Ballotpedia's Top 10 primaries, September 13, 2018

We’ve identified 10 primaries in each party as the most compelling intra-party contests of this cycle, either because they reflect an ideological battle between two factions within a party or a close primary contest in a battleground election. Click here for more on how we build this list.

With the primary season complete, we added two sets of state legislative primaries to our Top 10 primaries lists. On the Democratic side, we added the September 13 primaries in the New York State Senate to our Top 10 Democratic primaries list. In the Empire State, progressive challengers unseated six of nine Democratic senators who have helped keep Republicans in control of the state Senate in recent years. The state senators who faced primary challenges included eight former members of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC). The IDC caucused with Republicans from 2013 to 2018 and kept them in power even though Democrats often held a numerical majority. Former IDC leader Jeffrey Klein and six other incumbent Democratic state senators (including five former IDC members) were defeated.

On the Republican side, we added the spring primaries in the Texas state legislature to our final Top 10 Republican primaries list. In Texas, the conflict in this year's state legislative primaries was between a faction supportive of House Speaker Joe Straus (R) and those opposed to his leadership, including members of the Texas Freedom Caucus. Straus was first elected state House speaker in 2009 by a coalition of his allies in the Republican Party and House Democrats. Opposition to his leadership grew in 2017, especially after he and his allies attempted to block priorities of Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Lieutenant Gov. Dan Patrick (R) in a special session. These priorities included a bill that would regulate bathroom usage in Texas, legislation related to property taxes, and an education funding bill, which eventually passed. Straus announced his retirement in October 2017, setting up a contest to elect the next speaker of the state House in 2019. Both the pro-Straus and anti-Straus factions are likely to run candidates in the speaker's race, meaning the 2018 primaries could have been pivotal in deciding which faction would have more influence after the 2018 elections.

Our final lists contain primaries for ten U.S. House seats, seven governor’s races, one U.S. Senate seat, and two sets of state legislative contests.

Know of a race that belongs on our list? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.
Last updated: September 13, 2018

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Top 10 Democratic Primaries Ranked list

(Last week's ranking in parentheses)

1. (1) Florida governor (August 28)
2. (2) New York's 14th Congressional District (June 26)
3. (3) Illinois' 3rd Congressional District (March 20)
4. (4) Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District (September 4)
5. (6) Kansas' 3rd Congressional District (August 7)
6. (5) Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (May 15)
7. (-) New York state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018 (September 13) - newly added
8. (7) Colorado governor (June 26)
9. (9) Minnesota governor (August 14)
10. (10) Virginia's 10th Congressional District (June 12)

Races removed from the Top 10 list this week

Michigan's 11th (August 7)

Top 10 Republican Primaries Ranked list

(Last week's ranking in parentheses)

1. (1) Arizona Senate (August 28)
2. (2) South Carolina's 1st Congressional District (June 12)
3. (3) Florida governor (August 28)
4. (4) Georgia governor (May 22) & runoff (July 24)
5. (7) Kansas governor (August 7)
6. (5) Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)
7. (9) Wyoming governor (August 21)
8. (6) Minnesota's 1st Congressional District (August 14)
9. (-) Texas state legislative Republican primaries (March 6 and May 22) - newly added
10. (8) Michigan's 11th Congressional District (August 7)

Races removed from the Top 10 list this week

Montana Senate (June 5)

Top 10 Democratic Primaries race summaries

• Florida governor (August 28)

See also: Florida gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 28 Democratic primary)

Florida Democrats looked to take back the governor's office for the first time in 20 years with Gov. Rick Scott (R) term-limited and election forecasters calling the general election a "Toss-up." Five Democratic candidates argued that they were best suited to represent the party in November.

Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum touted his support for single-payer healthcare and highlighted that, unlike the other candidates, he did not have personal or family wealth to fund his campaign. Democratic donors George Soros and Tom Steyer, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Democracy for America endorsed him. He also had support from satellite groups. Steyer's NextGen America, the Collective Super PAC, and a coalition of grassroots progressive organizations announced nearly $7 million in spending on his behalf. National and Florida Democrats lined up behind former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, the daughter of former Florida Gov. and U.S. Sen. Bob Graham (D). She highlighted her support for abortion access and attention to women's issues as well as her plans to expand Medicaid in Florida, tighten gun regulations, and increase public education funding. She said her 2014 election to a North Florida congressional seat proved she was the only candidate who could win in Republican-leaning areas.

Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine Levine, who owned a cruise line media company, self-funded nearly $22 million as of mid-August, with most going into television advertising. His ads emphasized his support for additional restrictions on firearms, stronger government regulation of Florida's environment in the face of the 2018 toxic algae bloom, and increasing public education funding. Real estate investor Jeff Greene emphasized his plan to revamp education in the state and criticized Levine and Graham in campaign ads saying they harmed Florida’s environment during their stints in elected office. Entrepreneur Christopher King partially self-funded his campaign with around $5 million. He called for changes in gun laws and the criminal justice system, saying he represented transformative change rather than just partisan change for Florida.

Although most polling showed former Graham and Levine leading the field, Gillum won the primary with just over 34 percent of the vote. Graham finished second with 31 percent, and Levine was third.

• New York's 14th Congressional District (June 26)

See also: New York's 14th Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Democratic primary)

Long-time incumbent Rep. Joseph Crowley, who had not seen a primary challenge since 2004, was defeated by self-described democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the Democratic primary for New York's 14th District. Crowley became the first Democratic incumbent member of Congress to lose in the primary in 2018. He had been a congressman since 1999 and was chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, the 4th highest-ranking member in the Democratic Party leadership. Crowley was also identified by Roll Call as one of six Democrats most likely to succeed Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) should she step down as House Minority Leader. At the end of March 2018, Crowley had a 22-to-1 fundraising lead over Ocasio-Cortez, who had pledged not to accept contributions from lobbyists.

Ocasio-Cortez garnered endorsements from progressive groups including Justice Democrats, Brand New Congress, and NYC Democratic Socialists of America. Crowley's list of endorsements included more than 20 labor unions, NARAL Pro-Choice America, Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America, and more than a dozen state legislators. Both candidates expressed support for $15 minimum wage and Medicare for All policies; Ocasio-Cortez credited her campaign with pushing Crowley to the left on these issues, while Crowley's campaign argued that "he's always been a progressive advocate."

• Illinois' 3rd Congressional District (March 20)

See also: Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election (March 20, 2018 Democratic primary)

Longtime incumbent Rep. and Blue Dog Coalition member Daniel Lipinski defeated political newcomer Marie Newman by just over 2,100 votes, 51 percent to 49 percent, for the Democratic nomination in Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District for a seat held by the party since 1975. This race, called "a battle for the soul of the Democratic party” by Kate Sweeny of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, was seen as a good example of the struggle between moderate and progressive Democrats.

Newman based her campaign on her opposition to Lipinski's positions on reproductive issues and healthcare, saying that he opposed federal funding for cervical cancer screenings and voted against the Affordable Care Act because of funding for contraception included in the bill. Lipinski countered that he voted 26 times to support funding for family planning programs from 2005 to 2017. Newman received the backing of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), the NARAL Pro-Choice America and the Human Rights Campaign. Lipinski was backed by the Illinois AFL-CIO, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D), state party chairman Michael Madigan (D), the Chicago Sun Times and the Chicago Tribune.

• Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District (September 4)

See also: Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District election (September 4, 2018 Democratic primary)

Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley (D) defeated longtime incumbent Rep. Michael Capuano (D) in his first contested primary in two decades. Capuano was the fourth House incumbent to lose his primary in 2018. At the time of the election, Massachusetts' 7th was the state's only majority-minority district. Pressley, who is black, highlighted the importance of representation in the race. She said, "This district and these times demand more than an ally, they demand an advocate and a champion." She was endorsed by Justice Democrats, Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey (D), and Boston City Councilor Michelle Wu.

Pressley ran as a change candidate and criticized Capuano for compromising too much on key issues, including immigration and abortion. She pointed to his willingness to fund a border along the U.S.-Mexico border—which she called a "Trump hate wall"—as part of a larger immigration bill. Pressley also attacked Capuano's vote to support an amendment to the Affordable Care Act banning federal funding of abortion. Capuano defended his vote, saying it was necessary to get the larger health insurance bill passed. The Congressional Black Caucus endorsed Capuano, with caucus chairman and U.S. Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) saying in a statement, "Capuano has built his career on standing up for those who have been left behind, from health care, to transportation, to housing. We ... have a strong, committed partner in Mike and unanimously support his campaign for Congress.” Capuano also had support from other party leaders in the state, including former Gov. Deval Patrick (D).

