Champions fear nobody and do not settle for second best... and neither should England at the World Cup

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The net had barely received Harry Kane’s second penalty of the afternoon when the calculations began. England, it seemed, were on their way to topping the group. Oh, the calamity; oh, the irony. England were too good for their own good.

Second is the new first, you see. Second is where it’s at these days. Nobody is coming first any more. That’s so last tournament. Sure, in 2014, England would have sold their collective grandmothers for first. It’s just that four years later, second is first and first is nowhere. That’s why Gareth Southgate isn’t as smart as he thinks he is. If he was really sharp, he would not win the group.

Begin eye-rolling sequence now. Only England could do this. Tournament after tournament, yearning for success, yearning for a good start, feverishly imagining the sort of thumping wins that are traditionally the preserve of World Cup contenders.

England top Group G after thrashing Panama - but some say it would be better to come second

Then we get one. But now it’s the wrong kind of victory. It’s too much, that victory. It’s too big. We’ve overdone it. Why can’t we be more like Germany? There’s a country that knows how to lose.

Wizards of precognition have looked at the schedule, calculated precisely the results of 11 football matches — because anyone who has ever tried to land a six-team accumulator knows how easy that is — and as a result can safely announce that England would be mugs to win Group G and the clever move would be to get beaten by Belgium and claim second place.

This, it is calculated, would deftly avoid Colombia, Brazil and Germany and instead give England a passage to the final involving meetings with the Isle of Sheppey, the home furnishings department of Harvey Nichols and Aston Villa. It is, of course, nonsense. To accurately plot England’s route at this stage would require a correct guess at South Korea v Germany, Mexico v Sweden, Serbia v Brazil, Switzerland v Costa Rica, Japan v Poland, Senegal v Colombia, England v Belgium, 1E v 2F, 1G v 2H, 1F v 2E, and 1H v 2G.

Take any run of fixtures in this tournament and see how far you get before reaching a match outcome that could not, logically, have been predicted.

However Gareth Southgate's England should not settle for second best in their group

It is six games in before Argentina draw 1-1 with Iceland; another four before Mexico 1 Germany 0; in the next game Brazil and Switzerland draw 1-1; after another three, Japan 2 Colombia 1; count off six to Australia’s draw with Denmark; two games and Croatia 3 Argentina 0. And this doesn’t include marginal calls — is it a surprise Japan drew 2-2 with Senegal — or expectation-shifting margins such as England’s 6-1 win over Panama.

Nobody thought England could match Belgium’s goal difference going into that game. They had to achieve their record World Cup win, which they did.

The theory that second is best banks on Brazil sweeping aside Serbia — when they took until stoppage time to overcome Costa Rica — to win Group E, while Mexico draw with or beat Sweden to win Group F and leave Germany in second place. Brazil and Germany then meet in the last 16, with the winner going on to play the winner of England’s group.

In the meantime, runner-up in Group G plays the winner of F1 and 2E, which is calculated to be Mexico or Switzerland.

It gets better. As it stands in Group H, Japan and Senegal have four points, Colombia three, with Poland out. Japan have only Poland to play, so are tipped to top the table, with Colombia edging Senegal in a final-game shootout.

So, second place in England’s group gets Japan, then the winners of Mexico and Switzerland, while the winners may face Colombia, whose 3-0 win over Poland on Sunday night is among the best performances of the tournament, and one of Germany or Brazil. Yet what if Japan and Poland is a draw and Colombia win? What if Brazil stuff up against Serbia? Then it’s all change. As it can be if any of these results go astray.

The idea is that second place would mean England could avoid the likes of Colombia

England versus Belgium is in the final round of group games, so the teams will know exactly the pathway to the final, too. And this would be fine if England started training and preparing two hours before that last game. But today and tomorrow, Gareth Southgate has to work with the XI that will start in Kaliningrad on Thursday.

What is he to do? Pick a team based on best guesses of results elsewhere and plan to fail, on that basis?

