6 days
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326 days
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Each week, The Times is bringing you the latest political data and analysis to track how the 15 Democratic presidential candidates are doing and who is breaking out of the pack in the historic race for the 2020 nomination.

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Current State of the Race

Qualified for the December debate*
National polling averagePolling Average
Individual contributions†Individual contrib.†
Weekly news coverageWeekly media
27% $37.6m #1
17% $61.5m #4
16% $49.8m #3
10% $51.5m #2
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
4% #4
3% $13.9m #8
3% $15.1m #11
2% $15.5m #6
1% $2.0m #7
1% $7.6m #9
< 1% $6.5m #10
Michael BennetBennet
< 1% $4.9m #13
John DelaneyDelaney
< 1% $2.4m #14
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
< 1% $6.1m #15
Deval PatrickPatrick
< 1% #12
Dropped out Dec. 3
Steve BullockBullock
Dropped out Dec. 2
Joe SestakSestak
Dropped out Dec. 1
Wayne MessamMessam
Dropped out Nov. 20
Dropped out Nov. 1
Tim RyanRyan
Dropped out Oct. 24
Bill de Blasiode Blasio
Dropped out Sept. 20
Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
Dropped out Aug. 28
Seth MoultonMoulton
Dropped out Aug. 23
Jay InsleeInslee
Dropped out Aug. 21
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
Dropped out Aug. 15
Eric SwalwellSwalwell
Dropped out July 8
+ View all candidates
* Meets polling and donor thresholds set by the Democratic National Committee.
† Campaign finance data through Sept. 30.
Arrows show recent changes in value or rank.

Here’s the latest.

Dec. 13, 2019

Two small but important shifts have taken place in our polling average over the last week: Bernie Sanders has overtaken Elizabeth Warren to claim second place. And Michael R. Bloomberg has begun to register in the national polls.

When we say the shifts are small, it is because they truly are. Mr. Sanders has gained very incrementally, while Mr. Bloomberg has jumped from nowhere to a 4 percent average in national polls. The other leading candidates — Ms. Warren, Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Pete Buttigieg — have held more or less steady.

Still, these developments look like more than random wobbling in national polls. By overtaking Ms. Warren by even the slightest margin, Mr. Sanders appears to have solidified his political recovery, dispatching the speculation from early in the fall, after his heart attack, that his candidacy might disintegrate altogether. And he appears to be stronger in the early states, vying for first place in Iowa and New Hampshire and seemingly competitive in Nevada, where polling has been sparser.

By amassing some meaningful support in the national polls so quickly, Mr. Bloomberg has shown the power of his wealth and large-scale advertising. The message he is delivering on television and online has plainly found an audience, even if it is a modest one so far. It may not be a coincidence that Mr. Buttigieg’s rise in national polls leveled off just as Mr. Bloomberg — a mayor with appeal to political moderates — began bombarding the airwaves.

The overall picture of the race, however, is defined more by continuity than disruption. Mr. Biden remains the leading candidate, still holding about a quarter of the primary vote, neither losing support nor gaining any for months now. But his ability to defend that position during the December and January debates, and then withstand tough challenges in the early primary and caucus states, is a huge question mark.

It may not be too late for one of the underdog candidates to catch up, but it would likely take a standout finish in Iowa or New Hampshire. There is a lot of buzz about Amy Klobuchar in Iowa at the moment, though she is behind even Mr. Bloomberg in the national polls. She has delivered a series of strong debate performances and could have something to gain if she does so again in Los Angeles next week.

— Alexander Burns

Data through Dec. 12

Who Is Leading the Polls?

National polls are a flawed tool for predicting elections. That’s even truer in a primary that will unfold in stages, with one or several states voting at a time. But the broad national picture is still important, offering a sense of which candidates are gaining support overall.

Candidate polling average

Individual polls shown on hover

Individual polls shown on tap

Latest National Polls

Pollster Date Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Bloomberg
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac Dec. 4-9 29 17 15 9 5
MonmouthMonmouth Dec. 4-8 26 21 17 8 5
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac Nov. 21-25 24 13 14 16 3
CNN/SSRSCNN/
SSRS
Nov. 21-24 28 17 14 11 3
MonmouthMonmouth Oct. 30 - Nov. 3 23 20 23 9
The New York Times polling averages use pollsters approved by the D.N.C. for debate inclusion requirements. Polls conducted more recently and polls with a larger sample size are given greater weight in computing the averages. Data is for registered voters or likely voters, depending on the poll. See the full list of D.N.C.-approved pollsters here.

