increase in the child tax credit from $1,000 to $2,000, of which $1,400 is refundable, is another major middle class benefit. 

But lower income tax rates and a host of other benefits would expire after 2025. This effectively sets up an $83 billion tax hike for many millions of Americans in 2027 unless Congress renews the cuts.

And the impact of income taxes could continue to inch up because the plan will adjust the tax brackets at a less generous measure of inflation than it formerly did.

Maria Mena (left), an insurance agent from Sunshine Life and Health Advisors, speaks with Elena Blondin as she shops for insurance under the Affordable Care Act. Around 13 million Americans are set to lose health insurance under the reforms

Maria Mena (left), an insurance agent from Sunshine Life and Health Advisors, speaks with Elena Blondin as she shops for insurance under the Affordable Care Act. Around 13 million Americans are set to lose health insurance under the reforms

SOME OTHER TAX WINNERS 

THE TRUMP ORGANIZATION: At least temporarily, companies with profits that double as the owner's personal income would enjoy a substantial tax break. Consider the Trump Organization. It consists of about 500 such 'pass-through' entities, according to the president's lawyers. Rather than pay the top rate of nearly 40 percent, Trump would likely be taxed on these profits at closer to 30 percent.

THE TRUMP TAX BRACKETS

Single filers 

$0 to $9,525 – 10%

$9,525 to $38,700 – 12%

$38,700 to $82,500 – 22%

$82,500 to $157,500 – 24%

$157,500 to $200,000 – 32%

$200,000 to $500,000 – 35%

$500,000 and up – 37%

Married couples who file jointly

$0 to $19,050 – 10%

$19,050 to $77,400 – 12%

$77,400 to $165,000 – 22%

$165,000 to $315,000 – 24%

$315,000 to $400,000 – 32%

$400,000 to $600,000 – 35%

$600,000 and up – 37%

The final bill also appears to specifically benefit the real estate sector, the bedrock of the Trump family's wealth, with benefits extended to pass-throughs that own buildings but don't pay wages to workers.

The president's family didn't receive every possible benefit. The estate tax on inheritances, for example, will stay in place, though it will apply only to the portion of a family's estate that exceeds $11 million – twice the previous level – at least through 2025. And the alternative minimum tax, which is intended to prevent the wealthy from exploiting loopholes to avoid taxes, would stay in place as well, though its higher thresholds would also be temporary. 

ENERGY DRILLERS: It's no longer off limits to drill in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and natural gas. President Barack Obama had sought to protect the 19.6-million acres, a home for polar bears, caribou, migratory birds and other wildlife. But under the Republicans' tax plan, fossil fuel companies could tap into oil and gas reserves. Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and other Republicans insist that drilling can be done safely with new technology while ensuring a steady energy supply for West Coast refineries. 

Reverend Brian Gibbs of the New York Council of Churches leads the chants against the tax bill

Reverend Brian Gibbs of the New York Council of Churches leads the chants against the tax bill

Some of the biggest winners are wealthy Americans like the president and his family and friends who will get a rate cut for themselves and the businesses

Some of the biggest winners are wealthy Americans like the president and his family and friends who will get a rate cut for themselves and the businesses

SPORTS TEAMS: Major sports teams will still be able to build and renovate their stadiums with tax-exempt municipal bonds. The House version of the tax bill had initially scrapped access to this form of debt by sports teams, a provision that drew objections from the NFL. But the final bill retains it.

Such tax-advantaged public financing should make it easier to have the Oakland Raiders, for example, move to Las Vegas and play in a new $1.9 billion dome. Forbes estimates the Raiders, owned by Mark Davis, to be worth $2.4 billion. 

MAJOR CORPORATIONS: The tax rate for most companies would drop to 21 percent from 35 percent. This is a permanent rate cut, which, along with a shift to a lower rate on some foreign earnings, could help boost corporate profits. Not surprisingly, the stock market has soared in part over anticipation of these lower corporate taxes. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index has jumped nearly 24 percent since Trump's election last year. 

TAX LAWYERS: Rather than close loopholes, the tax bill appears to create more of them. Tax lawyers and accountants will likely be besieged by clients looking for professional guidance in restructuring companies and incomes to avoid taxes. In fact, tax experts and lawyers who reviewed a prior version of the tax bill outlined a slew of loopholes in a 35-page report in which it warned that the bill would 'allow new tax games and planning opportunities for well-advised taxpayers.' 

More than 60 people lay down in the street for a die-in and 15 protesters were arrested blocking access to the New York Stock Exchange 

More than 60 people lay down in the street for a die-in and 15 protesters were arrested blocking access to the New York Stock Exchange 

Isabel Diaz Tinoco  (left) and Jose Luis Tinoco speak with Otto Hernandez, an insurance agent from Sunshine Life and Health Advisors, as they shop for insurance

Isabel Diaz Tinoco (left) and Jose Luis Tinoco speak with Otto Hernandez, an insurance agent from Sunshine Life and Health Advisors, as they shop for insurance

SOME TAX LOSERS  

THE UNINSURED: The tax bill removes a penalty that was charged to people without health insurance as required by Obama's 2010 health insurance law as a way to hold costs down for everyone. By eliminating this mandate, the tax bill will likely deprive 13 million people of insurance, according to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office.

The repeal of the health insurance mandate will help preserve revenue to pay for the tax cuts. The government would no longer have to subsidize as many low-income people receiving insurance. This change would generate $314.1 billion over 10 years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. 

COMMUTERS: It could get more expensive to ride the subway or park your car near work. Employers would no longer be able to deduct from their taxes the cost of providing parking or transit passes worth up to $255 a month to workers. Bicycle commuters would also lose their benefit from companies.

Technically, companies could still offer this benefit. But under the tax bill, they will lose the financial incentive to do so. Such a change could have the effect of reducing ridership on public transit and possibly increase costs for riders on rail and bus systems. 

HOMEOWNERS IN HIGH-TAX STATES: The bill imposes a $10,000 cap on taxpayers who deduct their state, local and property taxes – and the cap isn't adjusted for inflation. Currently, there is no limit on how much in state and local taxes you can deduct. Some Republican lawmakers in such high-tax states such as California and New York voted against the bill because their constituents' taxes could increase as a result of the provision, but the measure still passed. 

TAXPAYERS AFTER 2025: Most Americans would receive tax cuts initially. But the lower rates and a host of other benefits would expire after 2025. This effectively sets up an $83 billion tax hike for many millions of Americans in 2027. More than half of taxpayers would pay more in taxes that year, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.

What's more, people's taxes could continue to creep up because the plan will adjust the tax brackets at a less generous measure of inflation than it formerly did. The slower indexing for inflation amounts to a $400 billion tax hike between 2028 and 2037 that would help finance the lower corporate rates, Lily Batchelder, a New York University law professor and former Obama White House adviser, observed on Twitter.

Congress could decide years from now to extend the lower tax rates. But doing so would increase the deficit far more than the $1.5 trillion now being estimated by Congress' Joint Committee on Taxation.

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How the Trump tax cuts affect average Americans

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