Don’t say stocks are being pushed down by treasuries. That’s a mistaken assertion based on the rally in stocks and the decline in yields both in the past
On the heels of an improvement in consumer confidence as shown in the preliminary University of Michigan report, the Conference Board report showed weakness. As the chart below
The yield curve is important because not only is it an economic indicator, it also impacts the economy. The banks’ ability to conduct normal operations where they lend
The biggest story on Friday was that the spread between the 10 year yield and the 3 month yield went negative which means the yield curve inverted. The
Despite the late selloff on Friday, it’s safe to say investors buying stocks at current levels believe the decline in earnings will begin and end in Q1 2019.
At its March meeting, the Fed did exactly what most prognosticators expected it to do as it didn’t raise rates, it lowered 2019 hike guidance from two to
Extraordinary Rally, Stagnant EPS Estimates The S&P 500 has been on an amazing run as it has increased 20.5% since the Christmas Eve bottom. It is up 1.74%
Stocks Versus Treasuries The most interesting action in markets is the relationship between stocks and treasuries because stocks are acting as though the economy is ready to rally
Back in the summer of 2018, inflation estimates were riding high as economists expected the Fed to hike rates 3 times in 2019. Everything changed when the economy
Since this article will include a discussion on income/wealth inequality, let’s start off with student debt, which went from an innocuous issue to one of the main driving
The all important February CPI report showed both headline and core inflation fell. That partially explains why stocks and treasuries have rallied this year. Treasury yields have embedded
The chart below is probably the best depiction of the labor market because it includes hours worked, hourly pay growth, and the number of employed people. Aggregate Income
February’s headline job creation of only 20,000 was a disaster as it missed Bloomberg’s estimate by 160,000 jobs which is the biggest miss since November 2008 which was
There is a lot of misinformation on buybacks because they have become a political football. They get the blame for low productivity growth and CEOs making a high
In theory, if the labor market gets to full employment in the next few quarters and there isn’t an immediate recession, the economy will be limited by the
Considering how weak the December housing market was, it’s nice to see new home sales of 621,000 which beat estimates for 590,000 and November’s reading of 599,000. November’s
The stock market had a major bottom on Christmas Eve as the Fed turned dovish and investors realized a recession wasn’t in the immediate future. The extraordinary rally
This article will mostly consist of economic analysis, but we would be remiss to ignore the latest stock market rally for 2 reasons. First, economic analysis is partially
Housing price growth according to Zillow’s estimate is expected to be 4.4% in January which would be the lowest growth since July 2015. Investors must be wondering when
It’s very easy to get caught up in the housing bubble talk because many indicators in November and December showed weakness and the last cycle ended with a
Investors are expecting the Fed to end QT by the end of 2019, but the Fed’s Minutes from the January meeting only mentioned that it would provide guidance
The stock market is at a very interesting juncture because its rally has been impenetrable despite the global economic slowdown. The 20% decline late last year probably wasn’t
The most important aspect of the economy is inflation because low inflation allowed the Fed to turn dovish which helped reverse last year’s bear market. If the Fed
Index fund investing has become very popular in the past few years as investors love their low fees and hate how most fund managers underperform the market. There
