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Energy and the environment explained Outlook for future emissions

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions are projected to decrease

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from U.S. energy consumption will remain near 2018 levels through 2050, according to projections in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2019 (AEO2019). The AEO2019 Reference case, which reflects no changes to current laws and regulations and extends current trends in technology, projects that U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions will be 5,019 million metric tons in 2050, or 4% below their 2018 value, as emissions associated with coal and petroleum consumption fall and emissions from natural gas consumption rise.

Line graph showing projected U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2050 in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2019 Reference case.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, Annual Energy Outlook 2019, January 2019

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World carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase

EIA projects that global energy-related CO2 emissions will continue to grow in the coming decades. EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2019 Reference case projects that global energy-related CO2 emissions will grow 0.6% per year from 2018 to 2050. However, projected future growth in energy-related CO2 emissions is not evenly distributed across the world: relatively developed economies collectively have no emissions growth, so all of the projected future growth in energy-related CO2 emissions is among the group of countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Line graph showing projected world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2050 for OECD and non-OECD countries in EIA's International Energy Outlook 2019 Reference case.

Note: OECD is Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019, September 2019

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Last updated: October 29, 2019