• Kansas' 3rd Congressional District (August 7)

See also: Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election (August 7, 2018 Democratic primary)

Sharice Davids defeated five opponents and won the party's nomination to challenge Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) in Kansas' 3rd Congressional District. Davids received just over 37 percent of the vote and finished about 2,000 votes ahead of second-place finisher Brent Welder, who took 34 percent. The district voted for Hillary Clinton (D) by 1 percentage point in the 2016 presidential election, and perceived dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump (R) brought the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) optimism that the district could be in play. The DCCC placed the district on its target list for 2018.

Davids, who has experience as a lawyer, economic adviser, and former mixed martial arts competitor, ran with the backing of EMILY's List. Davis would be the first Native American woman in Congress if elected, and she got her start in politics on a federal level working on economic development programs on the Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota. Davids would also be the first openly gay member of the Kansas delegation and is endorsed by the Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund.

Welder is a labor lawyer who received endorsements from Our Revolution and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, among other progressive groups. He spent more than a year working for Bernie Sanders' (D) presidential campaign and ran on many of the policy positions that Sanders ran on in 2016, such as a $15 per hour minimum wage and Medicare for all. Welder was endorsed by Bernie Sanders (I) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) and he led all Democrats in small-dollar donations and cash on hand as of July. Businessman and 2016 Democratic nominee Jay Sidie, nonprofit executive Mike McCamon, teacher Tom Niermann, and retired bank manager Sylvia Williams also ran.

• Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (May 15)

See also: Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)

Moderates and progressives clashed in the Democratic primary for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District on May 15, where nonprofit executive and Metropolitan Community College board member Kara Eastman defeated the district’s former congressman, Brad Ashford. Ashford, who held the seat for a single term before losing his re-election bid to current incumbent Rep. Don Bacon (R), had the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which added him to its “Red to Blue” list. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee backed Eastman. She also had the support of local unions and state figures such as state Sens. Tony Vargas and Justin Wayne. Eastman ran on a platform that included tuition-free college and universal healthcare.

Eastman defeated Ashford by just over 1,100 votes, 51 percent to 49 percent. While progressive groups celebrated Eastman's victory, political observers questioned whether her victory hurt Dems' chances to win the seat. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik tweeted after the primary that they were changing the rating on the general election race in this district from "Toss-up" to "Leans Republican" after Eastman’s victory. “Basically the NRCC got what it wanted and the DCCC didn't,” Kondik said. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is a national 527 group and subsidiary of the Republican Party that aims to build and maintain a Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives through contributions to Republican candidates and political organizations. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is a similar group which supports the Democratic Party.

• New York state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018 (September 13)

See also: New York state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018

In the September 13 Democratic primaries, progressive challengers unseated six of the nine Democratic senators who helped keep Republicans in control of the state Senate in recent years. The senators who faced primary challenges included eight former members of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) and state Sen. Simcha Felder (D). The IDC caucused with Republicans from 2013 to 2018 and kept them in power even though Democrats often held a numerical majority. Felder caucused with Republicans too, but he was not an IDC member. In April 2018, Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) brokered a deal between IDC leader Jeffrey Klein and mainline Democratic leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins where the IDC was dissolved and the caucuses were reunified with Stewart-Cousins as leader and Klein as her deputy. In 2018, Republicans still control the chamber 32-31 with the continued support of Simcha Felder.

Despite the dissolution of the IDC, the primary challenges to its former members went forward. Challengers focused on affordable housing policies and criticized former IDC members for having kept Republicans in power. The challengers also said the new mainline Democratic-IDC alliance would not last. The reunification deal was meant to prohibit incumbent state senators from backing primary challenges against other incumbents. With the deal in place, Stewart-Cousins endorsed all former IDC members at the state Democratic convention in May, not their primary challengers. However, U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D), NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer (D), and NYC Council Speaker Corey Johnson (D) endorsed some of the challengers. Their endorsements came after Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, defeated U.S. Rep. Joe Crowley (D), the head of the Queens County Democratic Party, in the June 26 Democratic primary.

