41 days
until the third debate
459 days
until Election Day

Each week, The Times is bringing you the latest political data and analysis to track how the 24 Democratic presidential candidates are doing and who is breaking out of the pack in the historic race for the 2020 nomination.

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Current State of the Race

Qualifies for the third debate*
National polling averagePolling Average
Individual contributions†Individual contrib.†
Weekly news coverageWeekly media
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
30% $22.0m #1
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
14% $25.2m #4
Bernie SandersSanders
14% $36.2m #5
Kamala HarrisHarris
12% $23.8m #2
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
6% $32.3m #7
Andrew YangYang
2% $5.2m #14
Beto O’RourkeO’Rourke
2% $13.0m #9
Cory BookerBooker
2% $9.5m #3
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
2% $9.1m #12
Julián CastroCastro
< 1% $4.1m #10
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
< 1% $3.2m #20
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
< 1% $3.1m #16
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
< 1% $3.5m #13
Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
< 1% $5.3m #10
Bill de Blasiode Blasio
< 1% $1.1m #8
John DelaneyDelaney
< 1% $2.0m #19
Tom SteyerSteyer
< 1% #6
Michael BennetBennet
< 1% $2.8m #17
Tim RyanRyan
< 1% $0.9m #18
Jay InsleeInslee
< 1% $5.3m #23
Steve BullockBullock
< 1% $2.1m #15
Wayne MessamMessam
0% < $0.1m #23
Seth MoultonMoulton
0% $1.2m #20
Joe SestakSestak
0% #20
+ View all candidates
* Meets polling and donor thresholds set by the Democratic National Committee.
† Campaign finance data through June 30.
Arrows show change in value or rank over the last week.

Here’s the latest.

Aug. 2, 2019

The second round of 2020 primary debates may have done more to deepen the existing dynamics of the Democratic race than to transform them. Joseph R. Biden Jr. gave an unsteady performance but avoided another debate-stage fiasco, and held his own in a new set of clashes with Kamala Harris. Mr. Biden is unlikely to see his support abruptly collapse in the long, debate-less month of August, but neither has he clearly restored the aura of electoral strength that surrounded him at the outset of his campaign.

A third candidate who joined Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris on stage is worth watching closely: Cory Booker, who has been building a methodical campaign in the early primary states, finally had a moment of televised sizzle, taking on Mr. Biden for his record on criminal justice and branding himself as the best person to mobilize black voters in the Midwest against Mr. Trump.

Mr. Booker was the third-most talked about candidate on television last week – potentially a leading indicator of other developing strengths in the race.

Having avoided direct confrontation altogether in the first of the two back-to-back debates in Detroit, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders appear to be headed into the summer lull with a familiar dynamic in place as they compete for votes on the left. Ms. Warren has been slowly climbing in the polls, in part at Mr. Sanders’s expense, but it remains to be seen if that dynamic will continue after the debates in Detroit.

Most of the rest of the presidential field will be spending the coming weeks straining to qualify for the next round of debates in September. More than a dozen candidates have not yet met that threshold, and most are not expected to do so. Besides the five candidates who were most prominent in the news last week, only Pete Buttigieg, Beto O’Rourke and Amy Klobuchar are certain to be on stage the next time the candidates gather. Both of them had already qualified before turning in relatively muted performances in Detroit.

— Alexander Burns

Data through Aug. 1

Who Is Leading the Polls?

National polls are a flawed tool for predicting elections. That’s even truer in a primary that will unfold in stages, with one or several states voting at a time. But the broad national picture is still important, offering a sense of which candidates are gaining support overall.

Candidate polling average

Individual polls shown on hover

Individual polls shown on tap

Latest National Polls

Pollster Date Biden Warren Sanders Harris Buttigieg
Quinnipiac 7/25 – 7/28 34 15 11 12 6
Fox News 7/21 – 7/23 33 12 15 10 5
NBC News/SurveyMonkey 7/2 – 7/16 25 16 16 14 8
NBC News/Wall Street Journal 7/7 – 7/9 26 19 13 13 7
Reuters/Ipsos 6/29 – 7/2 24 11 17 11 4
The New York Times polling averages use pollsters approved by the D.N.C. for debate inclusion requirements. Polls conducted more recently and polls with a larger sample size are given greater weight in computing the averages. Data is for registered voters or likely voters, depending on the poll. See the full list of D.N.C.-approved pollsters here.

Remember, political fortunes can shift rapidly in a national campaign.

On Aug. 2 in previous election cycles ...

