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Chapter 7
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Figure 7.1 Domestic public debt as a share of total debt: All countries, 1900-2007
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Figure 7.2 Domestic public debt as a share of total debt: Advanced economies, 1900-2007
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Figure 7.3 Domestic public debt as a share of total debt: Emerging market economies, 1900-2007
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105
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Figure 7.4 Share of domestic debt that is long term: All countries and Latin America, 1914-1959
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106
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Figure 7.5 Sovereign domestic debt, percent of countries in default or restructuring, 1900-2008
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Table 7.1 Interest rates on domestic and external debt, 1928-1946
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Table 7.2 Episodes of domestic debt default or restructuring , 1750-1921
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Table 7.3 Selected episodes of domestic debt default or restructuring, late 1920s-1950s
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Table 7.4 Selected episodes of domestic debt default or restructuring, 1970-2008
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Chapter 8
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Figure 8.1 Ratios of public debt to revenue during external default: Eighty-nine episodes, 1827-2003
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Figure 8.2 Ratios of public debt to revenue during external default: Frequency of occurrence, 1827-2003
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Figure 8.3 Ratios of public debt to revenue during external default: Cumulative frequency of occurrence, 1827-2003
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Figure 8.4 the run-up in domestic and external debt on the eve of external default: Eighty-nine episodes, 1827-2003
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Figure 8.5 Domestic public debt outstanding: China, 1895-1949
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Table 8.1 Debt ratios at the time of default: Selected episodes
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Table 8.2 Inflation and domestic debt: Selected episodes, 1917-1994
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Chapter 9
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Figure 9.1 Real GDP before, during, and after domestic and external debt crises, 1800-2008
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Figure 9.2 Domestic and external debt crises and GDP, 1800-2008
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Figure 9.3 Consumer prices before, during, and after domestic and external debt crises, 1800-2008
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Figure 9.4 Domestic and external debt crises and inflation, 1800-2008
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Figure 9.5 Who is expropriated, residents or foreigners? The probability of domestic and external default, 1800-2008
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Figure 9.6 The composite probability of domestic default as a share of the total probability of default, 1800-2008
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Table 9.1 Output and inflation around and during debt crises
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Table 9.2 Who gets expropriated, residents or foreigners?
Preliminary tests for the equality of two proportions (Binomial distribution), 1800-2006
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Chapter 10
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Figure 10.1 Capital mobility and the incidence of banking crises: All countries, 1800-2008
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Figure 10.2 Equity prices and banking crises: Forty episodes in emerging markets, 1920-2007
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Figure 10.3 The number of banks in the Unites States, 1900-1945
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Figure 10.4 Real GDP growth per capita (PPP basis) and banking crises: Advanced economies
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Figure 10.5 Real GDP growth per capita (PPP basis) and banking crises: Emerging market economies (112 episodes)
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Figure 10.6 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: All countries, 1800-1944
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Figure 10.7 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: All countries, 1945-2007
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Figure 10.8 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: Advanced economies, 1815-2007
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Figure 10.9 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: Emerging market economies, 1873-2007
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Figure 10.10 The evolution of debt following major postwar crises: Advanced and emerging markets
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Table 10.1 Debt and banking crises: Africa and Asia, year of independence to 2008
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Table 10.2 Debt and banking crises: Europe, Latin America, North America, and Oceania, year of independence to 2008
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Table 10.3 Frequency of banking crises: Africa and Asia, through 2008
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Table 10.4 Frequency of banking crises: Europe, Latin America, North America, and Oceania, through 2008
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Table 10.5 Summary of the incidence and frequency of banking crises, 1800 (or year of independence) to 2008
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Table 10.6 Summary of the incidence and frequency of banking crises, 1945 (or year of independence) to 2008
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Table 10.7 The effect of a capital flow bonanza on the probability of a banking crisis in a sixty-six country sample, 1960-2007
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Table 10.8 Cycles of real housing prices and banking crises
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Table 10.9 Creative accounting? Bailout costs of banking crises
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Chapter 11
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Figure 11.1 Changes in the silver content of the currency: Austria and Russia during the Napoleonic Wars, 1799-1815
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Figure 11.2 The march toward fiat money, Europe, 1400-1850: The average silver content of ten currencies
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Table 11.1 Expropriation through currency debasement: Europe, 1258-1799
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Table 11.2 Expropriation through currency debasement: Europe, nineteenth century