On September 13, former IDC leader Jeffrey Klein and former IDC members state Sen. Tony Avella, state Sen. Jose Peralta, state Sen. Jesse Hamilton, state Sen. Marisol Alcantara, and state Sen. David Valesky were all defeated. Simcha Felder and former IDC members Diane Savino and David Carlucci won their primaries. The state legislative primaries were concurrent with the Democratic gubernatorial primary where Cuomo defeated actress Cynthia Nixon. Nixon said Cuomo enabled the IDC because he preferred working with a Republican-controlled Senate, particularly on the state budget. Nixon specifically endorsed three of the successful challengers in their primaries and supported Ocasio-Cortez before her primary win against Crowley.

• Colorado governor (June 26)

See also: Colorado gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (June 26 Democratic primary)

Rep. Jared Polis defeated former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, former state Sen. Mike Johnston, and current Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne to win the Democratic primary for this purple state's highest office. While Kennedy was the first choice of 62 percent of delegates at the state party convention in April 2018, Polis received almost 45 percent of the vote to win, compared with Kennedy's 25 percent and Johnston's 23 percent. Polis faces a competitive general election against the Republican nominee, state Treasurer Walker Stapleton in a contest characterized by ratings outlets as either "Leans Democratic" or "Toss-up." Colorado has voted for the Democratic nominee in each of the last three presidential elections.

Polis led in most polls. He promised free preschool and kindergarten as well as energy independence by 2040. National political figures including Rep. John Lewis (D) and interest groups such as NORML PAC and the Sierra Club endorsed him. EMILY's List and labor unions such as the Communications Workers of America and the Colorado Education Association endorsed Kennedy, who called for increased funding for public schools and the creation of a public option for health insurance. Johnston supported providing two years of tuition-free community college to state residents, the establishment of a civilian work corps, and the expansion of Medicaid to all state citizens. Former Sen. Gary Hart (D) and former Gov. Dick Lamm (D) endorsed him. Lynne, a former insurance executive, ran on her private sector experience and her two years serving alongside term-limited Gov. John Hickenlooper (D).

• Minnesota governor (August 14)

See also: Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 14 Democratic primary)

A three-way battle for the Democratic nomination to succeed outgoing Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton (D) unfolded in Minnesota as state Rep. Erin Murphy, Rep. Tim Walz, and state Attorney General Lori Swanson sought the party's nod. Murphy earned the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota's endorsement at its annual convention, defeating Walz and state Auditor Rebecca Otto (D), who subsequently suspended her campaign. Murphy is backed by the Service Employees International Union-Minnesota and the AFSCME and served in the state House since 2006, including holding various leadership positions within the DFL caucus.

Walz has represented the Republican-leaning 1st Congressional District since 2007. His history of representing his swing district and his past opposition to firearms regulations were identified by political observers as factors in his convention defeat. He is backed by Education Minnesota, the state's largest labor union. Swanson was serving her third term as attorney general, having been first elected in 2006. Swanson withdrew from the nominating process for attorney general at the 2018 convention after she did not secure a majority in the first round of voting. She instead launched a campaign for governor the day before the filing deadline with Rep. Rick Nolan (D) as her running mate. On August 14, Walz won this primary with almost 42 percent of the vote.

• Virginia's 10th Congressional District (June 12)

See also: Virginia's 10th Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)

Six well-funded candidates competed in the Democratic primary for Virginia's 10th Congressional District—a swing seat that simultaneously backed Hillary Clinton (D) by 10 points in the 2016 presidential election and elected Republican incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock. Daily Kos identified Comstock as the eighth-most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the 2018 midterm elections, and it's likely Democrats had to win districts like this one to gain enough seats to win control of the House. Four candidates raised $800,000 or more through the first quarter of 2018: former senior State Department official Alison Kiehl Friedman (D), state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D), Army veteran Daniel Helmer (D), and former Obama administration official Lindsey Davis Stover.

Wexton received about 42 percent of the vote to win the primary. Friedman finished second with 23 percent, and Stover was third with 16 percent. The general election contest between Comstock and Wexton figures to be one of the most closely watched House races of this cycle.