Anyone who imagines England should happily lose to Belgium on Thursday has not thought through the complications of achieving that aim. What, for instance, would Southgate tell his players? That defeat is the target and he knows just the men for the job? Unless England’s manager states an intention to win, being selected for that team is as good as being branded a liability. He could alienate half his squad in one team-sheet.

However, as Germany v Mexico proved, it is foolish to try and predict too many results

Resting players? Now that is a different matter. It may be possible for Southgate to maintain England’s excellent momentum without running his starting XI into the ground. Were England to win Group G, for instance, there would be less than four days before their round of 16 game in Rostov-on-Don.

He has to keep one eye on the physical capabilities of his team, on fitness issues, on those whose exertions were greatest in the heat of Nizhny Novgorod.

He will make some changes, as Belgium coach Roberto Martinez also will. He may choose to keep the goalkeeper and the back three, affording growing understanding, although there is a case for starting Gary Cahill, who would probably be the first defensive promotion in the event of injury or suspension.

Kieran Trippier played with heavy strapping against Panama and could perhaps do with a rest. Trent Alexander-Arnold is yet to have a taste of the tournament, while Danny Rose needs to improve match fitness and could come in for Ashley Young.

Jordan Henderson has been outstanding in the first two matches and has worked tirelessly. All the more reason, then, to let Eric Dier take his place, or maybe Fabian Delph if Southgate demands more creativity from his pivot.

Jesse Lingard is another who has put in an exceptional shift and it would make sense to start Marcus Rashford in his place.

If Dele Alli needs more recovery time, Southgate could persevere with Ruben Loftus-Cheek although he was the least impressive of England’s forwards against Panama.

That leaves two puzzles: Raheem Sterling and Kane. There is no easy answer in either case.

England could still make changes for Belgium - Trent Alexander-Arnold may get a start

The negative reactions that have followed Sterling at this tournament are not reflected in his performances. Alone among England’s players, he appears unable to find love at home.

The BBC conduct a player rating system after every game, and millions take part. In both games, Sterling has been the lowest marked England player.

Against Panama, a game in which he made two assists, including a perfectly-weighted one-two for Jesse Lingard’s goal, he scored 5.3, lower even than England’s three substitutes, Jamie Vardy, Delph and Rose, who featured in a period of the game that Panama won 1-0.

Mind you, it was an improvement on his rating against Tunisia, when he scored lower than any opposition player, too. This is ridiculous. Sterling hasn’t set the tournament alight but he is far from England’s worst player — and he is certainly better than anything Tunisia have.

Southgate resisted the temptation to leave him out against Panama and may do so again, if he feels Sterling needs to play his way into Manchester City form and requires an endorsement from the management that he is not getting from outside the camp.

The big question for Southgate is whether to give Raheem Sterling another opportunity

Then there is Kane, who has designs on the Golden Boot award, is the captain of the team, and will clearly want to play against Belgium, even for selfish reasons. Southgate may feel he should rest his most important player before the first knockout game, but what will that do to Kane’s confidence and his momentum?

A look at Kane’s record shows that, like most strikers, he scores in flurries. For club and country, he found the target in one of his first five games this season, then in seven of his next eight; he scored in one of six, then four of his next five; two of six, then nine of 10.

He scored in three of 10 games between March 3 and May 5, but his current run, which begins on May 9 against Newcastle, involves him scoring in five consecutive matches for Tottenham and England, with a total of nine goals in that spell.

Does Southgate really want to interrupt that form? Does he risk removing Kane from the fray when he is in such incredible nick? His penalties against Panama were spectacularly assured. And the fact that he completed a freakish hat-trick off a heel while not even looking at the goal will only convince a superstitious striker — and there really is no other kind — that this is his time.

Southgate may rest Kane, although the captain currently leads the golden boot rankings

So it is essential Southgate gets the balance right on Thursday. Roy Hodgson made too many changes against Slovakia at the 2016 European Championship and sacrificed the emotional fillip of a late win against Wales.