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Chapter 12
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Figure 12.1 The median inflation rate: Five-year moving average for all countries, 1500-2000
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Figure 12.2 The incidence of annual inflation above 20 percent: Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America, 1800-2000
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Figure 12.3 Currency crashes: The share of countries with annual depreciation rates greater than 15 percent,1800-2000
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Figure 12.4 Median annual depreciation: Five-year moving average for all countries, 1800-2000
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Figure 12.5 The persistence of dollarization top panel bottom panel
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Figure 12.6 The de-dollarization of bank deposits: Israel, Poland, Mexico, and Pakistan, 1980-2002
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Table 12.1 "Default" through inflation: Asia, Europe, and the "New World," 1500-1799
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Table 12.2 "Default" through inflation: Africa and Asia, 1800-2008
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Table 12.3 "Default" through inflation: Europe, Latin America, North America, and Oceania, 1800-2008
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Chapter 13
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Figure 13.1 The proportion of countries with banking crises, 1900-2008, weighted by their share of world income
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Figure 13.2 Real housing prices: United States, 1891-2008
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Figure 13.3 Real housing prices and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies
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Figure 13.4 Real equity prices and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies
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Figure 13.5 Ratio of current account balance to GDP on the eve of postwar banking crises: Advanced economies
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Figure 13.6 Growth in real per capita GDP (PPP basis) and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies
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Figure 13.7 Real central government debt and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies
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Table 13.1 Post-World War II bank-centered financial crises in advanced economies
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Chapter 14
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Figure 14.1 Cycles of past and ongoing real house prices and banking crises
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Figure 14.2 Cycles of past and ongoing real equity prices and banking crises
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Figure 14.3 Cycles of past unemployment and banking crises
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Figure 14.4 Cycles of past real per capita GDP and banking crises
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Figure 14.5 The cumulative increase in real public debt in the three years following past banking crises
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Figure 14.6 Cycles of Institutional Investor Sovereign ratings and past banking crises
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Figure 14.7 The duration of major financial crises:
Fourteen Great Depression episodes versus fourteen post-World War II episodes
(Duration of the fall in output per capita)
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Figure 14.8 The duration of major financial crises:
Fourteen Great Depression episodes versus fourteen post-World War II episodes
(number of years for output per capita toreturn to its pre-crisis level)
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Figure 14.9 The cumulative increase in real public debt three and six years
following the onset of the Great Depression in 1929: Selected countries
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Table 14.1 Fiscal deficits as a percentage of GDP
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Chapter 15
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Figure 15.1 Percentage change in real housing prices, 2002-2006
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Table 15.1 Global banking crises, 1890-2008: Contagion or common fundamentals?
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243
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Chapter 16
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Figure 16.1 The proportion of countries with systemic banking crises (weighted by their share of world income)
and U.S. corporate speculative-grade default rates, 1919-2008
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252
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Figure 16.2 Varieties of crises: World aggregate, 1900-2008
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Figure 16.3 Varieties of crises: Advanced economies aggregate, 1900-2008
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Figure 16.4 Varieties of crises: Africa, 1900-2008
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Figure 16.5 Varieties of crises: Asia, 1800-2008
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Figure 16.6 Varieties of crises: Latin America, 1800-2008
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Figure 16.7 Global stock markets during global crises: The composite real stock price index
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Figure 16.8 Real per capita GDP during global financial crises: Multicountry aggregates (PPP weighted)
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Figure 16.9 The contracting spiral of world trade month by month, January 1929-June 1933
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Figure 16.10 World export growth, 1928-2009
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Figure 16.11 The collapse of exports, 1929-1932
Figure 16.12 The sequencing of crises: A prototype
Table 16.1 Indexes of total building activity in selected countries
Table 16.2 Unemployment rates for selected countries, 1929-1932
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Chapter 17
Figure 17.1 Change in Institutional Investor Credit Ratings of sixty-six countries, 1979-2008
Table 17.1 Early warning indicators of banking and currency crises:A summary
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Table 17.2 Institutional Investor ratings of sixty-six countries: Upgrade or demotion, 1979-2008
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267
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271
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268
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69
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288
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280
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HARVARD