Top 10 Republican Primaries race summaries

• Arizona Senate (August 28)

See also: United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R) defeated former state Sen. Kelli Ward (R) and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) in the three-way battle for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona on August 28, 2018. Incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R) did not seek re-election for this toss-up seat critical to Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate. McSally, Ward, and Arpaio all expressed strong support for President Donald Trump. Although this seat had been held by a Republican for more than two decades, Democrats identified it as a primary target, and The Hill named it one of the seats most likely to flip in 2018. The two primary ideological battlegrounds in the race were immigration policy and support for the Trump administration's agenda.

In addition to leading in polls released in July and August by double digits, McSally was supported by party leaders and top donors. During the primary, DefendArizona reserved $5 million in ad time for the general election for McSally. The Senate Leadership Fund was also briefly involved in the primary, spending five figures on an online campaign against Ward in 2017. Ward aligned with Trump’s immigration policy, penning an editorial in the Washington Examiner supporting the administration's zero-tolerance policy and separations. She noted that she also opposed amnesty. Arpaio, who has his own conservative base of followers, also emphasized his support for the president. Trump pardoned Arpaio in 2017 after he was convicted of criminal contempt for refusing to stop conduct in the sheriff’s office found to be discriminatory. Arpaio also wants to take his strict position on immigration enforcement to Washington, D.C.

• South Carolina's 1st Congressional District (June 12)

See also South Carolina's 1st Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

Incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford became the second Republican member of the U.S. House to lose his primary in 2018 after he was defeated by state Rep. Katie Arrington by a four percent margin in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District. Support for President Donald Trump (R) was one of the defining issues of the race. Sanford had been critical of Trump's rhetoric and policies, including Trump's policies on tariffs and trade, and Arrington used those comments as part of her campaigning strategy in the primary. Arrington was endorsed by Trump just hours before polls closed on June 12.

In his concession speech, Sanford said he didn't regret his positions regarding Trump: "It may have cost me an election in this case, but I stand by every one of those decisions to disagree with the president." The risks of opposing Trump were evident to other Republicans after Sanford's loss. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) said, "I think it's quite obvious that people don't like, you know, when somebody's overly critical of the President. I thought Mark was very principled. But you know, it will be interesting to see what it comes down to ultimately." Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA) stated that perhaps the issue was Sanford's criticism being so public, "I have some differences with the way we're handling tariffs, but I haven't gone out and aired those differences to the media first. I go to the White House, and there's been an open door and a dialogue going on." Outgoing Arizona Sen. Flake, who had also criticized the president publicly, stated, "This is Trump's party. We've all felt it. It was reiterated last night. If you want to win a Republican primary, you can't deviate much from the script. It's the President's script. You can't criticize policy or behavior."

• Florida governor (August 28)

See also: Florida gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 28 Republican primary)

Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) won the August 28 gubernatorial primary, defeating state agriculture commissioner Adam Putnam and six other candidates. DeSantis received 56.5 percent of the vote to Putnam's 36.5 percent. Current incumbent Gov. Rick Scott (R) was term-limited and is running for the U.S. Senate.

DeSantis, who led or tied in every poll conducted after the beginning of July 2018, had represented Florida's 6th Congressional District, which includes St. Augustine and Daytona Beach, since the 2012 election. President Trump (R), who carried the state by an 18 percent margin in the 2016 presidential primary, endorsed DeSantis. His other backers included Sean Hannity and Reps. Matt Gaetz (R) and Travis Cummings (R). Putnam was first elected as agriculture commissioner in 2010 after serving five terms in the U.S. House of Representatives and two in the Florida House of Representatives. In the race's early days, Putnam was seen by local political observers as a likely frontrunner. On the campaign trail, Putnam emphasized his connections to the state, describing himself as a fifth-generation Floridian who knows the state well. He was endorsed by state House Speaker Richard Corcoran (R) and the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

The two differed on style; DeSantis charged Putnam with supporting sugar industry interests and said that he had spent too much time in elected office, calling him "a career politician … who will say or do anything to get elected." Putnam accused DeSantis of lacking knowledge of the issues, comparing his campaign to the sitcom Seinfeld: "The campaign is being run out of a studio, they have a smattering of celebrity guest appearances, and it’s all about nothing. But, unlike Seinfeld, it’s not funny." There were eight total candidates on the ballot. Besides DeSantis and Putnam, they were Don Baldauf, Timothy Devine, Bob Langford, John Joseph Mercadante, Bruce Nathan, and Bob White.