Remember, political fortunes can shift rapidly in a national campaign.

On Dec. 13 in previous election cycles ...

Primary Polling leader Eventual nominee?
2016 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2016 Republicans Donald J. Trump
2012 Republicans Newt Gingrich
2008 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2008 Republicans Rudy Giuliani
Source: RealClearPolitics

We are keeping an eye on state-level polling, too, especially in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Latest Polls in Early Voting States

S.C. Nov. 13-17 Iowa Nov. 8-13 N.H. Nov. 6-13 Nev. Nov. 6-13
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
33 15 22 33
Bernie SandersSanders
11 15 20 23
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
13 16 31 21
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
6 25 16 9
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
2
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
1 6 3 2
Andrew YangYang
4 3 1 1
Cory BookerBooker
2 3 1 2
Tom SteyerSteyer
5 3 1 2
Julián CastroCastro
0 0 0 1
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
1 3 0 0
Michael BennetBennet
0 1 0 0
John DelaneyDelaney
0 0 0 0
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
1 0 0 0
Deval PatrickPatrick
0
+ View all candidates
Sources: Quinnipiac (South Carolina poll), Des Moines Register/CNN (Iowa poll), CBS News/YouGov (New Hampshire, Nevada polls)
Data through Sept. 30

Who Is Leading the Money Race?

Presidential campaigns are expensive, and candidates’ ability to compete often depends on their prowess at collecting large sums of money. Candidates used to focus on courting a few thousand wealthy individuals; many now spend more time raising money in small increments from millions of people online.

These statistics show which candidates are inspiring financial enthusiasm, either from a cluster of deep-pocketed donors or from a larger army of supporters. We only get an occasional glimpse at these numbers, however, since candidates file fund-raising reports on a quarterly basis. See full fundraising numbers here »

Contributions,
July-Sept.
Contributions,
July-Sept.
Contributions,
April-June
Contributions,
April-June
Bernie SandersSanders
$25.2m
$18.0m
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
$24.6m
$19.2m
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
$19.1m
$24.9m
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
$15.7m
$22.0m
Andrew YangYang
$9.9m
$2.8m
Cory BookerBooker
$6.0m
$4.5m
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
$4.8m
$3.9m
Julián CastroCastro
$3.5m
$2.8m
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
$3.1m
$1.5m
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
$3.0m
$1.6m
Michael BennetBennet
$2.1m
$2.8m
Tom SteyerSteyer
$2.0m
John DelaneyDelaney
$0.5m
$0.3m
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
Deval PatrickPatrick
+ View all candidates
Source: Federal Election Commission ·Candidates in the chart without donation numbers joined the race after the financial disclosure reporting deadline. Current numbers are as of Sept. 30. The next filing deadline is Jan. 31.
Data through Dec. 11

Who Is Getting News Coverage?

A candidate’s ability to make news and draw the attention of voters — and cameras — is a major asset in any campaign. This statistic tracks which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the wider media.

Being talked about isn’t always a good thing: It can also mean a candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information from his or her past.

Total Mentions in 2019

CNN
Fox News
MSNBC
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
66,887
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
25,563
Bernie SandersSanders
24,126
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
9,140
Cory BookerBooker
7,487
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
3,642
Julián CastroCastro
2,667
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
2,604
Tom SteyerSteyer
2,143
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
2,060
Andrew YangYang
1,528
John DelaneyDelaney
858
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
612
Michael BennetBennet
572
Deval PatrickPatrick
526
+ View all candidates
Source: Internet Archive's Television News Archive via the GDELT Project. ·Mentions are the number of 15-second clips in which a candidate’s full name is mentioned on any of the three cable news networks. A more detailed methodology can be found here.

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Key Dates

2019
Dec. 19 Sixth primary debate
2020
Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses
July 13-16 Democratic National Convention
Nov. 3 Election Day