13 days
until the Dec. debate
333 days
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Each week, The Times is bringing you the latest political data and analysis to track how the 15 Democratic presidential candidates are doing and who is breaking out of the pack in the historic race for the 2020 nomination.

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Current State of the Race

Qualified for the December debate*
National polling averagePolling Average
Individual contributions†Individual contrib.†
Weekly news coverageWeekly media
26% $37.6m #1
16% $49.8m #2
16% $61.5m #5
12% $51.5m #4
3% $15.1m #11
3% $13.9m #9
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
2% #3
2% $15.5m #7
1% $2.0m #6
1% $7.6m #12
Michael BennetBennet
< 1% $4.9m #13
< 1% $6.5m #10
John DelaneyDelaney
< 1% $2.4m #13
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
< 1% $6.1m #15
Deval PatrickPatrick
0% #8
Dropped out Dec. 3
Steve BullockBullock
Dropped out Dec. 2
Joe SestakSestak
Dropped out Dec. 1
Wayne MessamMessam
Dropped out Nov. 20
Dropped out Nov. 1
Tim RyanRyan
Dropped out Oct. 24
Bill de Blasiode Blasio
Dropped out Sept. 20
Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
Dropped out Aug. 28
Seth MoultonMoulton
Dropped out Aug. 23
Jay InsleeInslee
Dropped out Aug. 21
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
Dropped out Aug. 15
Eric SwalwellSwalwell
Dropped out July 8
+ View all candidates
* Meets polling and donor thresholds set by the Democratic National Committee.
† Campaign finance data through Sept. 30.
Arrows show recent changes in value or rank.

Here’s the latest.

Dec. 6, 2019

The good news for Joseph R. Biden Jr.: He remains the Democratic front-runner. Elizabeth Warren’s September surge has evaporated and no one else is close to overtaking him. The Democratic field is as fractured as it has been in months.

The bad news for Mr. Biden: He needs it to stay fractured. Mr. Biden is steady in the mid-20s but he has not gained support in the polls since Labor Day. And his numbers are weaker in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The underlying dynamics of the race have not changed all that much since the early summer. Mr. Biden has a solid coalition of older voters, particularly African-Americans and less educated whites, while a majority of the party is divided between his younger or more liberal rivals. One candidate after another has caught a wave of support without ultimately toppling Mr. Biden from his leading position — first Kamala Harris (who dropped out of the race this week), then Ms. Warren, now Pete Buttigieg.

But Mr. Biden’s tenacity is about to be put to its most strenuous test, as the Democratic field narrows abruptly. Ms. Harris’s surprise withdrawal was a powerful concession by a once-prominent candidate that the race has reached a merciless new stage in which fewer candidates have the resources to compete — and Democratic voters will have fewer serious options to consider.

The challenge for Mr. Biden will be to expand his support as voting nears. Locking down a quarter of the party has been enough to make him a leading candidate in a jumbled race with overflowing debate stages. It may not be enough to sustain his position in a race with fewer than half a dozen serious candidates, three of whom have a credible path to victory in most of the early states.

For Ms. Warren, Mr. Buttigieg and Mr. Sanders, the next phase of the race is about gaining an advantage in as many of those leadoff states as possible, to build the kind of momentum that would allow them to dispatch Mr. Biden on Super Tuesday. All three have imposing financial and organizational strengths, but so far they have kept each other in check by dividing up the bulk of Democrats who are not sold on Mr. Biden.

The campaign is now a battle for survival for other candidates, like Cory Booker, who faces elimination from the December debate stage. And looming in the distance is Michael Bloomberg, whose spending has transformed the financial picture of the race but who is not yet registering substantially in national polls.

— Alexander Burns

Data through Dec. 5

Who Is Leading the Polls?

National polls are a flawed tool for predicting elections. That’s even truer in a primary that will unfold in stages, with one or several states voting at a time. But the broad national picture is still important, offering a sense of which candidates are gaining support overall.