• Georgia governor (May 22) and runoff (July 24)

See also: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (May 22 Republican primary) and Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (July 24 Republican primary runoff)

Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp were the top-two finishers in a five-candidate Republican primary on May 22. Cagle led the field with 39 percent of the vote and Kemp was second with 25.5 percent. Because no candidate reached 50 percent, the two will face off in a July 24 runoff. Cagle consistently led in polling before May 22, leaving Kemp and former state Sen. Hunter Hill to battle for the second position in the runoff. According to Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Cagle decided that he would rather face Kemp in the runoff, so he directed his campaign attacks against Hill in the final weeks of the campaign. Hill finished in third place with 18.3 percent of the vote. The candidates attacked each other over policy disputes, personal ethics, and professional competence.

Secretary of State Brian Kemp defeated Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle in the July 24 Republican runoff for Georgia's governorship, receiving 69 percent of the vote. President Donald Trump endorsed Kemp on July 18, and Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for him on July 21. The three Republican candidates who did not advance from the May 22 Republican primary—Hunter Hill, Clay Tippins, and Michael Williams—also endorsed Kemp. Term-limited incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal (R) endorsed Cagle on July 16, saying he was the best candidate to continue his legacy as governor. Cagle argued he was the only candidate who could beat Abrams in the general election.Kemp faced former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in the general election to replace Deal. Abrams is the first female gubernatorial nominee in Georgia history and the first black female gubernatorial nominee in U.S. history.

Cagle aired campaign ads drawing attention to Kemp’s record and calling him incompetent. Cagle said Kemp was responsible for the accidental release of Georgia voter data to media outlets in 2015, did not repay loans he guaranteed for an agricultural company, accepted illegal campaign contributions from businesses he regulated, and was not a vocal supporter of Donald Trump in 2016. Before the May primary, Cagle primarily emphasized his record as lieutenant governor and plans to cut taxes and create jobs. Kemp criticized Cagle after Clay Tippins, one of the candidates defeated in the May 22 primary, released a secretly-recorded conversation with Cagle. In the recording, Cagle said he pushed for passage of an education bill he opposed to reduce the chance fellow candidate Hunter Hill (R) would receive financial support from a pro-school choice group. Kemp also said that Cagle was mostly funded by special interest groups and lobbyists, improperly used a state airplane at taxpayer expense, and would try to legalize casino gambling if elected governor. During the primary campaign, Kemp said he wanted to put Georgia's focus on the needs of the rural parts of the state rather than metro Atlanta, and his ads emphasized his positions on immigration and gun policy.

• Kansas governor (August 7)

See also: Kansas gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 7 Republican primary)

In his bid for a first full term after succeeding former Gov. Sam Brownback (R) in January2018, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) faced six challengers in the August Republican primary. He and top challenger Kris Kobach, Kansas' secretary of state, presented voters with both policy and style differences against the backdrop of two significant events from 2017: the state legislature's reversal of several tax cuts enacted by Brownback in 2012 and the Kansas Supreme Court's ruling that the state's school financing formula was unconstitutional. Kobach spoke out against the 2017 tax cut repeal. He argued that the Brownback administration (including Colyer) erred in reducing taxes without sufficiently reducing spending. Colyer's campaign said that he would consider signing legislation to reduce taxes if brought to his desk and that, as lieutenant governor, he reduced spending while increasing services within the state's Medicaid system.

Formerly Brownback's lieutenant governor, Colyer became governor after Brownback's confirmation as U.S. ambassador at-large for international religious freedom. Colyer highlighted his experience in the Reagan and Bush Sr. administrations, while Kobach touted his ties to Donald Trump, including an endorsement from Donald Trump Jr., who campaigned on Kobach's behalf.