This is not why England lost to Iceland, but we will never know if momentum could have been maintained with less upheaval. Hodgson made six changes against Slovakia. It would seem more reasonable for Southgate to make four or five maximum here.

If England lose, they lose — and, who knows, there may be a bizarre benefit to that if results go a certain way. Yet there is no guarantee defeat will come easily.

Rashford will be desperate to show he can be more than an impact substitute; Dier will want to challenge or, at least, accompany Henderson in the centre of midfield as England face tougher tests in the knockout stages. Changes do not mean a Belgium win is assured.

It is the idea defeat is preferable that should be resisted. That there is some clever game to be played, and Southgate can carefully manage a purposefully second-rate performance.

Germany, contrary to popular wisdom, would not do that. Germany fear no-one and try to win every game. That’s why they’re champions.

In any case, there is no way that Southgate should try and earn anything other than a win

Rejoice! England have knocked out thugs and opportunists 

Some countries, and players, out after the first two matches will be missed. We would have liked to see more of Robert Lewandowski and, certainly, Mohamed Salah, for instance. Yet no tears will be shed for the nations that exited England’s group.

Panama were thuggish and brutal, which undermined the romantic notion of their first World Cup journey, while Tunisia arrived here having opportunistically parachuted in foreign nationals with familial connections.

There were four French players who only signed up in March, while Rani Khedira — brother of Germany World Cup winner Sami — and Wissam Ben Yedder of Sevilla, the striker who eliminated Manchester United from the Champions League this season, turned them down.

They lost both games and went out anyway. Better to have stuck with the players who got them to Russia, surely.

No tears will be shed for Tunisia, or Panama, after England knocked them out the World Cup

Now let refs get a grip on grapplers 

With luck, referee Gehad Grisha of Egypt has set a precedent regarding grappling in the box at this World Cup. His decision to award England a penalty in the face of persistent, flagrant manhandling by Panama’s defenders has to be the new standard if the tournament is not to descend into chaos.

What happened to Aleksandar Mitrovic when Serbia played Switzerland on Friday was ridiculous. His movement was restricted by two players, one holding him across the chest, the other at the waist. Unchecked, this behaviour has escalated. First players were held, then thrown to the ground. This, in a tournament that has access to VAR, has threatened to turn corners and free-kicks into farcical sideshows.

Grisha addressed that, eventually. Slow to act, at first, he was clearly concerned that Panama were resorting to increasingly extreme tactics, thinking they would get away with it. The penalty decision was progress, but Grisha should not be left on a limb. 

His judgment will only be meaningful if it is replicated in matches from here. Anything not stopped is encouraged, and to this point FIFA had as good as given defenders permission to cheat. This must stop, now.

Gehad Grisha was impressively no-nonsense when it came to Panama's physical play

England have been practising penalties for weeks — and who can say whether that contributed to Harry Kane’s confidence from the spot against Panama on Sunday? He may have been striking them like that in training from day one.

It was, however, quite the most impressive hit from an English boot at a tournament in many years — reminiscent of Cristiano Ronaldo’s last-minute penalty winner for Real Madrid against Juventus in the Champions League this season. If repetition in training has played a part in that, credit is due to Gareth Southgate.

The biggest influence on his managerial career, Terry Venables, had a saying. ‘Practice doesn’t make perfect,’ he would insist. ‘Practice makes permanent.’

The more you work at a skill, the more it becomes second nature. That is what it looked like for Kane against Panama. We must hope there are four others like him, at least.

Southgate looks to have followed Terry Venables in his approach to practicing penalties

Choc horror at McLaren 

Staff at McLaren are upset at 25p chocolate bars being handed out for good work. Despite an annual budget of £200million, the cheap treats are given as rewards for professionalism — completion of a package upgrade on a tight schedule, for instance.

It really is the most appalling man-management. Either regard engineering under time pressure as part of the job with no bonus required, or deliver something meaningful. To treat staff like primary school children on the last day of term is an insult.

Staff at McLaren have been treated appallingly with 25p Freddos offered as work rewards