Primary Polling leader Eventual nominee?
2016 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2016 Republicans Donald J. Trump
2012 Republicans Mitt Romney
2008 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2008 Republicans Rudy Giuliani
Source: RealClearPolitics

We are keeping an eye on state-level polling, too, especially in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Latest Polls in Early Voting States

Iowa 7/9 – 7/18 CBS News/YouGov N.H. 7/9 – 7/18 CBS News/YouGov Nev. 6/6 – 6/11 Monmouth
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
24 27 36
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
17 18 19
Bernie SandersSanders
19 20 13
Kamala HarrisHarris
16 12 6
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
7 7 7
Andrew YangYang
0 1 2
Beto O’RourkeO’Rourke
1 2 2
Cory BookerBooker
3 1 2
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
4 1 1
Julián CastroCastro
2 1 1
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
1 1 <1
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
0 0 1
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
0 2 1
Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
1 1 0
Bill de Blasiode Blasio
0 0 0
John DelaneyDelaney
1 1 0
Tom SteyerSteyer
2 1
Michael BennetBennet
0 0 0
Tim RyanRyan
0 0 <1
Jay InsleeInslee
0 0 <1
Steve BullockBullock
0 0 <1
Wayne MessamMessam
0 0 <1
Seth MoultonMoulton
0 0 0
Joe SestakSestak
1 0
+ View all candidates
Data through June 30

Who Is Leading the Money Race?

Presidential campaigns are expensive, and candidates’ ability to compete often depends on their prowess at collecting large sums of money. Candidates used to focus on courting a few thousand wealthy individuals; many now spend more time raising money in small increments from millions of people online.

These statistics show which candidates are inspiring financial enthusiasm, either from a cluster of deep-pocketed donors or from a larger army of supporters. We only get an occasional glimpse at these numbers, however, since candidates file fund-raising reports on a quarterly basis. See full fund-raising numbers here »

Contributions,
April-June
Contributions,
April-June
Contributions,
through March
Contributions,
through March
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
$24.9m
$7.1m
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
$22.0m
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
$19.2m
$6.0m
Bernie SandersSanders
$18.0m
$18.2m
Kamala HarrisHarris
$11.8m
$12.0m
Cory BookerBooker
$4.5m
$5.0m
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
$3.9m
$5.2m
Beto O’RourkeO’Rourke
$3.6m
$9.4m
Jay InsleeInslee
$3.0m
$2.3m
Andrew YangYang
$2.8m
$2.4m
Michael BennetBennet
$2.8m
Julián CastroCastro
$2.8m
$1.3m
Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
$2.3m
$3.0m
Steve BullockBullock
$2.1m
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
$1.6m
$1.9m
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
$1.5m
$1.5m
Seth MoultonMoulton
$1.2m
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
$1.1m
$2.0m
Bill de Blasiode Blasio
$1.1m
Tim RyanRyan
$0.9m
John DelaneyDelaney
$0.3m
$1.7m
Wayne MessamMessam
< $0.1m
< $0.1m
Joe SestakSestak
Tom SteyerSteyer
+ View all candidates
Source: Federal Election Commission ·Candidates in the chart without donation numbers joined the race after the financial disclosure reporting deadline. Current numbers are as of June 30. The next filing deadline is Oct. 15.
Data through July 31

Who Is Getting News Coverage?

A candidate’s ability to make news and draw the attention of voters — and cameras — is a major asset in any campaign. This statistic tracks which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the wider media.

Being talked about isn’t always a good thing: It can also mean a candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information from his or her past.

Total Mentions in 2019

CNN
Fox News
MSNBC
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
35,587
Bernie SandersSanders
16,007
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
12,875
Kamala HarrisHarris
12,267
Beto O’RourkeO’Rourke
6,037
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
5,136
Cory BookerBooker
5,082
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
2,392
Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
1,649
Julián CastroCastro
1,452
Bill de Blasiode Blasio
1,251
Tim RyanRyan
850
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
672
Jay InsleeInslee
671
Tom SteyerSteyer
634
John DelaneyDelaney
624
Steve BullockBullock
586
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
511
Andrew YangYang
509
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
389
Michael BennetBennet
353
Seth MoultonMoulton
301
Wayne MessamMessam
25
Joe SestakSestak
7
+ View all candidates
Source: Internet Archive's Television News Archive via The GDELT Project. ·Mentions are the number of 15-second clips in which a candidate’s full name is mentioned on any of the three cable news networks. A more detailed methodology can be found here.

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Key Dates

2019
Sept. 12-13 Third primary debates
2020
Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses
July 13-16 Democratic National Convention
Nov. 3 Election Day