Candidate polling average

Individual polls shown on hover

Individual polls shown on tap

Latest National Polls

Pollster Date Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg Yang
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac Nov. 21-25 24 14 13 16 2
Nov. 21-24 28 14 17 11 3
MonmouthMonmouth Oct. 30 - Nov. 3 23 23 20 9 3
ABC News/Washington PostABC News/
Washington Post
Oct. 27-30 28 23 17 9 2
Fox NewsFox News Oct. 27-30 31 21 19 7 3
The New York Times polling averages use pollsters approved by the D.N.C. for debate inclusion requirements. Polls conducted more recently and polls with a larger sample size are given greater weight in computing the averages. Data is for registered voters or likely voters, depending on the poll. See the full list of D.N.C.-approved pollsters here.

Remember, political fortunes can shift rapidly in a national campaign.

On Dec. 6 in previous election cycles ...

Primary Polling leader Eventual nominee?
2016 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2016 Republicans Donald J. Trump
2012 Republicans Newt Gingrich
2008 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2008 Republicans Rudy Giuliani
Source: RealClearPolitics

We are keeping an eye on state-level polling, too, especially in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Latest Polls in Early Voting States

S.C. Nov. 13-17 Iowa Nov. 8-13 N.H. Nov. 6-13 Nev. Nov. 6-13
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
33 15 22 33
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
13 16 31 21
Bernie SandersSanders
11 15 20 23
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
6 25 16 9
Andrew YangYang
4 3 1 1
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
1 6 3 2
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
Cory BookerBooker
2 3 1 2
Tom SteyerSteyer
5 3 1 2
Julián CastroCastro
0 0 0 1
Michael BennetBennet
0 1 0 0
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
1 3 0 0
John DelaneyDelaney
0 0 0 0
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
1 0 0 0
Deval PatrickPatrick
+ View all candidates
Sources: Quinnipiac (South Carolina poll), Des Moines Register/CNN (Iowa poll), CBS News/YouGov (New Hampshire, Nevada polls)
Data through Sept. 30

Who Is Leading the Money Race?

Presidential campaigns are expensive, and candidates’ ability to compete often depends on their prowess at collecting large sums of money. Candidates used to focus on courting a few thousand wealthy individuals; many now spend more time raising money in small increments from millions of people online.

These statistics show which candidates are inspiring financial enthusiasm, either from a cluster of deep-pocketed donors or from a larger army of supporters. We only get an occasional glimpse at these numbers, however, since candidates file fund-raising reports on a quarterly basis. See full fundraising numbers here »

Bernie SandersSanders
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
Andrew YangYang
Cory BookerBooker
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
Julián CastroCastro
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
Michael BennetBennet
Tom SteyerSteyer
John DelaneyDelaney
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
Deval PatrickPatrick
+ View all candidates
Source: Federal Election Commission ·Candidates in the chart without donation numbers joined the race after the financial disclosure reporting deadline. Current numbers are as of Sept. 30. The next filing deadline is Jan. 31.
Data through Dec. 4

Who Is Getting News Coverage?

A candidate’s ability to make news and draw the attention of voters — and cameras — is a major asset in any campaign. This statistic tracks which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the wider media.

Being talked about isn’t always a good thing: It can also mean a candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information from his or her past.

Total Mentions in 2019

Fox News
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
Bernie SandersSanders
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
Cory BookerBooker
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
Julián CastroCastro
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
Tom SteyerSteyer
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
Andrew YangYang
John DelaneyDelaney
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
Michael BennetBennet
Deval PatrickPatrick
+ View all candidates
Source: Internet Archive's Television News Archive via the GDELT Project. ·Mentions are the number of 15-second clips in which a candidate’s full name is mentioned on any of the three cable news networks. A more detailed methodology can be found here.

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Key Dates

Dec. 19 Sixth primary debate
Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses
July 13-16 Democratic National Convention
Nov. 3 Election Day