Over 300,000 votes were cast among the seven candidates in the Republican primary. After all precincts reported results on August 7, Kobach led Colyer by less than 200 votes, with thousands of provisional ballots still uncounted. On August 14, 2018, Colyer conceded to Kobach. As of the concession, Kobach led Colyer by a 312-vote margin. The Republican primary winner will face Democratic state Senator Laura Kelly and independent candidate Greg Orman in the general election.

• Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

Nine Republican candidates battled to replace former Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R), who resigned from office in January 2018 to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable. State Sen. Troy Balderson (R) and businesswoman Melanie Leneghan (R) received the most political and financial support, but State Sen. Kevin Bacon (R), former Air Force intelligence officer Tim Kane (R), and prosecutor Carol O'Brien (R) were also competitive in fundraising.

Balderson received Tiberi's endorsement, as well as a $240,000 cable and digital ad buy from Defending Main Street in April 2018. Leneghan was backed by the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), and House Freedom Action, the campaign arm of the House Freedom Caucus, which supported her with a $187,000 ad campaign. Club for Growth spent $150,000 on an ad alleging that Balderson voted to support the Affordable Care Act in Ohio, which the Balderson campaign called a "blatant falsehood" since the state Senate did not directly vote on the expansion of Medicaid.

Balderson finished ahead of Leneghan by about 650 votes to win this primary, 29 percent to 28 percent. He faced Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D), who won the Democratic primary, in the special election for this seat on August 7, 2018. The race was too close to call for nearly three weeks as more than 8,400 absentee and provisional ballots were counted. Balderson was officially declared the winner on August 24 by less than one percentage point. He faced O'Connor again in the regularly scheduled general election on November 6, 2018.

• Wyoming governor (August 21)

See also: Wyoming gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 21 Republican primary)

State Treasurer Mark Gordon defeated five candidates for the chance to replace term-limited Gov. Matt Mead (R) in what may have been the most expensive Republican gubernatorial primary in Wyoming history. Gordon was the only Republican primary candidate who had served in elected office. His campaign messaging focused on his time as treasurer; he stated that he "grew state investments by $1.17 billion over the 2016-2017 fiscal year." He was second in fundraising with $2.1 million raised. Gordon received 33.4 percent of the vote while Republican donor Foster Friess was second with 25.6 percent.

Gordon and businessman Sam Galeotos were in competition for moderate Republican votes, according to Arno Rosenfeld of the Casper Star-Tribune, and attorney Harriet Hageman and Friess may have been vying for more conservative voters. Businessman Bill Dahlin and former surgeon and rancher Taylor Haynes also ran in the primary race. The seat was rated as Safe Republican by three major political publications.

Friess was endorsed by President Donald Trump on the day of the primary. He entered the race in April 2018, saying he would spend "whatever it takes." Finance reports through August 7 showed him with the most contributions at $2.5 million, $2.2 million of which he donated to his campaign. Friess said in his candidacy announcement that he would use his contacts to bring companies to the state. Freiss' loss represented the first instance in 2018 where a candidate [by Trump] was defeated in a Republican primary.

• Minnesota's 1st Congressional District (August 14)

See also Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Republican primary)

In his fourth attempt for the seat, 2016 nominee Jim Hagedorn defeated state Sen. Carla Nelson in the Republican primary for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District. Although the district went for President Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election by 15 points, the Democratic incumbent held on to his seat by less than a percentage point. Daily Kos identified this district as the most vulnerable Democratic House seat. Hagedorn will face former Obama administration official Dan Feehan (D) in the general election.

Hagedorn lost to incumbent Rep. Tim Walz (D) by less than 2,500 votes in 2016, and Walz elected to run for governor this cycle. Hagedorn compared himself to Reps. John Kline (R-Minn.) and Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), who each ran three or more times before being elected in the state. He aligned himself with Trump and emphasized the farming economy, energy, and national security in his campaign. He also earned the district party’s endorsements at its convention in April.

Nelson, who had served in the state Senate since 2011, was endorsed by the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony List and reportedly encouraged to run for the seat by national party leaders. State party officials were less supportive, concerned they could lose control of the state Senate if a special election was called to fill her seat in a toss-up district. Nelson's campaign has focused on healthcare, the federal budget, and education policies. Andrew Candler (R) and Steve Williams (R) also ran for the seat.

• Texas state legislative Republican primaries (March 6 and May 22)

See also: Texas state legislative Republican primaries, 2018

The conflict in the state House Republican primaries was between a faction supportive of House Speaker Joe Straus (R) and those opposed to his leadership, including members of the Texas Freedom Caucus. Conflict in the state Senate Republican primaries fell along similar lines, although the anti-Straus faction already had control in that chamber partially due to the leadership of Lieutenant Gov. Dan Patrick (R). Straus announced his retirement in October 2017, setting up a contest to elect the next speaker of the state House in 2019. Both the pro-Straus and anti-Straus factions are likely to run candidates in the speaker's race, meaning the 2018 primaries could have been pivotal in deciding which faction would have more influence after the 2018 elections.

Straus was first elected speaker in 2009 by a coalition of his allies in the Republican Party and House Democrats. At that time, the House was nearly evenly divided, allowing all Democrats to vote with a small group of Republicans to elect Straus. By 2017, the Republican majority in the House had grown to 94-56 and Straus remained speaker, which allowed him to appoint members and chairs of committees as well as refer legislation to committees. Opposition to Straus' leadership grew in 2017, especially after he and his allies attempted to block priorities of Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Lieutenant Gov. Dan Patrick (R) in a special session. These priorities included a bill that would regulate bathroom usage in Texas, legislation related to property taxes, and an education funding bill, which eventually passed. With members of his caucus, including the 12 members of the Texas Freedom Caucus, planning a challenge of his leadership following the 2018 elections, Straus announced his retirement in October 2017.

With Straus' leadership position open, his allies and his opponents faced off in the 2018 primaries to see which side will have more influence in the 2019 speaker's election. The anti-Straus faction of the Republican Party in Texas defeated three pro-Straus incumbents in the March 6 primaries, with state Sen. Craig Estes and state Reps. Wayne Faircloth and Jason Villalba all losing. The pro-Straus faction won key matchups in four state House districts. Each side won three races without sitting incumbents. In runoff elections held on May 22, pro-Straus candidates defeated anti-Straus candidates in five of seven contests. The other two runoffs saw an incumbent lose to a challenger with an unknown factional affiliation, and an anti-Straus candidate beat an unaffiliated candidate to take on state Rep. Victoria Neave (D) in the general election. Overall, four Republican incumbents lost in 2018. This was fewer than in 2016 (six losses) and 2014 (nine losses).

• Michigan's 11th Congressional District (August 7)

See also Michigan's 11th Congressional District election (August 7, 2018 Republican primary)

Michigan Republicans chose businesswoman Lena Epstein on August 7 to defend the suburban Detroit seat being vacated by David Trott (R). Epstein finished first in the five-candidate field with almost 31 percent of the vote. Former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski was second and state Sen. Mike Kowall came in third. Donald Trump (R) and Mitt Romney (R) carried the district in 2016 and 2012, respectively, but Barack Obama won here in 2008, and three election forecasters have rated it as a Toss-up in November. Epstein was the top fundraiser, bringing in more than $1.6 million through contributions and self-funding. She was a co-chair of Trump’s 2016 Michigan campaign and emphasized her opposition to DACA recipients receiving a pathway to citizenship as well as her support for repealing the Affordable Care Act and maintaining the U.S.-Israeli relationship.

Raczkowski said he would be an accessible congressman for his constituents and held nearly 60 townhalls while on the campaign trail. Kowall received the most endorsements and was the choice of the local Republican establishment according to the Detroit Free Press. He also supported limiting Russian economic expansion and criticized Trump for calling Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "weak" after the June 2018 G-7 Summit.

State Rep. Klint Kesto, the second-highest fundraiser, finished fourth. He headed up the state House's effort to respond to revelations that Dr. Larry Nassar sexually abused hundreds of gymnasts while working at Michigan State University. Kerry Bentivolio, who represented the 11st District for one term before being defeated by Trott in a Republican primary, was fifth with 11 percent. He said he was an effective representative and wanted to bring a common person's voice to Congress.

Methodology

Our seat rankings reflect a subjective assessment, based primarily on two factors:

• Whether the nature or result of a primary provides an indication as to the direction of the party or the relative strength of various factions within the party in that state or district,
• The extent to which the outcome of a primary impacts the party’s chances for that seat in the November elections.

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